Thread: Action Plan for the Second Half of 2012--Part 1

Originally Posted by mike wants wins

Really? You think he makes a play that no other MIF would make more often than 1 time every 10-15 games? How many opportunities are there to even make a play that is a great play? I doubt there are even that many opportunities, let alone that many made.

How many speculative interrogatories can one paragraph hold? I'll try to answer, based on watching every game this year. 1) Yes 2) "No other"? Hard to answer a speculation this vague, and I don't recall characterizing his plays as ones "no other" can make, it's safe to say based on the eye test that Casilla has made good-to-great "rangy" plays and/or agile DP pivots in virtually every game he has appeared in, and most importantly in the Twins situation, he's doing it at a tiny fraction of the MLB average 2B salary. Which is also in contrast to some of the repeatedly shoddy play shown at 2B by recent Twins' opponents in June and July. 3) 2B year-in/year-out usually have the most Total Chances of any position player (other than 1B), and given the hole frequently at first with a man on base, plus bunt coverages, are required to cover the most ground in the infield. 4) More speculation, less of a question, see the answer to #3

It looks to me like Florimon's upside would be a low OBP, good speed and defense, bottom of the order guy. He isn't allergic to XBH, but he doesn't make solid contact often enough to put up good power numbers. That doesn't scream MLB regular. I still am holding out hope that his hitting improves to a point where he can be in a big league lineup and wow us fans with his defense.

Back to the Alexi/Jamie/ Brian trio. We all know what we can get from Carroll--versatility, steady defense, OK OBP and no power. That absolutely says "utility infielder". It makes sense to me to decide whether Casilla is worth keeping in 2013--as noted above he hasn't played in over 100 games in a season in his career, but so far he's been healthy. Carroll could start once a week at short and once a week at second to rest the two younger players. If Dozier continues to spiral, especially on defense, start Carroll or Florimon there and if Casilla can't get it going by the end of this month, make the decision that he's not part of the future (DFA him whatever). Maybe Alexi can make himself tradeable, maybe he can get a contract for next year or maybe he gets nontendered in the winter.

Originally Posted by stringer bell

It looks to me like Florimon's upside would be a low OBP, good speed and defense, bottom of the order guy. He isn't allergic to XBH, but he doesn't make solid contact often enough to put up good power numbers. That doesn't scream MLB regular. I still am holding out hope that his hitting improves to a point where he can be in a big league lineup and wow us fans with his defense.

Back to the Alexi/Jamie/ Brian trio. We all know what we can get from Carroll--versatility, steady defense, OK OBP and no power. That absolutely says "utility infielder". It makes sense to me to decide whether Casilla is worth keeping in 2013--as noted above he hasn't played in over 100 games in a season in his career, but so far he's been healthy. Carroll could start once a week at short and once a week at second to rest the two younger players. If Dozier continues to spiral, especially on defense, start Carroll or Florimon there and if Casilla can't get it going by the end of this month, make the decision that he's not part of the future (DFA him whatever). Maybe Alexi can make himself tradeable, maybe he can get a contract for next year or maybe he gets nontendered in the winter.

If it was up to me I'd rather they trade Caroll and keep Casilla around as the UTIL INF/Back up guy off the bench for a couple reasons. Casilla would make 1.75 million (2 mil if you count the club option to decline in 2014) less than Caroll next year (assuming he gets 2 mil in arb) and could provide better speed off the bench if needed.

With all that said, the Twins would still need to find an everyday 2B for 2013 if that's the case, Plouffe maybe is an option if Valencia comes back somewhat effective? Or else you have to roll with Alexi as the every day 2B heading into the season which is far from ideal.

What about Beresford, currently playing 50% SS & 2b at New Brittain, he shows excellent fielding skills both left and right, only 4 errors in 71 games and his batting is more about contact with the lowest by far Ks by regulars players, power is down but seems to hit the ball a lot.

did something happen in the Texas series that everyone thinks Dozier is spiraling? He was hitting quite well in Detroit. This is his rookie year, he's not a super prospect by any means.... meaning he's going to take some lumps. This is when you let the kid play and see what he can do without the pressure of knowing that if he makes a mistake he will be on the plane back to Rochester.

