Thread: Attention Mauer Haters!

Originally Posted by Fire Dan Gladden

Joe is now 5th in the AL in batting and 1st in OBP.

He is also 2nd among all catchers in BA, 2B, OBP, and OPS (thanks to the currently godlike Carlos Ruiz). He is 3rd in walks and... wait for it... AB!

C'mon haters, bring it on!

Don't forget the 4 Home runs. Yea take that all you haters, now would someone please get him a refill of whatever he took in 2009 so he can at least get to double figures in HR's this season.

Originally Posted by rocketpig

Runs scored aren't valued by stat hounds. They're the other side of the RBI coin, largely dependent on what others do behind you and little to do with your own play past "you got on base". Mauer is quite a bit better at getting on base than Puckett. It's not his fault the guys behind him aren't driving him home.

As for RBIs, well... You're just wrong on that account. Here are the career splits for Mauer and Puckett.

Mauer:
RISP: .953 OPS
Men On: .917 OPS

Puckett:
RISP: 879 OPS
Men On: .874 OPS

Naturally, Mauer also has a much better OBP in those situations.

As for "team leaders", I don't buy into that very much (or at all, really). A single player can only do so much. Puckett had great playoff moments for sure but so much of that is luck and timing in a SSS that I can't put much weight in it (and it's not as if Mauer hasn't had his shining moments in critical situations).

Runs scored is partly a reflection on what you do once you're on base (advancing via steal, hit, "taking the extra base", WP/PB, etc.), and partly by how many HRs you hit, as well as who is hitting behind you, and Mauer has had a series of great hitters behind him, probably who hit at a higher level than those behind Puck, so yes, it is partly Mauer's fault and to Puck's credit.

Regarding RBIs/RISP-- Fine, I am aware of this stat as it is front and center regarding Mauer's performance all the time- this is what is so confounding about Mauer's RISP numbers while batting in the 3 spot. Crunch the numbers around the league who bat #3 which is a premier RBI spot in the order, and year after year Mauer is in the bottom half for RBI. There are many factors that come into play, but you can't simply say it was because Puckett played in more games that he has . Both batted largely in the same spot in the order, Puck averaged 149 games/yr and Mauer averaged 134 games/yr with that huge differential in average RBI/yr, far greater than the 15 less games played. This suggests there are other factors with RISP that have to account for this difference- IE, how many of Joe's hits with RISP actually drive in a runner, and what is the SLG% for both with RISP? Plus, what is the value of Runs Created when not in RISP situations?

Originally Posted by rocketpig

Riiiiiight. We're "mindlessly protecting" Joe by saying that he's a very, very good baseball player and backing that up with statistics and player comps that show he is, in fact, a very, very good baseball player.

Objectively looking at the situation, I'd say Dave and I are doing the exact opposite of what you just said.

On this basic fact, I am in full agreement.

I think where some of the disagreement comes is that I would proffer that all Twins fans have an investment in seeing that this contract "investment" made by the Twins gets a maximum return on capital- on Joe- and what and how his role on the team best benefits the Twins in getting back to making serious runs at the Series on an annual basis.

In Comparison with production around the league... His numbers are not worth 23 million a year. In Comparison... If Mike Trout is worth what he is making... Albert Pujols is worth less!

He is being paid 23 million a year because he was worth probably more than 23 million a year when he signed the contract and that value was set by what the Market will pay him and the Market would have paid him!

Comparing him to #3 hitters around the league should have nothing to do with anything! Comparing his numbers to 1st basemen or Catchers and saying his position determines his value and then trying to determine the value of his contract in retrospect has nothing to do with anything!

The Twins paid him 23 million and once that is done. He bats where he bats in the context of his team and he plays whatever position he plays in the context of his team!

Originally Posted by rocketpig

Joe Mauer would have received more than $181m on the open market. The Yankees, Red Sox, and other large market teams were absolutely clamoring to find a good catcher in 2009. Posada was on his way out. Varitek was 150 years old. Mauer would have received Pujols-type money from one of those teams.

My best guess is that he might have cleared over $181M, but I think it would have been in the ballpark. $23M/year IS right around Pujolsish money at the time, and that long of a deal (which extended onto his earlier deal, not ripping up the last year) was a very long deal for a catcher.

