Thread: What would the return be on Revere?

Whoops. I was late and a post got in between. My response was to Steve and Brock.

Originally Posted by Buck Nasty

Players don't peak at age 24. If he had repeated levels in the minors (as many players do), he likely would have posted higher OPS during a repeated year. Again, I point to the year over year improvement - this year to last. Continued improvement won't come in the form of adding points to his BA. It will come from taking more walks, and hopefully more gap power. He's never going to be a high OPS guy. But .750+ with his defensive range = pretty good player.

Absolutely. Revere with a .750 OPS looks really good up the middle. On a corner, not so much. Still acceptable but not the best use of his skill set.

I'm not sure how much room Revere has to grow (it all depends on whether turns into Denard with some gap power or whether he stays a Jamey Carroll type player) but I'm sure we will see some improvement in slugging as he develops. The only questions I have are (1)Will he learn to take a walk and (2)How high can he keep his BABIP. Those are the differences between a pretty decent Juan Pierre type player and one of the better leadoff guys in all of baseball.

^^... So why hasn't Span improved from his first 2 seasons, he was 24 to when he came up?! You're saying it like it's a foregone conclusion Revere will put up better numbers (or any player for that matter as they get older), you can not say that with the certainty I think you are intending. Like I mentioned previously, it's like you're expecting Revere to be a perennial .360/.400 hitter from next year on out, which is flat out impossible.

But I do agree, a .750 OPS guy with his range is absolutely a "pretty good player", but it's also not exactly an All-Star, and I'd wager a .750 OPS is closer to Revere's peak season during his career than it is to his career average-OPS when its all said and done.

Originally Posted by Steve Lein

^^... So why hasn't Span improved from his first 2 seasons, he was 24 to when he came up?! You're saying it like it's a foregone conclusion Revere will put up better numbers (or any player for that matter as they get older), you can not say that with the certainty I think you are intending. Like I mentioned previously, it's like you're expecting Revere to be a perennial .360/.400 hitter from next year on out, which is flat out impossible.

But I do agree, a .750 OPS guy with his range is absolutely a "pretty good player", but it's also not exactly an All-Star, and I'd wager a .750 OPS is closer to Revere's peak season during his career than it is to his career average-OPS when its all said and done.

Well, I think that pesky concussion thing might have had something to do with Span regressing. It's hard to hit/play well when you can't stand up straight. Read my post again. Nobody is expecting Revere to improve by adding points to his BA. But is it really unreasonable to believe that a 24 year old player won't get better at pitch selection? If he takes more walks he'll be fine. He's a contact hitter with speed. If he's hitting the right pitches, he'll get plenty of doubles. You don't have to be a HR hitter to post a decent OPS (see Mauer).

Span's OPS dropped from his rookie season before he had any concussions...

But regardless, to me, Revere's problem isn't pitch selection, which is why I don't see much improvement in OBP/OPS (will always be driven by his average).

My reasoning: He's actually pretty good at taking pitches I think, but he's also much better than most at making contact with the ball when he swings. Mauer is a great "hitter", right? Well, Mauer has K'd in 13.4% of his Plate Appearances this year. Revere? 8.0%. When he swings, he puts the ball in play. I am convinced if you looked it up (perhaps someone here knows how), Revere would have a very far below the league average swing-and-miss percentage. He doesn't foul that many balls off either. What I'm getting at, is if he swings, he is almost assuredly putting the ball out there for someone to have to field. If he wants to improve his OBP by drawing walks, he's going to have to leave that bat on his shoulder far more often than he is capable of, I think, because of this.

He's a great "contact hitter", which in his case, is a detriment to the On-base skills you're hoping he can develop.

Originally Posted by Steve Lein

^^... So why hasn't Span improved from his first 2 seasons, he was 24 to when he came up?! You're saying it like it's a foregone conclusion Revere will put up better numbers (or any player for that matter as they get older), you can not say that with the certainty I think you are intending. Like I mentioned previously, it's like you're expecting Revere to be a perennial .360/.400 hitter from next year on out, which is flat out impossible.

But I do agree, a .750 OPS guy with his range is absolutely a "pretty good player", but it's also not exactly an All-Star, and I'd wager a .750 OPS is closer to Revere's peak season during his career than it is to his career average-OPS when its all said and done.

