Thread: Dodgers interested in Willingham

Again, not sure how willing the Twins are to move him but a package around Zach Lee could be interesting.

http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/blog/da...ugh-to-get-him

Zach Lee, Kenley Jansen and Jerry Sands. Let this be the starting point.

Who exactly do the Dodgers have in the way of pitching that would interest us in moving the Hammer?

The Twins should be interested in trading him. His value will never be greater than it is now. I do not think he can bring a Zach Lee level prospect back.

If he and Doumit are still around in 2014, the Twins will have two aging players in decline that are significant defensive liabilities.

Originally Posted by jorgenswest

If he and Doumit are still around in 2014, the Twins will have two aging players in decline that are significant defensive liabilities.

Who will cost them $10.5m combined. I wouldn't worry about it too much.

Weighing against a trade is this long-term issue: will shipping Willingham so soon after signing a 3-year deal make future free agents think twice about signing? FA isn't usually a big part of the Twins' "game", but this off-season in particular we think they should be in the market for some pitching. Sure, if some teams knocks you over with a deal for JWill you have to listen, but for more equal deals, maybe you have to play the long game.

Originally Posted by ashburyjohn

Weighing against a trade is this long-term issue: will shipping Willingham so soon after signing a 3-year deal make future free agents think twice about signing? FA isn't usually a big part of the Twins' "game", but this off-season in particular we think they should be in the market for some pitching. Sure, if some teams knocks you over with a deal for JWill you have to listen, but for more equal deals, maybe you have to play the long game.

I think the impact on potential FAs would be minimal. On the other hand, the Twins ALWAYS need right handed mashers. If they trade Josh, they just have to go find another. So unless the receiving team is willing to massively overpay, what's the point?

Lots of "team friendly" contracts awarded to decline phase players adds to the cycle of mediocrity.

Mediocre teams always have guys like Carroll, Doumit and Willingham on the rosters. They are great in the clubhouse. Their contributions look good in the context of a below .500 team. In a few years, we can continue the cycle and replace them with different decline phase players on team friendly commitments.

Originally Posted by ashburyjohn

Weighing against a trade is this long-term issue: will shipping Willingham so soon after signing a 3-year deal make future free agents think twice about signing? FA isn't usually a big part of the Twins' "game", but this off-season in particular we think they should be in the market for some pitching. Sure, if some teams knocks you over with a deal for JWill you have to listen, but for more equal deals, maybe you have to play the long game.

This argument is a reach. Willingham would be going to a contender in the later part of his career, something many players would love the chance to have. The Twins have little choice but to move an OF at some point in the next year. Arcia looks like he will be knocking on the door sooner than later, with Hicks emerging this year and Benson on his way back the Twins could field an entirely rookie OF next year if they wanted IMO. Get value out of Willingham if you can, his production will be missed, but not unrecoverable.

Originally Posted by jorgenswest

Lots of "team friendly" contracts awarded to decline phase players adds to the cycle of mediocrity.

Mediocre teams always have guys like Carroll, Doumit and Willingham on the rosters. They are great in the clubhouse. Their contributions look good in the context of a below .500 team. In a few years, we can continue the cycle and replace them with different decline phase players on team friendly commitments.

Almost every good team has decline phase contracts in play at any given moment as well. It's part of the FA market. You pay guys for their best years and part of the deal is that you have to pay a little when they might not be so good.

The key is to minimize those contracts and try to rarely pay guys past their age 35 seasons. The Twins have Doumit and Willingham for two more seasons. Let's stop pretending that they're both signed through their age 38 seasons.

After all, if they wanted "good clubhouse guys", they could have paid more for the older, crappier version of Josh Willingham they already had on the roster. They didn't do that.

Originally Posted by Badsmerf

Willingham would be going to a contender in the later part of his career, something many players would love the chance to have.

