Action Plan for the Second Half of 2012--Part 1

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Originally Posted by USAFChief

I've never understood why people accept that defensive metrics in small doses are "basically useless," but if you add up enough useless info, it then becomes useful and accurate.

For hitting data, people understand that small sample sizes are often unsustainable. But nobody says "it's a small sample size, Plouffe didn't really hit seven HRs in a week.". They say "he did hit those HRs, but I doubt he'll keep ii up."

But with defensive metrics, that's exactly what people say. Even the "inventor" of UZR says exactly that: "I know UZR says Delmon Young was a plus defender for the first half, but he really wasn't. What we need to do is take a whole bunch of this unreliable data, so it becomes reliable."

If the math is wrong in small sizes, adding up a bunch of wrong samples doesn't somehow make it right.

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After 2 ABs, guys are often hitting 1.000. Obviously, we should extrapolate that out for an entire season, no?

Fielding stats are even more so. Every guy will get to 95% of the same balls hit to them. That means the difference lays in those final 5% of hit balls.

And it takes time to gather enough of that "5%" to say anything meaningful about the player. You remove outliers (say, a guy tripping, getting an unusually bad jump, or getting lucky by being shifted badly on an oddly hit ball) by waiting until you have more data. Outliers have far less impact if an odd play counts for .1% instead of 1% of the gathered data. In the meantime, those same outliers can drastically skew data one way or the other in SSS.

It's Statistics 101 stuff.

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Originally Posted by mike wants wins

Actually, usachief, that is exactly how the law of large numbers works. It is hard to explain on a messageboard, but statistical analysis is very mature and you'll have to trust it, or take some stats lessons online.....

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Actually, no.

That isn't how the law of large numbers works. It works like it does with Plouffe's seven HRs. "those numbers are accurate, they actually did happen, but wait, they'll normalize."

But it doesn't say "these numbers aren't accurate, they didn't really happen, but if we take enough of these numbers that didn't happen and add them up, they DID happen."

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Originally Posted by diehardtwinsfan

I have a tough time believing that Plouffe made it all the way through the minor league system killing spectators on the 1B line. I suspect his problems had a lot to do with nerves and adjustments on both sides of the game. I have no problems letting him play out the year at 3rd, but if the bat is legit, it would be wise to move him back to the middle knowing that he's figured out the offensive side of the game.... Not to mention that huge positional advantage that moving Trevor back to the MI brings. I agree that it's dependent on Valencia figuring enough out to come back and play league average 3B, but it's well worth it if he can.

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It's not only his arm. As he matures, it's been widely speculated that Trevor wouldn't be a middle infielder. His range and hands weren't exactly praise-worthy, either. My understanding is that on his best of days, he's not as rangy as Dozier (who also has doubts about sticking at short), nor does he have as good of hands. His only plus attribute is his arm, which is erratic.

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Originally Posted by rocketpig

It's not only his arm. As he matures, it's been widely speculated that Trevor wouldn't be a middle infielder. His range and hands weren't exactly praise-worthy, either. My understanding is that on his best of days, he's not as rangy as Dozier (who also has doubts about sticking at short), nor does he have as good of hands. His only plus attribute is his arm, which is erratic.

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I would also add that a common critique of Plouffe is his inconsistency in his foot work at SS. When you play short, you make throws from all over the diamond, constantly from different angles. If your foot work is not sound, your entire body is out of whack on your throws. Moving him to third greatly increases his ability to make throws from a consistent position on the field and allows him to get his feet set almost always before he throws. He hasn't been perfect at 3B either... however it is very obvious just to the naked eye that the position change is working to his advantage.

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Originally Posted by Mauerzy4Prez

I would also add that a common critique of Plouffe is his inconsistency in his foot work at SS. When you play short, you make throws from all over the diamond, constantly from different angles. If your foot work is not sound, your entire body is out of whack on your throws. Moving him to third greatly increases his ability to make throws from a consistent position on the field and allows him to get his feet set almost always before he throws. He hasn't been perfect at 3B either... however it is very obvious just to the naked eye that the position change is working to his advantage.

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Yes, you don't need to be a stat wizard to see that Plouffe fits third better than short or second. I have been pleasantly surprised by his ability to charge and throw and he is steady enough going left and right. Third base isn't about range--it is reactions and footwork and while Plouffe isn't going to win a gold glove, I think he's been as good a defender as Valencia.

On the topic of Casilla in 2013, it should be noted that there the middle infielder free agent market is going to be pretty terrible. You aren't going to get anything better than Casilla for $1-$2 million. That's not say that I really want him back, just that he might be harder to replace than some think. He's young and a better defender than a lot of those guys.

I don't read the comments from the UZR creator the same way you do. I read that the calculation is not trustworty, not that it didn't happen. but maybe we are both reading it the way we want to....either way, i always take the defensive metrics as directional, not a measurement of precision. So, someone rated 9 vs someone rated 4, that has meaning to me. Someone rated 7 vs 6.5, well, not so much.

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Originally Posted by USAFChief

This is satire, right? Countless runs? Seeing-eye, hard hit grounders?

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Lots of mlb.com blackouts in Tuscon, gameday doesn't cut it.

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Originally Posted by mike wants wins

I don't read the comments from the UZR creator the same way you do. I read that the calculation is not trustworty, not that it didn't happen. but maybe we are both reading it the way we want to....either way, i always take the defensive metrics as directional, not a measurement of precision. So, someone rated 9 vs someone rated 4, that has meaning to me. Someone rated 7 vs 6.5, well, not so much.

