Thread: Article: Hard Truths

Originally Posted by jimbo92107

I'm a little curious about Pedro Hernandez. Is he rated as high as Samuel Deduno?

Significantly higher. DeDuno didn't come close to cracking a top 40 list for the Twins this year I believe and he is 29 years old.

Yeah, obviously I'm not surprised at the gnashing of teeth over this. I personally think Liriano's one bad game last week DID negatively affect the offers Ryan was getting and one good game Sunday wouldn't have helped. That implosion put to bed any misconception scouts might have had that Liriano was "fixed" during his exile to the bullpen. Same old Frankie... as likely to blow up as blow away hitters.

I get that so many fans tend to overvalue their favorite players, but what I don't understand is the argument that the Twins should have offered this guy $12+ mil for next year. Especially when those arguments come from people who also claim the Twins need to rebuild for 2014 and beyond.

Of course, I can't see the logic in risking the $12+ million on Liriano, regardless of whether you think 2013 is a wash or not. Talk about throwing money down a well.

I watched Hernandez's 7/18 start in Fenway. His "slider" is a glorified cutter with no depth. He struggles to get his changeup over for strikes, and his fastball at 88-91 (4 seam) is meatball for righthanders. Why the FO would trade for a fly ball lefthander when TF favors righthanders already, is curious to me. At least Liriano had a reasonable HR/FB rate and was lights out against lefthanders. Hernandez gave up a bushel of hits to lefthanders with his "slider" and was destroyed several times by righthanders including a gigantic Cody Ross HR that left Fenway.

Top it off, he kept his first pitch of the game, not first strikeout or out (ended up giving up a double to Ellsbury), suggesting a superstitious/crazy head.

I was in the camp favoring offering Frankie a fair extension, even overpaying for a year at $12M or getting the draft pick if he wouldn't be reasonable about an extension. However, I'm not going to declare this move as a bad one. How can you predict that? In fact, it's just as reasonable to predict that Pedro Hernandez will have a more productive career going forward than Frankie. Over the years, my guess is that, when I've disagreed with a Terry Ryan move, he's been proven right 70% of the time. Geez, I sure hated giving up Bullock for that no-stuff stiff Diamond.

Would Hernandez rate some where around what Duensing was rated when he was brought up? Sounds like the stuff is about the same.
Would another Duensing and Punto be that bad for a guy gone at the end of the season?

Some cats have nine lives, but maybe Frankie's a cat with nine deaths, and nine dead cat bounces! His 15K performance was probably just one more of his patented dead cat bounces. So, now the Chisox will coach him up, proving to tobynot jason and the rest that Rick Anderson is a pathetic incompetent (Frankie was coached by someone else when he performed well you see). What are the chances Frankie puts a string of decent performances together for Chicago, and then comes apart atthe seams again say, just in time for a playoff start. Yeah, I wish we could feel better about this trade, but...

Again--why all the comments over this trade. Liriano was going at the end of the season for nothing. No way, TR would offer him a $12million one-year contract to get the draft pick. Not even CC or Verlander is worth $12million a year. We got two guys who most likely are not worth much--but that is more than we would have gotten at the end of the season.

Frankie has 10 starts (more or less) to demonstrate his value for next year. I doubt he will get an offer of $12million (total for 3 years) he is too up and down.

Originally Posted by DAM DC Twins Fans

Not even CC or Verlander is worth $12million a year.

Um, yes they are. A CC/Verlander/Hernandez/Dickey/Weaver rotation for $60m a year?

Yes, please.

Originally Posted by DAM DC Twins Fans

Again--why all the comments over this trade. Liriano was going at the end of the season for nothing. No way, TR would offer him a $12million one-year contract to get the draft pick. Not even CC or Verlander is worth $12million a year. We got two guys who most likely are not worth much--but that is more than we would have gotten at the end of the season.

Frankie has 10 starts (more or less) to demonstrate his value for next year. I doubt he will get an offer of $12million (total for 3 years) he is too up and down.

There is no leak yet of what Jr. turned down from other orgs - we can presume, based on prior comments to the media, that Jr weeded out lower ball, higher ceiling prospects in favor of the "ready to go" route and thus traded for 2 players who were currently on a MLB roster. Certainly no other club offered him that.

We can't argue that other offers were "better" but we can bust him for the faulty approach which targets your typical low-budget patchwork of players that have failed for 21 years running.

Originally Posted by Willihammer

we can presume, based on prior comments to the media, that Jr weeded out lower ball, higher ceiling prospects in favor of the "ready to go" route and thus traded for 2 players who were currently on a MLB roster.

Except for the part where Ryan said that he was targeting low ball, higher ceiling prospects during the deadline.

