Thread: Heyman: Blue Jays, Dodgers, Giants Interested In Morneau

Originally Posted by birdwatcher

So, when they sign one or more expensive FA starters this winter, outbidding and overpaying in the process, will you choose to see things differently?

You have more faith in the Twins than I do. I'm predicting more dumpster diving like Jeremy Guthrie or the Athlete Formerly Known as Fausto Carmona.

Per Ken Rosenthal on Twitter:

36s Ken Rosenthal ‏@Ken_Rosenthal
#Dodgers no longer a fit for Morneau. They sent their only suitable young starter, Nate Eovaldi, to #Marlins in Hanley Ramirez trade.

Originally Posted by John Bonnes

I can't claim that the Twins won't get a bunch of 3rd-tier free agents instead of some premier guys. I expect they will. But the argument that only "some" of the $14M will be spent on free agents doesn't hold water. Here's how it works:

1) Right now, the Twins payroll is about $100M.
2) The remaining guys on the Twins payroll (including Morneau) cost about $76M next year.
3) So pick a number for payroll next year. Say you think payroll will go down $15M again. That would make it $85M.
4) If you don't trade Morneau, the team has $9M to spend on free agents. If they do, they have $23M to spend on free agents.

So long as you think the Twins payroll doesn't dip beneath what they already have committed - $76M or a $24M decrease - all of the $14M will be spent. Now, what they spend it on is a different story. But any money cleared will be available for free agents.

The problem with the say you look at it is some of that money they "saved" by not re-signing people has already been committed to other players. But that's all included in the $76M number.

But that's only because you assume the Twins already have a preset payroll in mind for next year. I do not believe that at all. Every indication, from the losing product on the field to the decreased revenue at the gate says the Twins will be decreasing payroll. They can't get Joe Mauer and the guys under contract next year to take a paycut, so the only way they'll be able to trim payroll is by not spending the money they saved on the players they lose.

Originally Posted by John Bonnes

1) Right now, the Twins payroll is about $100M.

3) So pick a number for payroll next year. Say you think payroll will go down $15M again. That would make it $85M.

According to ESPN, the payroll for the current Twins roster is now down to ~$82M (with ESPN quoting Morneau's salary at $15M), add in Nishioka's $3M and that gets you to $85M ALREADY. I'm thinking the Twins are getting real comfortable with that number for next season. That would leave about $30M in money for FAs coming from Morneau's contract, non-tendering Pavano and Capps, and the jettisoning of Nishi back to Japan.

Originally Posted by birdwatcher

So, when they sign one or more expensive FA starters this winter, outbidding and overpaying in the process, will you choose to see things differently?

I'd gladly retract every bad thing I've said if that were to happen. Since Ryan took over the Twins however, the Twins have only given 1 multi-year deal to a starting pitcher who wasn't with the Twins the year before. That was a two-year deal to 36-year-old Bob Tewksbury in 1997. Because of that, I'm not holding my breath. Ace pitchers get more than one-year deals.

Not sure I get the nishioka part, unless he voluntarily voids his deal, they will be paying him next year, won't they? Maybe I misunderstand how that works.

idk why the Giants would want Morneau when they have Brandon Belt, but apparently Bochy doesn't like Belt.. I don't know how much the Blue Jays would want Morneau, but he would be an upgrade over Adam Lind.

Originally Posted by mike wants wins

Not sure I get the nishioka part, unless he voluntarily voids his deal, they will be paying him next year, won't they? Maybe I misunderstand how that works.

Business Rule #1: Everything is Negotiable

By trading Morneau, the Twins will be buying prospects in the form of paying salary.

The Astros sent up to 17.7 million to the Pirates in the Rodriguez deal. It bought them #8, 13 and 16 prospects in the Pirate organization (BBA prospect handbook). Essentially, one B prospect and two Cs. The B prospect is not a pitcher.

The Yankees are paying 18.1 million of Burnett's contract for a return of two guys that are not marginal prospects.

It is not reasonable to expect the Twins will get much in return for Morneau. I don't think they can expect a solid B pitching prospect even if they pick up 2/3 of the remaining deal. Where is the precedent for trading a big contract at best average performing player with health concerns and getting a good return?

Can we be reasonable about Morneau's value this time?

