Thread: Jon Heyman: Orioles are interested in Liriano

http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/blog/jo...an-get-on-base

The contending Orioles have broadened their pitching search to inquire about Bartolo Colon and Francisco Liriano since their chances at a high-end starter such as Zack Greinke may not be great.

I don't get the sense the Orioles are willing to overpay for Frankie. IN fact, that's why his name has come up with them - they think his cost will be more reasonable. Also, a couple of weeks ago Seth wrote up the profile for the Orioles including some names about whom the Twins might ask, if you're interested.

Jake Arrieta – RHP, Zach Britton – LHP, Brian Matusz – LHP, Chris Tillman – RHP

I would take anyone of these young pitchers, but....Rick Anderson will not be able to help these guys much....

Man, a lot is riding on Frankie's next start. Another clunker and his value drops to an also-ran. Another 10k+ start and his value jumps to the top of the list again.

Originally Posted by rocketpig

Man, a lot is riding on Frankie's next start. Another clunker and his value drops to an also-ran. Another 10k+ start and his value jumps to the top of the list again.

Well, so long as there's no pressure ....

As crazy as it seems cause I don't know where in the hell his velocity has gone. I don't think it's crazy to try a buy-low on Matusz and pray to the stars that his velocity returns.

Originally Posted by rocketpig

Man, a lot is riding on Frankie's next start. Another clunker and his value drops to an also-ran. Another 10k+ start and his value jumps to the top of the list again.

Top of the list? Every thing I've read, even before Liriano tanked this week, had him like 8th pitcher down. Now some of those pitchers have already been dealt and Hamels re-signed so maybe he's moved up a bit on the list but then again we have less buyers now too. Several trade rumors even talked about him coming out of the bullpen. I think this board is overvaluing Liriano something fierce. Yeah Liriano might put up an ERA around 3 and strike guys out but it's equally likely that he has an ERA around 7. What GM wants that kind of risk when even 1 loss could put you out of the playoffs? It's not like there aren't other pitchers out there who are as good as Liriano AND don't have his apparent downside right now. The true question is what are the asking prices. Nobody is going to pay the same for Liriano as they are for Dempster, Garza or Greinke.

Originally Posted by Oxtung

Top of the list? Every thing I've read, even before Liriano tanked this week, had him like 8th pitcher down. Now some of those pitchers have already been dealt and Hamels re-signed so maybe he's moved up a bit on the list but then again we have less buyers now too. Several trade rumors even talked about him coming out of the bullpen. I think this board is overvaluing Liriano something fierce. Yeah Liriano might put up an ERA around 3 and strike guys out but it's equally likely that he has an ERA around 7. What GM wants that kind of risk when even 1 loss could put you out of the playoffs? It's not like there aren't other pitchers out there who are as good as Liriano AND don't have his apparent downside right now. The true question is what are the asking prices. Nobody is going to pay the same for Liriano as they are for Dempster, Garza or Greinke.

When I said "top of the list", I meant the top 3 guys or so... not necessarily the #1 position. Greinke is struggling. Hamels has re-signed. Those were the two obvious guys at the top going into July. In the second tier, I would slot Sanchez, Dempster, Liriano, Rodriguez. Some have more value than Liriano (Wandy, for example) but also had downside as well (a lot of money owed).

As a rental, there aren't many guys I'd rank higher than Liriano, especially from a pure talent perspective. Now that the Marlins are dealing, Johnson may be added to that list as well. Overall, I think you could make a case for any number of pitchers to be in the #1 slot for various reasons but Liriano should be in that group of guys, especially if he puts together another solid/great start in two days.

Frankie may have as much or more talent but can you rely on him when your season may be on the line? Doubt it. If the O's offered a big plate of crab cakes and a six pack Gardy would be happy.

While I agree that people around here are likely to be underwhelmed by whatever Ryan ends up getting in return for Liriano, I would also just point out that he's not the only pitcher capable of a clunker now and then. Look at the list of pitchers being dealt, from Greinke at the top, through Dempster, Garza, Rodriguez, Johnson... there's a reason those guys have either been dealt or are on the market and that's the fact that all of them come with warts. None is a guaranteed great performance when he goes to the mound this year.

Originally Posted by rocketpig

Man, a lot is riding on Frankie's next start. Another clunker and his value drops to an also-ran. Another 10k+ start and his value jumps to the top of the list again.

But what we all love about Liriano is that he could do both of those things in the same game! Then what?!?!

