Thread: Cafardo: Denard Span remains on Nationals' radar.

Originally Posted by shanewahl

gunnarthor, you are being a bit difficult here. I am not actually proposing a trade, I am indicating the kind of trade of some sort that might work. I regard Span more highly then you do, clearly. And I don't want to trade someone who seems to have no in-house replacement for someone who may be comparable to pitchers on the FA market in the offseason. I don't want to trade Span for a prospect. I want the Twins to figure out either A: a way to spend 10-15 million bucks on at least one great starting pitcher for multiple years or B: a way to trade multiple players/pitchers for one good-great starting pitcher.

I also find the common assumption that Span is the best trade chip to be in no way clearly true. Different teams have different needs and it always changes. Danny Valencia and prospects isn't something to totally scoff at.

I think Span is great - I want a Pence like deal for him. Where we disagree is the idea that we can give away a platter of our bad players and low prospects for a good/great starter from another team. The Twins aren't going to get anything with a centerpiece being a thirdbaseman who can't field and posts an 82 OPS+ over the last two seasons. To get the type of starters we want, we'll have to surrender something valuable back. Last year at the trade deadline, we held onto Cuddyer who was in demand. The Mets decided to trade their FA OF, Carlos Beltran, to the Giants for pitching prospect Zack Wheeler. The Twins should've been doing something like that. Instead, we hung onto him, lost 99 games and got the 32 and 83 (I think) pick in this draft for him instead. And spent 21m on his replacement.

The team is far away. They'll need to spend money in free agency this offseason but that won't be enough. They need to get young talent that can come up and build around a new nucleus of talent. Span can get us several additional young pieces to build around. If the best offer you get for him is Drew Storen, then you hang onto Span. But if you can get a Pence-like deal, go for it.

I completely agree with gunnarthor here. Too many people on this site seem to think that all the other GM's in the league are either stupid, gullible, or both. You can't in one breath say "Valencia sucks, we need someone better! And our high minor leagues suck, we need more talent!" And then in the next breath claim that we could package Valencia and our high minor leaguers to get something valuable. If those players aren't good enough for a team as bad as the Twins are right now, what makes you think that a team actually in contention would give up top-talent prospects in a trade for them? As I think some others have asked, would you take players like Valencia, et al, in return for a player like Span, or in return for a top ML-ready pitcher if we had one? No, you would laugh at any such trade proposal! And that's what any other GM in the league will do.

The Twins are not going to win this year, and probably not next year either. So yes, even though Span is one of our best players right now, he is exactly what we need to trade away. Another common complaint I see on here is that the Twins don't ever "trade high". And then again, on the other hand, I see people yelling and screaming when there's talk of trading players like Span. It doesn't make any sense to me! You can't have it both ways! As much as it sucks to see good players now get traded away, we don't have enough good players now to win. So we need to turn those good players now, into future good players by trading them for prospects.

As for the Nats situation, with Werth now breaking his wrist, they might be a little more willing to deal. No, we're not going to get Zimmerman (that's another problem with most people on this site, if they are willing to trade away good players like Span, they are completely unrealistic in what they expect to get in return). We MIGHT be able to get Gonzalez or Jackson. Hopefully the Twins don't trade for Storen or any closer as that's not our primary need and is such an unpredictable position.

Agreeing with gunnarthor means that you are disagreeing with me and then characterize my view as someone who thinks lowly about the Twins prospects mentioned. That is false. One or two high level prospects and two middle level prospects were mentioned. And gunnarthor also claims that I mean low prospects. That is false. Words being put into my mouth and that is annoying as hell.

Packaging serviceable major league guys with prospects for value in return is not that crazy. Giving away your only leadoff guy and one of your three best overall hitters at age 28 for some pitching prospect is crazy.

Originally Posted by shanewahl

Agreeing with gunnarthor means that you are disagreeing with me and then characterize my view as someone who thinks lowly about the Twins prospects mentioned. That is false. One or two high level prospects and two middle level prospects were mentioned. And gunnarthor also claims that I mean low prospects. That is false. Words being put into my mouth and that is annoying as hell.

Packaging serviceable major league guys with prospects for value in return is not that crazy. Giving away your only leadoff guy and one of your three best overall hitters at age 28 for some pitching prospect is crazy.

