Posted 20 February 2014 - 09:22 PM
I don't think this draft will produce 4 #1 college pitchers and no college bat is exciting enough to take that early. So the Twins best case is getting the top HS arm (again). But the HS season will certainly change some perceptions.
Posted 20 February 2014 - 09:53 PM
This far out, I'm definitely still thinking more about who I want to be the logical pick for us rather than who will be the logical pick for us. It feels too early for me to wrap my head around these players' actual abilities.
Edited by Wookiee of the Year, 20 February 2014 - 10:34 PM.
Posted 20 February 2014 - 11:42 PM
Posted 21 February 2014 - 07:01 AM
That said, I have to think at 5 the Twins will want highest upside. I'd look at Gatewood or Kolek personally unless by some miracle Hoffman or Rodon fall. Got to say that Turner doesn't excite me unless he suddenly shows the ability to hit for some power.
Posted 21 February 2014 - 08:08 AM
Posted 21 February 2014 - 08:40 AM
The Levi Michael comparison will probably keep coming up as long as there is speculation about the Twins drafting Turner. I think it's worth noting that Michael was something like the 30th pick in his draft. If Turner has a reasonable case as BPA at the 5th pick in 2014 (and if he doesn't, I can't see the Twins reaching down for him with that high a pick), then he's in a different class than Michael and can be considered a surer thing.
I think the Turner/Michael comps will come. Here are their college stats. The glaring difference is speed. Turner is an 80 speed guy. His freshman SB total is probably a better reflection given he had an ankle issue last year. He is 5-5 in SB attempts this year in just 4 games.
Regardig his defense, I read Turner should stay at SS, has the footwork, range, and arm.
Freshman - .338 average, 5 HR, .891 OPS, 57 SB
Sophomore - .368 average, 7 HR, 1.008 OPS, 30 SB
Freshman - .290 avg, 13 HR, .909 OPS, 5 SB
Sophomore - .346 avg, 9 HR, 1.059 OPS, 20 SB
Junior - .305 avg, 4 HR, .911 OPS, 14 SB
I would be very happy with Turner or one of the flamethrowing guys like Kolek or Hoffman.
Posted 21 February 2014 - 09:07 AM
Posted 21 February 2014 - 09:22 AM
Posted 21 February 2014 - 09:55 AM
Would you be gun-shy about making the same mistake that was made when Levi Michael was drafted? Would you trust that same signing scout? Interesting questions to consider, obviously, and while I think they are two completely different players, the microscope will be fixed closer on Trae Turner.
I wouldn't worry at all about the scout. I woudln't have any thoughts about Michael with this pick. It's very silly to do so. However, the scouting reports, as I read them, for Michael reminded me of Nick Punto. At #30, that's not so bad... At #5 overall, that is not the scouting report I would want to read. I'm with those who say Kolek is the direction... At least that type of player where there is a ton of upside!
Posted 21 February 2014 - 09:59 AM
If Turner is in the discussion as one of the 10 best players, that is a very different conversation than was occurring with Michael. It's just not a realistic comparison, imo. I'd be happy for him to be great this year. It means they either get him, or a pitcher falls because someone else took him. Win. Win.
Agreed on the comp, Turner looks much more promising.
Posted 21 February 2014 - 10:17 AM
If Jackson can stick at catcher with a plus bat, he'd be a nice fit for the system and with Pinto looking like a MLB-quality player the team could give him time to really learn the position and develop his bat. Love to know more about him and whether or not people think he's the real deal.
Turner doesn't look like a Levi Michael type to me and SS is a position where you can never have too many prospects. I like the speed and if the bat is legit he could do really well.
Posted 21 February 2014 - 10:55 AM
Luke Weaver is definitely the most surprising name on the list, but was ranked 5th by Big League Futures back in September, so he hasn't gone completely without notice. He reportedly hit 97 over the summer (I don't remember where that was reported but it was reputable), though most reports have had him as a low 90s fastball guy. If that bumps into the mid 90s with plus command I can see him being ranked that high.
Posted 21 February 2014 - 11:20 AM
I'm interested in both Jackson & Turner.
If Jackson can stick at catcher with a plus bat, he'd be a nice fit for the system and with Pinto looking like a MLB-quality player the team could give him time to really learn the position and develop his bat..
I think it was Keith Law that said Jackson wants to move out from catcher.
Posted 21 February 2014 - 11:48 AM
"Of the current top 15 Draft prospects, who can make the biggest jump based on what they show this year?
-- Tory J., Tampa, Fla.
