Thread: Jon Paul Morosi: Mariners Focusing On Willingham?

I meant to add my usual caveat that the question of risk is totally aside from whether the Twins want to become known as a team that will flip a player one year into his three-year free-agent contract.

Originally Posted by ashburyjohn

I think you can view it in terms of risk. At the time the Twins signed Josh, it was regarded as a good signing but with risk of injury and/or decline from a career peak. With Josh playing full-time and at a high level, the Twins have "paid" the risk some other teams didn't wish to, and now can turn a profit if they want. That profit could be in the form of a different sort of risk when you take on a young player who isn't yet established; if Ryan and his scouts are better than average at assessing all these risks, it can be a self-sustaining model, but it's (*ahem*) risky.

But the risk is still there in Josh entering his mid-30's with around 16 million left on his deal and a pretty solid injury history. I guess I don't see how you go from being undervalued and in 7 months you're king ****.

Much like every team in the league doing backflips to get Liriano only to see him get traded for ****, I think this is more about idiot reports and stupid ESPN writers naming a good player on a bad team instead of the actually intrest in Josh.

Originally Posted by DPJ

Much like every team in the league doing backflips to get Liriano only to see him get traded for ****, I think this is more about idiot reports and stupid ESPN writers naming a good player on a bad team instead of the actually intrest in Josh.

One important difference is that Willingham is killing the ball. While his track record suggest a career abnormality, he's always brought power. Which is different than Liriano stringing together 10 starts against some of the worst offenses in baseball (with a few exceptions).

I think concerning ourselves with the perception of the team to future FA is the cart before the horse. It's not relevant to the team in its current composition - we need to add talent and Hammer at "sell high" value is a good way to do that.

the Twins should not feel the need to add anything to Willingham to get something. For Willingham, I'd want Hultzen-plus... I wouldn't add a top prospect. Willingham is a proven contributor at the big league level who is vastly underpaid for the rest of this season and two more seasons. Hultzen isn't a proven. He's a terrific prospect, but to me, that's the kind of guy that the TWins should get to give up Willingham. Otherwise, just keep him and his value.

Originally Posted by TheLeviathan

One important difference is that Willingham is killing the ball. While his track record suggest a career abnormality, he's always brought power. Which is different than Liriano stringing together 10 starts against some of the worst offenses in baseball (with a few exceptions).

I used Liriano more in the sense that everyone was linked to him, every team was in on him and he gets moved for ****.

If every team is creaming there jeans for Willingham, why the hell did he sign so cheap with one of the worst teams in baseball. Hell the only team I heard linked with Josh when he was a free agent was the Native Americans. Now 7 months later and he's the king of baseball. It just doesn't add up to me and I think it's just lazy reporting of a good player on a bad team then the actually amount of teams that are really intrested in Josh.

Originally Posted by TheLeviathan

I think concerning ourselves with the perception of the team to future FA is the cart before the horse. It's not relevant to the team in its current composition - we need to add talent and Hammer at "sell high" value is a good way to do that.

I don't know about the last statement. If 2014/15 is their target, they are going to need some decent pitching for that team. I don't see how they can do that without going into FA. With the FA pitching market being reasonably strong this offseason, it might make for a decent time to add a long term option.

"Walker, Hultzen or Paxton could each be in play for Willingham, I think."

That's exactly the kind of thinking that leads to the disappointment we've seen with the Liriano trade. Willingham has more value than Liriano, but Taijuan Walker isn't going anywhere, and Danny Hultzen wouldn't go in a deal unless they were getting more than Willingham. The Mariners are by far the worst team in their division (until the Astros join next year) and their window for contention is a few years off. They're not going to give a pitcher who is a big part of their future for an aging hitter, even if he has a team-friendly contract.

Willingham's value is likely lower with Seattle than other teams because of how Safeco kills right-handed pull power. While Target Field is perfect for Willingham, Safeco is exactly the opposite, something the Mariners learned the hard way with Adrian Beltre.

