07-01-2012, 11:15 AM #21
[QUOTE=rocketpig;29622]I'll probably get blasted for saying this but Joe Mauer is a better baseball player than Kirby Puckett.
I'm not the one to blast anyone on here but what do you consider Mauer better at other than career avg.
07-01-2012, 11:36 AM #22
I would say the main reason his popularity has taken such a big hit, is this: He and his agent used the Hometown angle to squeeze every nickle out of the Twins that they could. They knew that Twins would face a PR nightmare if he signed elsewhere, and the FO couldn't allow that to happen. While there was no doubt other teams would have offered as much or more for his services, it's pretty clear that Joe could never survive the pressure and media scrutiny that would go along with playing in a place like Boston, NY, or maybe Philly or L.A. I don't think he ever had any intention of playing anywhere other than MN, knowing full well the Twins would be forced into offering a massive contract. Forget about a Hometown Discount, the Twins had to pay a Hometown Premium to keep him here. Even though, i don't think he ever had any desire to play in bigger market with all that pressure and scrutiny.
He's one of us. His agent used that angle and had the Twins over a barrel. Then his production goes down, he starts to transition away from catcher, he shows us how soft he is, how clueless he can be, and how non-exsistent his leadership qualities are. He's the anti-Kirby Puckett.
We all know he's a great hitter. But he's paid like a top 5 player in the game, and he's more like a top 30 player. And some of the fan base feels cheated by one of their own....and he still doesn't quite seem to get it.
07-01-2012, 11:40 AM #23
His career OBP is a whopping 40 points higher than Kirby, who never posted an OBP higher than .379. Joe is on his way to cresting a .400 OBP for a fifth time in his career. The only tangible advantage Kirby had over Joe was in stolen bases, which Kirby basically stopped doing in his mid to late 20s.
Kirby Puckett was a very good baseball player. Joe Mauer is a better one.
07-01-2012, 11:45 AM #24
07-01-2012, 12:11 PM #25
1) If Mauer really wanted Pujols-type money, he could have waited for FA to bid his value even higher
2) GM Bill Smith
3) Mauer has career year at age 26 in 09
4) Mauer's power production numbers were wildly inflated in a soon-to-be irrelevant stadium
5) Even as he was producing numbers that were ridiculous for a catcher, his full-time catching days were already numbered
6) Mauer was physically breaking down even as his numbers were still on the upswing
7) The Twins couldn't possibly afford the PR disaster of losing the "face of the franchise" during Target Field's marketing stage
8) Did I mention Bill Smith? Oh yeah, Shapiro was "negotiating" with possibly the most unprepared GM in sports history
07-01-2012, 12:16 PM #26
If Joe Mauer can stay relatively healthy for the next 7 or so years he will goto the hall of fame. Since he already doesn't rely on home runs or speed to obtain his very good .874 Career OPS there is no reason why he can't continue to put up .860-.900 OPS seasons until he is 35 or so.
Just take a look at his top 10 similarity scores through age 28 on Baseball Reference:
1. Mickey Cochrane (Hall of Famer)
2. Bill Dickey (Hall of Famer)
3. Jason Kendall (Kendall was quite good for his first 5-6 years)
4. Yoggi Berra (Hall of Famer)
5. Victor Martinez
6. Jose Vidro
7. Gary Carter (Hall of Famer)
8. Derek Jeter (Future hall of famer)
9. Nomar (Was on his way to a HOF career before he broke down)
10. Charlie Gehringer (hall of famer)
Also, Mauer is putting up very similar numbers as Rod Carew did while he was a Twin (higher OPS, slightly lower OPS+), and he has done all of this playing the most demanding position on the field (the majority of the time), oh and he plays that position extremely well often being cited as one of the best defensive catchers in the game.
Mauer has already placed him self somewhere in the top 5 Twins of all time (I place him above Olivia, and close to equal to Puckett and Carew) and an argument could be made that he will end up the 2nd best Twin of all time by the end of this contract.
So what does all of this suggest?
If you hate Mauer, you are basically a fair weather fan/brain dead moron. Yes, 23MM is a lot of money, it would have been nice if they could have gotten him on board for 18MM-20MM a season, but for hall of fame production I will take that contract any day.
07-01-2012, 12:18 PM #27
07-01-2012, 12:20 PM #28
Both were elite fielders, but I think Mauer gets the slight edge on defensive value since catcher is generally considered the toughest position in baseball followed by SS, 2B and CF. Though some people switch 2B and CF which is fine.
Also it should be noted that I am one of the biggest Kirby Puckett fans/defenders out there.
07-01-2012, 12:44 PM #29
This just in... in other news... pepperoni pizza is better than sausage pizza.
07-01-2012, 12:48 PM #30
07-01-2012, 12:48 PM #31
I'm saying it's a mute point. He never intended to leave the Twins, and he wouldn't last 1 day in NY or Boston, and he knows it. He would have been absolutely destroyed last year. He can't even handle the media pressure in the Twin Cities....
07-01-2012, 12:50 PM #32
You are largely correct about tangibles, although the last 10 years of Puck's career, when he converted himself to a power player, he averaged 20.3 HRs/YR-- Most players develop more power over time, not less-- Joe has done it once, and will likely never come close to that number again. The RBI stat has largely been discounted by modern day stat-hounds as a statistic of random/lucky opportunities, I still don't think it properly accounts for "timely hitting"- IE, Puck averaged 96 RBI/yr for his career on many more bad teams and bad hitters batting in front of him, Mauer has averaged only 69 RBI/yr, with some very good plate protection behind him. Runs scored is valued by stat-hounds, Kirby averaged 89/year, Mauer has averaged only 75/year. Career SLG%: Puck-477/Mauer-469.
