Thread: The Twins need to sign Liriano to a 2-3 year contract ASAP

IIRC, it isn't arbitration that is offered. It is a dollar offer that is high enough to qualify for a sandwich pick. Arbitration would indicate that an arbitrator would select from between a team offer and the player offer.

Fair enough, I misread your comment. I'm not a big fan of signing mediocre players, that's how you end up bad in 2014-2017. Either sign great players, or low cost bench players, but not mediocre players. I also don't agree with your implication that you cannot sign legit, big time FAs, and fix the minors both. Perhaps I am again misreading your post, but that seems to be the implication. Signing Greinke (or some other super expensive guy) does not effect how you draft and develop players.

Originally Posted by stringer bell

IIRC, it isn't arbitration that is offered. It is a dollar offer that is high enough to qualify for a sandwich pick. Arbitration would indicate that an arbitrator would select from between a team offer and the player offer.

Correct. If he declines, one sandwich pick in return.

Qualifying offer shud be in the $12.5m range.

The Twins starting rotation in 2013 will be atrocious without a Willingham or Span trade that nets us a elite pitching prospect that will be able to make the rotation next year. The Twins do not hand out large FA contracts! The largest FA contract ever offered in the Twins history was this last off-season for Willingham @ 3years and 21 million. The offense is good, not great. This team needs Willingham's RH bat more than we need Span. There are a few mid-to high minor guys that could make the leap next year.

As far a Liriano goes, the Twins will not go after a BIG fish in FA. A "sandwich" pick is probably less likely to make an impact (ever) as it is that Liriano can prove to be a solid pitcher for the rotation. The Twins will not be good in 2013, but they do need want to be competitive. Rolling the dice on Liriano needs to be done and by rolling the dice I mean offering a 3 yeart deal at $8-10 million a year. If he retains the present form, Liriano will be will worth the investment. If he reverts to a Jekyll and Hyde pitcher he will only be worth about half of that. His last two months alone has driven his trade value up considerably and unless one team falls in love with his potential and is willing to overpay with a soon-to-be ready pitching prospect, the Twins need to keep Liriano. I know thats not popular, but teams do see potential and as fans we see and hold on to the "warts" much more than the businessmen that are making these decisions.

Originally Posted by USAFChief

Qualifying offer shud be in the $12.5m range.

For shame Chief.

Originally Posted by snepp

For shame Chief.

Hey, I text. LOL. BTW I LMAO @ ur last. TY.

Originally Posted by USAFChief

Hey, I text. LOL. BTW I LMAO @ ur last. TY.

Get off my lawn.

Originally Posted by snepp

Get off my lawn.

heh heh

Last year Buerhle got 4 years and 58 million. I don't recall there being another good left-hander out there. The arbitration number is way too high for Liriano given Buerhle's contract. Wit a plan of offering the 12 million contract he Twins could get Liriano for a year, overpaying, and have a little more time to sort out which pitcher he really is or risk losing him. The question is which is more valuable. A sandwich pick or a decent prospect and a middling one.

Originally Posted by SpiritofVodkaDave

It should also be noted he had the lowest FIP in the AL in 2010, so its not like these last 10 starts have come out of no where.

He was BRILLIANT in 2010. Made a believer out of me and had me going into 2011 excited that we had our Frankie back. Then 2011 happened. There is nothing but speculation to the idea that Frankie would accept a team friendly deal. And while some like to throw around "prove the negative" fallacies to answer that charge, it's nevertheless true. There is virtually no reason for Frankie to take a discounted deal at this point.

And, to me, anything more than an incentive laden deal with minimal guaranteed money is a bad investment. Just because you have money doesn't mean you have to feel compelled to spend it on high risk bets.

Liriano is better than anyone we would acquire via trade or FA. Even if we only get "half a season" out of him it's still half a season more than any of our other starters.

I would rather spend twice as much on him than I would to sign two Marquis/Hernandez/Ortiz/Ponson's. You can't open up a season with Diamond, Walters, Blackburn, Devries, whatever ****ty FA we sign. You just can't.

Originally Posted by notoriousgod71

Liriano is better than anyone we would acquire via trade or FA (about 25% of the time, and when he's not having mental issues). Even if we only get "half a season" out of him it's still half a season more than any of our other starters.

I would rather spend twice as much on him than I would to sign two Marquis/Hernandez/Ortiz/Ponson's. You can't open up a season with Diamond, Walters, Blackburn, Devries, whatever ****ty FA we sign. You just can't.

Fixed

Originally Posted by notoriousgod71

Liriano is better than anyone we would acquire via trade or FA. Even if we only get "half a season" out of him it's still half a season more than any of our other starters.

I would rather spend twice as much on him than I would to sign two Marquis/Hernandez/Ortiz/Ponson's. You can't open up a season with Diamond, Walters, Blackburn, Devries, whatever ****ty FA we sign. You just can't.

