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Aledmys Diaz

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#1 darin617

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Posted 09 March 2014 - 03:33 PM

Aledmys Diaz signed a 4 year deal with the St Louis Cardinals today. Sounds like it was supposed to be under $20M for the 4 years. I am kind of happy the Twins didn't make such an offer since he really doesn't sound like a game changing shortstop. Should hit for average but not much power and isn't a strong defensive shortstop, so I am not sure how he could get such a payday out of the Cards who don't seem to have a spot for him to play.

#2 TheLeviathan

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Posted 09 March 2014 - 04:04 PM

I think it speaks well of him that St. Louis was interested and 20M isn't a backbreaking gamble. It'll be interesting to see how this plays out.

#3 Thrylos

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Posted 09 March 2014 - 04:19 PM

To put things into perspective with the dollar figures:

The Twins paid $5M + $9M for 3 years ($14M/3yrs) for Nishioka. What the Cardinals did is in the ballpark
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#4 jokin

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Posted 09 March 2014 - 04:41 PM

To put things into perspective with the dollar figures:

The Twins paid $5M + $9M for 3 years ($14M/3yrs) for Nishioka. What the Cardinals did is in the ballpark


Based on the fact that it's the Cardinals, with 6 or 7 other teams hot on his trail with offers, I'll take a wild guess and surmise that Diaz will work out much better than Nishioka did.

Folks, this is how you put together REAL "crazy" depth at key positions.

#5 kab21

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Posted 09 March 2014 - 06:18 PM

If he was a game changing shortstop then he would have gotten triple+ what he got. This isn't a bad deal and he could outperform this.

What it comes down to is how much are you willing to pay for a prospect? I would value his prospect value and ETA roughly similar to Eddie Rosario with a better chance at being a SS and a little less bat. Would you feel comfortable giving a prospect like Eddie Rosario 20M guaranteed to add him to the org?

In the past you could acquire extra talent in the draft or in int'l FA but most of those loopholes were closed in the last CBA and guys like Diaz are one of the only forms of prospects that can be added that only cost money.

#6 PseudoSABR

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Posted 09 March 2014 - 09:34 PM

I'll take a wild guess and surmise that Diaz will work out much better than Nishioka did.

Way to go out on a limb.

It doesn't sound like his defense plays at SS, and he's got little pop so the Rosario comparison seems convenient at best.

#7 kab21

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Posted 09 March 2014 - 09:46 PM

Way to go out on a limb.

It doesn't sound like his defense plays at SS, and he's got little pop so the Rosario comparison seems convenient at best.


The Rosario comp is not meant to be a player comp but rather valuation comp. Diaz is a bottom half of a top 100 prospect type in my book. Is that worth 20M guaranteed since you don't have to give up any other assets?

It will be interesting to see where he gets ranked next offseason (if he doesn't play much for the Cards) after a season of likely AAA ball and some time in the majors.

#8 PseudoSABR

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Posted 09 March 2014 - 11:39 PM

I just think the notion that Diaz is a bottom half top 100 is a shot in the dark. I don't think there's legitimate data to base that on. The Cuban infielders who signed for more didn't even crack the top 100s. BA rated Guerrero in the top 150 IIRC, whose bat projects far better, and looks to field the same position.

St. Louis could be paying for Nick Punto, which actually has value, just not for the Twins.

#9 TheLeviathan

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Posted 10 March 2014 - 05:19 AM

I just think the notion that Diaz is a bottom half top 100 is a shot in the dark. I don't think there's legitimate data to base that on. The Cuban infielders who signed for more didn't even crack the top 100s. BA rated Guerrero in the top 150 IIRC, whose bat projects far better, and looks to field the same position.

St. Louis could be paying for Nick Punto, which actually has value, just not for the Twins.


The comp still works because plenty of 50-100 ranked prospects could turn into Puntos.

#10 kab21

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Posted 10 March 2014 - 08:41 AM

Same difference. The bottom half of the top 100 and the next 50 prospects aren't considerably different. The main point is that he is a decent prospect but he's not a great prospect and he got a substantial guaranteed sum. I think it's foolish to drop 20+M guaranteed on fringy top 100 prospect when a proven player as good as Ervin Santana could probably be had for 40ish M.

#11 JB_Iowa

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Posted 10 March 2014 - 10:11 AM


#12 mike wants wins

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Posted 10 March 2014 - 10:14 AM

If you are sitting a pile of money and you'll "do everything it takes to add talent", how would you not sign this guy for that price? I'm sure that money will get used someday though.
Lighten up Francis....

#13 mike wants wins

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Posted 10 March 2014 - 10:15 AM

Heck, they gave up a proven MLB player for Worley and May.....this would be 100x better as an investment.
Lighten up Francis....

#14 TheLeviathan

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Posted 10 March 2014 - 10:17 AM

Wow. This might be a sign that his workouts were thoroughly unimpressive. Even still, that's a cheap gamble.