And that gets me to the intangible advantages, and Puck proved in his career that he was ready and willing to be the team leader- still waiting for Joe to step up to the plate, I hope it happens, but I remain doubtful.
07-01-2012, 12:57 PM #33
"Runs scored" is not valued by stat hounds because it is mostly dependent on what your teammates do, just like RBIs. you might be thinking of weighted runs created (or wRC+) in that case Mauer in fact leads Puckett with a 133 to 122 score.
07-01-2012, 12:58 PM #34
BTW..I don't hate Joe Mauer. I just hate everything he represents, that's all. He just isn't worth anything near 23 mill per year for 8 years. There are a lot of guys in the league that can a game with one swing of the bat, and he's not one of them.
07-01-2012, 12:58 PM #35
Bill Smith: Ron, Good to see you... I'm looking forward to getting a deal done right now. Our people have spent a lot of time looking at the situation and we love Joe and want to see him in a Twins Uniform for a long time. I have prepared a very generous offer for you to take a look at. (slides piece of paper across the desk)
Ron Shapiro: This says... 8 Years at 10 million per? He's the American League MVP! This is the offer?
Bill Smith: Well... I know our scouts and evaluators have always projected that Joe will someday become a power hitter capable of 20 plus homers a year and I know he hit 28 in the past year despite missing all of April.
Ron Shapiro... Don't forget his OPS over one thousand.
Bill Smith: I'm not sure what you mean by that Ron... It's impossible to bat over one thousand... Joe hit .365... So let's keep the discussion grounded in reality. (Ron Shapiro just stares... not sure what to say)
Ron Shapiro: Bill... It's a combination of... (Bill Cuts him off)
Bill Smith: Ron... I know our scouts have projected Joe to be a bigger power hitter and it looks like that is coming true... However, Michael J. Fox has come back from the future and presented us with an evaluation from Fan Graphs that says Joe is going to be worth 10 Million a year in 2012.
Ron Shapiro: Fan Graphs?
Bill Smith: Yeah... I don't know what Fan Graphs is either but Michael J. Fox was pretty excited about it. He's was shaking in excitement. Could barely get the words out.
Ron Shapiro: I'll take this to Joe but I should say that we are under the impression that he will be paid a lot more by other clubs when his contract expires next year. I'm not sure that 10 million for that period of time makes sense.
Bill Smith: You gotta consider the hometown discount thing-a-ma-job... Don't ya... Joe does want to stay in Minnesota.
Ron Shapiro: He does... This is home... He wants to be a Twin for life... However, the Players Association will throw watermelons at him if he signs under value to this degree.
Bill Smith: How far off are we?
Ron Shapiro: Well the Yankees paid Teixeira 180 million for 8 years.
Bill Smith: We are not the Yankees!
Ron Shapiro: Yeah but the Yankees are the Yankees and they have my phone number.
Last edited by Riverbrian; 07-01-2012 at 01:28 PM.
07-01-2012, 01:00 PM #36
As for RBIs, well... You're just wrong on that account. Here are the career splits for Mauer and Puckett.
RISP: .953 OPS
Men On: .917 OPS
RISP: 879 OPS
Men On: .874 OPS
Naturally, Mauer also has a much better OBP in those situations.
As for "team leaders", I don't buy into that very much (or at all, really). A single player can only do so much. Puckett had great playoff moments for sure but so much of that is luck and timing in a SSS that I can't put much weight in it (and it's not as if Mauer hasn't had his shining moments in critical situations).
07-01-2012, 01:01 PM #37
07-01-2012, 01:02 PM #38
I think if the Twins had a decent pitching staff and were in contention nobody would care what his salary was nor that he sold shampoo and beer on the side. Winning cures a lot grumbling. As a career his splits would indicate he is about the same home or away so you can't really say 6 years of the Metrodome inflated his numbers.
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No one ball player is ever worth a quarter of the team's payroll unless the farm system is cranking out two decent players a year. The Twins are not doing the latter.
I Split G GS PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS TB GDP HBP SH SF IBB ROE BAbip ▾ tOPS+ Away 478 457 2096 1819 289 590 129 8 49 277 22 1 253 221 .324 .405 .485 .890 882 49 5 1 18 49 16 .345 103 Home 509 483 2108 1821 293 588 104 9 39 261 16 11 251 203 .323 .404 .454 .858 827 72 11 2 23 42 15 .343 97
Last edited by old nurse; 07-01-2012 at 01:05 PM.
07-01-2012, 01:03 PM #39
Objectively looking at the situation, I'd say Dave and I are doing the exact opposite of what you just said.
07-01-2012, 01:17 PM #40
Mauer was Worth 23 Million at the time... Do you really expect Joe Mauer to settle for a lower figure to stay in Minnesota? That would be stupid?
The only thing the Twins could have done differently is wait until the end of his contract to negotiate a contract and maybe his 2010 year would have brought the value down but that's a real big maybe.
2009 was a huge year and if he repeats it in 2010. That 23 Million becomes much larger and now you have to compete with the Yankees and Red Sox to retain him.
I think it's possible that Bill Smith made some mistakes during his regime. Joe Mauer's Contract was pretty much a no brainer at the time. It only looks bad using that 20-20 hindsight thing.
Don't hate Mauer... Hate the Yankees... That's what I do... and it feels much better to hate the Yankees BTW.
The Yankees are perhaps the most obvious example of why salaries are where they are. They out bid teams for the services of players and that drives the prices up.
Last edited by Riverbrian; 07-01-2012 at 01:37 PM.