First, lets not use "our other starters" as the measuring bar for successful starting pitching. Haha.

Second, I agree with the general premise that it's far more likely we sign Liriano and get success out of him than enticing a FA pitcher to come to our loser team and getting 1st or 2nd starter success out of him. But that doesn't necessarily mean we should do it if it requires a $12M/yr commitment, which may end up being like 65% of the money we have to spend next year. That money needs to fill about 3 rotation spots, as well as a middle infielder and other needs.

Plus, Liriano may not even want to be here. Put yourself in Liriano's shoes...he was an absolute phenom in 2006 for a few months, but never got paid before needed TJ surgery. His salary has gone up during his arbitration years, but did you ever get the sense he was really happy here? It's not like there's a huge Latin presence on this team (since departure of Santana, Luis Castillo, etc.) or the coaching staff. Gardy threw him under the bus on numerous occasions publicly, even subtly blaming him for some of Mauer's injuries early in 2011. I think he can get paid more somewhere else, and he may be ready to do that.

And also (not to be a Liriano downer), but I'll say it again: When has Liriano ever pitched well in situations when it really mattered? He's sucked in September even in his "good" years, either because of durability or composure. As good as he's been lately, his numbers are inflated by starts like the two against OAK (or his no-hitter against CWS last year) where he completely dominates, then gets annihilated a few starts later. Heading into a contract year, his ERA is still at 4.81, with a 1.40 WHIP.

For those of you who are on the "Resign Liriano NOW!!!" bus why is this year any different than previous seasons? Here is a chart showing the best stretches for the given year as well as his end of season ERA.

Year	GS	ERA	WHIP	BB/9	K/9	Season ERA
'09	8	3.85	1.33	3.9	7.2	5.80
'11	7	2.20	0.98	3.8	8.0	5.09
'12	10	2.86	1.05	4.0	10.9	4.82

Each year he had an above average to great stretch. Each year, over the course of the whole year, he has been a below average to terrible pitcher. While Liriano has been very good over the last couple of months we have seen similar periods in each of his bad years. So what has changed for Liriano that this time his dominance is here to stay?

Why would you let your best pitcher walk? Just plain stupid!

Originally Posted by Top Gun

Why would you let your best pitcher walk? Just plain stupid!

I hope baseball scouts think Frankie is as good as his numbers because I don't think he is. Yes, he can make hitters look silly and he will have periods where he is as tough as they come, but 1) he is an injury waiting to happen 2) his mindset is too fragile to be an ace 3) he will cost a lot of money to keep and 4) since he is a free agent at the end of the season, he is no sure bet to return to Minnesota even if the Twins want him to return. Add to this that Liriano has brought his value back from near nothing to substantial it is wise to trade him and get what they can.

Originally Posted by Oxtung

For those of you who are on the "Resign Liriano NOW!!!" bus why is this year any different than previous seasons? Here is a chart showing the best stretches for the given year as well as his end of season ERA.

Stats make the Kool-Aid taste funny.....

ESPN's Jim Bowden reports the Phillies and Cole Hamels are working on a long-term extension "which could end up" in the range of six years and $142-144 million.

This is considerably higher than the six-year, $130 million contract that was reported earlier this week. The Phillies have intensified their efforts to sign Hamels, though it's not yet clear if this would be enough to get it done. The reported offer would pay Hamels significantly more than the $127.5 million extension the Giants gave Matt Cain earlier this season.


Source: Jim Bowden on Twitter

Originally Posted by Top Gun

ESPN's Jim Bowden reports the Phillies and Cole Hamels are working on a long-term extension "which could end up" in the range of six years and $142-144 million.

This is considerably higher than the six-year, $130 million contract that was reported earlier this week. The Phillies have intensified their efforts to sign Hamels, though it's not yet clear if this would be enough to get it done. The reported offer would pay Hamels significantly more than the $127.5 million extension the Giants gave Matt Cain earlier this season.


Source: Jim Bowden on Twitter

Wow. That's $24M/year. Holy cow.

Originally Posted by Oxtung

For those of you who are on the "Resign Liriano NOW!!!" bus why is this year any different than previous seasons? Here is a chart showing the best stretches for the given year as well as his end of season ERA.

Year	GS	ERA	WHIP	BB/9	K/9	Season ERA
'09	8	3.85	1.33	3.9	7.2	5.80
'11	7	2.20	0.98	3.8	8.0	5.09
'12	10	2.86	1.05	4.0	10.9	4.82

Each year he had an above average to great stretch. Each year, over the course of the whole year, he has been a below average to terrible pitcher. While Liriano has been very good over the last couple of months we have seen similar periods in each of his bad years. So what has changed for Liriano that this time his dominance is here to stay?

That's cute that you completely left 2010 off.

Also his k/9 rate of 10.9 is the big difference...................