Should Butera start at Catcher?

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Originally Posted by Boom Boom

I'm not convinced that, even if Butera turned Blackburn into a serviceable starter, that the difference would offset the offensive hit the lineup would take from removing either Mauer or Doumit and inserting Drew.

I get what you're saying, and I admit that Butera is a better defensive catcher than Mauer and a much better catcher than Doumit. I do think there is some truth to catchers' ERA, but I don't think it's nearly as big a difference as the numbers you've presented would posit to suggest.

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Actually, in looking at the numbers, the Twins offense is most inept when Doumit catches (I was incorrect in one calculation I made earlier, concerning the average number of runs the Twins offense puts up when Doumit catches, which I have since corrected, in addition to verifying all other calculations). The Twins score, on average, 5 runs per game with Mauer catching. They drop a whole run, to 4, when Butera catches. They drop another half run, to 3.5, when Doumit catches.

I also don't see any reason why the Twins can't trade Morneau for prospects and to open up spending space for next year, then switch Doumit, Mauer and Willingham between 1B, LF and DH. With Mauer, and once in a while Doumit catching, you could even play Parmelee some more, instead of letting him rot on the bench.

Also, from an Occam's Razor angle, what's more likely...

that Butera's defensive value is being inflated by a tiny sample of a shaky stat or two...

or that he's found a new ability to handle pitchers that produces overwhelming, repeatable results, but he's refusing to even explain the breakthrough, let alone teach the new ability set to Mauer and Doumit, all with the apparent total disregard of on- and off-field management?

I was partially agreeing with you before, Cap'n, but "average runs scored based on whom the starting catcher was", or ARSBOWTSCW, is a new statistic to me that needs more research before I would consider such numbers to be meaningful.

Great use of Occam's razor, awesome.

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Originally Posted by rocketpig

Drew Butera caught lots of games last season and the Twins were 29th in ERA.

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How many times have you used this quote in your arguments against Butera. I swear I've seen it at least 4 times.

With Butera in the line up it would be too many easy outs and rally killings. I'd rather see Chris Hermann as third catcher - utility, over Butera.

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Originally Posted by Fire Dan Gladden

How many times have you used this quote in your arguments against Butera. I swear I've seen it at least 4 times.

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And yet some people choose to ignore it time and time again. It's like a parent telling his child to clean his room 4 times.

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Originally Posted by Fire Dan Gladden

How many times have you used this quote in your arguments against Butera. I swear I've seen it at least 4 times.

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Maybe he'll keep using it until some of you get it.

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Originally Posted by Fire Dan Gladden

How many times have you used this quote in your arguments against Butera. I swear I've seen it at least 4 times.

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If you're setting the line at 4, I'm taking the over. For sure.

Starting Catcher W-L
2010
Mauer - 66-41 (.617)
Butera - 22-24 (.478)
Other* - 7-7 (.500)

2011
Mauer - 21-25 (.457)
Butera - 30-61 (.330)
Other* - 18-32 (.360)

2012
Mauer - 17-25 (.405)
Butera - 16-9 (.640)
Other* - 12-21 (.364)

2010-2012
Mauer - 104-91 (.533)
Butera - 68-94 (.420)
Other* - 37-60 (.381)

* Doumit, Rivera, Holm, Morales, or Ramos

Small sample size likely to blame for Butera's dominance this year, especially when you consider that the Twins are playing better recently than earlier in the year. For example, if you look at the last 19 games caught by any of these 3 categories, Mauer is 10-9, Doumit is 10-9, Butera is 12-7. Still small samples, but less Butera dominance. Factor in that Butera has more frequently caught our "better" pitchers than the others would slant the records to be in his favor. I'll take the long term average and leave Mauer behind the plate.

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Originally Posted by Fire Dan Gladden

How many times have you used this quote in your arguments against Butera. I swear I've seen it at least 4 times.

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I'm going to keep using it until people start reading it and comprehending what it means (basically, that catchers only have a marginal impact on how a pitcher performs).

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Originally Posted by snepp

Yes, he isn't even capable of whispering sweet nothings into Frankie's ear.

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He's also would like to go back in time and play with Ty Cobb. No wonder he can't catch Liriano or Deduno like Butera.

Will Doumit catch Blackburn's next start? He seemed to get throught to him as one facial-haired player to another.

All the Twins need to do is find some tall, clean shaven, soft spoken starters for Joe to handle.

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Originally Posted by Cap'n Piranha

I'm just saying there is an incredible statistical anomaly that has now hit a level where it moves beyond short-lived blip on the radar, and becomes, let's see if there's anything to this.

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You might have a statistical anomoly, except that you really are only dealing with 10 starts, but I'm not sure that the word incredible should be attached to this at all. He has 2 years worth of data that you have repeatedly ignored. He's had the luxury of catching Liriano during his resurgence, which might be on Drew, accept for the small problem that Liriano has had long stretches of dominance not unlike this stretch... and not surprisngly, the big corresponding peripheral changes when Liriano dominates is increased velocity on the FB and decreased walks.

No reasonable person would argue that Drew can somehow coax and extra 3-4 MPH on Liriano's fastball, and no reasonable person should be suggesting that Drew is the reason Liriano finds the plate more consistently... It's Liriano's job to hit the target that the catcher sets... I'm fairly certain the catcher has little if any control over the pitcher's ability to hit the catcher.

Drew caught a ridiculous number of games last season. If he was some magic worker, than the Twins wouldnt' have had the second worst record in baseball... their pitchers would have kept them in every game, and while the offense was bad,it wouldn't have been 99 losses bad.

There have been some bad threads put up lately coupled with ridiculous comments.
Maybe things will improve once the trade deadline passes.

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Originally Posted by Cap'n Piranha

Actually, in looking at the numbers, the Twins offense is most inept when Doumit catches (I was incorrect in one calculation I made earlier, concerning the average number of runs the Twins offense puts up when Doumit catches, which I have since corrected, in addition to verifying all other calculations). The Twins score, on average, 5 runs per game with Mauer catching. They drop a whole run, to 4, when Butera catches. They drop another half run, to 3.5, when Doumit catches.

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Put a measurably better hitter in the lineup and fewer runs score: doesn't this little side-investigation cause one to reflect on the merit of this style of analysis? Guess not.

wonder what tonights line just did to that SSS.

"insert token comment about blaming this loss on Butera since he (Butera) clearly deserves all the credit for Liriano's recent success..." oh boy 2.2 IP 7ER and 3HR...not what the doctor ordered for the Twins tonight...

http://i.imgur.com/bMtqO.jpg

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Originally Posted by GCTF

Will Doumit catch Blackburn's next start? He seemed to get throught to him as one facial-haired player to another.

All the Twins need to do is find some tall, clean shaven, soft spoken starters for Joe to handle.

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Blackburn was shaved for his latest start. But maybe he felt like he wasn't? "Now" things are getting ridiculous.