Thread: Trevor Plouffe comparable . . . ?

Originally Posted by Nick Nelson

A more recent comp would be Joe Crede, circa 2003-2006, with (significantly) less defensive value. Over those four seasons, before back problems ruined his career, Crede hit .260/.308/.454 and averaged 23 homers. He was 25 years old at the start of that window; Plouffe is 25 now.

Without the fantastic glovework, Plouffe will never be as valuable, but those kinds of numbers seem attainable and would make him a better player than anyone the Twins have trotted out at third in quite a while.

Also: what happens with Valencia? Plouffe seems like he's on the way to locking up the hot corner.

I think we'd all be pretty happy with that.

Its also worth remembering Plouffe was a good enough infielder to remain a SS until he got to the big leagues. Thinking he might eventually be a plus third baseman isn't unrealistic either. His problems defensively were largely related to throwing accuracy, which can sometimes be cured. You can't teach arm strength, you sometimes can teach mechanics and footwork.

I think that it is too early to determine what type of player Plouffe would be based on 508 MLB appearances (that's less than a full season's worth). One fun thing is that at this point, Plouffe has higher OPS+ (110 vs 107) and has hit more HRs (9 vs 7) than a former Twins' IF, turned OF, turned jack of all trades and master of none, turned Rockie...

Originally Posted by spideyo

Valencia = Trade Bait at best.

Trade repellent, more like.

Originally Posted by ashburyjohn

Trade repellent, more like.

Well done,

Originally Posted by USAFChief

I think we'd all be pretty happy with that.

Its also worth remembering Plouffe was a good enough infielder to remain a SS until he got to the big leagues. Thinking he might eventually be a plus third baseman isn't unrealistic either. His problems defensively were largely related to throwing accuracy, which can sometimes be cured. You can't teach arm strength, you sometimes can teach mechanics and footwork.

Exactly. I'd add that his throwing problems were probably mental rather than what appeared as mechanical. You don't spend your career at SS and suddenly forget how to throw. I'll further add that if the Twins make him available he would be attractive to a team that is looking for a SS solution.

Originally Posted by Paul

I'll further add that if the Twins make him available he would be attractive to a team that is looking for a SS solution.

A team that has World Series aspirations?

Originally Posted by Paul

Exactly. I'd add that his throwing problems were probably mental rather than what appeared as mechanical. You don't spend your career at SS and suddenly forget how to throw. I'll further add that if the Twins make him available he would be attractive to a team that is looking for a SS solution.

If Plouffe had a chance to stick at SS he'd be playing there for the Twins right now. NO way does a team look at his body of work and think, yeah... that's a guy I want to man the most defensively taxing position (besides catcher) for my playoff run. If someone wants him as a bench bat... or to fill a gaping hole in the outfield or 3rd base, they'll consider him...

I like Plouffe, but he's no short stop.

Also, he has more value as a player to hold onto than a player to move right now.

Originally Posted by Paul

Exactly. I'd add that his throwing problems were probably mental rather than what appeared as mechanical. You don't spend your career at SS and suddenly forget how to throw. I'll further add that if the Twins make him available he would be attractive to a team that is looking for a SS solution.

Mental or mechanical last year nothwithstanding, I can pretty much guaran-darn-tee you that no team that got a look at his body of work at SS last season would ever take a chance at this year's mid-season trading deadline to designate Plouffe as their starting SS. On the plus side, lots less mental pressure at 3B than SS, his throwing mechanics have been practically flawless since his insertion at the hot corner.

Originally Posted by spideyo

Valencia = Trade Bait at best.

I do think that unless Plouffe improves his defense and can maintain a good average all season long, he is not a long-term answer at 3b. Finding a lefty to share time with him isn't a bad idea, but platooning him with Mauer is just stupid. Plouffe has hit more home runs, but he simply cannot hit and field on the same level as Mauer. Not to mention the fact that you don't pay a guy 23m a year to only play half the time.

I don't think I proposed that Mauer play half the time. The Twins are well on the way to violating the "Not to Mention Fact" that you mentioned in your last sentence. Mauer has only played at catcher in about one-third of the last 36 games, he's already well under 50% at catcher on the season. You are right that 3B is still open in the intermediate and long-term, Plouffe is getting the chance of a lifetime right now to change the Twins' plans in his favor, but right now his L/R OPS split is .1063/.635, not good. Going into next season, and each season through 2018, an annual assessment of Mauer's health will dictate how much he can be counted on to catch, and right now the trend is not looking for more games at catcher, but less. I hope it isn't imminent, but it looks like the days of Mauer catching 120+ games is just about over. Which of course, necessitates a need to project another position for Mauer to play at least half the time (based on his current trend). If Mauer can catch primarily against left-handers and some right-handers (let's say 60-80 games), and DH and play 3B for another 80-100, the Twins would probably be in best position to maximize their $23 Mil/yr investment out to the end of the contract (2018). Morneau, with Parmelee to succeed him, are the current options at 1B, Mauer could easily end up there if they don't like what they see with Parmelee- and the Twins also need to extend Doumit to make this scenario become a possibility. This would also give the Twins a chance to focus on finding the long-term answer at 2B and/or SS.