The question is not Casilla vs. Dozier. It should be Casilla vs. Carrol at 2nd. Honestly, I don't get the big deal. Like others said, the guy has had a ridiculous number of chances including getting the position handed to him in the offseason only for him to blow it. Next year, he's going to cost what Carrol does as well, which essentially makes him overpriced. He's going to be let go and will sign a 1/1M prove it contract with some other team to be a backup or have a chance to compete for a starting job. The only chance of that not happening is if we can convince a team like Detroit to part with a C+ prospect, as he would be a fairly modest upgrade to their situation, and I doubt playing him every day will effect that... I'd add that playing him every day could also destroy what little value he has.

Originally Posted by diehardtwinsfan

did something happen in the Texas series that everyone thinks Dozier is spiraling? He was hitting quite well in Detroit. This is his rookie year, he's not a super prospect by any means.... meaning he's going to take some lumps. This is when you let the kid play and see what he can do without the pressure of knowing that if he makes a mistake he will be on the plane back to Rochester.

The question is not Casilla vs. Dozier. It should be Casilla vs. Carrol at 2nd. Honestly, I don't get the big deal. Like others said, the guy has had a ridiculous number of chances including getting the position handed to him in the offseason only for him to blow it. Next year, he's going to cost what Carrol does as well, which essentially makes him overpriced. He's going to be let go and will sign a 1/1M prove it contract with some other team to be a backup or have a chance to compete for a starting job. The only chance of that not happening is if we can convince a team like Detroit to part with a C+ prospect, as he would be a fairly modest upgrade to their situation, and I doubt playing him every day will effect that... I'd add that playing him every day could also destroy what little value he has.

You said almost exactly what I've been saying. Dozier picked it up in Detroit. He stumbled a bit later but hey, he's a rookie. It happens. Cuddyer and Kubel took their lumps before emerging as quality players and they were better prospects than Dozier in their MiLB stints.

I feel like Casilla and Carroll are pretty much interchangeable. I like Casilla because he's younger and will be slightly cheaper than Carroll. On the other hand, having an old MI vet around might help Dozier. Either way, I'm not going to get worked up about it.

There are several points that I would like to make:

1) Casilla has NO trade value right now. Teams at this point are looking for that player(s) that are going to send them to the top of their division. Mentioned trade partners so far:
Twins: Casilla .236, .308, .577
Nats: Espinosa .232, .374, .683.....only 25yr old and hit 21 home runs last year.
Tigers: Santiago .230, .316, .620
Orioles: Andino .231, .318, .611
Giants: Theriot .275, .322, .632
Who here actually thinks any team looks at that line and thinks "I need to add that to my team! We're going to the playoffs!". If you want to argue teams in the offseason might trade for Casilla if he plays the second half and demonstrates an improvement I wouldn't disagree but right now he has no trade value.

2) Casilla vs. Florimon vs. Dozier vs. Carroll re:2013
To me Casilla is the odd man out here. Florimon and Dozier are potential pieces of the future and the only way to truly know is to give them a shot. Casilla has repeatedly shown that he is not the long term solution not because he doesn't have flashes of mediocrity but because he can't stay on the field and has shown a propensity to crater offensively. Carroll hit .290, .347, .706 last year which is just slightly above his career numbers. To me it is worth keeping him around to see if he can return to his career norms. Maybe his age has caught up to him and he is just downhill but maybe he is just having a poor year at the plate. Carroll is also owed $3.75M next year where as Alexi is owed $0. That is probably the biggest reason to keep Carroll.

3) "Carroll is a career backup." Carroll has played in more games than Alexi Casilla in every season except 1. So if Carroll is a "career backup" what does that make Alexi?

