Action Plan for the Second Half of 2012--Part 1

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Originally Posted by Badsmerf

I certainly hope Carrol isn't in the 2013 plans over Casilla. Carrol is a solid fielder and thats it, he does nothing else well. Casilla at least has plus speed to go along with a better bat and is cheaper. Carrol makes no sense.

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Is Casilla worth around the $2MM that he would probably get through arbitration next year though. That is the question.

I'm not saying Carroll is going to be worth the money he will be making either.

Florimon is an interesting person to throw in the mix, but the question is where do you put him? He has been playing a SS exclusively this season (execpt for one appearance as a pitcher). Would you move Dozier to 2B and have Florimon play SS, or would you put him at a position that he has only played 2 times in his professional career?

I read the post, but you guys are asking us to completely ignore his inept hitting. Here is his WAR, year by year.....2007, negative .9. 2008, poisitve 1.4, 2009, negative 1.2, 2010, positive 1.1, 2011, positive 1.4, 2012, positive .5. So, he's about a 1 WAR player the last three years. However, if you look at the components, nearly all the positives are in defense and baserunning. So, if you don't believe in UZR, you don't really believe he's even a 1 win player. He's been awful as a hitter, historically bad even. He's had plenty of time and at bats to show what he can do as a fulltime player. Yes, he's younger than Carroll, but let's think about this. If you have to pay him more than $2MM per year, would you rather have him, or some AAA guy either currently in the system, or acquired at some point? He's really not worth more than a some minimum wage guy, and every penny you don't spend on a bad veteran, is money you can invest in better veterans. It really doesn't matter much to me what they do with Carroll/Casilla this year, as long as they don't invest money in Casilla next year, and put that savings toward pitching or a legit 2B/SS.

Last night on bumper to bumper Ron Coomer made his weekly appearance. In discussion about the second half plans he made a comment about the idea to try Mastrionni at 2nd base... When checking his stats I can see that he has played 68 games at 2nd in the minors. FPCT is .965, 21 DP's and 10 errors.

This idea is pretty intriguing to me. His speed and ability to create havoc on the bases is probably best on the team. The guy so far has proven he can handle major league pitching. I think this would not be a bad idea to clear the way for some of the OF prospects we have coming up and also filling a hole at 2nd base.

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Originally Posted by mike wants wins

I read the post, but you guys are asking us to completely ignore his inept hitting. Here is his WAR, year by year.....2007, negative .9. 2008, poisitve 1.4, 2009, negative 1.2, 2010, positive 1.1, 2011, positive 1.4, 2012, positive .5. So, he's about a 1 WAR player the last three years. However, if you look at the components, nearly all the positives are in defense and baserunning. So, if you don't believe in UZR, you don't really believe he's even a 1 win player. He's been awful as a hitter, historically bad even. He's had plenty of time and at bats to show what he can do as a fulltime player. Yes, he's younger than Carroll, but let's think about this. If you have to pay him more than $2MM per year, would you rather have him, or some AAA guy either currently in the system, or acquired at some point? He's really not worth more than a some minimum wage guy, and every penny you don't spend on a bad veteran, is money you can invest in better veterans. It really doesn't matter much to me what they do with Carroll/Casilla this year, as long as they don't invest money in Casilla next year, and put that savings toward pitching or a legit 2B/SS.

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On the other hand, more savings could be found by keeping Casilla and offloading Carroll (if that's even possible given his contract).

At the end of the day, I'm not sure it matters much.

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Originally Posted by mike wants wins

I read the post, but you guys are asking us to completely ignore his inept hitting. Here is his WAR, year by year.....2007, negative .9. 2008, poisitve 1.4, 2009, negative 1.2, 2010, positive 1.1, 2011, positive 1.4, 2012, positive .5. So, he's about a 1 WAR player the last three years. However, if you look at the components, nearly all the positives are in defense and baserunning. So, if you don't believe in UZR, you don't really believe he's even a 1 win player. He's been awful as a hitter, historically bad even. He's had plenty of time and at bats to show what he can do as a fulltime player. Yes, he's younger than Carroll, but let's think about this. If you have to pay him more than $2MM per year, would you rather have him, or some AAA guy either currently in the system, or acquired at some point? He's really not worth more than a some minimum wage guy, and every penny you don't spend on a bad veteran, is money you can invest in better veterans. It really doesn't matter much to me what they do with Carroll/Casilla this year, as long as they don't invest money in Casilla next year, and put that savings toward pitching or a legit 2B/SS.

