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Dozier - What Difference Does It Make?

by jorgenswest on 04-02-2013 at 01:19 PM
I tried to study the impact of the batting order change using ZIPS projections. I was a little disappointed in the results.

I used the average plate appearances by batting order position in the AL last year. The second spot had 103 more plate appearances on average than the 8th spot. That made sense as it is close to 6x18.

I then compared a Dozier with 735 plate appearances to a Dozier with 632 plate appearances. (Yes... I know he is not going to play 162 games and neither

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A Tale of Three Cities

by jorgenswest on 12-23-2012 at 09:59 AM
It will be interesting to watch three teams as they try to pull themselves out of the basement. The Twins, Cubs and and Astros all have set out different path towards success. They also represent the three very different markets and revenue streams.


The Cubs have purged salaries in trades and then are putting money back in for next year. They will probably not match last year's payroll, but they will spend the most of the three. They also have the most revenue. Will the additions

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Time to Drop the Numbers and Focus on WAR

by jorgenswest on 12-17-2012 at 10:11 PM
In the current era of baseball it doesn't make sense to quantify pitchers as #X starter. It used to be that #1 or #2 starters would get more starts because they would skip over guys at the back end of the rotation. I think Verlander and the Tigers are the only team that did that with any consistency.

Virtually all teams roll their starters so that all slots get about the same number of starts. Even when the opportunity at the all star break comes to skip some starts at the back end,

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Updated 12-17-2012 at 10:16 PM by jorgenswest

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Doumit, Molina and Pitch f/x

by jorgenswest on 11-30-2012 at 11:15 PM
"I don’t say this about many decisions, but starting Doumit at catcher might be a fireable offense. In 60 games at catcher for Pittsburgh in 2011, his framing cost the Pirates 20 runs. In 59 games for Minnesota in 2012, his framing cost the Twins 21 runs. All told, his framing has subtracted 98 runs over the past five seasons, on top of the damage from the other things he does poorly behind the plate, which wipes out his offensive value."

Ben Lindbergh, Baseball Prospectus

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Projecting the Twins: Early 2013 ZIPS

by jorgenswest on 11-11-2012 at 10:33 AM
The early ZIPS projections were reported midweek and the AL Central has sobering information for the Twins.

http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/hotst...teams-2013-mlb

Note: Unfortunately, you will need an insider account to access the link above.

The Twins in their construction are projected for 66 wins and 5th place in the AL Central. Entering the 2012 season they had a projected 70 win team from

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26 Likes

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  1. jorgenswest
    jorgenswest liked post by Seth Stohs On thread : Twins eager to bring Arcia back??
    Yes, because all I care about is what is best for Hicks' long-term development. Thomas is what he is. He's not as bad as he was with the Twins last year, and he's probably not as good as he is...
    Liked On: 05-26-2013, 02:16 PM
  2. jorgenswest
    jorgenswest liked blog comment by John Bonnes On : Starting Pitching and the Folly of the Pohlad Fortune
    First, I'll agree - the Twins are seriously hamstringing themselves if they don't learn to fill in gaps through the free agent market. But I'll veer off from the direction of the story in two...
    Liked On: 04-25-2013, 11:48 PM
  3. jorgenswest
    jorgenswest liked blog post by Thrylos On : The Twins minors' top 25 - 4/24/13
    Originally published at The Tenth Inning Stretch (http://tenthinningstretch.blogspot.com/2013/04/the-twins-minors-top-25-42413.html) ---- For a few years now, I have been doing a feature, pretty...
    Liked On: 04-24-2013, 08:47 PM
  4. jorgenswest
    jorgenswest liked article by Parker Hageman On : Joe Mauer and catcher framing
    3788Catcher framing is extremely popular in baseball research circles right now. Go over to Fangraphs.com or BaseballProspectus.com and you will find several studies and articles on the subject. It’s...
    Liked On: 04-17-2013, 10:15 PM
  5. jorgenswest
    jorgenswest liked article by Nick Nelson On : Patience Warranted With Struggling Youngsters
    3709For all the buzz he built up during spring training, it didn’t take long for Aaron Hicks to sour the widespread enthusiasm surrounding him. We’re barely over a week into the season and already...
    Liked On: 04-09-2013, 11:20 PM
  6. jorgenswest
    jorgenswest liked post by twinstalker On thread : I've forgotten the goal for teams playing MLB games
    Is it to participate? Are trophies given to every player who gets in a game? To full teams? I watch the Twins, and I have a real hard time figuring it out. Now, I was really tired this afternoon...
    Liked On: 04-06-2013, 03:36 PM
  7. jorgenswest
    jorgenswest liked post by Thrylos On thread : Escobar
    Allegedly Escobar has been working with Brunansky during the ST to shorten his swing and attack more the ball. I got to see him take BP in ST and during a few ST games and he was hitting decent...
    Liked On: 04-06-2013, 02:50 PM
  8. jorgenswest
    jorgenswest liked article by Seth Stohs On : Twins Minor League Report: Kernels Win Twins Debut
    Each night throughout the entire minor league season, Twins Daily will be writing up game notes and highlights from all of the Twins minor league affiliates. Thursday was Opening Day for the...
    Liked On: 04-05-2013, 10:51 AM
  9. jorgenswest
    jorgenswest liked article by Parker Hageman On : Glen Perkins and the modern pitcher
    3656Before the opener on Monday morning, Glen Perkins sat at his locker, lacing up a new pair of cleats. His locker’s location – one of four corner spots in the spacious clubhouse reserved for the...
    Liked On: 04-03-2013, 12:49 AM
  10. jorgenswest
    jorgenswest liked article by Christopher Fee On : Rochester Red Wings Season Preview
    3648In 2011, the Rochester Red Wings won four more games than the previous year, but that also meant they had ost 90+ games in two consecutive seasons, the first time that had happened since 1903 &...
    Liked On: 04-03-2013, 12:43 AM
  11. jorgenswest
    jorgenswest liked blog post by Brad Swanson On : My Opening Day Tradition
    I remember Sunday, April 5, 1992 very well. I was more than somewhat aware that the Twins' Opener was the next day. I had been a huge Twins fan since I was like four-years-old. By 1991, I was nine...
    Liked On: 03-30-2013, 10:54 AM
  12. jorgenswest
    jorgenswest liked blog post by spycake On : How important is it to delay service time?
    In the wake of Aaron Hicks being named the Twins starting centerfielder, many fans have expressed disappointment that the team did not send him to the minors to further delay his major league service...
    Liked On: 03-27-2013, 10:04 PM
  13. jorgenswest
    jorgenswest liked blog post by Thrylos On : Random Spring Training Thoughts: 3/26/2013
    Originally published at The Tenth Inning Stretch (http://tenthinningstretch.blogspot.com/2013/03/random-spring-training-thoughts-3262013.html) --- I arrived North a tad too late from Fort Myers...
    Liked On: 03-26-2013, 09:15 PM
  14. jorgenswest
    jorgenswest liked post by 10PagesOfClearBlueSky On thread : Baker miss first half
    You better be careful, jorgenswest, because for all the talk about letting things go at the wild wild west that was an old message board, some people are tattling to the authorities now. Just...
    Liked On: 03-24-2013, 11:50 PM
  15. jorgenswest
    jorgenswest liked blog post by Thrylos On : Random Spring Training Thoughts from Fort Myers: 3/24/2013
    Originally published at The Tenth Inning Stretch (http://tenthinningstretch.blogspot.com/2013/03/random-spring-training-thoughts-from_24.html) --- Today the Twins beat the Toronto Blue Jays 14-5 at...
    Liked On: 03-24-2013, 08:23 PM
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