2013 Free Agent SPs
Since I am not of the mind that the Twins should trade Span for starting pitching prospects but should find one (JUST ONE!) top notch or next-to-top notch starting pitcher on the free agent market next year, I think it might be good to start looking at the 2013 SP market. Here are 10 names:
There are more, but it seems like these might be the best ten. Keep in mind that, in theory, the money saved by not resigning Pavano, Liriano, and Baker for next year could be close to enough to sign TWO of these guys.
I'll go into this on my own blog in due course, but for now, suffice it to say: Amen.
I would like to purchase:
Zach Greinke for 5 yrs/$ 87.5 million
Colby Lewis for 6 yrs/ $100 million
Anibal Sanchez 3 yrs/35 million
Cole Hamels 1 yr/ 10 million
Lets give Liriano another shot in 2013 as our 5th starter. See all we have to do is spend more money, how hard is that?
Here is what gets me with this... Arguably the best 2 of this list are Greinke and Hamels, correct?
Here are some career numbers:
Greinke: 1.260 WHIP, 8 K/9, 3.48 K/BB (last 2 seasons in the NL facing pitchers)
Hamels: 1.137 WHIP, 8.5 K/9, 3.81 K/BB (all his career in the NL facing pitchers)
and Greinke and Hamels (after today's admission) have been having "head" issues.
here is a comparison:
Baker: 1.264 WHIP, 7.2 K/9, 3.44 K/BB (all his career in the AL; which makes these numbers pretty close-equivalently to the other two's)
So these 2 SPs, which are the best free agents available are not much better than what Baker used to be for the Twins. So basically, the Twins are going to substitute the hurt Baker with a non-hurt Baker. A non-hurt Baker alone did not cut it for the Twins. So they need more than one of those guys in 2013 and trade is the way to get them. I suspect that they need 3 new pitchers.
I think the years (esp Hamels) and money is a bit low on each of those guys but I agree with all the money coming off, the Twins could buy one legit starting pitcher. Liriano is a FA so I don't think he'd take a one year deal from us (under the new CBA, we have to offer him 12.5m in arbitration to get a draft pick for him if he signed elsewhere, I believe). Cain's 6/127m deal is going to be the starting point for a lot of these guys. They won't all get it (although Hamels probably will). Sanchez would be intriguing. Grienke's price might be driven down by his struggles the last two seasons and his mental health history. But, yeah, I hope we sign at least one of these guys.
Originally Posted by Yoshii
Don't even think about any top-line free agents WANTING to sign here unless the team improves dramatically and looks to be a winner. Maybe throwing stupid money would help, ut bandering names is just dream talk.
Have to realistically look at how the team can see what they have this season, what they have in the minors and the need to push players, and who they can garner from other teams by dangling everyone from Doumit, Willingham, Capps, Liriano and even Morneau and Mauer.
NO ONE WANTS TO PLAY FOR THE TWINS RIGHT NOW!
Something bad has happened.
And keeping Liriano for another year...he ahs a say in the matter, too. Maybe if he feels arbitration is the only way to line his pocketbook, but the Twins may not want to risk what they have to pay to allow him to make that choice and hope for a high-level draft pick in return. Yes, at his current rate, Liriano will not get a great onbe-year or multi-year contract, but like Cuddyer (and David Ortiz with the Red Sox) the hometown team would pay plenty to keep the services.
Players want to play for a winner. They will take a ton of money if offered, but I don't EVER se the Twins offering a ton for what is just a temporary placement part in what has to now be a long-term strategy.
The Twins like Greinke. He's been on their radar a couple of times before, so if the Twins were a pitcher away, it wouldn't surprise me to see them go after him, especially with Baker probably done as a Twin.
But the Twins aren't one pitcher away, so I doubt they'll take the free agent route for starters in 2013.
Greinke's numbers are fairly comparable to Baker's, except for one important one - innings pitched.
I think with the money coming off of the books with the SP's that are going to be free agents, and, honestly, SP being our position of need this year, I could see the Twins going for one or two FA SP's, because they're bullpen isn't as bad as it was with Duensing, Perkins, Burton, Guerra (if he gets called up and continues the success he has had at AAA), and Capps (he has been improving and has done a fairly good job so far this year). Their outfield and infield are fairly set, so they really only need money to maybe resign Casilla on the infield if he keeps playing well and stays healthy. We also don't have to pay for Doumit or Marquis after this year, either.
Also, with how many FA relievers there are, the Twins could spend a million or three and sign several proven veterans.
Totally new idea. With some of the rest of this money, is there any chance the Twins use some of it to try and sign Mike Napoli as an insurance policy as a 1b/C doubler?
Given the PR hit after this year's payroll cut, the decreasing attendance this year, and with money coming off the books (Pavano, Baker, potentially Liriano, Marquis, Doumit, Capps, and hopefully Casilla), I find it a bit difficult to believe that the Twins won't pursue one of the above pretty seriously with serious money. If not, that is a huge two-year drop in payroll, especially if the much-desired "trade Span for prospects" move happens as well.
Hamels and Greinke are likely to get $100 million. Hamels makes $15M this year. Lewis might be a realistic option for the Twins... what if they wouldn't have finished second to the Rangers before the 2010 season?! He would have been a good get.
Yeah, Lewis and Blanton might be more likely options. Dempster probably would sign a two-year deal, so that could be good.
Originally Posted by Seth Stohs
Again next year, the Pohlad's will pocket a large chunk of the Money coming off the books. The Payroll will continue to drop.
This year, 30 million dollars came off the books. Only 3 million of that was invested in upgrading the pitching staff.
Yes, but at least one of the minor deals that they worked as been good so far, as Burton has established himself as an above-average RHRP.
I am assuming that the $3 million you are talking about was spent signing the bullpen guys, because I believe that Marquis got a 1 yr., $6 million deal, unless you are saying that the move only half upgraded the Twins staff :)
Haha, no, Marquis signed for $3 million. That is, a pitcher who is easily replaceable from within for $500k gets $3 million.
Unfortunately, due the Twins' current starting pitching "depth," he isn't easily replaceable.
Originally Posted by shanewahl
Liriano = 4.5 MM ? Marquis frees up 3 MM , Pavano frees up 8M , Baker 8/10 M option , Doumit - predicting he'll be re-signed or back.
so even being conservitive....we'll have at least about 14 Million to spend, if not 15/16 (-22 MM maximum) Milliion, if Baker is resigned for cheap lets say on a 1 yr deal.
then we could have close to 20 Million..... that would be perfect for 1 name, Cole Hamels.
Cole Hamels on a 3-4 yr deal.... at 18.5 Million per..... that'd ink him 57 million at 3 years and 76 Million on 4 yrs. problem is, somebody may likely outbid that, and how bad would a Hamels want to join the Twins? if its bad enough
think of Hamels, Baker, Gibson, Hendriks, Blackburn, Diamond next year in the 2013 rotation...... I think by 2014 or 2015.... (Hicks, Sano) The Twins could be back in contention with some SMART, shrewd moves for both the present and long term.
The Twins would never ever do anything like that (and for a good reason for the particular pitcher) and Hamels will get a 5 year deal some place else
Originally Posted by shs_59
I would say Tim Hudson if his option for 2013 is not picked up. Or bottom feed " the Twins way" I would say Erik Bedard as a value pick. Also, what about Brandon McCarthy? Not good enough for this list?
Come on people, you gotta think about your dreams and lower your expectations. No ace would sign here unless they were offered obscene money that would never happen in MN>
Originally Posted by Yoshii