08-09-2012, 10:17 PM #1
Article: Why Minnesota Twins' Scott Diamond Continues to Shine
You can view the page at http://twinsdaily.com/content.php?90...inues-to-Shine@OverTheBaggy
08-09-2012, 10:28 PM #2
I really think he has the makeup and will have the success that Mark Buerhle had in his prime. I really can't see him posting an ERA over 4 for a season.
08-09-2012, 10:57 PM #3
About the only 3rd starter type the Twins have any luck with as of late. I like how he cuts his fastball forcing righties to respect that part of the zone which also reminds me of Buerhle. I think that as much as anything is his key to pitching so well.
08-09-2012, 11:02 PM #4
As usual, very fine technical analysis from Parker. My only quibble is comment about run support. While I don't doubt the number, I do know Diamond was on the hill for both of the Twins biggest explosions this year--19 runs vs. the Orioles and 14 in Cleveland. Take out those blowouts and Diamond's support isn't quite as impressive. I'm sure most quality starters, Diamond included, would settle for five runs every start rather than getting 14 and 19 and then getting two or less a number of times. I checked the records and in the six games that Diamond started and the Twins lost, the team scored 0, 1, 2, 3, 3, and 2, that is 11 runs in six games.
08-09-2012, 11:31 PM #5
08-10-2012, 05:53 AM #6I do know Diamond was on the hill for both of the Twins biggest explosions this year--19 runs vs. the Orioles and 14 in Cleveland. Take out those blowouts and Diamond's support isn't quite as impressive.
And, again, there's an element of "luck" at play there considering, in the 19-run outburst, he allowed 5 runs.
08-10-2012, 07:44 AM #7
08-10-2012, 07:50 AM #8
In any case, I'll take it. The Twins badly needed a guy to step up in the rotation and Scott looks to be that guy for a few years.
08-10-2012, 08:56 AM #9
if it's sustainable, I'll take it... Keep in mind that while his velo is nothing special (low 90s from what I understand) that is coming from a lefty, not a right hander. That does make a bit of a difference as well.
08-10-2012, 09:21 AM #10
Expected Runs Allowed=(((9-X)/9)*Y+Z)
X=Starter's IP in that game
Z=Starter's Earned Runs in that game
Below are the xWL for all Twins starting pitchers this year
Thus, the only Twins pitchers that have consistently given the team a chance to win are Diamond, DeVries, Walters, and Deduno. Every other starter was more likely to not keep the team in the game.
08-10-2012, 09:26 AM #11
Tell me why we aren't seeing another Brian Duensing situation here? Looked really good his first run through the league. Once everybody saw him, he regressed. Duensing is a good arm for the pen and some spot starts,but I wouldn't want to count on him in the rotation for an exgtended period. I have a feeling this is closer to the real Diamond.
08-10-2012, 09:34 AM #12
Good research (and yes, there is an Expected Wins stat already). I wasn't trying to contest that he would have lost any of those starts he had this year -- after all, he's allowed over 4 runs in just one of his starts. The idea is that if his ERA does go up to 4-ish (which, based on the xFIP and his very high DP rate of 22%, it will likely creep northward) and his run support drops to close to the league's average of 4.4, then the record next year will probably not be as impressive as it is this year.
08-10-2012, 09:55 AM #13
And runs allowed do not tell the story really. That dropped ball by Nishioka the other day was called a double and went on the pitcher's record. Nuts.
As far as Diamond goes, one of the major changes this season from last is his drastic decrease in BB/9. I think he leads the league or is close to it in that stat. His K/9 is just 4.9, which is even below Brad Radke's career average mark. If he gets his K/9 up to 6-7 (where De Vries' is, btw) it would be great. At least he is one of the hopeful signs of the 2012 season.-----
Blogging Twins since 2007 at The Tenth Inning Stretch
08-10-2012, 10:08 AM #14
Diamond, on the other hand, is getting shelled against lefties, which is incredibly odd and not likely to hold as the sample size grows.
08-10-2012, 10:18 AM #15
08-10-2012, 11:27 AM #16
I thought this was interesting, when I looked up the Swinging Strike rankings on Fangraphs:
Jason Vargas- 7.2%
Mark Buehrle- 7.2%
Wandy Rodriguez- 7.1%
Scott Diamond- 7.0%
Randy Wolf- 7.0%
Joe Saunders- 6.9%
Paul Maholm- 6.8%
Clayton Richard- 6.8%
I omitted a couple righties in there but this group of finesse left-handers stands out towards the bottom of the rankings, since generally they have done pretty well. The downside with these guys is that the margin for error is low and they are very dependent on their defense (and ballpark). Missing of course are the countless finesse lefties that haven't been able to sustain success or achieve any in the first place. Diamond has been a very pleasant surprise but it's hard to say exactly what he is at this point.
08-10-2012, 11:32 AM #17
08-10-2012, 11:48 AM #18
Why do they continue with this proven and obviously pre-destined to fail strategy in a losing season, when you have nothing to lose seeing what Vasquez and any one of the "4H'ers" readily available (Hendriks, Hernandez, Hermsen, Hirschfield) have to offer?
08-10-2012, 11:52 AM #19
Where has Nick insisted that Duensing is starting material?"Maybe you could go grab a bat and ball… and learn something. Maybe you will get it."
- Strib commenter educating the elitists on the value of RBI's
08-10-2012, 11:58 AM #20