The other issue is that he would have been a free agent after 2010, not 2009. He didn't have as great a year in 2010 and he ended the season really hurt. There's no way to replay 2010 if he's in a contract year, and he may not have ended up the season hurt, but he still would have played it in Target Field.

I guess my point is that there was very little hometown discount, if any applied, and I said so at the time. That doesn't mean he's a bad guy, just a shrewd negotiator. If he would have given a big home town discount - say $20M/year instead of $23M - I'm not sure people would be any less critical right now.

And there is a reason for that. This winner's curse for this sort of a deal necessitates: you're overpaying. There are 30 teams that are determining your value, but your value isn't the average of what they come up with. It's the value that the most desperate of them comes up with. You can argue whether it is an error giving enormous money to a superstar. But the bigger error is in thinking that a deal like that - and this includes all the talk about the contract Hamels or Grienke is going to get - is EVER going to be worth what is being paid. It's not going to, almost by design.

Originally Posted by jokin

Runs scored is partly a reflection on what you do once you're on base (advancing via steal, hit, "taking the extra base", WP/PB, etc.), and partly by how many HRs you hit, as well as who is hitting behind you, and Mauer has had a series of great hitters behind him, probably who hit at a higher level than those behind Puck, so yes, it is partly Mauer's fault and to Puck's credit.

Regarding RBIs/RISP-- Fine, I am aware of this stat as it is front and center regarding Mauer's performance all the time- this is what is so confounding about Mauer's RISP numbers while batting in the 3 spot. Crunch the numbers around the league who bat #3 which is a premier RBI spot in the order, and year after year Mauer is in the bottom half for RBI. There are many factors that come into play, but you can't simply say it was because Puckett played in more games that he has . Both batted largely in the same spot in the order, Puck averaged 149 games/yr and Mauer averaged 134 games/yr with that huge differential in average RBI/yr, far greater than the 15 less games played. This suggests there are other factors with RISP that have to account for this difference- IE, how many of Joe's hits with RISP actually drive in a runner, and what is the SLG% for both with RISP?

His SLG is on par with Puckett, a bit higher IIRC without looking at the stats again.

As for runs scored, people really underrate what Kent Hrbek brought with the stick behind Puckett. Kent was essentially a healthier version of Justin Morneau who hit behind Puckett for Kirby's entire career.

Is Joe a little slower than Puckett and therefore doesn't go first-to-third as often, doesn't score from second as often,etc? I think that's a fair assumption.

On the other hand, Joe gets on base 4% more often than Kirby. That more than offsets the speed difference between the players.

I'm not a stat guy by any means but I did do a seasonal comparison between the two not including Mauer's #s this year.
Kirby's averages are BA-318, HR-17, Doubles-34, RBI-90 and Hits-192
Mauer's averages are BA-324. HR-10, Doubles-27, RBI-66 and Hits-137

I know these aren't per ab #s but you can also throw in Kirby's leadership, durability and two rings. I like Joe but (IMO) he's got a long way to go to be put in Kirby's league. jmo

Originally Posted by John Bonnes

My best guess is that he might have cleared over $181M, but I think it would have been in the ballpark. $23M/year IS right around Pujolsish money at the time, and that long of a deal (which extended onto his earlier deal, not ripping up the last year) was a very long deal for a catcher.

The other issue is that he would have been a free agent after 2010, not 2009. He didn't have as great a year in 2010 and he ended the season really hurt. There's no way to replay 2010 if he's in a contract year, and he may not have ended up the season hurt, but he still would have played it in Target Field.

Gotta disagree with you John. He had a solid 2010 season, not as good as 2009 but still very good - arguably his second or third best year. For comparison, while it was a viewed as a down year, he still had a higer OPS+ that year than the Teixeira, ARod, David Ortiz, Pedroia etc. And that doesn't even attempt to consider his defensive value. That offseason saw Carl Crawford and Jayson Werth get stupid money. Yanks, Tigers and Red Sox were all looking for a catcher. (As an aside, can you imagine Mauer playing fulltime at Fenway? His inside outside swing would pepper the monster and all those outs would be base hits there). One of those three teams (or the Nats or someone else) would've flown over the 8/200 mark for him.