Originally Posted by Oxtung

There are several points that I would like to make:

1) Casilla has NO trade value right now. Teams at this point are looking for that player(s) that are going to send them to the top of their division. Mentioned trade partners so far:
Twins: Casilla .236, .308, .577
Nats: Espinosa .232, .374, .683.....only 25yr old and hit 21 home runs last year.
Tigers: Santiago .230, .316, .620
Orioles: Andino .231, .318, .611
Giants: Theriot .275, .322, .632
Who here actually thinks any team looks at that line and thinks "I need to add that to my team! We're going to the playoffs!". If you want to argue teams in the offseason might trade for Casilla if he plays the second half and demonstrates an improvement I wouldn't disagree but right now he has no trade value.

2) Casilla vs. Florimon vs. Dozier vs. Carroll re:2013
To me Casilla is the odd man out here. Florimon and Dozier are potential pieces of the future and the only way to truly know is to give them a shot. Casilla has repeatedly shown that he is not the long term solution not because he doesn't have flashes of mediocrity but because he can't stay on the field and has shown a propensity to crater offensively. Carroll hit .290, .347, .706 last year which is just slightly above his career numbers. To me it is worth keeping him around to see if he can return to his career norms. Maybe his age has caught up to him and he is just downhill but maybe he is just having a poor year at the plate. Carroll is also owed $3.75M next year where as Alexi is owed $0. That is probably the biggest reason to keep Carroll.

3) "Carroll is a career backup." Carroll has played in more games than Alexi Casilla in every season except 1. So if Carroll is a "career backup" what does that make Alexi?

It makes Casilla injury prone and/or disappointing. However, the gulf between a soon-to-be 28 year old and a 38 year old is pretty wide. Can Carroll honestly be expected to get better? Carroll may have played in more games, but he has never, ever been a regular at one position for even half a season. Has anyone had a career arc where they become regulars at 38 and have their best years then? Casilla could be a late bloomer--at almost 28, there is a small chance that he will improve to the point where he is pretty good. Florimon, at best, looks like a Casilla, but at shortstop. He's 2.5 year younger, but has eight big league at-bats and only this year cracked AAA.

Yangervis Solarte with a .760 OPS in AAA this year, mostly at 2B, but with some time at 3B and in LF. Six homers. 30 walks / 26 strikeouts. 21 doubles. He would have altered this conversation significantly, I think. Not sure why he didn't sign as a six-year FA with the Twins org. Either the Twins didn't want him, or because the Twins FOOLISHLY didn't promote him to AAA late last year when he clearly deserved it instead of the plethora of jokers on that polluted AAA roster last year, he simply wanted to get the hell away.

Whatever is going to be the plan next year has to be started this year. So Florimon should definitely get some time (at short) and Dozier can play 2B. If one really thinks that saving $4.5 million or whatever is going to get the Twins to spend that money on pitching, then clearly Florimon and Dozier in, while Casilla and Carroll out (meaning . . . NISHIOKA . . .). I don't think Carroll is going to have any real suitors, though, and he does have very good value as a backup for those three infield positions.

If Florimon doesn't work out this year, oh well. Carroll and Nishioka are options still. Beresford is definitely someone who needs to continue AA numbers in AAA before I would think about including him in this mix.

One person no one is mentioning in this thread is Michael... He's quietly starting to put together a decent season in Fort Myers.

Given his age and that his early season play could be due to shaking the rust off and adjusting to wooden bats, it wouldn't be a shock to see him get a call to New Britain this season (though I think he'll start next season there if things continue to progress). Either way, I think he'll start progressing through the ranks quickly if he stays healthy.

By the middle of next year, we could be talking about him getting the call to the Twins.

Dozier is playing because he has potential. Casilla has spent most of his. That said, Casilla is still about one year younger than Carroll was when he got to the majors for the first time.

I don't think Dozier is the long term solution at short but I don't really see another around the bend. I'm willing to let him try it the rest of this year and probably next. I would not be saying that if the Twins were truly contenders though.

