Thread: The Revere Experiment: Range vs Arm

Originally Posted by John Bonnes

My gawd, what a love fest we have going here.

I thought I remembered multiple commenters this spring saying Revere would never make it as an outfielder because of his arm. Am I mis-remebering? Are they just ducking for cover? C'mon, someone out there has to take the other side here. Or has this truth just become that self-evident?

Or have some, like nokomosid, changed their minds?

I think some of the people questioning Revere's chances were partly including him not getting to play CF because of Span and questioning if he could hit enough to play elsewhere, so some of the arm issues may have been more the "final straw" if you will.

I've always believed range is more important than arm; range has both greater impact and greater frequency of impact than arm strength. My biggest beef is that Revere isn't playing CF, where we'd get the greatest benefit from his incredible range and the least penalty from his poor arm. Span is a fine CF, but he's also a superior LF, and Willingham's issues in the field wouldn't be any worse in RF. Our best defensive OF alignment is Span in LF, Revere in CF, and Willingham in RF. but we don't have it because Gardy prefers to cater to our players' mindset over best results on the field. Do we really believe Span and Willingham would suddenly drop off significantly if they were asked to play where it'd be best for the team over what they like the best?

First, I still think that Revere makes more sense in LF with Willingham in RF (or DH)... However, it is pretty clear that the range is much more important than the arm. I don't notice extra bases being taken too often, not enough to find it upsetting.

I'll admit being wrong (it happens a lot, I'm sure!).

Some points:

1. Revere's arm has, and will, cost the Twins a base here and there. His arm is truly awful. But, range makes up for some of that. Maybe all of it. And opposing teams go 1st to 3rd sometimes on every right fielder, so it's not a zero sum game.

2. However, the "he can't play right field" crowd has always been wrong. First, while arm strength is slightly more important in RF than LF, again it's not a zero sum game. It's not like his arm won't cost bases in left, too. Second, "his range counts for less in RF" is incorrect. That makes no sense. His "range" is the same in right as left. In fact, his range might account for more outs in right, since more balls are hit to right than left.

3. I was one of the people who was convinced Revere was going to end up a 4th outfielder, but based on his offense not his arm. I admit to having doubts about my position. If he can hit like he has, he can be an asset as a starting OFer.

There is another reason why I am appreciative of Revere. Watching a parade of waver wire pickups in right field was starting to get painful.
I can see the Clete Thomas's of the world at Saint Paul Saints games.

Originally Posted by USAFChief

Some points:

1. Revere's arm has, and will, cost the Twins a base here and there. His arm is truly awful. But, range makes up for some of that. Maybe all of it. And opposing teams go 1st to 3rd sometimes on every right fielder, so it's not a zero sum game.

2. However, the "he can't play right field" crowd has always been wrong. First, while arm strength is slightly more important in RF than LF, again it's not a zero sum game. It's not like his arm won't cost bases in left, too. Second, "his range counts for less in RF" is incorrect. That makes no sense. His "range" is the same in right as left. In fact, his range might account for more outs in right, since more balls are hit to right than left.

3. I was one of the people who was convinced Revere was going to end up a 4th outfielder, but based on his offense not his arm. I admit to having doubts about my position. If he can hit like he has, he can be an asset as a starting OFer.

Y'know, factoring the offense into the equation is an important aspect too. If Ben continues to hit and run like he's been doing, I think any extra bases he gives up because of his arm will be cancelled out by all the extra bases he'll take on the offense.

Originally Posted by spideyo

all the extra bases he'll take on the offense.

Any stats to back that up? Presumably they would be for bases taken when the next guys are hitting; because, at the moment, Ben has a grand total of 6 doubles and 2 triples for the season, for the extra bases gained all on his own.

Given all his speed, you'd expect a much greater level of legged-out doubles, and maybe an inside-the-park HR by now, so it's pretty clear that nearly all his hits are of the punch-and-judy variety, and thus don't give his speed much chance to shine.

This thread started with a look at Revere's arm versus range, and has now broadened to his total game. With an OPS of only .725, it's still a pretty ordinary production level for RF. Adequate yes, and I didn't expect even this much from him, so I'm cheerfully ready to admit I was wrong to peg him as 4th OF for this season, and he's young so we can hope for more and more improvement. But it's a little soon to anoint him as an asset versus his league competition yet, in a lineup with too many table setters and not enough all-around hitters.

I still haven't seen any stats mentioned that show bases taken against right fielders. Is it really the case that league-wide Revere is not showing up as markedly worse at this than other players?