Many on this board are great at analyzing the game. How did we miss on analyzing Liriano's value? More geek. Less freak.

Originally Posted by jorgenswest

How did we miss on analyzing Liriano's value? More geek. Less freak.

Several of us didn't and tried in vain to inject some rationality into the discussion but it is a common human trait that allows emotional attachment to override logical reasoning.

Originally Posted by mike wants wins

Not sure I get the nishioka part, unless he voluntarily voids his deal, they will be paying him next year, won't they? Maybe I misunderstand how that works.

You are correct, it was a guaranteed contract. The Twins could DFA him, but they are still on the hook for the contract. I'm guessing the "counting it" comes from whether or not it still applies to the payroll numbers.

Originally Posted by Oxtung

Several of us didn't and tried in vain to inject some rationality into the discussion but it is a common human trait that allows emotional attachment to override logical reasoning.

The kool-aid was mighty strong.

Originally Posted by DPJ

Screw what the return would be as far as prospects, the savings from not having to pay all of his contracts could apply to some much needed arms in the offseason.

You keep telling us In other threads the Twins should dump Morneau for nothing but salary relief, while simultaneously telling us the Twins won't, indeed shouldn't, invest in restocking the 2013 team.

And this is the third time I've called you on it.

Ill Ask again...are you a Pohlads grandchild worried about inheritance? Because there is no reason, none, to trade Morneau simply to reduce salary unless you're going to reinvest that money in the 2013 team. If you don't, it simply goes in the owners pockets.

For the record, selling Morneau low right now is an incredibly idiotic idea no matter how you look at it. Haven't we seen enough "sell low" mistakes from the Twins in recent history?

Originally Posted by USAFChief

You keep telling us In other threads the Twins should dump Morneau for nothing but salary relief, while simultaneously telling us the Twins won't, indeed shouldn't, invest in restocking the 2013 team.

And this is the third time I've called you on it.

Ill Ask again...are you a Pohlads grandchild worried about inheritance? Because there is no reason, none, to trade Morneau simply to reduce salary unless you're going to reinvest that money in the 2013 team. If you don't, it simply goes in the owners pockets.

For the record, selling Morneau low right now is an incredibly idiotic idea no matter how you look at it. Haven't we seen enough "sell low" mistakes from the Twins in recent history?

In addition you have to be able to justify why 2013 so important. That money is coming off the books anyways in 2014. So you have to be able to show that there is something that occurs in 2013 that won't be available in 2014. Then that something has be worth more than 2014's equivalent plus Morneau's production plus the potential prospects we could get back which at this point could be something significant.

Originally Posted by TheLeviathan

The kool-aid was mighty strong.

I don't blame you Leviathan. Like I said there are psychological studies that show humans overvalue things we know and undervalue those things that we are unfamiliar with. It is literally hardwired into the human brain.

Originally Posted by Oxtung

I don't blame you Leviathan. Like I said there are psychological studies that show humans overvalue things we know and undervalue those things that we are unfamiliar with. It is literally hardwired into the human brain.

No way man, I've resisted - been right there with you. I was calling for us to trade him before the season started.

On the subject of this thread - dealing Morneau for pennies on the dollar is stupid. You either deal him to help the future or hope he gets it back together. Lately he sure looks good.

Liriano and Morneau are the hottest trade targets that I don't/didn't want the Twins to trade. Send off Burton (hasn't allowed a run since June 10th) and Span while they have a ton of value. Not Justin and Frankie when they are close to their career lows!!

Of course if the Blue Jays were willing to part with Syndergard for Morneau... then we're talking.

I think it is a huge mistake to trade Justin, he's finally starting to figure out lefties again. At one point he was hitting in the .220's and has upped that to .263 while hitting above .315 the last 25 games. He also had a 17 game hitting streak recently and I think the Twins will get way less than he's worth back. I'll be so choked if he's in a BlueJays uniform next year hitting over .300 with 30 hrs and we're left with scrubs.

Originally Posted by TheLeviathan

No way man, I've resisted - been right there with you. I was calling for us to trade him before the season started.

On the subject of this thread - dealing Morneau for pennies on the dollar is stupid. You either deal him to help the future or hope he gets it back together. Lately he sure looks good.

My apologies then. Thought I had gotten into it with you on another thread last week.