Thread: Liriano .... 4 more starts???

Originally Posted by YourHouseIsMyHouse

He has the best stuff of anyone on this roster and can actually strike out batters. I'll take that over a pitch to contact pitcher. What else should we spend money on? We aren't going to get any free agents unless they're cheap veterans. A three year deal will not kill a rebuilding process or even hamper it. There is a chance that he overperforms and provides a good presence in the rotation. No reason to sell low either. We know how that works out for the Twins.

There is a FAR greater chance we just wasted 20 million. Just because you have the money doesn't mean you toss it at someone who is statistically a bad bet. If you haven't noticed, all the Liriano cheerleaders avoid posting statistics. The reason being? For roughly 2.5 of the last 3.5 seasons he's been one of the worst starters in all of baseball by most any statistical measure.

You're welcome to hope he outperforms - just don't think you have much reason for doing so. Then your argument is more about what the Twins don't have rather than what Liriano actually is.

Originally Posted by TheLeviathan

There is a FAR greater chance we just wasted 20 million. Just because you have the money doesn't mean you toss it at someone who is statistically a bad bet. If you haven't noticed, all the Liriano cheerleaders avoid posting statistics. The reason being? For roughly 2.5 of the last 3.5 seasons he's been one of the worst starters in all of baseball by most any statistical measure.

You're welcome to hope he outperforms - just don't think you have much reason for doing so. Then your argument is more about what the Twins don't have rather than what Liriano actually is.

Get rid of him, for whatever it takes. We've waited long enough, dump him and spend some money in the offseason on a starter who has decent stuff and his head on straight.

Originally Posted by striker_86

Get rid of him, for whatever it takes. We've waited long enough, dump him and spend some money in the offseason on a starter who has decent stuff and his head on straight.

If there are no good offers before the trade deadline, why not keep him for the rest of this season and see what he does. If he does very well, then a one year offer might make some sense. And if all that you can get for him is mediocre prospects, why not just forgo the mediocre prospects and keep him for the rest of this year? It seems to me that the Twins already have an abundance of mediocre prospects.

Your hypothetical "starter who has decent stuff and his head on straight" won't come cheap and will never have the kind of ability necessary to win in the postseason. I believe that Liriano has the ability. I also concede that the chances are at least 75% that Liriano will not be able to realize his potential. The odds of success seem low here, but the level of potential success if all goes well seems very high. So I would be reluctant to trade him for anything less than at least one prospect who has a very high upside.

Originally Posted by glunn

If there are no good offers before the trade deadline, why not keep him for the rest of this season and see what he does. If he does very well, then a one year offer might make some sense. And if all that you can get for him is mediocre prospects, why not just forgo the mediocre prospects and keep him for the rest of this year? It seems to me that the Twins already have an abundance of mediocre prospects.

Your hypothetical "starter who has decent stuff and his head on straight" won't come cheap and will never have the kind of ability necessary to win in the postseason. I believe that Liriano has the ability. I also concede that the chances are at least 75% that Liriano will not be able to realize his potential. The odds of success seem low here, but the level of potential success if all goes well seems very high. So I would be reluctant to trade him for anything less than at least one prospect who has a very high upside.

This would probably be my first choice as well. If he puts up very good numbers for the rest of the season, he's worth a $12.5m offer for the pick, mainly because he wouldn't take it and might get a 3/$30m deal from somebody else.

But trading him this month should obviously be a priority.

You don't need stats to show whether or not he can pitch. To a degree yes, but if you watch him you know he can be something special and he will be. There is a reason Liriano has gotten away with those stats and a player like Cole Devries couldn't. And the reason isn't because Gardy loves him, but because he has a high ceiling. It's worth the gamble because the payroll isn't going to be an issue while rebuilding. There are so many Twins fans that complain about all of the pitch to contact pitchers and when we finally have one that can fan batters, they want to send him on the first flight out. I just think we should be even MORE patient in this case to finally be rewarded.

Originally Posted by YourHouseIsMyHouse

You don't need stats to show whether or not he can pitch. To a degree yes, but if you watch him you know he can be something special and he will be..

Like I said - pure hope. This is borderline some kind of religious faith. Reality is that he hasn't even been average. He's been a poor to awful pitcher for most of the last 3+ seasons.

I completely relate to the frustration of not having more top-end arms. But pretending Liriano is a top-end arm is just delusion. You're making him into something he's not because the team has no top-end pitching. If we're going to sink close to 10M+ into a pitcher, let's at least shoot for a guy whose performance actually reflects a top-end pitcher. It just boggles my mind that people hang on to this delusion about Liriano when the stats/reality say he hasn't even been as good as Carl Pavano over the last three years. You could argue, at best, that they're a wash. If someone was suggesting the same things in this thread about Carl Pavano we'd call them a lunatic - yet that's exactly what we're doing. And it's out of nothing more than blind hope.

Originally Posted by TheLeviathan

Like I said - pure hope. This is borderline some kind of religious faith. Reality is that he hasn't even been average. He's been a poor to awful pitcher for most of the last 3+ seasons.

I completely relate to the frustration of not having more top-end arms. But pretending Liriano is a top-end arm is just delusion. You're making him into something he's not because the team has no top-end pitching. If we're going to sink close to 10M+ into a pitcher, let's at least shoot for a guy whose performance actually reflects a top-end pitcher. It just boggles my mind that people hang on to this delusion about Liriano when the stats/reality say he hasn't even been as good as Carl Pavano over the last three years. You could argue, at best, that they're a wash. If someone was suggesting the same things in this thread about Carl Pavano we'd call them a lunatic - yet that's exactly what we're doing. And it's out of nothing more than blind hope.

