What would the 25 man roster look like? What do you think?

This is just purely for fun, and I just want to see how wrong we can all be without a single Spring Training game played yet :D

So I am looking at your opinions about who will make the team, after I give you mine.

I think that the following are locks (alphabetically):

Position players (will carry 13 or 14) :
Jamey Caroll, Alexi Casilla, Ryan Doumit, Luke Hughes, Joe Mauer, Justin Morneau, Trevor Plouffe, Ben Revere, Denard Span, Danny Valencia, Josh Willingham
(I assume no DL for anyone - call me an optimist) so there are 2 or 3 spots left.

Pitchers (will carry 11 or 12) :

Scott Baker, Nick Blackburn, Matt Capps, Brian Duensing, Francisco Liriano, Jason Marquis, Carl Pavano, Glen Perkins, Anthony Swarzak, Joel Zumaya

so there is space for 1 or 2.

Here are my guesses: They will go with 13 position players and 12 pitchers.
The position players who will make the team are Aaron Bates and Darin Mastroianni and the pitchers who make the team are Terry Doyle and Alex Burnett.

What do you think?

Lineup:

Span CF
Carroll SS
Mauer C
Morneau 1B
Willingham RF
Doumit DH
Valencia 3B
Casilla 2B
Revere LF

Bench: Plouff, Nishi, Butera, Hughes (Burroughs if Hughes starts on DL)

Rotation: Pavano-Liriano-Marquis-Baker-Blackburn
Bullpen: Capps-Perk-Zumaya-Duensing-Swarzak-Burnett-Doyle

I'd love to see Oliveros, Gray or Vazquez in the bullpen as a power arm to compliment Zumaya, but that seems unlikely. With Swarzak out of options, and Doyle a rule 5 guy (hard to see the Chi Sox being a willing trade partner) Burnett's spot probably is the only one that can be lost, and for whatever reason the Twins still seem to love him. Of course Morneau could be unable to play, and if he's ruled out during ST I think Parmalee breaks camp with the club and hits 6th with Willingham and Doumit moving up to the 4 and 5 spots.

Starting Pitching:
S.Baker, F.Liriano, C.Pavano, J.Marquis, N.Blackburn
Bullpen:
M.Capps, G.Perkins, J.Zumaya, B.Duensing, A.Swarzak, J.Manship
Positions:
J.Mauer, J.Morneau, T.Nishioka, D.Valencia, J.Carroll, B.Revere, D.Span, J.Willingham
Bench:
R.Doumit, L.Hughes, T.Plouffe, A.Casilla

I certainly am hoping to see Alex Burnett deeply rooted in Rochester this year. I think Jeff Manship as well as a slew of others are far more capable. I didn't say talented. I said capable. Burnett should be better than he performs. I think his attitude is garbage. Watch how different of a pitcher he is based on the situation. If the game is out of hand or WELL in hand, he doesn't care, mails it in. Watch his demeanor. I'd like to see Doyle be one of our first, recent rule 5 non-drop outs. That might make this more of a wishlist, but I think it'll shake-rattle-roll something like this.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Haddyz

Starting Pitching:
S.Baker, F.Liriano, C.Pavano, J.Marquis, N.Blackburn
Bullpen:
M.Capps, G.Perkins, J.Zumaya, B.Duensing, A.Swarzak, J.Manship
Positions:
J.Mauer, J.Morneau, T.Nishioka, D.Valencia, J.Carroll, B.Revere, D.Span, J.Willingham
Bench:
R.Doumit, L.Hughes, T.Plouffe, A.Casilla
.

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That's 23 ;) need to add a couple more

Thrylos,

I don't think I agree with your "locks". I doubt if Hughes is a lock, even assuming good health for him and everyone else. Even if Morneau is healthy, they might want to limit his time at first base, which would open the door for someone other than Hughes. While Nishioka is not a lock, he is more likely than Hughes and could end up as a starter or co-starter at SS or 2b. I do not consider Plouffe a lock either. The Twins probably don't want to lose him, but he will have to prove he can play the outfield, and show some indication he will hit better than last year. If he doesn't, the Twins might risk losing him in order get him some seasoning as an outfielder at AAA.

Zumaya is definitely not a lock, he has to be healthy, regain his velocity, and show at least a little control. I don't really have much of an opinion on who the Twins will actually take to begin the season. I kind of think they might put Burnett at AAA to give him some confidence and a regular role at the end of games. I think Burroughs could be a good fit, but at this point I wouldn't be to sure he won't start at AAA. I kind of like Mastroianni's chance too, but they would be better if the Twins went with a 11 man pitching staff to start the season.

STARTERS
C: Joe Mauer
1B: Justin Morneau
2B: Alexi Casilla
3B: Danny Valencia
SS: Jamey Carroll
LF: Ben Revere
CF: Denard Span
RF: Josh Willingham
DH: Ryan Doumit

BENCH
C: Drew Butera
IF: Luke Hughes
IF: Tsuyoshi Nishioka
OF: Trevor Plouffe

ROTATION
SP: Carl Pavano
SP: Francisco Liriano
SP: Scott Baker
SP: Nick Blackburn
SP: Jason Marquis

BULLPEN
RP: Matt Capps
RP: Glen Perkins
RP: Joel Zumaya
RP: Brian Duensing
RP: Anthony Swarzak
RP: Alex Burnett
RP: Terry Doyle

Haddyz, I'd go easy on Burnett. He's still only 24, and pretty much skipped Triple-A entirely. For comparison, Pat Neshek and Matt Guerrier didn't make theirs major-league debuts until they were 25. Whatever Burnett's flaws, he's young enough to overcome them, and he's certainly got some decent stuff. Taking his lumps at the big-league level over the past couple seasons may ultimately benefit him in the long-term.