Look at recent real trades. Reds got Mat Latos and gave up Yonder Alonso (BA #33 prospect), Yasmani Grandal (BA #53 prospect), Brad Boxberger (Reds #10 prospect) and Edinson Volquez. Nats got Gio Gonzalez for AJ Cole (BA #57 prospect), Brad Peacock (BA #36 prospect), Derek Norris (former top 100 prospect, now A's #7) and Tommy Milone (now A's #10 prospect). So, the Twins don't have those type of deals to make to get a top flight pitcher. Instead, they should be the selling team and trading away Span for two top 50 prospects + two more team top 10 prospects. Span should get that kind of return.

Recent developments with the Nats, including diagnosing Werth with a broken hand, increase the probability of a Span trade there. Article here. Also mentioned in the same piece is that the Nats have lost their closer and back up closer this season. And are in contention for the NL East. Wonder what Span and Capps might bring back. The problem is that all of their MLB-ready SP talent (othen than maybe Dan Rosenbaum who is in AA) is in the majors already.

Fact is, Denard Span is the only player on the Twins roster that will bring back anything of worthwhile future value in what should now be the Twins rebuilding plan. As mentioned, people complain about the Twins "selling low". Well, this would go away from that.

However, it's laughable to me that Drew Storen's name is still cited as a target. 1. he's hurt, and 2. We don't need a freakin' closer.

Jordan Zimmerman is a great name to throw around. I don't think the Nats would move him, but they also do have Strasburg and Gio Gonazalez atop their rotation already. Maybe you try to go Anthony Rendon (Ryan Zimmerman is a Nats cornerstone at 3B) and a pitching prospect or 2 (Matt Purke, Alex Meyer, Sammy Solis). The Hunter Pence return is a great trade to compare too on what we might hope to get back.

Originally Posted by shanewahl

Agreeing with gunnarthor means that you are disagreeing with me and then characterize my view as someone who thinks lowly about the Twins prospects mentioned. That is false. One or two high level prospects and two middle level prospects were mentioned. And gunnarthor also claims that I mean low prospects. That is false. Words being put into my mouth and that is annoying as hell.

Packaging serviceable major league guys with prospects for value in return is not that crazy. Giving away your only leadoff guy and one of your three best overall hitters at age 28 for some pitching prospect is crazy.

I don't think the Twins are in any position to be trading "one or two high level prospects." They need to be getting high level prospects. Nobody likes the thought of dealing Span but the reality of the situation dictates that might be necessary. As said above, you can't package enough crap together to hide the fact you're dealing crap.

Originally Posted by USAFChief

I don't think the Twins are in any position to be trading "one or two high level prospects." They need to be getting high level prospects. Nobody likes the thought of dealing Span but the reality of the situation dictates that might be necessary. As said above, you can't package enough crap together to hide the fact you're dealing crap.

They can deal high level prospects as long as they are outfielders

Revere, Benson, Hicks, A. Morales, Arcia are blocking each other. Add maybe Sano and Rosario to the mix and you got a mess that you need to get out of.

Jayson Werth just broke his wrist - increasing the urgency for the Nats to find a replacement. Would not be surprised that the Twins get a call today. Agree that the Twins need a ransom for him, but it is time for Twins to be honest about the next couple of years. While Span could be a part of the future - the one area of relative strength in the system is outfield. Revere could be a transition centerfielder with the hope that Benson makes the final step soon. The Twins do have a history of developing centerfielders and have to believe they can do it again. Remember both Torii and Denard were far from sure things and struggled mightily at first when they made the transition to the bigs.

I think the Twins would be better looking at other teams than the Nats. Giants have Angel Pagan leading off and playing CF. Reds are in win-now mode but Stubbs has been a disappointment. Marlins have been using Emilio Bonificio in center and in the two spot. Phillies, still in win-now mode, have an OF with Juan Pierre and Shane Victorino. Myjer Morgan's been a disaster in Milwaukee (although they might be sellers, not buyers). Flower's been bad in CF for Colorado, who could use some more range in their OF. Rays are losing Upton after this year and would allow Zobrist to move to second. Etc, etc.

The point is, nearly every team that thinks it's in a race could use Span. Finding a good deal for him should be possible.

Originally Posted by kmerfi

...They already have Jayson Werth...

Well, not so much Werth anymore. Broken left wrist, same one he had troubles with in 2006. He's done for the year.

Still, Span is worth a lot more than a closer, which the Twins already have in Capps, who now has serious movement on his pitches. Twins also have Perkins. Why would they consider trading for someone else's injured closer?

How about Gio Gonzalez? See, there's nothing they have that they'll give away. If the Twins trade Span, it better be for at least a top starting pitcher prospect, like a Kyle Gibson with no arm problems.