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Pretty much this. Defensive metrics are far from perfect; everyone who understands that freely admits it. But because something isn't perfect doesn't mean it's completely invalid, either. If two players are close, outside reference is needed. But if the players are miles apart statistically, you know there is something to that player that is good or bad.

Again, defensive metrics are generally evaluative tools, not predictive tools. They take too long to accumulate data to be predictive in nature. By the time you have a guy's stats nailed down, he's two years older.

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Originally Posted by diehardtwinsfan

Casillas saving grace is that he'd be an upgrade for many contending teams (not much of one, but that tells you how bad the MI is right now)... Do agree that defensively he's much improved. That said, I dont' think he's in the 2013 plans at all, which is why he's doing what he's doing now.

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Which is why he needs to play now.

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Originally Posted by Craig in MN

On the topic of Casilla in 2013, it should be noted that there the middle infielder free agent market is going to be pretty terrible. You aren't going to get anything better than Casilla for $1-$2 million. That's not say that I really want him back, just that he might be harder to replace than some think. He's young and a better defender than a lot of those guys.

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Spot on. Money must be directed toward pitching first and pitching last...and everywhere inbetween.

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Originally Posted by rocketpig

It's not only his arm. As he matures, it's been widely speculated that Trevor wouldn't be a middle infielder. His range and hands weren't exactly praise-worthy, either. My understanding is that on his best of days, he's not as rangy as Dozier (who also has doubts about sticking at short), nor does he have as good of hands. His only plus attribute is his arm, which is erratic.

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Then why on earth did he spend so much time there? I'm not saying he's going to be a plus defender, but up until his chance in MLB, all the reports said average. But don't tell me that he's not a huge asset in the middle if he can put up circa 2000-2005 Jeff Kent like numbers up the middle, as that what he's done for the last month and a half.

My point is that if (and that's a big if) Valencia were able to recapture some form and be a league avg 3B, then moving Plouffe back into the middle makes a ton of sense. If not, you can delay that until Sano's ready, at which point Plouffe is going to be pretty expensive unless the team locks him down.

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Originally Posted by diehardtwinsfan

Then why on earth did he spend so much time there? I'm not saying he's going to be a plus defender, but up until his chance in MLB, all the reports said average. But don't tell me that he's not a huge asset in the middle if he can put up circa 2000-2005 Jeff Kent like numbers up the middle, as that what he's done for the last month and a half.

My point is that if (and that's a big if) Valencia were able to recapture some form and be a league avg 3B, then moving Plouffe back into the middle makes a ton of sense. If not, you can delay that until Sano's ready, at which point Plouffe is going to be pretty expensive unless the team locks him down.

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Which might be an okay idea if Valencia wasn't putting up Punto-esque numbers in Rochester. Right now, Plouffe is hitting well and playing an adequate third. Why mess with that when no one else in the system looks like they can fill in for him?

Really, it was only a matter of time before we heard the "Plouffe to second!" arguments come back. He's had a heck of a run here, but he's got a lot to prove to stay a part of this team's future. Two years ago we were saying the similar things about Valencia so people shouldn't get too far ahead of themselves. He's comfortable at third and hitting, let's not mess with that success.

Putting him at a position he's never played or one that he was never that great of a fit for in the first place would be incredibly stupid.

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Originally Posted by rocketpig

Which might be an okay idea if Valencia wasn't putting up Punto-esque numbers in Rochester. Right now, Plouffe is hitting well and playing an adequate third. Why mess with that when no one else in the system looks like they can fill in for him?

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I think this means we agree.... I wouldn't force it unless Valencia does, but I'm quite willing to do it if Danny steps it up.

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Originally Posted by diehardtwinsfan

I think this means we agree.... I wouldn't force it unless Valencia does, but I'm quite willing to do it if Danny steps it up.

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Right now, I don't think it's a good idea no matter how Valencia is playing... but if the team has Trevor take spring training reps at second next season, I wouldn't complain.

Plouffe is going to have a hard enough time adjusting to major league pitching and playing a position he hasn't played much before now (third base). Now that he's succeeding, it's not the time to pull the rug out from under him again.

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Originally Posted by Cody Christie

Carroll is already under contract for next season while Casilla would have to go through the arbitration process for the third time. The Twins could just decide to pass on Casilla and fill the utility role with someone from the minors.

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Casilla will be non-tendered

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Originally Posted by Fire Dan Gladden

Casilla will be non-tendered

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Which again, going back to the OP, is why he needs to play now, to establish possible value now.

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Originally Posted by Winston Smith

Bring up Valencia, move Plouffe to 2nd and let them play the rest of the year. Plouffe plays first when a lefty is pitching, C & C are utility guys. Carroll is old, Casilla has shown enough times he isn't an everyday player.

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I find the dislike towards Casilla fascinating. Fact: Casilla and Valencia are the same age (give or take a month). Fact: Casilla has been playing better in a middle infield position (where the expectations about hitting are not the same as a corner position) that Valencia has at third base. Casilla's hitting as a MIF is better than Valencia's as a third baseman. Fact: Casilla is either the best or the second best (Revere) on the bases in this team. He has a lot of value and just entering his prime. He also needs consistent playing time... On the other hand, of course there has been a communication problem with him and the manager and the coaches like with most other Latin American players... And this is not Casilla's fault

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Originally Posted by diehardtwinsfan

Casillas saving grace is that he'd be an upgrade for many contending teams (not much of one, but that tells you how bad the MI is right now)... Do agree that defensively he's much improved. That said, I dont' think he's in the 2013 plans at all, which is why he's doing what he's doing now.

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Exactly. I posted awhile ago about dumping grounds for Casilla and Valencia. Sticking to the former here, I believe some relevant teams would be Baltimore, Washington, and San Francisco.