And I still think people underestimate his offense. He's a great hitter, even for a first baseman. His career OPS+ (only an offensive stat) is highter than Teixeira, Morneau, David Wright, HanRam, Youk etc. While we are mentioning that he is playing more 1B/DH this year, he's usually playing them when he's banged up a bit. If he was a fulltime 1B or DH, I'd expect his OPS+ to increase with the decrease of his catching duties.

Originally Posted by SpiritofVodkaDave

So I point out statistical evidence stating that Mauer is one of the best 5 players in the history of the franchise, and that if he stays healthy he will be a hall of famer, you rebuttal with calling me Sid Hartman and claim since Mauer is not a home run hitter he is not a good ball player and I am the simpleton?

Neat.

I didn't call you Sid Hartman.

I compared your statement about Mauer haters to those who refuse to criticize him, regardless of how much he gets paid, what position he plays, how soft he is, or how much of a clubhouse guy he isn't.

Maybe I should have rephrased my point.

There's too much hand-wringing over Mauer's contract. Is he worth $23 million? No, put paying him what he's worth was never an option. The Twins had 3 choices:

1) Overpay him - it's a fantasy to think we could have signed him for much less than we did. A player of that caliber hits the open market, someone will give him stupid money.
2) Trade him after '09 (a la Santana)
3) Let him walk after '10 (a la Hunter)

2 and 3 were simply not realistic options given circumstances with Joe's popularity and the pending move to Target Field, so we went with 1, which, ironically, was the exact type of move Twins fans spent years about the team not making.

Joe will probably never lead the league in home runs.

And while I'm not close enough to the situation to really question his leadership, he does come across as a guy who's a sheep, not a shepherd.

But the guy can do some things that very few others can, and has a good chance of ending up in Cooperstown one day. The 'fans' who do nothing but rip on him would be wise to try and enjoy him for what he is instead of always lamenting what he isn't, because he's a special player, and you don't see many like him.

Originally Posted by cr9617

I didn't call you Sid Hartman.

I compared your statement about Mauer haters to those who refuse to criticize him, regardless of how much he gets paid, what position he plays, how soft he is, or how much of a clubhouse guy he isn't.

Maybe I should have rephrased my point.

Or you shouldn't use 50% categories to criticize that are you simply basing on things in your imagination. Perhaps we should compare to Roy Hobbs' stats?

Everyone does realize that Puck signed a three year deal for $9 million, he was the most expensive player in history at that point. Mauer not.

If Mauer continues what he does best and can break 10HRs I will be completely satisfied.

It's great to see Joe in the top five BA's again. I'd put money on him to win another batting title. I'm glad he's a Twin and an All-Star. Go Joe!

In Mauers defense Wade Boggs Ichiro and Tony Gwynn have combined for 1 20+ HR season

BTW, Mauer homered today.

Originally Posted by mnfireman

BTW, Mauer homered today.

nope... yesterday

Originally Posted by fatbeer

In Mauers defense Wade Boggs Ichiro and Tony Gwynn have combined for 1 20+ HR season

Good comparison. All HOFer's except for Ichiro who is a shoe in when his time comes.

FDG opened up a can of worms when he started this thread.

The Mauer contract/production talk is old, stale and boring.

It seems apparent that he has to have a 2009 season every year for people to pause their mob mentality and quench their thirst for his blood.

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Yawn...when is the next Promote Sano thread? I miss those thrilling discussions. With you Barks.

Originally Posted by SpiritofVodkaDave

If you hate Mauer, you are basically a fair weather fan/brain dead moron.

This sentence got me thinking about something I once pondered probably entirely too much once upon a time. And that's the psychology of the fan that loves to bag on the superstar athlete. I never could understand why a person who purports to be a fan of a game and even a particular team would go on and on and on at times about how much they despise someone who is fantastic at that game (and often for their team) for no apparent reason. During the time I really gave this a lot of consideration, I tried to notice what it was people had to say. The overwhelming thing I kept seeing and hearing and reading was essentially an attempt to inflate themselves in the way of the, "Back in my day..." personality. The "I'd be so much tougher/better/etc" if I were him or the "my expectations are so high" to imply that they're somehow morally superior. Naturally, they don't often quite phrase it exactly that way, but the motivation appeared the same an awful lot.

I guess you may be putting that in the brain dead moron category.