Thread: Twins chances of making the playoffs this year

On the baseball standings page of ESPN, they include each team's chances of making the playoffs this year. You can look at this here if you want -- http://espn.go.com/mlb/standings/_/s...ent/order/true

ESPN puts the Twins chances at 0.9% (slightly less than one percent). But I wonder if they take into account the potential magic that could happen, such as the ascension of Babe Plouffe and the possibility that Mauer, Morneau etc. could start playing at their prior levels, and the possibility that Diamond, Liriano and at least two other starters can provide solid second halves.

What do you think? What are the Twins' chances of making the playoffs THIS year. And please feel free to comment.

I'm glad to see the Babe Plouffe moniker is catching on! Perhaps I'm too much of an optimist, but that's what makes sports fun, right? I say greater than 10%. I think Diamond and Liriano gives the Twins two solid starters at the top of the rotation, the bullpen is good, and a Span, Revere, Mauer, Willingham, Morneau, Plouffe, Doumit top 7 is pretty darn good. With all the other flawed teams in this division, and our historical ability to dominate the Central, I think this thing is far from over.

No Cuddyer = No Magic = No Late Season Run

I feel like there's a good chance the team that wins the AL Central will have a losing record. That said, the Twins still have to leapfrog four teams in half a season with a ton of head-to-head matchups remaining between those other four teams, which best-case-scenario would see those four teams all play .500 against each other and the Twins beat up on them. 8.5 games back isn't ridiculously difficult, but it would have to be even more of a magic fairytale second half than 2003 or 2009. I'd say there's a 2% chance the Twins could pull that off.

As much as I would like to believe, I'm going to go with ESPN on this one. To believe more assumes not only that the Twins make a massive surge, but that every other team in the AL Central plays poorly the rest of the season. My guess is that either Chicago or Detroit is going to go on a good run sooner or later and put this thing away.

Is it scary to think that the number on ESPN.com was lower earlier this year?

This thread reminded me of this scene from Dumb and Dumber:

If the Twins make the playoffs, I will cut a body part off, and Twins Daily members get to decide which part to chop off.

Edit: It just can't be something that will kill me.

Originally Posted by Yoshii

If the Twins make the playoffs, I will cut a body part off, and Twins Daily members get to decide which part to chop off.

Edit: It just can't be something that will kill me.

Just because you said that they will now make the playoffs. Wouldn't that be something!

A week ago Vegas had the Twins as 150:1 odds to win the central. I'd say that was pretty generous, especially with the fact that Detroit is starting to play a little better and the White Sox just got a big boost to the lineup.

Originally Posted by SpiritofVodkaDave

A week ago Vegas had the Twins as 150:1 odds to win the central. I'd say that was pretty generous, especially with the fact that Detroit is starting to play a little better and the White Sox just got a big boost to the lineup.

Did the Sox trade for someone else? I'm just assuming you're not talking about the guy hitting .233 with .315 OBP and a 14/39 BB/K ratio, as I would hardly qualify that as a Big boost.

Originally Posted by Cap'n Piranha

Did the Sox trade for someone else? I'm just assuming you're not talking about the guy hitting .233 with .315 OBP and a 14/39 BB/K ratio, as I would hardly qualify that as a Big boost.

Yes, because players never end up trending back towards their career numbers. I will take a look at what Youk has done in his other 3500 at bats and assume that he might, just maybe start hitting better then his current .233/.315/.377 line.

Originally Posted by Cap'n Piranha

Did the Sox trade for someone else? I'm just assuming you're not talking about the guy hitting .233 with .315 OBP and a 14/39 BB/K ratio, as I would hardly qualify that as a Big boost.

I have a hard time believing Youk won't hit higher than that line for the rest of the season and if I'm not mistaken, that's still a huge improvement over what the Sox have been getting at third to this point.

Originally Posted by SpiritofVodkaDave

Yes, because players never end up trending back towards their career numbers. I will take a look at what Youk has done in his other 3500 at bats and assume that he might, just maybe start hitting better then his current .233/.315/.377 line.

Or we could assume that, at age 33, his physical skills are declining, and that decline is simply happening more precipitously than last year. His BB/k is sharply down, but has been declining for the past 2 years. His groundball rate is sharply up, which for a guy who doesn't run well is not a good thing. His HR/fly ball rate is also well down, suggesting a decline in power, again, not surprising for an aging player never really known for his powerWill he hit better? Maybe. But this is not the Kevin Youkilis that gets on base at a nearly .400 clip and hits for power. Will he be better than Orlando Hudson? Almost assuredly, but it's not like the Sox just added an All-Star.

Originally Posted by rocketpig

I have a hard time believing Youk won't hit higher than that line for the rest of the season and if I'm not mistaken, that's still a huge improvement over what the Sox have been getting at third to this point.

yes, the CHISOX 3B have been hitting worse than Nishioka-level production.

So anything Youkilis produces is better than what they've had.

Originally Posted by rocketpig

No Cuddyer = No Magic = No Late Season Run

Literally and figuratively.

Please do not drink the bong water.

When the Twins went on their little winning streak a few weeks ago, I did get kind of excited about the possibility that we'd get out of the cellar. The playoffs? Not a snowball's chance in hell. I want them to prove me wrong, but they won't.

A few things need to happen if the Twins are to make the playoffs

1. Some event will have to occur where all or most the team is exposed to gamma rays or some other kind of radioactive event, thus leading to at least half of the team developing super human strength and some baseball beneficial super powers. If this theoretically happens, I would imagine that a few of the players will perish because of their exposure to the nuclear happening and hopefully it would be less than more and we can get by with our lack of depth.

2. MLB decides not to add a Super Powers clause into the PED/Drug testing thingamajiggy until next season. If this is what MLB decides, maybe we will win a World Championship this year. The downfall is that the Twins Organization will have to start from ground zero next season player wise. We'll see what happens.

The chances for the Twins to make the "playoffs" are close to zip (unless they tie for the division or one of the wildcards and need a single playoff game; those are the only playoffs in baseball...)
But they still have some chances to make the post-season.

Pure math: They are 8 games behind the Sux and 5 behind Detroit (in the L column.) If they sweep the Sux they will be 5 games behind them. That's pretty close. But they got to make things happen and not sure that the field management has what it takes to make things happen, especially winning energy...