I wasn't thinking of extra bases hits, I was thinking of the stolen bases, and the singles that would have been easy outs for a lot of other guys. If he can beat out an ugly bunt for a single, steal 2b, and then score on a single to the outfield, that easily cancels out a guy going from 1st-3rd instead of from 1st-2nd

Originally Posted by John Bonnes

My gawd, what a love fest we have going here.

I thought I remembered multiple commenters this spring saying Revere would never make it as an outfielder because of his arm. Am I mis-remebering? Are they just ducking for cover? C'mon, someone out there has to take the other side here. Or has this truth just become that self-evident?

Or have some, like nokomosid, changed their minds?

Oh hell yeah, I'll take the other side of this. There is no way that Revere should be playing right field and I bet anyone who is having a Ben Revere love fest that the second we lose a 1 run game with a sac fly to right field you all will change your tune. Is Revere a good player? Yeah. But we should trade him before the season is done and keep our CF who is team controlled for the next couple of years and hits for AVG, OBP, and has good range and an ARM in CF. Trade Revere for a starter. Let him go play CF in a park where he might have a chance of throwing the ball to the infield instead of bouncing every throw about 50 feet from the dirt.

I think our OF would be much better suited with Willingham in RF and Revere in LF... but that won't happen. Trade Revere, let Parmalee roam in RF and hopefully you get a decent pitching prospect for Revere or maybe even a #3 or #4 guy to help out this year...

Also, I am very sick and tired of every time Revere dives for a ball, or falls after catching a ball, or runs into the wall, or does a somersault after catching a ball that everyone goes on calling it the greatest catch in baseball history. He's fast, and gets to many balls other guys can't... but to usurp a guy like Span who does everything Revere does plus hits for occasional power, and has a decent arm he has a LONG way to go and until he can do it, I don't want him taking Denard's spot.

p.s. Let's not forget that what we are seeing out of Revere right now AVG wise might not stay true... he has shown spurts of this throughout the year but has yet to put it all together consistently for a season...

Originally Posted by spideyo

Y'know, factoring the offense into the equation is an important aspect too. If Ben continues to hit and run like he's been doing, I think any extra bases he gives up because of his arm will be cancelled out by all the extra bases he'll take on the offense.

I've been more frustrated the year with Revere not taking the extra base much more often than giving one up because of the arm. Somebody mentioned earlier that everybody goes first to third, I say except for Revere. I don't know what it is but it doesn't seem like the baserunning is nearly as good as it should be for someone with his speed.

I just picked through some stats, Revere has gotten first to third 3 times in 17 chances this year. For comparison, Prince Fielder is 4/21 with 2 throw outs.

To answer the question, the arm hasn't bothered me at all while there are a couple of games won strictly because of his range.

No surprise that MN good play since May 7 has come with the team ditching the RF by committee & goin with Ben out there which offsets Josh's defense (which has been very good since April).
The difference between last 5 yrs of Cuddy/Kubel in RF vs the early 2012 RFs vs Revere is pretty severe....both from watching the game & from defensive metrics. Kubel/Cuddy were 2 of the games worst defensive OF over a several yr run.
Cuddy's arm rep was more a MN thing. He has an above average arm, but was never someone others refused to run on....ala Choo or Suzuki.
Best part of Ben's arm is he realizes his limitations & isnt ashamed anymore. Hits the cutoff religiously & quickly....doesnt try to trick the runner into taking the base as players with good arms do.
With Buxton, Benson, Hicks all in minors....they are all 3 considered Gold Glove caliber gloves with all around defense....Revere in RF esp & CF probably isnt gonna last long....he will be in his natural LF soon enough.

Originally Posted by spideyo

Y'know, factoring the offense into the equation is an important aspect too. If Ben continues to hit and run like he's been doing, I think any extra bases he gives up because of his arm will be cancelled out by all the extra bases he'll take on the offense.

Can you really relate the two stats? That's like saying all the runners Joe Mauer throws out as a catcher make up for his lack of homerun hitting... Defense is defense. Offense is offense... If he gives up two sac flys in a game but then hits two singles and steals two bases but is stranded at 2nd both times is that an even trade off? Not in my mind.

Originally Posted by ashburyjohn

Any stats to back that up? Presumably they would be for bases taken when the next guys are hitting; because, at the moment, Ben has a grand total of 6 doubles and 2 triples for the season, for the extra bases gained all on his own.

Given all his speed, you'd expect a much greater level of legged-out doubles, and maybe an inside-the-park HR by now, so it's pretty clear that nearly all his hits are of the punch-and-judy variety, and thus don't give his speed much chance to shine.

This thread started with a look at Revere's arm versus range, and has now broadened to his total game. With an OPS of only .725, it's still a pretty ordinary production level for RF. Adequate yes, and I didn't expect even this much from him, so I'm cheerfully ready to admit I was wrong to peg him as 4th OF for this season, and he's young so we can hope for more and more improvement. But it's a little soon to anoint him as an asset versus his league competition yet, in a lineup with too many table setters and not enough all-around hitters.

