Thread: Trade Span or Trade Willingham?

Originally Posted by shanewahl

Why on earth would you sell some of that for AA pitching prospects?

Because the team has two centerfielders on the roster, a host of centerfielders in AA, a decent offense, and an absolutely wretched, awful, last in baseball starting rotation.

The concept of "net gain" shouldn't be that hard to grasp. Trading Span does very little to damage the team's offense but it does a mountain of good if Span is replaced with a better than league average starter.

And in case you haven't noticed, starting pitching is the hardest thing to pick up on the FA market. You end up overpaying in both money and years to get an average guy that has a good chance of ending the contract either ineffective, on the DL, or both. I'm not against the Twins going after one guy on the market but two? That's just throwing money at a problem that probably can't be fixed externally... Not in one year, anyway. Pick up one starter this offseason, another the next, and round out the rotation with Gibson, Hendriks, Diamond, and maybe a starter for Span.

Originally Posted by rocketpig

Because the team has two centerfielders on the roster, a host of centerfielders in AA, a decent offense, and an absolutely wretched, awful, last in baseball starting rotation.

The concept of "net gain" shouldn't be that hard to grasp. Trading Span does very little to damage the team's offense but it does a mountain of good if Span is replaced with a better than league average starter.

And in case you haven't noticed, starting pitching is the hardest thing to pick up on the FA market. You end up overpaying in both money and years to get an average guy that has a good chance of ending the contract either ineffective, on the DL, or both. I'm not against the Twins going after one guy on the market but two? That's just throwing money at a problem that probably can't be fixed externally... Not in one year, anyway. Pick up one starter this offseason, another the next, and round out the rotation with Gibson, Hendriks, Diamond, and maybe a starter for Span.

Span is not merely a CF, he is also the leadoff hitter. I am not sold on Ben Revere filling that role as of yet, and even if I were, that still merely moves him from position at the top of the order to another. And there is no clear indication that Aaron Hicks or Joe Benson are going to be ready to be Twins at the beginning or middle or even end of next season.

"Trading Span does very little damage to the team's offense"--that's false. Rather blatantly false.

The FA market is going to be pretty good this coming year. And it isn't like Edwin Jackson was going to break the bank (as an example from this year). Marcum, Dempster, etc. are not going to break the bank next year or the the next few. I would also look at trading for a still-in-arbitration-years guy if nothing else. Adding two good-very good pitchers for $20 million isn't impossible at all.

Originally Posted by PseudoSABR

This average offense has been 7th to 6th in WAR in all of MLB since the beginning of June. Yes, small sample size, but that sample size also has Plouffe and Revere playing everyday. Are we the bottom fifth offense of April/May? No. But we're probably not quite as good as lately either, but there's reason to believe we'll be top 10 (a top third in league/all of baseball), which I suppose could be construed to be average, save that we hit in a pitcher's park. Our offense need only be 'statistically' average if our pitching talent is actually average to compete (thanks AL Central!), because of our home park. Having a statically average (or rather top third) offense in Target Field is a boon, any way you cut it.

The Twins would be stupid not to capitalize on the offense in 2013 and 2014.

Precisely.

Originally Posted by TheLeviathan

WAR seems to be an odd stat to choose to measure this. I can't find a site that lets me order team stats in such a way, but by OPS and runs scored this team over the course of the entire season has been average. Could they be slightly above average going forward....sure, but there are plenty of reasons to question the last month and a half as sustainable.

Even if this offense can be around 10th in the league, it's still a razor thin margin of error going forward to be an average hitting and average pitching team. And that's if we can actually rely on FA and returning injured players to boost our pitching in 2013 to average. Worse yet, we'd be electing to take that slim chance with no margin for error at the expense of an opportunity now to utilize very marketable talent that we could deal to help reduce our future organizational weak points. That trade-off doesn't seem worth it. (But again, I'm not saying dump just to dump. The offers for guys like Span and Hammer need to address need with legit talent)

Over the course of the entire season, yes. But no one was talking about that, were they? Going forward is what matters.

