Thread: Article: The Twins 2013 Payroll Crunch

Originally Posted by Top Gun

Morneau will hit .300 and 40 hrs next seson and everyone will be happy.

hope so!

Originally Posted by diehardtwinsfan

Nope, new CBA. The Marlins would have to offer him arb of 1/12.5 and then they'd get a pick right in front of the Twins, but the Twins would keep their pick.

Signing teams surrender their first round pick, unless they draft in the top 10, then they surrender their second.

Originally Posted by jorgenswest

I would respect the Rays too much to trade for Shields. We don't want them to pull a Kazmir on us.

Hopefully they will take a close look at the data. His fastball has maintained velocity, but he throws it less often this year (27% compared to 42% career). The difference in speed between his cutter and fastball is closer than they have been in any other time during his career. His FIP still looks good. His BABIP may be high but it was in 2010 also. Is this the guy we want the Twins to invest in? Why not take the same money and offer it to a free agent? We lose a pick, but it will be less value than what we will have to give up to get Shields.

Just looking through his stats, something is up... He's kind of a Dr. Jeckyl/Mr. Hyde with batters faced and hits allowed as he's had some very good seasons where he's lead the league in hits allowed. His stats this year are not horrible, but not as good as in the past, though he's coming off of a season where he threw 250 innings (a career high by a lot). He's also expensive as someone else pointed out. The Rays may be able to take advantage of a weak pitching market to get someone to overpay, but I'm not sure he's going to reel in a top propsect, much in the same way that Liriano will not either.

The problem for the Twins is that they have no starting pitching and little in the way of pitching prospects. So at what point will they be able to field a competitive rotation, and how will it happen? This could easily be a 5+ year issue. Trades can help, but free agency would almost certainly have to be part of any solution.

Originally Posted by diehardtwinsfan

Just looking through his stats, something is up... He's kind of a Dr. Jeckyl/Mr. Hyde with batters faced and hits allowed as he's had some very good seasons where he's lead the league in hits allowed. His stats this year are not horrible, but not as good as in the past, though he's coming off of a season where he threw 250 innings (a career high by a lot). He's also expensive as someone else pointed out. The Rays may be able to take advantage of a weak pitching market to get someone to overpay, but I'm not sure he's going to reel in a top propsect, much in the same way that Liriano will not either.

Yeah, James Shields has a lot of potential but is an up-and-down pitcher. Much like a certain lefty we love to bash...

ask youself: where this team would be with another $18.5M worth of starting pitching?

they would still be terrible with Buehrle or CJ Wilson and they would be stuck with that pitcher in the latter years of the contract (like Lowe or Burnett). History is not very kind to mid level, 30 something pitchers that sign big contracts. I know the board is clamoring for some big spending on on a couple of starters this winter but I think it's a mistake. Either go big for a stud or pick a guy with a shorter commitment even if he's unimpressive. The problem is that there aren't a lot of starters out there and there will be a lot of competition for them.

Thanks for the insight guys on what is and is not included in the USAToday numbers. Also, great discussion.

Since moving to Target Field, the Twins' average combined spending on the MLB payroll and the Draft has been about $110M. It was about $119M last year, about $112M this year. As dreadful as the first half was, they're on pace to get the 6th or 7th overall pick next year (slotted at about half what they gave Buxton), and it doesn't look as though they'll have any supplemental picks. They're on their way to spending no more than half what they spent on the 2012 draft next year. So if they maintain a Major League payroll of about $100M, they will have reduced total player expenditures by $6-7M.

Do they need to cut any more than that? I doubt it - they're still on pace to draw over 2.8 million in attendance. The money will be there to sign two good starters. The only question is whether they'll have the will to spend it.

Originally Posted by James Richter

Since moving to Target Field, the Twins' average combined spending on the MLB payroll and the Draft has been about $110M. It was about $119M last year, about $112M this year. As dreadful as the first half was, they're on pace to get the 6th or 7th overall pick next year (slotted at about half what they gave Buxton), and it doesn't look as though they'll have any supplemental picks. They're on their way to spending no more than half what they spent on the 2012 draft next year. So if they maintain a Major League payroll of about $100M, they will have reduced total player expenditures by $6-7M.