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I don't believe in the metrics, but I do believe Casilla has been very good defensively for the past year. I do value defense in the middle infield and that is why I have questions about Dozier, not from his disappointing swoon at the plate (I think he'll recover). Casilla has been enigmatic, and I'm sure I wouldn't commit long term to him, but the Twins do need to know whether they will non-tender him or maybe if they want to DFA him this summer. I think there is a good player there who can provide speed and defense from the middle infield. If the top 7-8 hitters are hitting, his offense and baserunning would be a bonus as long as the defense was better than good.

Not a bad idea. Mastro hits like a middle infielder and despite his speed, I'm not impressed with his defense in the outfield. If he could handle the position defensively, give him a shot.

I believe that in 2013, we will see a lot of Pedro Florimon at SS. He likely won't post a .600 OPS but I've been told his glove is incredible. I'd expect to see Dozier at 2B. I'd like to see Jamey Carroll kept around as insurance and as a mentor for those two. He's a perfect role model for those guys.

According to fangraphs, Carroll has been much better than Casilla defensively this year, for what it is worth. One of them should go, to save money. The one that stays should be a backup. And, some younger guy should be the starter (with Dozer at SS or 2B).

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Originally Posted by mike wants wins

According to fangraphs, Carroll has been much better than Casilla defensively this year, for what it is worth. One of them should go, to save money. The one that stays should be a backup. And, some younger guy should be the starter (with Dozer at SS or 2B).

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Don't put too much stock in the defensive metrics of part-time players using partial season statistics. WAR is basically useless until an entire season has been played and it's a little sketchy until you get two years worth of data. The other defensive metrics aren't much different.

But overall, I agree with your point. One should go. I'd prefer it be Carroll because he's making too much money but I'm not going to get too riled up about it one way or the other. If the Twins think Carroll is a good mentor character for the young infielders, so be it.

Bring up Valencia, move Plouffe to 2nd and let them play the rest of the year. Plouffe plays first when a lefty is pitching, C & C are utility guys. Carroll is old, Casilla has shown enough times he isn't an everyday player. Find out what these other guys can do for an extended time. Either they are the future or they aren't. Stop screwing around worried about a win or two the rest of the way. It's time to established what the core of this team will be going into next year, imo.

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Originally Posted by Winston Smith

Bring up Valencia, move Plouffe to 2nd and let them play the rest of the year. Plouffe plays first when a lefty is pitching, C & C are utility guys. Carroll is old, Casilla has shown enough times he isn't an everyday player. Find out what these other guys can do for an extended time. Either they are the future or they aren't. Stop screwing around worried about a win or two the rest of the way. It's time to established what the core of this team will be going into next year, imo.

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Nothing I've seen has given me any indication that Trevor Plouffe can handle a MLB middle infield position. He's doing just fine at third. Let him stay there.

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Originally Posted by jokin

Did you read Stringerbell's entire post? Have you been watching the games this year? Casilla is easily having his finest year defensively. He has saved countless runs and ended many an inning, snaring line-shots, and seeing-eye, hard-hit grounders, to his left and right, frequently laying out full-horizontal and adroitly turning DPs as both initiator and middle-man- which has gotten the Twins pitchers out of many threatening situations and the club far and away leads the majors in that department. FWIW, given the quantifiable metrics that are available, Casilla ranks 7th among all active 2B for 2010-12 and 2011-12 and 2nd for 2012 alone in UZR/150. If you evaluate him solely as a hitter, I see where you're coming from, but even there, if he gets an extended run or two before the season ends, he historically has had a couple of short 10-25 day runs per year where he hits for high average and he does have 2 seasons where he hit above positional average. I fully agree with the OP, establishing his value for trade purposes and future arb worth as a utility player should be a priority in the 2nd half. If Caroll rightly returns to the career role he is accustomed as utility infielder (he currently is on pace to play 153 games, the most in his career) and can play that to age 40 (through 2014), than Casilla should play more now, with Florimon getting his shot in September. Is there anyone else knocking at the door to take that spot in 2013? Eddie Rosario is at least two years away, and there's no firm evidence in yet that he will master 2B. The Twins have to prioritize their spending on pitching, the MI has demonstrably been shored up from last year's disaster of a year with a relatively cheap fix. Hopefully Dozier continues to improve and/or Florimon definitively takes the job away from Casilla.