Originally Posted by Seth Stohs

the Twins should not feel the need to add anything to Willingham to get something. For Willingham, I'd want Hultzen-plus... I wouldn't add a top prospect. Willingham is a proven contributor at the big league level who is vastly underpaid for the rest of this season and two more seasons. Hultzen isn't a proven. He's a terrific prospect, but to me, that's the kind of guy that the TWins should get to give up Willingham. Otherwise, just keep him and his value.

I couldn't disagree more with this. Willingham is a proven contributor but he is on the wrong side of 30 and is having a career season. There is zero chance the Mariners would trade their top prospect for Willingham. Yes, his contract is nice but its only for 2 more years, its not like he has 4-5 cost controlled years left and several more years of upside.

example: Would we trade Sano for Kubel straight up?

no way.

The poster above me is correct, when we set ridiculous expectations like this it makes perfect sense that everyone then screams that Ryan "blew it"

i commented on mlbtr that the Twins should go for a package with Carlos Triunfel - think he can be an everyday starter at SS with a decent bat, Brandon Maurer - good pitching prospect(Maurer to Mauer..), then two other pitchers.. if the Mariners offer Paxton though I'd hope Ryan makes that deal in a heart beat.. Part of me rather keep Willingham for next year because I feel the Twins need him to try and contend next year

[QUOTE=Seth Stohs;39960]the Twins should not feel the need to add anything to Willingham to get something. For Willingham, I'd want Hultzen-plus... I wouldn't add a top prospect. Willingham is a proven contributor at the big league level who is vastly underpaid for the rest of this season and two more seasons. Hultzen isn't a proven. He's a terrific prospect, but to me, that's the kind of guy that the TWins should get to give up Willingham. Otherwise, just keep him and his value.

+1

Originally Posted by DPJ

But the risk is still there in Josh entering his mid-30's with around 16 million left on his deal and a pretty solid injury history. I guess I don't see how you go from being undervalued and in 7 months you're king ****.

Note that quotes have surfaced indicating other GMs think they're being asked too much for Willingham (and all the useful players Ryan is trying to peddle), so it's unclear who if anyone thinks Josh is king of anything.

It's just that the Twins have borne the risk of Josh breaking down for 4 month now, and since any player can get hurt, or decline in ability in their 30s, the worries from before the season may be lower now, making him more valuable than before. Hot a kingly price - just more valuable and worth looking for a high bidder.

Originally Posted by SpiritofVodkaDave

I couldn't disagree more with this. Willingham is a proven contributor but he is on the wrong side of 30 and is having a career season. There is zero chance the Mariners would trade their top prospect for Willingham. Yes, his contract is nice but its only for 2 more years, its not like he has 4-5 cost controlled years left and several more years of upside.

example: Would we trade Sano for Kubel straight up?

no way.

The poster above me is correct, when we set ridiculous expectations like this it makes perfect sense that everyone then screams that Ryan "blew it"

I would agree except for the fact when you hold all the cards you should shoot for the moon. The Mariners are looking for a team controlled power hitter, and there are TWO on the market as this article mentions. Power bats are worth power arms, and the Twins should totally hold to this. Home runs are very expensive to buy on the open market and the Twins bought low on a very big power bat. He is under team control for the next two years at an affordable rate.

This isn't Liriano, Willingham is a quality player that deserves quality prospects back. I agree, negotiations should start at Hultzen +. Worst case, you come down to make the trade straight up.

I think BOTH Walker and Paxton are in play here....

2 for 1. in Willingham

Hultzen is all theres tho.... i would bet.

Josh has been overplaying his contract worth. He is a .250 hitter with a decent K/BB ratio wjo can consistently give you 25+ homers and 90+ rbi and also getting older.

Originally Posted by shs_59

I think BOTH Walker and Paxton are in play here....

2 for 1. in Willingham

Hultzen is all theres tho.... i would bet.

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Originally Posted by chopper0080

I agree, negotiations should start at Hultzen +. Worst case, you come down to make the trade straight up.

That's all fine and dandy if the Twins don't want to be serious about an offer, but the Mariners don't and won't make that trade straight up. Period. There is literally zero reason for them to do so. If Willingham was about 7 years younger and still under team control for 3-4 years then they would prob consider it. But as it is now? No way in hell. That would be 5x worse then us trading away Sano and Arcia for RA Dickey.