Do they need to cut any more than that? I doubt it - they're still on pace to draw over 2.8 million in attendance. The money will be there to sign two good starters. The only question is whether they'll have the will to spend it.

Hopefully the front office is smart enough to realize that basing payroll on the previous year's attendance is letting the tail wag the dog.

Spend a little less, win a little less the next season, which causes you to spend a little less, which means you win even less...

The stadium is only three years old. If you spend a few bucks on pitching and build a contender, butts will immediately return to the seats. Lose for 2-3 more years, it's no longer a given that those butts will return to the seats immediately. Look at a team like San Diego. The Padres can be playing well but people won't go watch their games... The fanbase has zero faith in the team's continued ability to win, which means that they stay away even during winning seasons, which then limits ownership's ability to retain players and maintain a high level of play in following seasons...

He's not an ace but he has pitched over 200 innings and 30+ starts each of the last 5 years and he's got a decent contract. The biggest thing this team needs now is innings out of the rotation. He will be an upgrade over the back of our current rotation.

Originally Posted by Seth Stohs

What if they're able to acquire a C-prospect for Morneau and only have to pick up, say, $4 million of his 2013 contract? There is $9.5 million more available.

I would like to keep Jamey Carroll around because he's been solid and a good influence and all that, but there's some money there.

What if they're able to trade Span for three decent prospects. There's $4 million 2013 and more for the following year.

I'm one who agrees that payroll is a little overrated. Just have to make good decisions and then get players to perform.

I agree that payroll can be overrated but only when a team is doing all that it can to put out the best product. Did the Twins do that this offseason? I question that...what I have never understood is how a team can cut payroll like the Twins did, have a predictably bad year, see attendance go down and then somehow seem surprised. I wonder if the Twins would have spent that extra money and remained competitive in a very, very vulnerable division if the organization would have made the money back with increased attendance, more concession sales and more paraphernalia sales. It seems highly likely to me. Of course there is no guarantee that the team would have been able to sign a couple of pitchers that would have made enough difference. Obviously they felt that they could not do so. Or, is this payroll cutting just a sign of things to come as this team is gutted? It remains to be seen but I think this season has cast a dark shadow over the prospects of the Twins being willing to make the signings necessary to compete even in this weaker division.

Here is my beef with the Twins cutting payroll and then eventually making claims that payroll has to be cut because of declining attendance: Terry Ryan and the Pohlads are businessmen and should have a basic understanding of business. If they think of the payroll and players as investments instead of an expense they would be more willing to "invest" in player salaries. But instead they seem to chase their tails and reduce payroll when the money coming in slows down. The way to bring back the revenue streams is to invest in good players. Just my thought on this.

I don't think there is any chance Baker could contribute next year. If he likes it here (the city and Twins mgmt) they could offer up a creative 4 year deal that makes next year a cheap rehab type of year for him.
I would like to see them try to get a multi year affordable contract for Burton. How do we get any meaningful innings out of the money we have to pay Blackburn. Could he be a 7th inning type of guy? I know that's an expensive for a role like that, but at least we are getting something out of him. Maybe he can throw harder and somehow be better if he's only going one or two innings every other day?

In this Market, the Fans never seem to hear both sides of the payroll issue. Below is one example.

In 2009, their last year at the Dome, the Twins realized a very large payday.

Their revenue came in at 162 million. The Twins starting payroll was 65+ million. This amount was far below the 50% of revenue which the Twins have sold us for years.

The Twins operating income came in at 25 million, which was the 9th highest in Baseball.

Twins fans are constantly reminded about how the Twins overpayed the payroll last year.

Did we ever hear about the large payroll under payment in 2009? As a result, the Twins earned almost as much in the last year at the Dome as they did during the first year at Target Field.


The Business Of Baseball - Forbes.com

2009 Baseball Team Payrolls - Total and Average Salaries for Major League Baseball Players