You raise a good counterpoint. A lot depends on the individual player - a move to the west coast might affect Willingham more (or less) than some other player - so a lot depends on the GM's assessment of the total picture. It could indeed be the case that Willingham would have been just as happy with the Dodgers had they offered the same price, so that the Twins end up facilitating his getting onto the right team at the right price, if the trade happens. I think a large aspect of the assessment has to be the human factor. Players don't come to as team as a free agent just to be a chip to be bargained away later, even though everyone understands that "it's a business". I trust Terry Ryan's instincts in this regard a lot better than I trusted Bill Smith's. I will still be surprised if Willingham gets traded in his first year with the Twins.

Originally Posted by rocketpig

Almost every good team has decline phase contracts in play at any given moment as well. It's part of the FA market. You pay guys for their best years and part of the deal is that you have to pay a little when they might not be so good.

The key is to minimize those contracts and try to rarely pay guys past their age 35 seasons. The Twins have Doumit and Willingham for two more seasons. Let's stop pretending that they're both signed through their age 38 seasons.

After all, if they wanted "good clubhouse guys", they could have paid more for the older, crappier version of Josh Willingham they already had on the roster. They didn't do that.

Turn that 35 into 32, unless we are talking about HOF-caliber players and I would agree with that...

Originally Posted by thrylos98

Turn that 35 into 32, unless we are talking about HOF-caliber players and I would agree with that...

It all depends on what you're paying the guy. Willingham makes $7m per year. For even 3/4 of his current production, that's a fair value.

On the other hand, the Carroll signing was a bad one because of his age, the length of contract, his position, and his age.

If you ONLY target 28 year old free agents, you're going to overpay in both years and money. Look at guys like Crawford. Is that good value?

The idea of Willingham being traded is interesting. On one hand, he is one of if not the best Twins offensive weapon and his swing is built for Target Field and is signed to a pretty solid contract. On the other hand, he has had injuries to his back in the past and he is easily having the best offensive season of his career. I don't think his stock will ever be higher then it will be right now, so I can understand why TR would trade him. I read on MLBTR that Ryan would have to be blown away to trade Hammer, and that is a pretty good position to be in.

Originally Posted by thrylos98

Turn that 35 into 32, unless we are talking about HOF-caliber players and I would agree with that...

As long as you limit the years and overall value of the contract there shouldn't be any reason to avoid productive players in their early 30's. The problem is when somebody commits to Jayson Werth or Andre Ethier. Or guys like Mark Buehrle/CJ wilson.

I'm all for trading Willingham as long as the Twins are getting a nice package of prospects back.

Kemp+Kershaw+Loney

Originally Posted by SpiritofVodkaDave

Kemp+Kershaw+Loney

Loney?? Because this team needs more first basemen? Plus they already have a first baseman with his exact skill set only 40 points higher in career average and 60 points higher in career OBP. James Loney is a poor man's Joe Mauer just without the ability to play catcher.

Loney might actually help the Twins chances with that proposal because the Dodgers have been trying to trade him for two years if my memory serves me correctly.

Originally Posted by jwestbrock

Loney?? Because this team needs more first basemen? Plus they already have a first baseman with his exact skill set only 40 points higher in career average and 60 points higher in career OBP. James Loney is a poor man's Joe Mauer just without the ability to play catcher.

Loney might actually help the Twins chances with that proposal because the Dodgers have been trying to trade him for two years if my memory serves me correctly.

That was the supposed Johan trade offer.. or at least what Twins fans hoped for.

Originally Posted by notoriousgod71

That was the supposed Johan trade offer.. or at least what Twins fans hoped for.

It was reported somewhere actually, the debate on BYTO was "is this enough?" and the consensus was a resounding no unless they included billingsley as well.

Or maybe it was Kemp+Kershaw+Billingsley for Santana and everyone wanted Loney as well?


Either way, I'm still glad we got 1.5 seasons of Jon Rauch and 1 season of JJ hardy instead!

I can't see the team moving Willingham for anything less than a package of prospects including a top prospect. He means that much to this as his power plays at Target field unlike any other player on this roster. That being said, if a team is desperate and an offer like that comes across, then yu have to make the move.