Thread: Reds Have "Kicked the Tires" on Span

Stubbs -.668 OPS
Span - .731

No doubt Span is the hitter player right now, but if the upgrade that large that you would give up a top prospect. Is the gain really that large?

CINGRANI***!

Goodness, every single person on this thread has spelled it wrong. The lesson here is to never follow Bonnes' lead when it comes to spelling.

Originally Posted by DPJ

Stubbs -.668 OPS
Span - .731

No doubt Span is the hitter player right now, but if the upgrade that large that you would give up a top prospect. Is the gain really that large?

Yeah, it is. His defensive value/baserunning etc make him about twice as valuable as Stubbs. Plus, Stubbs is coming into his arbitration years where Span has the more team friendly contract.

A 70 point difference in OPS is massive.

Originally Posted by mike wants wins

A 70 point difference in OPS is massive.

Hyperbole much? While a difference it is nowhere near "massive".

The lead off hitters for the Reds combined have an OBP of around .250. That is not a typo. Span would be a huge upgrade for them.

If I were the Reds I'd rather just give up a lower level prospect for Juan Pierre then give up something larger for Span. I don't think he's that massive up an upgrade to give up a solid arm for. NTM I've always been a huge Stubbs fan and believe he'll figure it out. He's always gonna have some contact issues, but I still really like him.

Originally Posted by Oxtung

Hyperbole much? While a difference it is nowhere near "massive".

It's the difference between a 79 OPS+ and a 105 OPS+. Stubbs is putting up that OPS in the Great American Bandbox while Denard is doing it at Target Field.

That's massive.

Yup, after checking Fangraphs, I'm even more sure the difference is massive. Not to mention Denard has a very nice contract. Put him in a smaller stadium, and he's even better, offensively and defensively.

I'd add Burton to Span and ask for Corcino or Cingrani and Didi.

Originally Posted by mike wants wins

Yup, after checking Fangraphs, I'm even more sure the difference is massive. Not to mention Denard has a very nice contract. Put him in a smaller stadium, and he's even better, offensively and defensively.

Yep, it should be noted that even OPS+ is slanted in favor of Stubbs in this case (and a 79 to 105 OPS+ difference is already "massive"). Cincinnati's second-ranked pitching staff is skewing the results in GAB compared to Minnesota's 29th-ranked pitching staff in TF.

The Reds already have four quality starters under the age of 26 and that's assuming they don't give Chapman a chance to start next year. It might sound rediculous, but along with Sulbaran, they have three stud arms in AA and may have nowhere for them to go in the next year. Dealing one of them for a long-term upgrade to the leadoff and CF spots is probably something they should be willing to do.

Originally Posted by mike wants wins

Yup, after checking Fangraphs, I'm even more sure the difference is massive. Not to mention Denard has a very nice contract. Put him in a smaller stadium, and he's even better, offensively and defensively.

I guess we'll just have to disagree about what the definition of "massive" is. To me "massive" would be Willingham's .957 OPS and 157 OPS+. I understand and agree that Span would be an upgrade and obviously his OBP and OPS would be upgrades. My only point is that .07 OPS isn't "massive" and blowing things out of proportion to make a point doesn't help further a discussion.

Great American Ball Park isn't any smaller than TF in CF. It's proportions are just different. It's slightly shallower at straight away center but it is slightly deeper in left center and right center. Spans defense should play about the same. On a purely hypothetical note a playing in a smaller stadium would actually reduce a players defensive impact. The larger the area to cover the better the defense is required and the more you can show off just how good you are.

Originally Posted by USAFChief

A pitcher with stuff, and promise, LHer to boot, that has reached AA. I don't think you'll get better than that.

There's an understatement. If Ryan can pull that off, say combining Span with a throw-in, he has my further respect.

Originally Posted by Oxtung

Great American Ball Park isn't any smaller than TF in CF. It's proportions are just different. It's slightly shallower at straight away center but it is slightly deeper in left center and right center. Spans defense should play about the same. On a purely hypothetical note a playing in a smaller stadium would actually reduce a players defensive impact. The larger the area to cover the better the defense is required and the more you can show off just how good you are.

It may not be much smaller than Target Field but it plays a lot smaller. It's consistently in the top 10 in HRs allowed. It's #1 this season, even with the Reds second-best-in-baseball pitching staff (and those aren't all Reds homers, they're only 12th in baseball in homeruns as a team). In its three year history, Target Field has ranked 30th, 20th, and 18th in homers allowed. Considering that the Twins pitching staff has been second worst in baseball in the last two years, the 20th and 18th rankings are probably as high as the park will ever get.