Sincerely, I hope Casilla is in this type of discussion somewhere in ten years. I think Casilla can play the Carroll roll for the Twins next year at 1/2 or 2/3 the price. I expect Carroll to be here and Casilla to be elsewhere though.

I'm glad no one mentioned Hardy.

Originally Posted by stringer bell

1) However, the gulf between a soon-to-be 28 year old and a 38 year old is pretty wide.
2)Can Carroll honestly be expected to get better?
3) Carroll may have played in more games, but he has never, ever been a regular at one position for even half a season. Has anyone had a career arc where they become regulars at 38 and have their best years then?
4) Casilla could be a late bloomer--at almost 28, there is a small chance that he will improve to the point where he is pretty good. Florimon, at best, looks like a Casilla, but at shortstop. He's 2.5 year younger, but has eight big league at-bats and only this year cracked AAA.

1) At this point statistically it isn't. As a matter of fact the 38yo is outplaying the 28yo.

2) Carroll's career averages and his recent past both say this year is well below his norms offensively. Like I said just last year he hit .290/.347/.706 which was only slightly above his career average. So unless you're claiming his age has finally caught up with him, which is a possibility, yes he has a good chance to bounce back and have a good year next year.

3) This is just flat out wrong. In 2006 he started 102 games at 2B, 212 games with the Dodgers in '10-'11 and 76 games with the Twins so far. Whether or not he plays his best ball at this point in his career doesn't really matter. What matters is will he play better than Casilla and/or are his intangibles worth more to the club?

4) You're absolutely right. The 28 year old that has been below average in his career 1600 PA and hasn't been able to play even 100 games in a season has a chance to be pretty good but the 25yo with the supposedly great defense that has never been given a opportunity has no chance and shouldn't be given a shot. [/sarc]

Originally Posted by Oxtung

1) At this point statistically it isn't. As a matter of fact the 38yo is outplaying the 28yo.

2) Carroll's career averages and his recent past both say this year is well below his norms offensively. Like I said just last year he hit .290/.347/.706 which was only slightly above his career average. So unless you're claiming his age has finally caught up with him, which is a possibility, yes he has a good chance to bounce back and have a good year next year.

3) This is just flat out wrong. In 2006 he started 102 games at 2B, 212 games with the Dodgers in '10-'11 and 76 games with the Twins so far. Whether or not he plays his best ball at this point in his career doesn't really matter. What matters is will he play better than Casilla and/or are his intangibles worth more to the club?

4) You're absolutely right. The 28 year old that has been below average in his career 1600 PA and hasn't been able to play even 100 games in a season has a chance to be pretty good but the 25yo with the supposedly great defense that has never been given a opportunity has no chance and shouldn't be given a shot. [/sarc]

It is a value judgement that Carroll is outplaying Casilla. The difference between them is OPS is so small that an official scorer's ruling or a lucky bounce could give Casilla a higher OPS. I would say that Casilla has played the best defense of the three middle infielders and his prowess on the bases is worth a bit more. Carroll's hitting numbers are pedestrian and powerless and his best years have been augmented by batting eighth in NL lineups and getting walked more than he otherwise would. The quote from me was that Carroll had never been a major league regular at one position and I believe that is the case. According to baseball-reference.com the most games he ever started at one position in one season is 102 (less than 2/3) and that was when he was 32. I like Florimon. I hope he learns to hit at the higher levels and can force himself into the argument for playing time in the middle infield. Just like Casilla, he hasn't had to climb past Ripken and Cano to get to the majors, but unlike Casilla, he has only had a cup of coffee in the big leagues at age 25.

As for Carroll--he brings great versatility and durability to the table--despite minimal talent, he has carved out an admirable major league career. He has been a very good utility infielder because of those traits. I just don't think he should routinely be starting especially for a noncontender at 38 years of age.

Originally Posted by stringer bell

Carroll's hitting numbers are pedestrian and powerless and his best years have been augmented by batting eighth in NL lineups and getting walked more than he otherwise would.

I wondered and worried about this, but his AL walk rates and NL walk rates are about the same. Carry on.