08-06-2012, 11:59 PM #1
Article: Morneau vs. The Void
You can view the page at http://twinsdaily.com/content.php?89...au-vs-The-Void
08-07-2012, 12:19 AM #2
It might be added that given the position of first base on the defensive spectrum, Morneau is really in competition any other bat. A team could sign Hamilton and then fill 1B internally by moving a player from another position.
In any case, there will be demand for Morneau. Starting pitching is such a valued asset, but the Twins must continue to demand it in return or keep Morneau.
08-07-2012, 06:37 AM #3
Finish out the year and then evaluate.
Morneau's been really good for the last month. Maybe it's just a 'good run' ... maybe it's a "return to form."
08-07-2012, 06:54 AM #4
I think the question here shouldn't be "what is currently available to other teams" but "what teams need a 1B AND can take on $14 million contract". If I am assessing the field, it would seem that the Dodgers/Rangers and maybe to a lesser extent Blue Jays/Orioles are the types of teams that will be in the market for Morneau.
08-07-2012, 07:27 AM #5
Right now, I say ride the Mornie train for as long as you can. If the Twins can pick up some decent starting pitching this off-season, there's no reason they can't compete with the Tigers and Sox by trotting out Span-Revere-Mauer-Willingham-Morneau-Plouffe-Doumit as their top 7 every day. Ideally, Mornie is his old self next year, and the Twins are back to being competitive. Runner-up scenario is Justin is good, but the team's not, and we flip him at the deadline for a huge haul.
08-07-2012, 07:28 AM #6
I'd say keep Morneau. I think if he does return to form, next year at the deadline he would be worth a lot, or we could try to extend him with a two-year deal if he keeps this up.
How much value does a Parmalee have with his killing the AAA leagues? Would the Pirates or Brewers be willing to give up a starter? Morneau probably can't get us a starter, but I bet you that Parmalee could.
08-07-2012, 07:28 AM #7
I'd assume that the Twins would have to pay some salary to get anything decent in return.
With that said, Morneau would be extremely tempting to other teams if he rakes for the rest of the season, hits another 7-10 dingers, and gets that OPS over .850. At that point, you can start arguing that the old Morneau is back.
08-07-2012, 08:33 AM #8
I'd like to see three conditions for the Twins to pull the trigger in the offseason.
1) They have a plan to do something with the money.
2) Parmelee continues to hit.
3) Someone is desperate enough to give something in return.
Otherwise, why not just wait until next year's trade deadline? It's a bit of a gamble but if he continues to hit and stays healthy his demand should be way up as he'd be a great addition for another team and $7m might be more palatable for a team looking at the playoffs.
08-07-2012, 08:47 AM #9
I think Morneau's highest value would come in the trade deadline next season.
Of course if you get an offer you can't refuse this off-season then trade him, but if he continues to hit well (I don't see why he won't) He could be back to a .850+ OPS, 25+ HR guy next season, an impact bat like that at the deadline next season could potentially bring back a Beltran like package.
Also, I think the Twins have a decent chance to compete in 2013, I don't think its a coincidence that once Morneau started hitting better this year the team started playing better overall.
I'd much rather trade Span this off-season since he could bring in a bigger haul, you can find at bats for Parmelee at RF and DH in that scenario.
Lastly, I like Morneau and he is one of my favorite Twins players ever, I'd personally hate to see him traded, especially for a salary dump type reason.
08-07-2012, 08:49 AM #10
yeah, short of trading span and letting Parmelee sit in right for a bit, I don't see how they can keep Morneau and Parmelee long term. Morneau is a fan favorite, and my personal favorite, but from a business standpoint, the Twins would be wise to flip him for pitching as I assume they would never flip a guy like Parmelee. By the end of the season, it should be fairly obvious if he's back, and with less money owed and a track record that states that he is a difference maker when healthy, I think some team would trade a nice pitching prospect for him.
08-07-2012, 09:22 AM #11
08-07-2012, 09:46 AM #12
I like JM, too, but we're debating whether he would be worth his 2013 salary to some team "if he continues to produce." Suggesting that he would bring a strong pitching prospect in addition to someone willing to pay his $13M 2013 salary is setting the bar too high. It's the reason we're all disappointed in the actual trades that occur - because not too many GMs are willing to give up a good prospect AND overpay (versus his FA value).
08-07-2012, 09:56 AM #13
I said this in an earlier thread too: This season Morneau has been an around 1 WAR guy. Will probably finish around 1.5-2 for the season. Next season if everything goes well, he will be a 2-3 WAR guy. Parmelee can easily cover at least half of that (realistic/pessimistic scenario, not optimistic. He had 1.3 WAR last season in a single month or so -WAR is an additive, not a rate stat btw; likely he will match it but I am not even going there). So, if the Twins can get a 2-3+ WAR SP either for Morneau or with his $14M for 2013, they will be ahead. This means that even if they get what they got for Valencia they will be ahead if they get a good pitcher with the cash...
Just math and who is available behind Morneau and what the needs of this club are...
Last edited by thrylos98; 08-07-2012 at 09:59 AM.
08-07-2012, 10:01 AM #14
Here's the thing, if Morneau is reasonably close to his old self, someone will do that, because 13M is a bargain. Had it not been for injuries in 2009 and 2010, Justin would have likely been in the MVP conversations, but between a cracked spine and a nasty concussion, he had pretty bad second halfs of those seasons, and then in 2011, he was obviously not back... For that matter, he struggled this spring as well. He's starting to hit lefties again, he's hitting with authority, and if he keeps that up for the remainder of the season, some team will give something up for him as he's put the injury issues behind him. Worst case is that Ryan has to wait till June/July to trade him.
08-07-2012, 10:03 AM #15
08-07-2012, 10:46 AM #16
Is Parmelee out of options??? If Parmelee can play at AAA we are good. Let Morneau play and build up trade value. Parmelee will arrive when Morneau is dealt or not re-signed to a contract. Or when Morneau, Willingham or Doumit are on the DL.
If Parmelee is out of options... and continues to hit at AAA. He could force the Twins hand to move Morneau before they should.
Is Parmelee out of options?
08-07-2012, 10:49 AM #17
The problem with holding him at AAA is that Chris is absolutely killing it in Rochester. The guy has posted an OPS of 1.150 (crikey!) with an OBP of .475 (double crikey!) after posting an OPS of over 1.000 in Minnesota last September. If he plays every day, he mashes the ball. You have to find a spot for a guy like that sooner rather than later.
08-07-2012, 10:56 AM #18
Yeah, Parmalee needs to be on this team. My guess is, though, it will be in RF next year with Span on his way out the door.
It's really a shame they don't have somewhere for him right now.
08-07-2012, 10:57 AM #19
It sounds like a sticky situation but it's a good problem to have. Parmelee increases our options... Not only Morneau but Doumit and Willingham are trading options because of his play.
Until then... I would not do anything to those 3 to decrease trade value. Moving Parmelee ahead of them would send the wrong message.
08-07-2012, 10:58 AM #20