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This is satire, right? Countless runs? Seeing-eye, hard hit grounders?

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Originally Posted by Winston Smith

Bring up Valencia, move Plouffe to 2nd and let them play the rest of the year. Plouffe plays first when a lefty is pitching, C & C are utility guys. Carroll is old, Casilla has shown enough times he isn't an everyday player. Find out what these other guys can do for an extended time. Either they are the future or they aren't. Stop screwing around worried about a win or two the rest of the way. It's time to established what the core of this team will be going into next year, imo.

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Leave Plouffe at third... he has earned that spot and nobody can make a case right now to be a better fit. What has Valencia done to deserve the starting job back? Guy is hitting .244 with an OBP of .281 in 213 AB's in AAA... not to mention he his k/bb is 34/11

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Originally Posted by Badsmerf

I certainly hope Carrol isn't in the 2013 plans over Casilla. Carrol is a solid fielder and thats it, he does nothing else well. Casilla at least has plus speed to go along with a better bat and is cheaper. Carrol makes no sense.

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Casilla is also arb eligible for the 2nd time now... He's not cheap anymore, and this team cannot get him cheaply. He isn't going to be around much longer.

No way you move Plouffe at this point. He's succesful offensively and defensively right now. Why mess with that?

and, I agree, defensive stats for this year are not worth much.....not in precision. but, they are probably directionally useful.....

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Originally Posted by rocketpig

Don't put too much stock in the defensive metrics of part-time players using partial season statistics. WAR is basically useless until an entire season has been played and it's a little sketchy until you get two years worth of data. The other defensive metrics aren't much different.

But overall, I agree with your point. One should go. I'd prefer it be Carroll because he's making too much money but I'm not going to get too riled up about it one way or the other. If the Twins think Carroll is a good mentor character for the young infielders, so be it.

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I've never understood why people accept that defensive metrics in small doses are "basically useless," but if you add up enough useless info, it then becomes useful and accurate.

For hitting data, people understand that small sample sizes are often unsustainable. But nobody says "it's a small sample size, Plouffe didn't really hit seven HRs in a week.". They say "he did hit those HRs, but I doubt he'll keep ii up."

But with defensive metrics, that's exactly what people say. Even the "inventor" of UZR says exactly that: "I know UZR says Delmon Young was a plus defender for the first half, but he really wasn't. What we need to do is take a whole bunch of this unreliable data, so it becomes reliable."

If the math is wrong in small sizes, adding up a bunch of wrong samples doesn't somehow make it right.

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Originally Posted by rocketpig

Nothing I've seen has given me any indication that Trevor Plouffe can handle a MLB middle infield position. He's doing just fine at third. Let him stay there.

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I have a tough time believing that Plouffe made it all the way through the minor league system killing spectators on the 1B line. I suspect his problems had a lot to do with nerves and adjustments on both sides of the game. I have no problems letting him play out the year at 3rd, but if the bat is legit, it would be wise to move him back to the middle knowing that he's figured out the offensive side of the game.... Not to mention that huge positional advantage that moving Trevor back to the MI brings. I agree that it's dependent on Valencia figuring enough out to come back and play league average 3B, but it's well worth it if he can.

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Originally Posted by stringer bell

Not a bad idea. Mastro hits like a middle infielder and despite his speed, I'm not impressed with his defense in the outfield. If he could handle the position defensively, give him a shot.

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Mastro was drafted as a 2B coming out of college and after a season in the low-A league the Blue Jays moved him off of there and into the outfield. When then Twins obtained him there seemed to be a philosophy to let him try 2B again, as perhaps his best chance to get to the majors, but it was less than a full success, and up with the big club he's wound up playing only in the OF. It's not the craziest idea to try it in the second half of a lost season, but the track record is that his most recent AAA coaches didn't consider him ready for prime time there, and his previous team had apparently decided he could not succeed there.

Actually, usachief, that is exactly how the law of large numbers works. It is hard to explain on a messageboard, but statistical analysis is very mature and you'll have to trust it, or take some stats lessons online.....

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Originally Posted by stringer bell

Not a bad idea. Mastro hits like a middle infielder and despite his speed, I'm not impressed with his defense in the outfield. If he could handle the position defensively, give him a shot.

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It's worth a try. He's not going to get a lot of time in the outfield, is he?