Originally Posted by gunnarthor

I just posted this elsewhere but the Twins should get a Pence-like deal for Span (4 prospects, 2 top 50). I'm not sure the Nats have what we need (a lot of their best prospects are hurt and/or within a year of being drafted). I think we'd be better off looking elsewhere. A good CFer, LH, high on-base guy with a team friendly contract should be something nearly every team should want. I think teams like the Giants (Angel Pagan leading off in CF) or the Reds (Stubbs have been a bust) could really use Span since they both seem to be in win now modes.

Now that's more like it. Look for teams that collect good arms, like the Reds, Dodgers, Giants, Mets, Braves, etc. At least one of them could use a top-three lead-off hitter averaging over .300, great range in CF, good base runner, and a smart, consistent player.

Wait a minute. Why are we trading him again??

Nobody should think about selling anything until the last 10 days of July. Anybody within 5 games of a playoff spot at that time can reasonably consider themselves a buyer. The addition of the 2nd Wild Card in each league will greatly expand those ranks. Had that extra berth been available on July 21st last summer, there would have been 18 buyers, 8 sellers, and 4 teams on the bubble (the Twins, at 6 GB, were one of the bubble teams, unfortunately). That's a huge seller's market. Whatever the Twins might get for Span now, I bet they'll get more in a couple months when 5 or 6 teams are bidding on him.

Originally Posted by thrylos98

They can deal high level prospects as long as they are outfielders

Revere, Benson, Hicks, A. Morales, Arcia are blocking each other. Add maybe Sano and Rosario to the mix and you got a mess that you need to get out of.

Nobody on your list is blocking anyone. The Twins have one open OF spot even if you don't deal Span. Only 2 on your list have reached AAA and neither is a lock to be a major league starter. Half your list is in A ball and not all are even outfielders. The Twins should not be dealing minor leaguers that have a chance until they know what they have.

This thread is funny.

Guys loudly proclaiming that a rebuild involves (wait for it...) the rebuilding team trading their prospects (and strangely alluring replacement level MLB talent) for actual MLB talent... presumably to win 73 instead of 65 games while eviscerating their future?

GMs around the league chomping at the bit to get their hands on Valencia, Casilla, etc.... Sure.

When you've resigned yourself to what is going on, here is the deal: rebuidling teams don't trade prospects unless they get a silly return back. Do the Twins have a bunch of OF prospects? Sure. Do they know which ones, if any, are going to work out? Absolutely not. So unless you are offered absolute blue chippers back in an area of need (middle infield, starting pitching) there's no point to moving them. Certainly not to add a few wins onto lost seasons.

Span is reasonably priced and signed through 2015. This is the reason NOT to keep him. Sure, MAYBE everything falls into place and the Twins compete in 2015. If things get incredibly crazy, 2014. You are still looking at a minimum of two and very probably three utterly lost seasons paying him for no reason.

Meanwhile, the fact that he is reasonably priced through 2015 means other teams that are competitive now will pay A LOT more for him now than they will a similar guy at the deadline in his contract year or one year removed. His reasonable contract and talent are exactly why he SHOULD be moved. Pay some salary if it brings back more/better prospects.

If Willingham gets hot again: ditto. Rebuilds are ugly at the MLB level. You can't afford luxuries when you're trying to go from "guaranteed to suck now" to "good chance of not sucking in the medium future." Which is what a rebuild is.

Originally Posted by tobynotjason

This thread is funny.

Guys loudly proclaiming that a rebuild involves (wait for it...) the rebuilding team trading their prospects (and strangely alluring replacement level MLB talent) for actual MLB talent... presumably to win 73 instead of 65 games while eviscerating their future?

GMs around the league chomping at the bit to get their hands on Valencia, Casilla, etc.... Sure.

When you've resigned yourself to what is going on, here is the deal: rebuidling teams don't trade prospects unless they get a silly return back. Do the Twins have a bunch of OF prospects? Sure. Do they know which ones, if any, are going to work out? Absolutely not. So unless you are offered absolute blue chippers back in an area of need (middle infield, starting pitching) there's no point to moving them. Certainly not to add a few wins onto lost seasons.

Span is reasonably priced and signed through 2015. This is the reason NOT to keep him. Sure, MAYBE everything falls into place and the Twins compete in 2015. If things get incredibly crazy, 2014. You are still looking at a minimum of two and very probably three utterly lost seasons paying him for no reason.

Meanwhile, the fact that he is reasonably priced through 2015 means other teams that are competitive now will pay A LOT more for him now than they will a similar guy at the deadline in his contract year or one year removed. His reasonable contract and talent are exactly why he SHOULD be moved. Pay some salary if it brings back more/better prospects.

