07-02-2012, 10:43 AM #1
Sellers - - - - Buyers - - - - ?????
Mid season, Twins - should they be sellers or buyers?
Here is something to consider:
In the past 28 games (June, and 1 in July) - the Twins are 15-13, are 3rd in MLB in hits, 8th in OBP, 14th in SLG, and 9th in OPS. They are 8.5 games out of the lead in the miserable AL Central. Now - if you ignore 2011, and focus only on 2012, especially the past 28 games, - -- is this a team that should be unloading?
07-02-2012, 10:47 AM #2
They're absolutely sellers. No question.Staff Writer for Tomahawktake.com, come check it out!
07-02-2012, 10:55 AM #3
They need too many starters to contend. Better to try to stock up and make a run in either 2013 or 2014.
07-02-2012, 11:02 AM #4
We got fooled on this last year - chasing a false chance to contend and missing opportunities to restock the system at the trade deadline. Not this year.
07-02-2012, 11:02 AM #5
why would I ignore the past year, and only look at 28 games?
07-02-2012, 11:04 AM #6
I just hope Ryan makes the right trades. Good value for the players that we don't need or have the ability to replace in the near future.
07-02-2012, 11:07 AM #7
You are delusional if you think this team should be buying.
07-02-2012, 11:21 AM #8
sellers...and its not even close.formerly known as torii_hunter_mvp on byto.
07-02-2012, 11:25 AM #9
Sellers... Failing to acquire or develop Arms could lead to an uncomfortable period of non contention that will be longer than we care to tolerate. Getting hot and climbing back in the race would be a bad thing for the future of this organization.
07-02-2012, 11:28 AM #10
07-02-2012, 11:32 AM #11
Most likely sellers. But you can wait 10-14 more games and see. If they go 11-3 and are 3 games back, then I'd keep who they have. They can unload Capps regardless. I don't think the pen is worse without him by much.
07-02-2012, 11:52 AM #12
Sellers, sellers, sellers, sellers. Sellers.
I'd be happy with these guys traded:
Either Span or Willingham. (man I wish Benson was knocking on the door so they could trade them both)
3 of these 4: Burton, Perkins, Liriano, Grey
Anyone who wants Capps, Valencia, Casilla, or Pavano thrown in can have them. Morneau is more complicated. I'd trade him if someone actually offered someone the twins throught would slot into the twins system as a top 15 prospect, but I doubt that would be offered.
I'd love it if the Twins sent a big package to one team - say Span, Burton and Liriano, and got a AA pitcher that could contribute in 2013 or 2014. Build around Gibson, Diamond, the new pitcher, a FA signing, and Hendriks/Walters/Bromberg/Wimmers/FA signing. Sheesh do they need starters.
07-02-2012, 11:54 AM #13
The Twins have been the worst team in the AL since the last 2 months of the 2010 season. This team has Zero chance of competing if they add Hamels and Greinke.
The sole focus should be building the farm system for a run in 2014 or 2015.
07-02-2012, 11:59 AM #14
Oh, well, if they add Greinke and Hamels, then yes, they should keep buying, but that's not going to happen, not even remotely.Win Twins.
07-02-2012, 12:39 PM #15
I hope the management sees it in a different way.
Teams are always buyers. At some point, a team will go from buying for 2012 to buying for 2013.
At this point the priority should be to take care of assets that will no longer be under team control after the season. They did that with Doumit. I would have preferred a trade this summer, but they did something to buy for 2013.
They have four options with Liriano and their rights to around 17 more starts.
1-Trade and receive whatever 13-17 Liriano starts is worth
2-Extend his contract this summer.
3-Plan to offer compensation level contract and minimally guarantee two picks or his return for a year.
4-Let him leave in free agency.
Any of the top three buy with 2013 in mind. The Twins can't let option 4 occur even if the return seems too low.
The other decisions regarding 2013 include options for Baker and Capps and an expiring contract for Pavano. Should they be buying any of these assets for 2013?
Unfortunately, all of these guys are injured. At best, they may find someone to take Pavano in a waiver claim deal in August. Their medical team will have to guide them in deciding about Baker. He is certainly capable of returning the value left in his option if healthy. Is Capps worth 6 million next year? I don't think so. I hope they can turn him into a different 2013 asset. If they have decided they are not going to pick up his option, they must trade him for whatever is the best deal.
Every other player is under contract for next year. Any trade has to clearly leave them better off for the future.
Morneau - If they find a team to take his contract and turn those dollars into starting pitching in the winter free agent market, it is a buy for 2013. Any return in the trade would be a bonus.
Span, Willingham, Perkins... - It is very unlikely they will be better off in 2013 by trading them this summer. In fact, there is no evidence to support that a midseason trade brings more value. A trade this winter is no less likely in returning value. While it is true that there is more urgency midseason, the winter offers more potential buyers and much more roster flexibility to make a deal. There were only three midseason deals last year that netted players from Baseball America's top 100. It took Beltran, Pence and Jimenez to return that value. It doesn't seem likely that the Twins have better to offer. The closest comp to Span, Michael Bourn, netted 4 mediocre prospects.
The Twins are buyers. Buying for the future.
07-02-2012, 12:40 PM #16
07-02-2012, 12:52 PM #17
While there are hopes and dreams of selling, that has not been Ryan's MO. Trade something of value to get value in return. The one exception was Kyle Lohse. The Twins have available at best bit parts for other teams. That will not net a starter unless Ryan can steal one. (Mays for Kelley et al.) The Span talk is exercise unless someone really blows Ryan away. He has never sold vital assets at that point in years of service
07-02-2012, 12:55 PM #18
07-02-2012, 01:28 PM #19
Why would Hamels or Greinke sign with the Twins? They will have several options. The only way is to significantly overpay in terms of years and dollars.
07-02-2012, 01:29 PM #20