Originally Posted by rocketpig

Except for the part where Ryan said that he was targeting low ball, higher ceiling prospects during the deadline.

See prior comments. He said the opposite as well, and traded thusly. Its clear his intention was to get a replacement level AAA type pitcher with few hours on the arb. clock.

What's disappointing to me isn't the trade or the returns. It's the fact that a player with that kind of talent accomplished so little when given so many chances. Of course no one would trade high-end prospects for him. He's a coin flip with every outing. That makes for a fun and intriguing player, but not a really successful one.

Originally Posted by Willihammer

I watched Hernandez's 7/18 start in Fenway. His "slider" is a glorified cutter with no depth. He struggles to get his changeup over for strikes, and his fastball at 88-91 (4 seam) is meatball for righthanders. Why the FO would trade for a fly ball lefthander when TF favors righthanders already, is curious to me. At least Liriano had a reasonable HR/FB rate and was lights out against lefthanders. Hernandez gave up a bushel of hits to lefthanders with his "slider" and was destroyed several times by righthanders including a gigantic Cody Ross HR that left Fenway.

Top it off, he kept his first pitch of the game, not first strikeout or out (ended up giving up a double to Ellsbury), suggesting a superstitious/crazy head.

Perhaps the Twins like most teams viewed more than one freaking game when deciding to take a chance on Hernandez.

Also FWIW: by your logic White Sox fans could say the exact same thing about Liriano when he gave up 3 HR and 7 ER in his last start against them.

Originally Posted by Willihammer

See prior comments. He said the opposite as well, and traded thusly. Its clear his intention was to get a replacement level AAA type pitcher with few hours on the arb. clock.

So you're relying on a third-hand account of Ryan's wants versus what Ryan has said directly in interviews.

Originally Posted by SpiritofVodkaDave

Perhaps the Twins like most teams viewed more than one freaking game when deciding to take a chance on Hernandez.

Also FWIW: by your logic White Sox fans could say the exact same thing about Liriano when he gave up 3 HR and 7 ER in his last start against them.

His line that game is not what I tried explaining. I shared my observations of his "stuff" since that 1 appearance is the only thing freely available at this (if you have mlb.tv). If you have a milb.tv account then by all means tell us what we saw on 7/18 was slower, flatter, and more hittable than what is typical.

Everyone knows Liriano will have days like Hernandez had, but he will have days where he is unhittable due to his raw stuff being better. Also the White Sox are purported to believe they can 'fix' Liriano. Based on a comparison of velocity and action, Hernandez will have days where he is shelled and no days where he is lights out, and can't be fixed due to far less talent.

Hernandez is cheaper and walks fewer hitters, that's it.

Originally Posted by rocketpig

So you're relying on a third-hand account of Ryan's wants versus what Ryan has said directly in interviews.

Do you think TR considers 2 players currently on a MLB roster to be low ball, high ceiling prospects? What he has done is in direct contradiction to what you claim he said he was after.

Originally Posted by Willihammer

Do you think TR considers 2 players currently on a MLB roster to be low ball, high ceiling prospects? What he has done is in direct contradiction to what you claim he said he was after.

It all depends on what else he was offered for Liriano. We simply don't know what was on the table... that could have been all he was offered.

Originally Posted by rocketpig

So you're relying on a third-hand account of Ryan's wants versus what Ryan has said directly in interviews.

Right. I don't know who Stark was quoting in that ESPN article because it's not attributed, but Ryan was quoted directly (and extensively) as saying that focusing on guys who could help next year would be a "terrible mistake." Here's the money quote:

"You can go get a marginal Triple-A guy who might be here next year," he said. "Are you going to be satisfied passing up a high-ceiling guy? I wouldn't be, but everybody has their own philosophy on that."

Originally Posted by Nick Nelson

Right. I don't know who Stark was quoting in that ESPN article because it's not attributed, but Ryan was quoted directly (and extensively) as saying that focusing on guys who could help next year would be a "terrible mistake." Here's the money quote:

"You can go get a marginal Triple-A guy who might be here next year," he said. "Are you going to be satisfied passing up a high-ceiling guy? I wouldn't be, but everybody has their own philosophy on that."

On the other hand, this is exactly what the interim did... I guess he has to admit that he made a mistake now...

Actions speak louder than words. He can say a whole bunch of stuff. What he does is what matters, not what he says he's going to do. He said that he was going to fix the Twins medical stuff and waiting for Godot before they put people on the DL. Plouffe/Capps/Pavano happened.

For some reason I do not believe a word that guy is saying.

Originally Posted by Nick Nelson

"Are you going to be satisfied passing up a high-ceiling guy?

I view Ryan as a man of integrity, therefore lacking evidence to the contrary I assume no such offer was in hand.