#15 jokin

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Posted 10 March 2014 - 10:28 AM

I just think the notion that Diaz is a bottom half top 100 is a shot in the dark. I don't think there's legitimate data to base that on. The Cuban infielders who signed for more didn't even crack the top 100s. BA rated Guerrero in the top 150 IIRC, whose bat projects far better, and looks to field the same position.

St. Louis could be paying for Nick Punto, which actually has value, just not for the Twins.


The legitimate data is the fact that 6-7 teams reportedly made actual offers. (By contrast, the Twins were essentially competing with no one for Nishioka). And the fact that the Cardinals guard their last nickels pretty closely. If this was a bidding war worth winning, the Cards provide legitimate data and history as an organization that recognizes and unlocks potential major league talent. And for pre-emptively building potential quality depth at key positions. The cost involved is literally pocket change in MLB terms, without giving up a prospect or hamstringing the team financially, seems well worth the risk entailed in the very modest investment- a 23-year old with a Nick Punto floor- who is major league ready- is pretty enticing when you compare the alternatives currently in the Twins organization.

Edited by jokin, 10 March 2014 - 10:31 AM.


#16 biggentleben

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Posted 10 March 2014 - 10:47 AM

Wow. This might be a sign that his workouts were thoroughly unimpressive. Even still, that's a cheap gamble.


Not to mention an organization that can absolutely maximize that gamble. My thought when I heard Cardinals was that the reports about his lack of true SS ability was probably true, but that he likely showed enough to play some at 2B/SS/3B with a worthwhile bat, a profile that the Cardinals absolutely love.
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#17 jokin

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Posted 10 March 2014 - 10:52 AM

Wow. This might be a sign that his workouts were thoroughly unimpressive. Even still, that's a cheap gamble.


The quality of reporting regarding the $number leaves a lot to be desired. I believe it was reported last year that the Twins felt that his price was out of their reach. This is a head-scratcher, especially with this report I've quoted below about his workout with the Cards. Imagine a team having the #33 ranked prospect starting at 2B (Kolten Wong) and signing a big-name FA at SS, re-upping their 3B, AND STILL willing to go out and get Diaz, regardless.

The same writer who reported on the salary terms makes it sound like Diaz has game-changing potential and that the Cards are constantly looking to build depth, and then they spent an enormous amount of time and effort at understanding the Cuban game and what Diaz potentially has to offer:

"Diaz has a lively bat, and scouts have said he could play shortstop, second base or third base with the potential to be a standout righthanded hitter. The Cardinals worked him out at shortstop last month.


Diaz offers the Cardinals potential depth behind Peralta and perhaps another challenger at second base to rookie Kolten Wong.


“We believe this is someone who could help us in the future,” Matheny said.


Diaz held a workout for several teams in Arizona last month. A scout who attended remarked that Diaz, who had the long layoff from game play, faced live pitching in the workout to show his timing hadn’t faltered. He held a private workout for several teams, including the New York Yankees, in February and, according to MLB.com, with the Cubs last week.


Matheny said he was impressed with Diaz’s polish in the private workout.
“He’s had a lot of repetitions in this game,” Matheny said. “You could tell. He’s not just one of the raw talents. He’s a guy who has been well-taught. This kid looks like he understands the game.”
Matheny described with a scout’s eye what Diaz showed: clean fielding, different arm slot but good power on his throws, and “the ball jumped off his bat.”

He added that Diaz’s walk and mannerisms were similar to Yankee captain Derek Jeter’s."

Edited by jokin, 10 March 2014 - 10:55 AM.


#18 Winston Smith

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Posted 10 March 2014 - 12:04 PM

St Louis doesn't make a lot of mistakes and I would trust them over the Twins front office and most bloggers. Likely to turn out being a good signing.
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#19 Thrylos

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Posted 10 March 2014 - 12:31 PM

Heck, they gave up a proven MLB player for Worley and May.....this would be 100x better as an investment.


I love Revere, don't get me wrong. I think he has great energy and potentially game changing speed. But his career slash line with the Twins was: .278/.319/.323. A .644 OPS does not "a proven MLB player" make.

Point of Reference: Punto's career slash line with the Twins: .248/.323/.324; .648 OPS. Similarly good defense. Eerily similar overall. If the Twins were to trade Punto for May and Worley, before he became a free agent, how would you feel?

(*) Revere has upside. My point was on the "proven" part. He is as proven as Punto.
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#20 cmathewson

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Posted 10 March 2014 - 12:39 PM

According to reports, he projects as a utility guy. No big loss.
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#21 biggentleben

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Posted 10 March 2014 - 12:55 PM

According to reports, he projects as a utility guy. No big loss.


Completely depends on the report you read. One of the reports that was given to a Baseball Prospectus reporter was that he had a power arm, solid bat, and could play around the infield. I think that last part was interpreted as utility player in a lot of circles, but many have said that he simply has the arm to move to 3rd and the reactions to stick at 2B if he can't play SS, not that he can't play any of them at a starting caliber level.
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#22 jokin

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Posted 10 March 2014 - 01:39 PM

According to reports, he projects as a utility guy. No big loss.