Gainesville (Ga.) High School outfielder Michael Gettys immediately jumps to mind. For the third straight year, the most electric high school talent is a prep outfielder from the Peach State, with Gettys following Buxton (2012), Frazier and Meadows (2013).
Gettys posted some eye-popping numbers at the Perfect Game National Showcase last June, running the 60-yard dash in 6.43 seconds, uncorking a throw clocked at 100 mph from the outfield and working at 91-94 mph off the mound. If he were solely a pitcher, he'd be an early-round prospect, but he'll get drafted as an outfielder.
The big question is how much Gettys will hit. He has a lot of bat speed and raw power, but he swings and misses more than he should and has struggled against quality breaking pitches.
We rated Gettys as the 10th-best Draft prospect coming into the year. If he were to somehow answer all of the questions about his bat, he'd go near the very top of the Draft and likely would be the first high school player drafted."
Big, toolsy OF from GA. Seems like a Twins type.
Posted 21 February 2014 - 12:24 PM
My heart says high upside HS kid right now, but my brain is hoping for the BPA to be an easy sign college guy.
Also, while Hoffman has the profile similar to Jonathan Gray, I think his path appears more like Sean Manaea. Gray didn't move up the rankings until later in the spring, it was Manaea who got the huge boost from the Cape Cod League. I'd think this year's Gray is a lower ranked guy right now. My preseason pick was Michael Cederoth though he didn't fare too well in his first start.
Posted 21 February 2014 - 12:28 PM
Posted 21 February 2014 - 02:10 PM
I would imagine he has good range and enough arm to get the "likely to stick at SS" label but I'd rather hear "projects as a plus defender".
It seems like every draft candidate or prospect in the minors gets overrated defensively (some more than others), and their defensive ability (if they do have it) can deteriorate quickly. As just one example, are some of the defensive quote about Arcia from Baseball Prospectus over the past few years:
He's a good athlete for his size and has good outfield instincts.
He's not special in the outfield, but hardly a liability
arm is at least solid-average; will play in right field. Good athlete for his size, but lacks average run; limited to a corner spot
Based on my observations (and backed by some of the defensive metrics), it turns out that Arcia was one of the worst defensive outfielders in all of baseball last season. Also, consider the players that the Twins selected to play shortstop over the past few years - Dozier, Plouffe, Nishioka. It became very apparent very quickly that they were unable to handle the position.
Long story short, I drop every prospect at least a step from the scouting reports. Shortstop projected to be average? Then I think he is probably terrible and not really a shortstop. Plus centerfielder? Hopefully will be average in the majors. For me, the kiss of death for a prospect defensively is "he should be able to handle/stick at the position."
Regarding Turner defensively, I'm starting to think of Billy Hamilton. Hamilton also started off as a shortstop, but despite world-class speed, has had to move to the outfield. If there are any doubts about Turner staying at shortstop, that is a huge red flag for me.
Posted 21 February 2014 - 02:32 PM
He's one of the most all-around athletic players in the draft.
Posted 21 February 2014 - 02:42 PM
The Turner-Michael comp is unfair but I'm not terribly impressed with what I've read about Turner so far. "He's really fast and will likely stick at SS" is just about all I've heard on him. Having wheels is great but it's often the tool that first abandons a player. There is also a big difference between sticking at SS and being a plus defender at the position. I'm not saying Trea won't be good defensively. I would imagine he has good range and enough arm to get the "likely to stick at SS" label but I'd rather hear "projects as a plus defender". I also haven't heard much about his hit tool. If Turner projects as an above-average defender with a decent shot at .270/.350/.375, I'd gladly take it. My uninformed opinion has me in the Kolek camp right now, though.
I agree that if Turner is just average defensively or is not a lock to stick at SS, you want to take a SP with 98+ gas.
Posted 21 February 2014 - 06:37 PM
No to Turner. Not a fan of players who's best tool is speed.
I'm hoping Kolek will be there as he seems like the high upside arm that the Twins could use.
His best tool being speed doesn't bother me, after all most would say that's Buxton's best tool.
My problem is that it's questionable he has other tools. Even if his defense was superb it's not enough for me. They need to have 4-5 tools at the #5 pick because too often one or two of the tools just aren't as great as advertised. If you only have two tools (OK three, but arm strength really goes with defense, no one is considered a great defensive player if their arm stinks) you have to hit on both tools. Elvis Andrus is a speedy defensive guy, but he's not a great hitter and has no power. Had his defense or speed not developed, he'd be a bust, there's just no margin of error with guys with only one or two strong tools and nothing else.
Posted 21 February 2014 - 06:49 PM