I don't think he got lucky in 2006 and 2010, and the numbers he put up both years were pretty good. I wouldn't call it blind hope... There's a legitimate reason for hope. I agree that in the mean time he's been absolutely terrible and that 12.5M is a pretty signficant gamble for a team that needs 2 or 3 starters and has 21M to spend, as such, I'd trade him if you can get something decent for him... though like others said, if all you have is a Rene Tosoni type prospect, then you may as well hold on to the guy and see if he pitches himself into a multi-year contract where you can offer him arb and he rejects it.

Originally Posted by diehardtwinsfan

I don't think he got lucky in 2006 and 2010.

You realize due to a major injury that only one of these two counts as a valid season? I've always given him credit for 2010. When I say 2.5 of the last 3.5 have been awful...the one that wasn't was 2010. The rest is awful.

He's been largely awful, and he's essentially NEVER been good at the end of the year (either due to injury, or in the case of 2010 because he just wasn't any good). It's already mid-July, so the chance to move him as a rental might be soon or never. If we can get any type of B-level prospect for him, you have to think about it. I know we are desperate for SP's, but we had Liriano this year, and he's as big a reason as anyone that we're in the hole we're in.

Originally Posted by TheLeviathan

You realize due to a major injury that only one of these two counts as a valid season?

huh? So because he had Tommy John, his 2006 season doesn't count? Apparently someone forgot to expunge the 121 innings, 144k, the 2.61 ERA, and the 12-3 record.

Look, I'm not on the defender or attacker bandwagon. But let's not pretend that there isn't a mighty nice ceiling. I agree with you in that the odds of him hitting that ceiling are not too good and that the 12.5M would be better off spent elsewhere. But I do think that if the Twins cannot get something decent for him at the deadline that they would be much better off seeing if he can ride this hot streak into Sept and parlaying that into a big enough deal that they can offer him arb...

The Twins don't have the 12.5M to give up in payroll next season for one player. Read the article by John Bonnes about Twins future payroll and the potential or more cuts. Basically Bonnes claims that with the current team they will go into next year around $78Million. Attendance isn't going anywhere but down, and the team will more than likely have to cut payroll again to compensate. Unless they do some major cuts, unfortunately it just does not look very good for being able to afford Frankie.

Originally Posted by diehardtwinsfan

So because he had Tommy John, his 2006 season doesn't count?

2006 doesn't count towards his future. He was a different pitcher. We can hope for 2010 again but 2006 is never coming back. I too look back fondly on what might have been, but it's done and buried. I don't even count 2008 for/against him because his numbers are very erratic. Some numbers are good, others not.

The problem with Frankie is that any extension 8M+ is bordering on taking up 8-10% of the payroll for a guy that has been awful more often than he's been good lately. If you want to toss him a contract with less than 3M in base salary and heavy incentives - fine. I have no problem paying him like an ace if he pitches like one. But guaranteeing him a significant chunk of the team payroll is a bad bet.

Now 3-3 in last 9 starts
57.2 IP 34h .171 BAA 18er 2.81 ERA 67k 25bb 1.023 WHIP..... only 2HRs allowed but drove in 7runs with those
Only given up runs in 10 of those 58 innings in 9 starts

I still don't understand why some people are in such a rush to dump the best arm in the Twins system for little or nothing.

How many SP do the Twins need? We already have 10 +!

Zack Greinke turned in his fourth straight rough outing on Friday, allowing five runs on seven hits over five innings in a no-decision against the Pirates.

Greinke struck out six while walking two in the game. He was in line to pick up his third loss of the week until the Brewers rallied late to take him off the hook.

Liriano is barbarically frustrating. Do we TRUST this two-month run? Or do we look at the up and down year-to-year performance as being more relevant. I guess that MAYBE I think MAYBE that the $12 million offer for ONE year is worth making for the Twins. If he accepts, and dominates, all is good. If he sucks, you sink it and deal with making whatever out of that $12 million. If he doesn't accept it (very possible), you get the draft picks. It might be a lucrative situation.

Originally Posted by greengoblinrulz

Now 3-3 in last 9 starts
57.2 IP 34h .171 BAA 18er 2.81 ERA 67k 25bb 1.023 WHIP..... only 2HRs allowed but drove in 7runs with those
Only given up runs in 10 of those 58 innings in 9 starts

Can we play "in his previous" a bit further back? Apparently Liriano is a master of inspiring the Availability Heuristic.....

Did last night help or hurt his trade value? I really think it improved it for now. 15 strikeouts. He made many of the A's hitters look foolish. I have been on the Frankie roller coaster ride for too many years and I'm ready to get off. He has the best arm and the highest upside of any player on our team, yes and I mean player. He could be elite, one of the top 5 pitchers in the all of baseball and we don't have anyone else on the roster that can make that claim. He may turn into that consistent dominating starting pitcher after to moves to another team, but with his contract up there is no way we can give him $12 million. Make the trade while the demand for him is high. There has to be at least one team out there, that believes that they can make the changes in Frankie and turn him into the ace that we can all see glimpses of.

Originally Posted by USAFChief

I still don't understand why some people are in such a rush to dump the best arm in the Twins system for little or nothing.

While Liriano might have the "best arm" in the system he has been one of the 10 worst starting pitchers in baseball over the last 5 years. Interestingly enough so are Blackburn and Pavano. The only Twins starter who has been decent over that time frame is Baker.