Thread: Trade Sano?

I see no stock dropping, it's a matter of Low A player vs proven MLB starting pitcher under control for more than 3 months....and that might be a fair trade. There is great uncertainty about any Low A player ever making the majors, let alone being as good as a proven MLB starting pitcher. Plus, you get the return on the deal now, rather than the future.

The Twins have all the time in the world to trade Sano if that's what they want to do.

He's not even been playing particularly well recently, so his stock may be down right now.

Originally Posted by Oxtung

I would trade Sano straight up for any of the highly regarded young pitchers that are under team control long term. To me Sano seems a risky prospect. His BABIP has been very high before this year. This year it is at an average level and his batting average and xBH rate have all dropped accordingly. Unless he can reign in those K rates offensively he is Mike Restovich or Adam Dunn.

somewhat agree....just wanted to add.... or

Richie Sexton or dare i say....Andy Marte....gasp
Nooo

Adam Dunn like at 1B would be a pretty decent outcome though.

Originally Posted by Boom Boom

The Twins have all the time in the world to trade Sano if that's what they want to do.

He's not even been playing particularly well recently, so his stock may be down right now.

GREAT POINT....in this case regarding Miguel Sano....Time is most definately the Twins friend. I'm eyeing 2015 as our big competitive bounce back year.

The trading hysteria has finally reached our top prospect in A ball.
The Twins can acquire a front line starter through free agency. Nobody wants to admit that the Twins have the resources to do it.

The Sano for Price trade talk reminds me of a trade of a top Latin American prospect (and others) for a 25 year old former 1st round pick (2nd overall) Starting Pitcher. Of course lots of others were involved... Josh Beckett, Mike Lowell and Guillermo Mota to the Boston Red Sox and Jesus Delgado, Harvey Garcia, Hanley Ramirez and Anibal Sanchez to the Florida Marlins. This trade (and actually Lowell closed another hole for the BOSox and Mota was flipped to Cleveland) was essential for the Red Sox' championships but I am not sure that they would do it again. Ramirez is a superstar and Sanchez a better than average SP, while Lowell is retired and Beckett has dropped to average level... but 2 rings are 2 rings.

Originally Posted by Highabove

The Twins can acquire a front line starter through free agency. Nobody wants to admit that the Twins have the resources to do it.

Well... the problem is that most "front line starters" would like 5+ year deals. The Twins (correctly) are not doing that . So their changes to get a top starter through Free Agency are nil. Unless they offer Liriano 1y $12.5 M contract (if they do not trade him) and he for some reason accepts

Why would Tampa Trade Price for a Twins prospect in A ball???
Unlike the Twins, Tampa does not have a problem developing their own Star Players.

Originally Posted by Highabove

Why would Tampa Trade Price for a Twins prospect in A ball???
Unlike the Twins, Tampa does not have a problem developing their own Star Players.

They wouldn't. It's called a hypothetical.

Originally Posted by Boom Boom

The Twins have all the time in the world to trade Sano if that's what they want to do.

Good point. But, if the Twins trade Liriano in the next few days then it will signal what they are open to doing this offseason, I think. There aren't many unrestricted top flight free agent SP's this year. It is likely that Liriano would be our best option, and so if they stand pat then I would be curious to see if they double down this offseason, and mortgage Sano to get an option better than Edwin Jackson, J. Shields (assuming the Rays don't pick up his '13 option), or Hamels (assuming the Phils don't extend him, or trade him to someone who does extend him).

I would explore a Sano-Felix trade. Sure, Felix is supposedly off-limits, but consider: Smoak has been a bust so far, and Ackley not much better.

Originally Posted by shs_59

GREAT POINT....in this case regarding Miguel Sano....Time is most definately the Twins friend.

Not really. There is a very real chance his value decreases from here on out. Going into this year he was considered a top 30 prospect by many people. Not much room to increase value but plenty of value to be lost. Unless he can get those K's under control his stock will seemingly fall. So, IF (and I can't stress that enough) Sano is a potential trade chip time is not your friend. On top of that the Twins are utterly devoid of pitching in the upper majors and on the roster right now.

Stock dropping, really? He's 19 and is holding own in a pitcher friendly A- league. He's hit 20 home runs already. Yes, he's striking out a lot and isn't going to progress through teh system quite as fast as the optimists had hoped, but this hardly means his stock is dropping. I'd also note that despite the .050 point drop in BA from Elizabethon to Beloit, his OBP has remained the same, which means he's taking A TON more walks... My guess is that he's probably letting a few too many called strikes go by, which is far easier to improve on than simply flailing away at pitches out of the zone.

I could see making a case that Arcia moves into the 1 spot simply because he's performing quite nicely at AA as a 22 year old, but that isn't because Sano is less of a propsect as much as it is that Arcia is becoming a nicer one, but let's be sensible. This kid has Miguel Cabrera potential, and that hasn't changed. Would I trade him for the right package? Sure, but those deals never happen.

Do you think we could get the great Mark Buehrle for a mere minor leaguer like Miguel Sano? Wow, what a deal! If Terry Ryan could swing this deal, he'd be as universally loved as...Mike Lynn!

Buehrle is only one who meets the criteria. By the way, he will likely deliver surplus value at 4/58, as he is in the middle of another very good year that no one is noticing.

A Sano-Buehrle trade straight up wouldn't be my first choice either but if they are chips in part of a larger deal then I would listen.

