07-07-2012, 01:11 PM #1
Will there be backlash if Terry Ryan doesn’t offload any players?
Two part question, really:
- What are the odds the Twins are unable to orchestrate any trades before the end of the month?
- If that happens (and understanding there’s still the possibility of the waiver trade deadline), will it be regarded as a large failure of Terry Ryan?
07-07-2012, 01:40 PM #2
There's going to be a backlash whatever he does or doesn't do. That's the fun part about being GM!
07-07-2012, 01:43 PM #3
I will be much more concerned about who they sign in the offseason.Win Twins.
07-07-2012, 01:44 PM #4
I think the odds are probably 60-70% that a trade doesn't materialize in the next month. I wouldn't nesc. see it as a large failure on Ryan's part. He doesn't really have that much to work with. Pavano and Capps are both hurt, Liriano is pitching well right now but his sucky start is still going to hold down his value, and if any of our young arms are pitching well enough to draw interest, it's unlikely they will want to trade them since they will want to keep them around for the next couple years.
As far as the position players go, Mourneau still carries a ton of baggage with his injury history, big contract, and his current struggles against lefties. Plouffe is intriguing, but still way too inexperienced to draw real interest. You can't really get rid of Casilla or Carroll because A) not much value and B) no one to replace them. Doumit just got extended, Willingham is more valuable as an anchor for the 2013 lineup than what he's worth, and Mauer is not going anywhere. That leaves Revere or Span, and I would hope that Terry only moves those guys if he gets a very very good offer.
Other than Liriano, pretty much everyone else that could draw a decent deal is either hurt, sucking, or will still be under contract in the offseason and could be shopped then if a decent deal doesn't show up.
07-07-2012, 01:58 PM #5
Like Mike, I'd be more inclined to rant if the 2013 opening day lineup hasn't addressed starting pitching. If offloading parts now is part of that plan, great. But all it would take is money over the winter to significantly improve this team. They have money to spend. Whether the Pohlads will do that or not is another question, but it's not like trading assets is the only way to improve next year's team.
07-07-2012, 02:34 PM #6
I agree with Spidey Yo. There isn't much to offload right now. Maybe a reliever, Span or Liriano. Span and a reliever do not need to be traded unless we get overwhelmed as they have considerable time on contracts or service time requirements (no reliever is a FA until after next season except maybe Capps but I see the Twins picking up his option in all honesty. I wouldn't trade Span until we have a replacement closer to being ready otherwise we could end up with a hole in the OF for the forseeable future. Mastrioanni looks like he may want to step up and play everyday but still I mean for someone like Arcia, Sano, Hicks.
Liriano is available and I was wondering if Baltimore with Matusz going to the minors be available so Baltimore could make a push now. I know Atlanta has interest.
I also wonder if we could just pick up a veteran for the stretch drive and see if we can hang in there the rest of the year and at least be a .500 team. Seing as how a .500 team is in the pennant race in our division, that at least has entertainment value.
07-07-2012, 03:33 PM #7
If Valencia can keep improving, then he might fetch a decent price from a team that has long term needs at 3B.
07-07-2012, 03:50 PM #8
The only consideration is for players who will not be assets in 2013.
There is not much they can do about Pavano at this point.
Even options decision about Baker and Capps are no win unless Capps comes back healthy and has trade value.
The only decision must be made about Liriano. If they trade him for less than we hope, that should be a sign that they did not plan to offer him the 12-13 million required for compensation. If they keep him, it is a sign to me that they plan to offer compensation. I don't know which is the correct course. I do know that doing nothing is the incorrect course. In that case , backlash is warranted.
07-07-2012, 04:30 PM #9
I think Liriano and Capps get traded for sure. Liriano might even be as soon as the all star break if it is the right deal. I can't imagine the Twins will want to bring back either next season and they'll have value. If Pavano gets healthy he might be an August trade as a salary dump, similar to when the Twins got him from Cleveland
I don't think anyone else gets traded this year. I thought Span was a goner, but I think they'll wait until after the season and trade him for a current starter.
Twins are playing decent ball since mid-May, no reason to blow up the team for next year. As was said, it will be a matter of what Ryan does in the offseason to address the rotation that will matter the most to fans.
07-07-2012, 04:38 PM #10
I'm glad that the (Trade Everyone Frenzy) has finally subsided.