I still haven't seen any stats mentioned that show bases taken against right fielders. Is it really the case that league-wide Revere is not showing up as markedly worse at this than other players?

My gut feeling was that his baserunning was markedly worse than average and the stats seem to back that up. His extra base taken percentage is 32% while league average is 40%. He should be an almost automatic first to third but rarely does. If he would run the bases like he runs in the outfield it would be pretty sweet.

The reasons why Revere is better suited for LF rather than RF are two-fold. As noted, in LF, his arm would be less of a liability on throws to third and, also, since LF at Target Field is larger than RF, his range would be more of an asset there.

I agree that, in both of those cases, the differences are not very consequential but they are there. You do have to factor in that Willingham would have to play right and doesn't want to. It seems like it would be do-able for him to transition there but might not be worth it if he plays worse there than he does in left.

Originally Posted by John Bonnes

My gawd, what a love fest we have going here.

I thought I remembered multiple commenters this spring saying Revere would never make it as an outfielder because of his arm. Am I mis-remebering? Are they just ducking for cover? C'mon, someone out there has to take the other side here. Or has this truth just become that self-evident?

Or have some, like nokomosid, changed their minds?

There were plenty. Ben's bat and feet made them duck out of this thread. =D

Originally Posted by USAFChief

Some points:

2. However, the "he can't play right field" crowd has always been wrong. First, while arm strength is slightly more important in RF than LF, again it's not a zero sum game. It's not like his arm won't cost bases in left, too. Second, "his range counts for less in RF" is incorrect. That makes no sense. His "range" is the same in right as left. In fact, his range might account for more outs in right, since more balls are hit to right than left.

Is that true? It is not obvious - I would think the opposite. Most hitters are right-handed, and most hitters pull the ball, so I would think there would be a lot more balls to left field than to right field. That (along with the aforementioned bigger space and shorter throws to 3rd) would be the reason I think it would make a lot more sense for him to play LF over RF.

But I'll be interested to find out if I'm wrong.

Originally Posted by John Bonnes

Is that true? It is not obvious - I would think the opposite. Most hitters are right-handed, and most hitters pull the ball, so I would think there would be a lot more balls to left field than to right field. That (along with the aforementioned bigger space and shorter throws to 3rd) would be the reason I think it would make a lot more sense for him to play LF over RF.

But I'll be interested to find out if I'm wrong.

This has been posted before: right fielders make more put outs than left fielders virtually every year, something on the order of 10 percent or so. I'm not going to do the research again, it can be found on baseball ref. Check put outs by RFer vs. by LFer. CFers make more than either left or right.

Originally Posted by USAFChief

This has been posted before: right fielders make more put outs than left fielders virtually every year, something on the order of 10 percent or so. I'm not going to do the research again, it can be found on baseball ref. Check put outs by RFer vs. by LFer. CFers make more than either left or right.

I know the above has been out there before, but is there corresponding data that you (or anyone else) knows of on balls hit to the various fields? I'm curious if there's just more balls hit to RF and that's all there is to it, or if there are more in the air but fewer on the ground, or if it's possible RF's are just showing more range, or something else.

Originally Posted by CDog

I know the above has been out there before, but is there corresponding data that you (or anyone else) knows of on balls hit to the various fields? I'm curious if there's just more balls hit to RF and that's all there is to it, or if there are more in the air but fewer on the ground, or if it's possible RF's are just showing more range, or something else.

Ive looked for spray chart data, can't find it. But if right fielders are annually catching more balls than left fielders isn't that what we care about?

Originally Posted by Mauerzy4Prez

I have said all along on multiple different threads here that Revere is a premier player to come, and his speed and instincts in the outfield significantly make up for his lack of arm strength. Anybody that understands how baseball is played and really gets the outfield position, should know that good reads/good angles to the ball/accurate cut off throws/great speed/relentless effort without care for ones body, outweigh a weak arm any day. Now add the fact that the kid can just flat out hit, and we have a piece of the puzzle that needs to be held on to. I probably watch almost every game the Twins play, and have been watching Ben closely ever since comments were made on here about how runners will have no problem at all going from 1st to 3rd on routine singles to right. Not once have I seen a play where a runner advanced to third due to his lack of arm strength. Where are all the Revere haters now?!

Revere's routes to fly balls are atrocious! He makes up for it with great athletic ability and speed. That is why Span plays CF.

I'm not saying that Revere is not turning into a major league outfielder. I'm one of the biggest Revere bashers out there, but he still has a ways to go...