I haven't been much of a Plouffe fan since not long after he was drafted. But at this point, the Twins have no better options and the guy is raking. Over at BYTO, I raised the question whether his career arc could be comped to a slightly younger version of Garrett Jones (the key difference being that Jones can actually hit righties, a more valuable commodity than hitting lefties). I'm still incredibly skeptical of Plouffe's ability to hit at an above-average level for a prolonged period of time but the Twins literally have nothing to lose by throwing him out there on a daily basis. Guys who can't hit righties don't make for very valuable players in the long run. If Plouffe is going to make it as a hitter, he's going to have to figure out how to hit RH pitchers at an acceptable level (which he is doing now but I doubt his current level of play is sustainable).

Rob Deer's 162 game average:

633 PA, 544 AB, 120 hits, 21 doubles, 2 triples, 32 homers, 81 BB, 198K, .220/.324/.442

Trevor Plouffe's:

577 PA, 519 AB, 118 hits, 29 doubles, 1 triple, 23 homers, 45 BB, 127K, .228/.293/.419

Once his current pace settles a bit, the above numbers are going to be more in line with what to expect with slightly better average and few walks.

PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BA OB SLG OPS

162

655

566

91

134

28

2

35

96

10

4

77

216

.237

.332

.478

.811

162

577

519

84

118

29

1

23

64

3

5

45

127

.228

.293

.419

.711

162

647

557

85

153

37

2

20

83

12

6

75

130

.275

.367

.458

.825

Mark Reynolds
Trevor Plouffe
Corey Koskie (just to throw in the recent Twins 3B paragon)

Analysis: Small sample size to project real 162 numbers, but Plouffe's career 162 projects to mirror the power number of Koskie (HR, RBI, SLG), while only projecting a BA and OB% like Mark Reynolds or Rob Deer. Not so good. Koskie was, well, good.... and we miss his production and defense dearly.

Originally Posted by shanewahl

Rob Deer's 162 game average:

633 PA, 544 AB, 120 hits, 21 doubles, 2 triples, 32 homers, 81 BB, 198K, .220/.324/.442

Trevor Plouffe's:

577 PA, 519 AB, 118 hits, 29 doubles, 1 triple, 23 homers, 45 BB, 127K, .228/.293/.419

Once his current pace settles a bit, the above numbers are going to be more in line with what to expect with slightly better average and few walks.

Rob Deer was a walk machine, averaging about .100 points higher OBP than AVG. That helped offset his atrocious BA and turned him from being below average to being slightly above average as a hitter.

Do you honestly expect Plouffe to do that? Trevor's OBP was roughly .060 points higher than his BA in the minors and it's a lot easier to draw a walk down there than it is in the majors.

Besides, using straight avg/2b/hr stat lines on guys who played 30 years apart is nearly useless. You should be looking more at adjusted lines than straight stats.

I watched Rob Deer growing up in Detroit. I just looked it up, and Deer hit .217 in Double-A and .227 in Triple-A in the two seasons before his callup. In other words, he was always that type of hitter. There were points in those seasons I remember he had more HR's than singles!

Plouffe was in Triple-A from 2008-11 and while his BA wasn't good (.262), neither were his strikeout rates so absurdly bad that he should be compared to guys like Deer, Reynolds, or Chris Davis. Plouffe also doesn't have the raw power of those guys. But I think he has bulked up, and the guy who mentioned Joe Crede above (Crede from the mid-2000's, not the year we had him) was dead on. Crede also did not strike out at an absurdly high rate. But I would absolutely take that type of hitter, given how little hope we had for Plouffe coming into the year.

Michael Cuddyer, but with more power and more defensive value.

That is to say, I think Plouffe will put up a better BA and OBP than many are giving him credit for.

Trevor plouffes best comp is that of brian buscher and brendan harris, he is like the best of both worlds.

Originally Posted by The Greatest Poster Alive

If Plouffe had a chance to stick at SS he'd be playing there for the Twins right now. NO way does a team look at his body of work and think, yeah... that's a guy I want to man the most defensively taxing position (besides catcher) for my playoff run. If someone wants him as a bench bat... or to fill a gaping hole in the outfield or 3rd base, they'll consider him...

I like Plouffe, but he's no short stop.

Also, he has more value as a player to hold onto than a player to move right now.

Yup, trading up and coming players with less than one year service time is typically not a good way to rebuild.

Originally Posted by SpiritofVodkaDave

Trevor plouffes best comp is that of brian buscher and brendan harris, he is like the best of both worlds.

That's Harrischer to you.

Originally Posted by SpiritofVodkaDave

Trevor plouffes best comp is that of brian buscher and brendan harris, he is like the best of both worlds.

If only Trevor could emulate the thoughtful - nay, gallant - 1,000 yard stare of one Mr. Brian James Buchanan.

Buchanan-Brian.jpg

Every time I see a picture of Buchanan, I expect the picture to yell "HODOR!" back at me.

Bonus points if Trevor could also run routes like Jason Tyner.

I've been thinking Rob Deer for awhile now. I thought I was the only one.