Span hit 8 homers in his last dome season. He hasn't hit more than 3 in a season since. It's not hard to envision a world where he tacks on another 20-30 OPS points by moving to a smaller stadium. All it takes is 3-4 warning track fly balls in Target Field to turn into homeruns in the GAB to do it. Span has decent pop but Target Field is death to lefties so it doesn't show.

The only way I would trade Span is to the Reds. As we know the Reds are horrible at leadoff, putting Span leadoff for the next few years in Cinci is a huge upgrade. Which then puts a higher trade value for him. Span's deal to the Twins is really good, I don't understand trading Span unless we get an impact pitcher and that is hard to do. Span isn't an All Star caliber CFer, but putting in perspective what he does for the team vs. the price we pay is really big. In order to get rid of Span it really has to be a good deal, or easily just keep him.

Originally Posted by rocketpig

It may not be much smaller than Target Field but it plays a lot smaller. It's consistently in the top 10 in HRs allowed. It's #1 this season, even with the Reds second-best-in-baseball pitching staff (and those aren't all Reds homers, they're only 12th in baseball in homeruns as a team). In its three year history, Target Field has ranked 30th, 20th, and 18th in homers allowed. Considering that the Twins pitching staff has been second worst in baseball in the last two years, the 20th and 18th rankings are probably as high as the park will ever get.

Span hit 8 homers in his last dome season. He hasn't hit more than 3 in a season since. It's not hard to envision a world where he tacks on another 20-30 OPS points by moving to a smaller stadium. All it takes is 3-4 warning track fly balls in Target Field to turn into homeruns in the GAB to do it. Span has decent pop but Target Field is death to lefties so it doesn't show.

GABP might let more balls out and Span's OPS might climb by as you say. None of that will affect his defensive value though. When you get down to it what matters is how big is the area you need to cover. The bigger the area the better your defender better be. Now, there might be some difference when it comes to wind patterns and balls getting moved by air currents in stadiums, but again that really isn't an effect of the size of the stadium. Even if balls are getting blown around CF seems like it would come out close to equal in the "balls blown out of your defensive area" and "balls blown into your defensive area" game.

I would do Span Liriano and Capps for hamilton and Cingrani. Heck, anyone that can be traded to make the deal happen. I would be super pumped about the twins again!

Originally Posted by Oxtung

GABP might let more balls out and Span's OPS might climb by as you say. None of that will affect his defensive value though. When you get down to it what matters is how big is the area you need to cover. The bigger the area the better your defender better be. Now, there might be some difference when it comes to wind patterns and balls getting moved by air currents in stadiums, but again that really isn't an effect of the size of the stadium. Even if balls are getting blown around CF seems like it would come out close to equal in the "balls blown out of your defensive area" and "balls blown into your defensive area" game.

Every major league OF is large enough where a defender can't cover it all. While GAB's somewhat less spacious dimensions could make OF defense slightly less important, it's not as if Span's range is suddenly marginalized. Outfield coverage isn't only about how far you can run but it's also how quickly you get there. A line drive could be hit 30 feet from the center fielder but if the guy isn't quick enough to cover that 30 feet in less than 2-2.5 seconds, that ball still drops for a hit.

Originally Posted by rocketpig

Every major league OF is large enough where a defender can't cover it all. While GAB's somewhat less spacious dimensions could make OF defense slightly less important, it's not as if Span's range is suddenly marginalized. Outfield coverage isn't only about how far you can run but it's also how quickly you get there. A line drive could be hit 30 feet from the center fielder but if the guy isn't quick enough to cover that 30 feet in less than 2-2.5 seconds, that ball still drops for a hit.

Lots of things in this post that I would like to comment on but this thread isn't really the place for it. If you, or anyone else, would be interested in having a discussion about outfield defense or how ballparks shape affects defensive play I would be interested in going down that path and seeing where we end up. I have some ideas but certainly have never given it any real in depth thought.

Until someone starts that thread I'll leave my thoughts at this:

1) Of course a defender has to cover all of his assigned outfield so outfield size does matter. You can't necessarily get to everything in the air but you still have to get there.

2) GAB and TF are roughly the same dimensions in CF so the outfield play should be equally important.

3) In baseball terms speed and distance covered are really two sides of the same coin.