This is correct.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Nick Nelson

Haddyz, I'd go easy on Burnett. He's still only 24, and pretty much skipped Triple-A entirely. For comparison, Pat Neshek and Matt Guerrier didn't make theirs major-league debuts until they were 25. Whatever Burnett's flaws, he's young enough to overcome them, and he's certainly got some decent stuff. Taking his lumps at the big-league level over the past couple seasons may ultimately benefit him in the long-term.

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Exactly. And if anyone looks at Burnett's New Britain numbers before he was rushed, would have to agree

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Nick Nelson

STARTERS
C: Joe Mauer
1B: Justin Morneau
2B: Alexi Casilla
3B: Danny Valencia
SS: Jamey Carroll
LF: Ben Revere
CF: Denard Span
RF: Josh Willingham
DH: Ryan Doumit

BENCH
C: Drew Butera
IF: Luke Hughes
IF: Tsuyoshi Nishioka
OF: Trevor Plouffe

ROTATION
SP: Carl Pavano
SP: Francisco Liriano
SP: Scott Baker
SP: Nick Blackburn
SP: Jason Marquis

BULLPEN
RP: Matt Capps
RP: Glen Perkins
RP: Joel Zumaya
RP: Brian Duensing
RP: Anthony Swarzak
RP: Alex Burnett
RP: Terry Doyle

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I agree with this line-up and by reading it, I am becoming more optimistic and excited to watch. I hope all the 'what ifs' happen and we surprise some teams just like Denard said.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by wblmayo24

I agree with this line-up and by reading it, I am becoming more optimistic and excited to watch. I hope all the 'what ifs' happen and we surprise some teams just like Denard said.

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Do they have to be current members of the organization?

Nick's roster is definitely the most likely scenario, probably by far. There is a difference between what it will be and what it should be, though. Assuming total health, only Nishioka, Burnett, and Swarzak are up for debate. Luke Hughes does provide a RH bat and adequate infield defense at three positions. I would prefer Burroughs or Carson instead of Nishioka at the beginning of the season because I think Nishioka needs to play every day and he provides so little beyond speed right now. 2011 was a year of bad promotions for the most part, in my view. Burnett and Tosoni, being legitimate prospects, should have been at Rochester. Chuck James and Aaron Bates could have been with the Twins instead for the same or better production in 2011 and without the weirdness that goes with promoting prospects to quickly. I would hope Burnett turns into a very good 7th inning guy. I wish the Twins would trade Swarzak now that is value has peaked for the last time. I highly doubt that he is going to be good in 2012 and he may not even prove to be adequate at all.

There is a legitimate concern that the following happens: Capps repeats 2011, Perkins turns into a pumpkin, Burnett founders again, Swarzak shows his true colors, Doyle demonstrates that he needs more polishing in the minors, and Zumaya's arm falls off. I trust Duensing to be an excellent LOOGY, but beyond that there are no guarantees. That is why it is very good that the Twins basically doubled the number of potential arms in the bullpen from 2011. If the horrible scenario above happens, Diamond, Oliveros, Maloney/Gray (only one will remain in the organization in April, methinks), Waldrop, Guerra, DeVries, Slama (yes, him!), Gutierrez, Burton, Bulger and others are there ready for a try.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by shanewahl

....Slama (yes, him!),.... and others are there ready for a try.

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Slama is not even in the Major League Camp this Spring Training... I think that his days with the organization are pretty much over for some reason, unfortunately...

I would think that if Morneau is limited in the field, that would actually give Hughes even MORE of a "lock" over butera, plouffe, or Nishi. He did play 36 games at 1b, compared to 37 at 2b and 13 at 3b. He only had one error at first, and has better sabermetric fielding stats at 1b than at 2b or 3b. At least, I think so. I can't promise I'm not reading the numbers wrong.

My guess for the line up:

Opening Day:
C: Mauer
1B: Doumit
2B: Casilla
SS: Carroll
3B: Valencia
LF: Revere
CF: Span
RF: Willingham
DH: Morneau

Bench: Nishioka, Hughes, Plouffe, Tosoni

Rotation (in no particular order): Baker, Pavano, Blackburn, Liriano, Marquis

Bullpen: Swarzak, Duensing, Doyle, Zumaya, Perkins, Capps, Oliveros.

I am really hoping that Carlos Gutierrez' new cutter combined with his sinker will make him a healthy, effective answer in the Twin's bullpen this year.

Ok so who takes Zumaya's place???

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Dilligaf69

Ok so who takes Zumaya's place???

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I'd say Oliveros, but Gray/Burton/Bulger/Vasquez et al, might think differently

I'm assuming the following about what the roster will look like.

1. The optimal lineup will have both Mauer and Doumit in it at C/DH in some combination. With both of those guys starting, it seems unlikely that Gardenhire would be happy without another catcher on the bench. That means Butera will make the team.
2. Casilla is likely to start at 2nd. Other options have defensive issues (Hughes) or everything issues (Nishioka).
3. Right now, Nishioka and Hughes are the backup infielders. I'm pretty confident in putting Hughes on the team; Nishioka is more of a question mark. Still, I wouldn't be surprised if the Twins give him a shot in occasional playing time and then perhaps demote or dump him by June if he's still obviously overmatched.
4. Plouffe is going to be the 4th outfielder/super-utility guy. The team has invested in converting him to OF, so I would argue that this role seems pretty clear.

If you believe those things, the bench is Butera, Nishioka, Hughes, Plouffe. Therefore, it's hard to disagree with the rosters suggested by EsotericBallGuy and Nick above. You could play around with the last couple of reliever spots, especially with Zumaya out, but those spots are going to be in flux anyway.