A question back on point...

If replacing Willingham's numbers is such an easy thing to do, why is everybody hyperventilating ove what he has done so far? I would contend that right-handed power hitting outfielders that come relatively cheaply are not that easy to acquire. Why else is would he be such a hot commodity in the trade market right now?

Originally Posted by shanewahl

Span is not merely a CF, he is also the leadoff hitter. I am not sold on Ben Revere filling that role as of yet, and even if I were, that still merely moves him from position at the top of the order to another. And there is no clear indication that Aaron Hicks or Joe Benson are going to be ready to be Twins at the beginning or middle or even end of next season.

"Trading Span does very little damage to the team's offense"--that's false. Rather blatantly false.

The FA market is going to be pretty good this coming year. And it isn't like Edwin Jackson was going to break the bank (as an example from this year). Marcum, Dempster, etc. are not going to break the bank next year or the the next few. I would also look at trading for a still-in-arbitration-years guy if nothing else. Adding two good-very good pitchers for $20 million isn't impossible at all.

one of the problematic things with your argument(s) is that you're not doing a very good job of conceptualizing the odds. even if the twins were interested in spending $25 million on a couple of free agent starters this year, there is no guarantee that they'd be able to lure them, not to mention a guy like dempster (who will be 36 y.o. , btw). are you going to keep your franchise from moving on and building assets for a small chance to land two quailty pitchers, one who will likely be on a steep production decline, and will still only give you two/fifths of a quality rotation? sounds like a bill smith move. the better value is clearly building with young talent whose better years are ahead of them and afford salary flexibility. i appreciate your optimism and you can be all in and compete every year - it's possible, but not unless your pipeline is full in the minors and ours isn't.

Originally Posted by shanewahl

Span is not merely a CF, he is also the leadoff hitter. I am not sold on Ben Revere filling that role as of yet, and even if I were, that still merely moves him from position at the top of the order to another. And there is no clear indication that Aaron Hicks or Joe Benson are going to be ready to be Twins at the beginning or middle or even end of next season.

"Trading Span does very little damage to the team's offense"--that's false. Rather blatantly false.

The FA market is going to be pretty good this coming year. And it isn't like Edwin Jackson was going to break the bank (as an example from this year). Marcum, Dempster, etc. are not going to break the bank next year or the the next few. I would also look at trading for a still-in-arbitration-years guy if nothing else. Adding two good-very good pitchers for $20 million isn't impossible at all.

Edwin Jackson didn't break the bank last season because he took a favorable one year contract so he could break the bank this season. Just like every other offseason, starting pitchers are going to go at a premium.

Again, it's all about team net gain. The dropoff between a Span/Revere/Willingham outfield versus a Revere/Willingham/Parmelee (or a FA Hunter and later filled in by Hicks, Benson, Arcia) is minimal compared to the gain you will get from replacing Sam-&^%$ing-Deduno with a real starting pitcher.

I'm not crazy about the idea of trading away valuable players. But I am interested in making this a better team moving forward. With all the outfield prospects coming through the system, it makes sense to trade off a piece while it's valuable to fill a gaping hole in starting pitching, a hole that will not be filled solely through free agency. The Twins simply need too many pitchers. To find enough on the FA market to compete, they'd have to drop $30m+ on FA pitching in 2013. Do you really expect them to do that?

Finding a corner outfielder on the FA market is one of the easiest things to do for a general manager. Finding a starting pitcher on the FA market is the hardest thing to do, period. Finding multiple quality starting pitchers is pretty much impossible, even if you're the Yankees.

Willinham is their biggest free agent signing ever. 21 million for three years. Do people really think they will go out and sign two big time pitchers this offseason? They need to make some trades.

Originally Posted by mike wants wins

Willinham is their biggest free agent signing ever. 21 million for three years. Do people really think they will go out and sign two big time pitchers this offseason? They need to make some trades.

This.

1. It's unlikely that the Twins will spend the $25m+ (per season) required to sign two quality FA starters.

2. It's unlikely that the Twins will be able to attract two quality FA starters.

Random thought: Joe Mauer would make a hell of a leadoff hitter.