07-07-2012, 04:58 PM #11
07-07-2012, 05:01 PM #12
07-07-2012, 05:29 PM #13
07-07-2012, 05:51 PM #14
There isn't a need to trade EVERYONE.
But Pavano will be a free agent and is contributing nothing.
Matt Capps is valuable IF a team needs a reasonably priced closer with an option for next year. The Twins can pick up the option and still deal him next season.
I do see a need to move Span if possible. He isn't driving up his stock this year after a faltering last year. The Twins still can trade him next year.
Liriano has to go. But what the Twins get for selling a rental is up in the air. I'm sure no one wants the $12 million arbitration necessity.
If the Twins don't move Valencia, Casilla, Thomas, Burroughs amongst others, they won't be tendered in the fall.
The Twins DO have to cut bait with Blackburn and Toshi. Really, they do. Maybe run them out there in August and if anyone bites, you negotiate, or just let them go.
They just don't have a lot of valuable pieces, except for Willingham, Plouffe, Revere, Perkins, Diamond and Burton. I'm sure people ARE asking about those guys, not the ones we really don't need to have around.
07-07-2012, 05:53 PM #15
I don't know... Back to the original question "Will there be backlash if Terry Ryan doesn’t offload any players?" My answer has to be some. Heck... this team has not won the world series since 1991, lost 99 last season and there has not been much "backlash" (other than from a few of us who hate the fact that this team is not competing...) Most people are happy to go to the new ballpark, eat, do the wave or whatever. And most people love Gardy and Terry. They are the anointed ones. So I suspect that there will be no backlash.
On the other hand, if Ryan does not off-load and re-load with young good SP, the Twins will be up the proverbial creek... (again) but for most people that is mighty fine. OOFDA
Last edited by Thrylos; 07-07-2012 at 06:15 PM.-----
Blogging Twins since 2007 at The Tenth Inning Stretch
07-07-2012, 06:01 PM #16
I don't think there will be much backlash, for the reasons Spidey mentioned. Span is still our most tradeable asset and I think he'll be moved but he doesn't have to be moved. Buton, Capps and Liriano should all be considered, as well. We'll see how the market develops. On the other hand, I do think Ryan will have to do something to improve the starting pitching before next season but that could be done in the offseason.
07-07-2012, 06:20 PM #17
I don't think there will be a large backlash by the average fan if no major moves are made before the season ends. The casual fan is just not attuned to the whole trade deadline thing. I do think there will be some backlash if there are not some moves in the offseason that send a clear signal that the club is serious about improving. By "backlash" here I don't necessarily mean a public outcry (although you will get some of that in the press and the media), but a drop in ticket sales, both season and single game, and general fan interest. You've already seen that this season, and I expect it to accelerate if nothing is done over the off-season. And, by "send a clear signal" I don't necessarily mean they have to sign a big-name FA (Greinke or Hamels), but there had better be some moves that the average fan can identify with as progress. I think a handful (3-5?) of mid-level signings would be as effective at that as one big-name signing.
07-07-2012, 09:33 PM #18
in season trades
"Thyrlos had a list of all of the transactions of Terry Ryan. You will notice that Ryan does not trade players like Span in season. He trades players in the year before they hit free agencySee Matt Lawton"
See Matt Lawton
Last edited by Brandon; 07-07-2012 at 09:35 PM.
07-08-2012, 02:06 AM #19
See Matt Lawton[/QUOTE]
Matt Lawton had 6 years of service with the Twins. I don't know what his contract was. Free agent eligible? I am not sure why you would want to see Matt Lawton. His career post Twin was as a spare part mediocre outfielder
07-08-2012, 02:08 AM #20
It's not really a fair comparison imo. The last half of Ryan's GM tenure was spent with winning teams so he wouldn't have been dealing veterans with long term contracts. In addition I don't remember a lot of deals happening (in season or offseason) with more than 1 year left on their contracts. If they did it was more likely that the players traded were out of favor with the coaching staff or had a better replacement waiting (AJ for example).
Span will get traded when Ryan gets a good offer and it will have nothing to do with Ryan's history. I'm just hoping he doesn't force a trade and take a mediocre MLB ready starting pitcher prospect because it fills a need.
As far as I'm concerned I won't be angry if the Twins don't trade everyone. The only player that needs to be traded is Liriano. Everyone else either doesn't have a lot of (or any) value or they will be back next year. I will be angry if the Twins make crappy trades giving away good players (Span and Willy) for mediocre NEEDS because they feel like they need to make a move.