Originally Posted by Willihammer

Good point. But, if the Twins trade Liriano in the next few days then it will signal what they are open to doing this offseason, I think. There aren't many unrestricted top flight free agent SP's this year. It is likely that Liriano would be our best option, and so if they stand pat then I would be curious to see if they double down this offseason, and mortgage Sano to get an option better than Edwin Jackson, J. Shields (assuming the Rays don't pick up his '13 option), or Hamels (assuming the Phils don't extend him, or trade him to someone who does extend him).

I would explore a Sano-Felix trade. Sure, Felix is supposedly off-limits, but consider: Smoak has been a bust so far, and Ackley not much better.

This post is completely backwards. There are actually potentially more good FA pitchers this year than normal. Liriano, even pitching like he is right now, isn't at the top of that list. Toss in the fact that over the last 5 years been one of the worst pitchers in baseball and he starts looking worse and worse. Hamels is close to a #1 pitcher and is looking to get paid like one. Let's toss out a list of pitchers better than Liriano historically and potential FA's this year:

Cole Hamels
Zach Greinke
Edwin Jackson
R.A. Dickey
Gavin Floyd
Dan Haren
Colby Lewis
Shaun Marcum
Brandon McCarthy
Jake Peavy
Anibal Sanchez

As an example, Kenny Williams caught a lot of flack last off-season for waffling in terms of full rebuild, or full re-load mode. The White Sox are another team with good core of players but lack only 1 or 2 pieces, and they will likely finish just outside the last playoff spot.

If Baker or Gibson comes back and pitches at a high level, then what? The worst thing is to be unprepared for success.

Originally Posted by diehardtwinsfan

Stock dropping, really? He's 19 and is holding own in a pitcher friendly A- league. He's hit 20 home runs already. Yes, he's striking out a lot and isn't going to progress through teh system quite as fast as the optimists had hoped, but this hardly means his stock is dropping. I'd also note that despite the .050 point drop in BA from Elizabethon to Beloit, his OBP has remained the same, which means he's taking A TON more walks... My guess is that he's probably letting a few too many called strikes go by, which is far easier to improve on than simply flailing away at pitches out of the zone.

I could see making a case that Arcia moves into the 1 spot simply because he's performing quite nicely at AA as a 22 year old, but that isn't because Sano is less of a propsect as much as it is that Arcia is becoming a nicer one, but let's be sensible. This kid has Miguel Cabrera potential, and that hasn't changed. Would I trade him for the right package? Sure, but those deals never happen.

Not sure if you're responding to me or not but if you are you are misinterpreting my post. I didn't say his stock HAS dropped. I said it is more likely to drop than to rise. So if you're going to trade him the time is now. It's a question of risk management. Yes, he has high upside. But as with all young prospects there is a VERY real chance he never fulfills that potential.

Originally Posted by Oxtung

This post is completely backwards. There are actually potentially more good FA pitchers this year than normal. Liriano, even pitching like he is right now, isn't at the top of that list. Toss in the fact that over the last 5 years been one of the worst pitchers in baseball and he starts looking worse and worse. Hamels is close to a #1 pitcher and is looking to get paid like one. Let's toss out a list of pitchers better than Liriano historically and potential FA's this year:

The market for Liriano will be in the 3/30 range I think. High upside at relatively low risk.

Originally Posted by Oxtung

Cole Hamels - turned down 130m offer from Phils / too expensive / low-reward/$
Zach Greinke - likely to earn as much as Hamels / too expensive / low -reward/$
Edwin Jackson - good candidate - any interest in MN?
R.A. Dickey - 38 yrs old, any interest in coming back to MN?
Gavin Floyd - 3rd starter, low-reward/$
Dan Haren - back problems / declining fastball velocity / too expen sive / low-reward/$
Colby Lewis - backfill / innings eater type. might be worthwhile at low price
Shaun Marcum - bum elbow. backfill / innings eater type.
Brandon McCarthy - good candidate
Jake Peavy - interesting candidate at the right price
Anibal Sanchez - good candidate at right price / unproven success in AL

not all are more appealing than Liriano.

Originally Posted by Willihammer

The market for Liriano will be in the 3/30 range I think. High upside at relatively low risk. Not all are more appealing than Liriano.

Low risk? You're talking about committing ~10% of your team salary. That is risky even for players with good track records. Look at Morneau. You are talking about giving that to a pitcher that has been below league average the last 5 years. That is the definition of high risk.

Liriano vs. League since 2008

	ERA	WHIP	k/9	bb/9	IP/GS
Liriano	4.61	1.409	8.6	4.0	5.8
League	4.26	1.35	6.7	3.0	5.9

Advanced metrics tell a different story. Also Morneau is 6/80, a far cry from 3/30.

Of the players you listed before, all would command 3/30 or more with no chance of putting together seasons comparable to liriano circa 2006 or 2010. Yes, Liriano is inconsistent but at 3/30 it would not be an albatross and could easily return a surplus value, where as a deal for Hamels / Greinke who would command something like 5 / 140 or more and very quickly turn into an albatrosszx

Returning to the original point, the best bargain is on younger better pitchers under team control for next 2-4 years, namely Hernandez and Price. This combined with a 3/30m liriano deal and a return to form from either Baker or Gibson, contributions from Pavano, Blackburn, Hendriks, et al. at the back, and you are better prepared for success 2013-2015 or longer, rather than putting all your eggs in the Sano basket and floundering at the fringe of the playoff picture as the White Sox .cca 2012.