If you read the thread, I'm doing everything but assuming that Revere will improve. I said his slugging will probably improve. That's probably true, as most players improve their slugging a bit as they approach their peak age. Will he start walking more? Will his BABIP drop? Those are the questions I raised when I started the thread.

Span is a special case. He suffered a concussion and moved to a stadium that's a tough sell for players like him. If he didn't have dizziness problems and still hit in the Metrodome, it's hard to say what kind of numbers he'd be posting today.

Brock - I've been responding to Buck, your points pretty much agree with mine in relation to his.

Originally Posted by Steve Lein

Brock - I've been responding to Buck, your points pretty much agree with mine in relation to his.

Use the Reply with Quote button, my man! It solves those types of problems...

And just an FYI in relation to Span in Metrodome vs. Target Field:

In 2009 (metrodome), in 145 games, Span had 34 XBH's. This year (Target Field), in 101 games, he has 34 XBH's (career high in 2B's already).

If I go park specific, in 2009 (Metrodome), in 73 games: 8 2B's, 6 3B's, 5 HR's. (.446 slugging)

In 2012 (Target Field), in 51 games: 20 2B's, 2 3B's, 2 HR's. (.502 slugging)

I'll take 2012 Span in TF over 2009 Span in Metrodome any day of the week...

And I'll keep the reply with quote in mind, I don't like clogging up my posts with them usually, though!

Originally Posted by Brock Beauchamp

Boggs, Carew, Cobb, and Brock all had OBP at least .050 higher than their BA (Boggs was .090 higher and only Brock was close to .050). Right now, Revere is sitting just .030 higher than his BA. That's what I mean by "riding a BABIP". If a guy is walking a lot, BABIP fluctuations don't hurt nearly as badly as if he's depending on that BABIP to get on base 95% of the time.

Revere will probably hit .300 no matter what. That's still pretty good. But the difference in a player like that getting on base 33% of the time versus 36% of the time or better is pretty significant.

From Fangraphs

Career BA/OBP/BABIP.....(OBP-BA differentials):

Boggs: 328/415/344 (+.087)
Cobb: 366/433/378 (+.067)
Carew: 328/393/359 (+.065)
Puckett: 318/360/342 (+.042)
Brock: 293/343/338 (+.040)

Revere: 288/327/316 (+.039)

First two seasons OBP-BA and BA/OBP

Revere: (.039) 288/327

Puckett: (.034) 292/326
Cobb: (.034) 337/371
Carew: (.045) 283/328
Brock: (.052) 263/319
Boggs: (.079) 356/435

BB% career/first 2 years

Boggs 13.1/11.3
Cobb 9.6/5.5
Carew 9.6/5.4
Brock 6.8/6.3
Puckett 5.7/4.2

Revere 5.1/5.1


Based on the numbers so far in his career, other's first two years in MLB- and with apologies to presumptuosuly making comparisons to 5 HOFers, how close is Revere to having a career leading to greatness- or leading to mediocrity?

Based on Revere's improvements this year in driving the ball much harder, hitting more gaps- sometimes more deeply- and by all appearances, more confidently and better handling of MLB pitching in general, can he at age 24, improve to a higher level in SLG (power production usually rises as a career continues) and OBP ( as demonstrated above, all of the above players improved their plate discipline and ability to draw more walks as their career continued, Cobb and Carew had very similar first two year BB rates to Revere- with the most dramatic % increase improvements in their overall BB% rate) and have a reasonable shot to end up at least close to the tail end (34-36% OBP) of the above HOFers' numbers?

Originally Posted by jokin

From Fangraphs

Career BA/OBP/BABIP.....(OBP-BA differentials):

Boggs: 328/415/344 (+.087)
Cobb: 366/433/378 (+.067)
Carew: 328/393/359 (+.065)
Puckett: 318/360/342 (+.042)
Brock: 293/343/338 (+.040)

Revere: 288/327/316 (+.039)

Your math is bad. Brock's ISO Discipline is .050 (like I said) and Revere has raised his ISO Discipline almost ten points in the last few days. We'll see if it holds.

Out of your list, that leaves Puckett. That's a pretty small list. No one is claiming that riding a high BABIP to the Hall of Fame is impossible. I'm only stating that it's incredibly unlikely.

And we shouldn't even be talking about Cobb. There's nothing worth comparing between a dead ball era player and a modern player. The game is completely different.