If Willingham gets hot again: ditto. Rebuilds are ugly at the MLB level. You can't afford luxuries when you're trying to go from "guaranteed to suck now" to "good chance of not sucking in the medium future." Which is what a rebuild is.

Great post Toby!!!

Last year and this year may seem like the nightmare scenerio.

Let's be clear... The Nightmare scenerio is hanging on to the very few pieces of valued tradeable talent and surrounding them by rentals and lolli gaggers.

This type of thinking will delay the return to respectability. Try to imagine the Pirates for the past decade. Get Young Quick. Don't trade prospects... Acquire them... We may have OF depth in the LOW Minors right now but we won't have actual OF depth until it performs at the MLB Level. Let's lose for a couple of years and make sure the scouts are focused and the direction of the draft is clearly defined and followed.

Originally Posted by tobynotjason

This thread is funny.

Guys loudly proclaiming that a rebuild involves (wait for it...) the rebuilding team trading their prospects (and strangely alluring replacement level MLB talent) for actual MLB talent... presumably to win 73 instead of 65 games while eviscerating their future?

GMs around the league chomping at the bit to get their hands on Valencia, Casilla, etc.... Sure.

When you've resigned yourself to what is going on, here is the deal: rebuidling teams don't trade prospects unless they get a silly return back. Do the Twins have a bunch of OF prospects? Sure. Do they know which ones, if any, are going to work out? Absolutely not. So unless you are offered absolute blue chippers back in an area of need (middle infield, starting pitching) there's no point to moving them. Certainly not to add a few wins onto lost seasons.

Span is reasonably priced and signed through 2015. This is the reason NOT to keep him. Sure, MAYBE everything falls into place and the Twins compete in 2015. If things get incredibly crazy, 2014. You are still looking at a minimum of two and very probably three utterly lost seasons paying him for no reason.

Meanwhile, the fact that he is reasonably priced through 2015 means other teams that are competitive now will pay A LOT more for him now than they will a similar guy at the deadline in his contract year or one year removed. His reasonable contract and talent are exactly why he SHOULD be moved. Pay some salary if it brings back more/better prospects.

If Willingham gets hot again: ditto. Rebuilds are ugly at the MLB level. You can't afford luxuries when you're trying to go from "guaranteed to suck now" to "good chance of not sucking in the medium future." Which is what a rebuild is.

A: Rebuilding through prospects alone (and Joe Mauer) is risky business. So,
B: One of the best rebuild-around veterans is the guy you would trade away for these prospects (pitching prospects, I would assume)
C: That veteran is not replaceable in any easy way with what is in-house already, both offensively and, apparently defensively given your question marks about the OF prospects in house.

So you would prefer to create a hole in the team that goes forward while adding pitching prospects.
I would rather not create that hole and add major league pitchers, rebuilding much through free agency, and yes, trying to trade players and prospects where there is depth (OF, middle relief). I never mentioned trading those players right now, but rather at the deadline. It is NOT impossible to imagine that players like Valencia, Casilla, Capps, and Doumit might be worth something to contending teams looking to add missing pieces.

OF prospect or under 25 depth (FYI):

Ben Revere, Joe Benson, Rene Tosoni, Aaron Hicks, Evan Bigley, Oswaldo Arcia, Angel Morales, Danny Rams, Lance Ray, Danny Ortiz, JD Williams, Nate Roberts, Drew Leachman, Max Kepler, Dereck Rodriguez . . .

And perhaps Miguel Sano, Eddie Rosario, and Niko Goodrum if they don't stick in the infield.

Originally Posted by jorgenswest

Span's WAR ranks him 13th among centerfielders this year. He would be a real upgrade to a few competing teams, but the Twins need to play hardball. He is an asset and will be an asset next year. They can replace his defense with Revere but not his lead off ability. Revere does not get on base enough. I don't see another lead off hitter in the system close to ready for next year. They also have him under a reasonable contract.

If you follow what Revere is doing at Rochester this year, you will see that he is working on the little things that will make him a great leadoff hitter. He is bunting and taking more walks with a lot of stolen bases. He hasn't gotten a lot of time in AAA until this year and is working hard to become a solid major league player. Let him stay there for another couple months, then bring him up.

You guys are missing the point......Span really isn't worth much to any other team. He is an average to above average CF with zero power and only average speed. Most teams have a guy like this and really Roger Bernadina isn't that much worse than Span....definitely not worse enough for the Nats to give up anything more than a PJ Walters type for him.

The Twins are in a SAD, SAD state because they have no tradeable talent and no prospects. Wake me up in 2025!