From the reports I've read, you'd have a "utility guy" that has the ball jump off his bat with a power arm who is well beyond the raw stage concerning the skillset for his major league readiness. The only question is whether or not he can stick at SS.

As far as "loss" is concerned, nothing ventured, nothing gained. It would have cost very little to find out if he was the answer at SS or not, plus the Twins had the upper hand over the Cardinals in guaranteeing Diaz a faster path to a major league starting lineup.

#23 jokin

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Posted 10 March 2014 - 01:41 PM

Completely depends on the report you read. One of the reports that was given to a Baseball Prospectus reporter was that he had a power arm, solid bat, and could play around the infield. I think that last part was interpreted as utility player in a lot of circles, but many have said that he simply has the arm to move to 3rd and the reactions to stick at 2B if he can't play SS, not that he can't play any of them at a starting caliber level.


Bingo. Some are too easily dismissive of an organization with a shrewd eye for talent.

#24 mike wants wins

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Posted 10 March 2014 - 01:50 PM

As a 24 year old, Revere put up 3 WAR. Cherry picking his stats to ignore defense doesn't help much. the year before, he put up 1.7 WAR.

He was young, cost controlled, and can really play defense. Not sure what more you want a 23 and 24 year old to do to "prove" he's a MLB player. He also had value.

Whatever, we are off topic. Spending money to acquire prospects is what we are constantly told this team will do. that they aren't cheap anymore. Well, the WS signed a DH that might outhit every Twin not named Mauer this year, and the Cards just signed this guy, and several other Cubans have been signed this year. I'm still waiting for the Twins to spend their money to add prospects when they have the chance.
Lighten up Francis....

#25 Boom Boom

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Posted 10 March 2014 - 02:01 PM

Maybe this guy isn't all he's cracked up to be. It does make me wonder why the Twins have been so behind on acquiring talent from Cuba. Have they ever signed a Cuban amateur free agent?

#26 biggentleben

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Posted 10 March 2014 - 02:09 PM

Maybe this guy isn't all he's cracked up to be. It does make me wonder why the Twins have been so behind on acquiring talent from Cuba. Have they ever signed a Cuban amateur free agent?


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#27 Boom Boom

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Posted 10 March 2014 - 02:20 PM

Tony Oliva.


I applaud your accuracy.

Anyone in the last fifty years?

#28 savvyspy

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Posted 10 March 2014 - 02:56 PM

St Louis doesn't make a lot of mistakes and I would trust them over the Twins front office and most bloggers. Likely to turn out being a good signing.


Exactly!!! The Cardinals are FAR SUPERIOR to the Twins on all fronts. The bottom line is the Cards understand roster management and are in it to win a championship. The Twins don't do anything better than other teams except trying to maximize the amount of money that is left in the Pohlad's bank account.

I trust St Louis's assessment of Diaz's talent. Most of what I hear from the Twins seems like excuses rather than valid assessment of talent. Every player has flaws, especially when they are young. If your front office philosophy is only signing flawless prospects and minimizing spending you are going to have to get very lucky to be successful.

#29 howieramone1406390264

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Posted 10 March 2014 - 04:28 PM

Exactly!!! The Cardinals are FAR SUPERIOR to the Twins on all fronts. The bottom line is the Cards understand roster management and are in it to win a championship. The Twins don't do anything better than other teams except trying to maximize the amount of money that is left in the Pohlad's bank account.

I trust St Louis's assessment of Diaz's talent. Most of what I hear from the Twins seems like excuses rather than valid assessment of talent. Every player has flaws, especially when they are young. If your front office philosophy is only signing flawless prospects and minimizing spending you are going to have to get very lucky to be successful.


So true. No way they will every have the top rated farm system in baseball.

#30 birdwatcher

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Posted 10 March 2014 - 05:03 PM

I gotta laugh. Here we go again. Someone signs with another team, and out come the ridiculous generalizations about how the Twins don't spend money to acquire prospects. And how so many other teams take financial risks to snatch up the premier talent while we sit on our hands and Jim Pohlad lines his pockets.

It's such total nonsense, my friends. Who signed Sano, the consensus top prospect in his signing year? What about paying Kepler a record amount for a European kid? Who else was there when Thorpe signed for a half-mill? Another half-mill on Barrie last week. Lewin Diaz was a top ten international prospect when we signed him. The year before, it was #7 ranked Amaurys Minier and #22 Silva. They've been investing heavily internationally and we're going to see the dividends: Arcia, Sano, Pinto, Santana,Vargas, Kepler, Polanco, Jorge, Thorpe, Romero, Minier, Barrie.....these prospects are a big part of why the smart guys out there are effusive about our farm system.

So yeah, we can complain about this guy as a missed opportunity, but let's put to bed this silliness that the Twins just won't spend money to land good prospects.

Edited by birdwatcher, 10 March 2014 - 05:05 PM.