Originally Posted by mike wants wins

Willinham is their biggest free agent signing ever. 21 million for three years. Do people really think they will go out and sign two big time pitchers this offseason? They need to make some trades.

Didn't you hear? We can combo Waldrop, Slama, and a few other AAA filler for a quality guy!

Originally Posted by shanewahl

Over the course of the entire season, yes. But no one was talking about that, were they? Going forward is what matters.

Going forward we can be concerned about the health of Mauer, the health and age of Willingham, the fact that Plouffe's June is highly unlikely, Revere's walk rate and BABIP, Carroll's June spike, and Doumit's .800 OPS June. Just cherry-picking one month to project a year or more in the future is rife with potential problems. Could all those things maintain? Absolutely, and I hope many of them do.

But this team is still facing a major pitching shortage for the next few years and banking on sinking 100-200 million dollars to fix that in the offseason is ludicrous. Everyone is always looking for pitching, it's not like we'll have the market cornered.

Originally Posted by SpiritofVodkaDave

Random thought: Joe Mauer would make a hell of a leadoff hitter.

I don't disagree with this thought, though he doesn't have great speed and it is too unconventional for the Twins to try. Other than a lack of speed, what more could you want. The amount of pitches he sees alone would make it worth it. Seriously, how frustrating would it be for an opposing pitcher to have a 9-12 pitch first at bat to start a game?

Originally Posted by TheLeviathan

Going forward we can be concerned about the health of Mauer, the health and age of Willingham, the fact that Plouffe's June is highly unlikely, Revere's walk rate and BABIP, Carroll's June spike, and Doumit's .800 OPS June. Just cherry-picking one month to project a year or more in the future is rife with potential problems. Could all those things maintain? Absolutely, and I hope many of them do.

But this team is still facing a major pitching shortage for the next few years and banking on sinking 100-200 million dollars to fix that in the offseason is ludicrous. Everyone is always looking for pitching, it's not like we'll have the market cornered.

$100-200 million? I am not talking about Greinke or Hamels or Anibal Sanchez. I would say that this year's FA market other than the Buerhle deal was fairly reasonable. Dempster is not going to need more than 3 years. Marcum at 4/50 is likely the top end for him. Even getting two guys like that can be done for under $100, and that wasn't even what I was talking about doing! No need to exaggerate.

So you plan to convince a 36 year old career NL pitcher to come to the AL's worst team and then convince Marcum to join the same awful AL team? Yeah I'm sure we will be the highlight team for both of them. If we get Marcum I'd be happy but more than that is unlikely at best.

Originally Posted by chopper0080

I don't disagree with this thought, though he doesn't have great speed and it is too unconventional for the Twins to try. Other than a lack of speed, what more could you want. The amount of pitches he sees alone would make it worth it. Seriously, how frustrating would it be for an opposing pitcher to have a 9-12 pitch first at bat to start a game?

Agreed. I wonder if the time will come when a manager truly puts his batting order from best hitter to worst hitter. Going on the premise that each spot in the order is worth about 15 at-bats over the year, how that would compare to a more traditional lineup.

I'm glad I've avoided this thread.

Originally Posted by TheLeviathan

So you plan to convince a 36 year old career NL pitcher to come to the AL's worst team and then convince Marcum to join the same awful AL team? Yeah I'm sure we will be the highlight team for both of them. If we get Marcum I'd be happy but more than that is unlikely at best.

A: he is 35 and still very good.
B: he chose to stay with the horrible Cubs this year.
C: the Twins are not as terrible as you seem to wish them to be (now or in 2013, 2014, and 2015).
D: I wouldn't count on getting both, no. But trying to actually improve the team without trading away offense (and ending up even in the W-L column between 2012 and 2013) seems worth a try. The trade-Span crowd underestimates what he actually does for the Twins.

Originally Posted by Badsmerf

I'm glad I've avoided this thread.

I agree. There is not much good that one can say about the posts.