2013 Starting Rotation

Next year the Twins obviously need to blow up the starting rotation. Pavano, Liriano are good as gone. Any trade is unlikely to return a starter for next season. At this point Diamond is a lock, Hendricks is a probability, Gibson is unlikely until May or June, Blackburn has shown nothing this season (with luck maybe we can trade him this winter), and even if they bring back Baker on a new contract with incentives, it will be at earliest July before he's recovered to a point of being an okay pitcher. The Twins will need to be active in the free agent market this winter as they don't have any trade chips that can return a good starter for next season (unless they use someone like Sano - but then what's the point). I think they will need 3 starters. Using the list from MLB Trade Rumors who should the Twins go after - remember this is the Twins. They won't spend $100M+ on Grenke or Hamels. The 3 at the top of my list are Colby Lewis, Brandon McCarthy and Anibal Sanchez.

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2011/04/2013-mlb-free-agents.html

1)
2)
3)
4) Diamond
5) Blackburn

From how we stand right now, Pavano will be back in AUG & get another 10 starts. If those go well, they will offer Pavano another contract or arbitration (1 yr deal w/incentives???) IMO.
Dont love the idea, but what are your other options.
Hendriks & Gibson are both gonna get real considerations next yr also & I havent ruled out Scot Baker back at a reduced/incentive deal.
Cant truly look ahead till after seeing if we get anything at deadline for Frankie/Denard & whether we truly enter the FA race for the first time.

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Originally Posted by greengoblinrulz

From how we stand right now, Pavano will be back in AUG & get another 10 starts. If those go well, they will offer Pavano another contract or arbitration (1 yr deal w/incentives???) IMO.
Dont love the idea, but what are your other options.
Hendriks & Gibson are both gonna get real considerations next yr also & I havent ruled out Scot Baker back at a reduced/incentive deal.
Cant truly look ahead till after seeing if we get anything at deadline for Frankie/Denard & whether we truly enter the FA race for the first time.

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No on Pavano.

Gibson, Hendricks, Broomberg, Blackburn, Baker (i think they bring him back on a Matt Capps like deal), and probably two FAs will compete for four spots in the rotation. Diamond is the only lock at this point; how odd is that!

As for the FAs, I think it will depend on how the team finishes whether or not we take a few from the scrap heap or sign a Marcum type.

We have what 20-25 mill to spend next winter if payroll isn't cut again. Why would you spend any of that on Baker when you have no idea if he will pitch next year and if he does will be any good?

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Originally Posted by Winston Smith

We have what 20-25 mill to spend next winter if payroll isn't cut again. Why would you spend any of that on Baker when you have no idea if he will pitch next year and if he does will be any good?

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Because Baker is a front line starter when healthy. A two year contract, with the second year being an option would help alleviate some risk. Say 5 mil the first year with a 9 mil option. Any FA pitcher we sign that has a track record will want a long term contract; there's risk with any pitcher when you're not going year to year. I'd rather have Baker than another Marquis or Livan Hernandez...

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Originally Posted by PseudoSABR

Because Baker is a front line starter when healthy. A two year contract, with the second year being an option would help alleviate some risk. Say 5 mil the first year with a 9 mil option. Any FA pitcher we sign that has a track record will want a long term contract; there's risk with any pitcher when you're not going year to year. I'd rather have Baker than another Marquis or Livan Hernandez...

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The $9M option seems about right, but the $5M first year is too high unless it is $2M base with $3M in incentives.

For Baker next yr (or Pavano either) Im way willing to pay these guys in incentives but unfortunately they will take the most guarranteed money they can find AND then see about incentives.
Id give both 5m + incentives (still less than Blackburn) & if they give me 32 starts, it is WELL worth it.
Problem is, Im sick/tired of the same pitchers here & want change for change sake.
Im willing to say (if I had a say) that Diamond/Gibson/Hendriks are in the rotation. Means we need 2 solid guys. Depends on what happens in the next 10 days in trades, but while I would love Grienke, an innings eater like Ed Jackson is very valuable.