Sure every pitcher is capable of being smacked around for a game or two. The problem with Liriano is threefold. First, he is capable of going into a funk where it isn't 1 or 2 games but rather 5 or 6 games where he pitches at a 7+ ERA. Just a few months ago he had 6 straight starts where he gave up 5ER or more! And it wasn't a fluke, he's had bad stretches in 3 of the last 4 years.

Second, Liriano has only pitched well in 1 month this year. Yeah that was a great month but even July he put up a 5.34 ERA with a 1.42 WHIP. Not exactly setting the world on fire right now. Even if you assume that his last start was a BLIP he still only has a 3.46 ERA and a 1.230 WHIP. While those numbers are decent they aren't elite by any means.

Third is a problem of perception. If you go out and get a guy like Greinke, Josh Johnson, Ryan Dempster or Garza your fans will be excited (obviously there is a difference between Greinke and the others here but there is a difference between Liriano and the rest as well). They will come to the game, spend money buying your overpriced hotdogs and beer and be excited to watch that new addition to the squad. That pitcher that is going to put them over the top. Now if one of those guys struggles down the stretch and you don't make the playoffs or bowout early your GM can still point to the fact that they went out and gave it their best shot. They went out and got one of the best and biggest names available. The talk show hosts and newspaper columnists can bitch but in the end they have to agree that each of those pitchers had the stats at the deadline to look like a good signing. On the other hand if Liriano comes out and goes 1-4 with a 5.80 ERA you have nothing to fall back on with your fans. He isn't one of the best pitchers and hasn't been for a few years. As a GM you're going to get destroyed by the local media.

So while Liriano's "stuff" might be up there with those top names bandied about all of the "peripherals" scream NOOOOOO!!!!!

Originally Posted by Oxtung

So while Liriano's "stuff" might be up there with those top names bandied about all of the "peripherals" scream NOOOOOO!!!!!

Yes his "peripherals" ERA and WHIP, maybe.

His xFIP since 2010 is identical to Jared Weaver's. His K-rate is higher than Sabathia, Weaver, Hanson, Shields, Anibal Sanchez, Madison Bumgarner... His SIERA better than Cain, Garza, Marcum, Dempster, Wandy, Gio, Dickey...

Originally Posted by Willihammer

Yes his "peripherals" ERA and WHIP, maybe.

His xFIP since 2010 is identical to Jared Weaver's. His K-rate is higher than Sabathia, Weaver, Hanson, Shields, Anibal Sanchez, Madison Bumgarner... His SIERA better than Cain, Garza, Marcum, Dempster, Wandy, Gio, Dickey...

Sorry, I should have used a different word. In this case "peripherals" meant the non-statistics side of things; the potential to fall apart, the potential ticket sales impact and then justifying it to your fans etc...

Originally Posted by DPJ

As crazy as it seems cause I don't know where in the hell his velocity has gone. I don't think it's crazy to try a buy-low on Matusz and pray to the stars that his velocity returns.

The problem with this is that unless there are some mechanical reasons, severe velocity drops point to injuries, usually elbow and shoulder.

Originally Posted by thrylos98

The problem with this is that unless there are some mechanical reasons, severe velocity drops point to injuries, usually elbow and shoulder.

Sounds like the "Twins way" kind of pitcher! Just think of how good our staff is at diagnosing and rehabbing all those arms!

According to MLBTR, the Angels and the Orioles appear to be the ones going after Liriano the most.

While the Orioles shouldn't be buying, this is the type of low risk/high reward move that might make some sense.

I don't think his performance in the next start will matter as long as he stays healthy. However, by starting him the Twins trade one of his remaining starts or about 8% of his value.

I think the Twins should rearrange the rotation so that he is scheduled to start August 1. This will allow his new team an opportunity to slot him where he best fits in their rotation. They have an off day today so it can be accomplished.

The Twins need to make a trade. They bottom bar is the level of a single comp pick. Any prospect in the top 200 would be better value. The best they can do above that level should be accepted and the Twins move forward.

I know some people have alluded to the idea that Liriano would go to another team and win a Cy Young (and then wouldn't all of us trade advocates look silly?), but this changes the game. The Orioles are where careers go to die.

Originally Posted by Oxtung

Sorry, I should have used a different word. In this case "peripherals" meant the non-statistics side of things; the potential to fall apart, the potential ticket sales impact and then justifying it to your fans etc...

Sooo he fails in the departments that can't be measured using stupid statistics right? I see what you're throwin down.