Brandon McCarthy (5/54, 10.8/year)
Scott Diamond
Anibal Sanchez (5/48.5, 9.7/year)
Joe Saunders (2/13, 6.5/year)
Kyle Gibson

If we (the Twins) don't get a nice package of prospects for Liriano, then we keep him and offer him arbitration. We go out a sign Edwin Jackson for 2-3 years at 8-9 mil a year (like Pavano got). Diamond for the 3 spot. Gibson 4 spot. Blackburn, Hendricks, Baker. Heck, even bring back Pavano for 1-2 mil with bonuses. I think you could be really competitve with these pitchers in the Central. We might even be able to sign Greinke if the Pohlads can dig into there pocker like the Wild. I think you could get Greinke for 18-20 mil for 4-5 years. Morneau is off the books the year after next and it looks like we have some help in Parmalee for 1B.

whether we like it or not, Blackie will be there. Diamond is a lock as well at this point. I suspect the team will have an open spot for Hendricks/Gibson/minor league FA to compete for. Hopefully the go out and get at least 2 decent starters.

I can't see any team, other than the Twins, offering even a 1 year deal for Pavano.

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Originally Posted by PseudoSABR

1) Deduno
2) De Vries
3) Hendriks
4) Diamond
5) Blackburn

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Excuse me, I have to go put a plastic bag on my head now...

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Originally Posted by Docsilly

We go out a sign Edwin Jackson for 2-3 years at 8-9 mil a year (like Pavano got).

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It's going to require at least 3 years, $30m to get Jackson, maybe more. He's only 28 years old. It would probably take four years to get him to the Twins.

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Originally Posted by Docsilly

If we (the Twins) don't get a nice package of prospects for Liriano, then we keep him and offer him arbitration. We go out a sign Edwin Jackson for 2-3 years at 8-9 mil a year (like Pavano got). Diamond for the 3 spot. Gibson 4 spot. Blackburn, Hendricks, Baker. Heck, even bring back Pavano for 1-2 mil with bonuses. I think you could be really competitve with these pitchers in the Central. We might even be able to sign Greinke if the Pohlads can dig into there pocker like the Wild. I think you could get Greinke for 18-20 mil for 4-5 years. Morneau is off the books the year after next and it looks like we have some help in Parmalee for 1B.

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I don't think the Twins will be in the mix for any FA pitcher that would require 100 mil contract. I'll believe it when it happens.

Anyway, this is how I'd like to see it happen:

1. FA acquisition (second tier, Jackson-level of pitcher)
2. Baker
3. Gibson/Blackburn (Blackburn early, Gibson later)
4. Hendriks
5. Diamond

It could be an awful rotation, it could be a serviceable one. Hard to say with almost every spot being a wildcard.

I'd cut and run on Pavano. I don't think he has anything left in the tank and he's going to be 37 next season.

Tcrose3636 - I could go for Saunders as well. After Joe Nathan had Tommy John, it took him a season and an half to be decent (about midway through 2011), this year he is back to normal - and he had one of the most stringent rehab stints of anyone. I don't see Baker being his old self until at least July of 2013, and Gibson not much before that. Docsilly - If you think Edwin Jackson will sign for that little with Scott Boras as his agent, you're dreaming, not to mention this Twins regime signing a pitcher like Zack Grenke to more than a 4-year deal. I don't see them spending much more than $10M a year for any pitcher. It's one of the reasons we're in the predicament we're in now.

RP - Yeah, that looks pretty ugly with a lot of hoping and praying. I could definetly see it going that way but I hope the deadline passes with maybe a Liriano trade and then they go out heavily in FA to get 3 second teir starting pitchers.

I put Joe Saunders in my rotation pick cause he would fit well with the Lefty/Righty mix and I think the Twins were high on him a few years back...but I could be making that up, and he pitched well last year and this year is going pretty good for him too.

It is absolutely impossible to predict any starter for 2013 except Scott Diamond.

If Frankie Liriano is still around, but that's a complete coin flip.
If Cole De Vries pitches well in his next start, then his odds go up a lot.
If Samuel Deduno stops walking batters just before giving up a home run, or throwing wildly to first and home, then his odds go up. He's got talent.
If Liam Hendriks develops better damage control, then he's in.
If Brian Duensing gets his tight snap back, he'd be fine.

From there, the odds go down fast. Both Duensing and Swarzak have worked better out of the bull pen. Gray might be a possibility... I was high on Bromberg before the broken arm... Gibson might still make it next year... Wimmers will probably wind up with TJ surgery (ain't it the way?)... Walters looked strictly marginal.

Spring training will be another cattle call. That's the one thing we can be sure of.