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#1 ppearson50

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Posted 29 January 2014 - 08:12 AM

I know this has been beat to death in here but I really cannot believe it if the Twins don't make a real play for Stephen Drew in the next couple of days. Now, I read where the Mets and Yankees are out on him. The Twins have a glaring hole at shortstop and Drew has no team and his dollar demands have to be dropping. How is Drew to the Twins not happening?

#2 Gernzy

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Posted 29 January 2014 - 08:27 AM

If the price is right the Twins might look at him. If it wasn't for the draft pick, he might already be a Twin.
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#3 dakotanative

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Posted 29 January 2014 - 11:08 AM

If the price is right the Twins might look at him. If it wasn't for the draft pick, he might already be a Twin.


GeeWiz, let me think for the price of a 2nd round pick who has maybe a 15% chance of being on a major league bench I can sign a fairly young, highly experienced shortstop who is going into his prime. What is the holdup? Is Boris asking for too much?

#4 diehardtwinsfan

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Posted 29 January 2014 - 03:33 PM

GeeWiz, let me think for the price of a 2nd round pick who has maybe a 15% chance of being on a major league bench I can sign a fairly young, highly experienced shortstop who is going into his prime. What is the holdup? Is Boris asking for too much?


Keep in mind it's a deep draft... there will be more than 30 guys getting a first round grade this year... but I do get your point. I suspect the price is definitely a part of the deal. That and the health and character issues. I think most people would take Drew for the right price. I for one would, but Drew is not a sure thing... He should have thought about that when he turned down that qualifying offer.

#5 cmb0252

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Posted 29 January 2014 - 04:25 PM

Prospects that have been drafted between 40-50, area we will be drafting in, in the past 4 years who have made it to top 100 lists:
2012: Lance McCullers Jr, Pierce Johnson, Eddie Butler, Jesse Winker
2011: Jackie Bradley Jr, Michael Fulmer, Trevor Storey, Kyle Crick
2010: Tiajuan Walker, Nick Castellanos, Mike Olt, Tyrrell Jenkins
2009: Tyler Skaggs, Christopher Owings, Tanner Scheppers

I have no problem giving up a 2nd round pick for the right player but acting like it isn't worth much is ridiculous.

#6 cmathewson

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Posted 29 January 2014 - 05:02 PM

Prospects that have been drafted between 40-50, area we will be drafting in, in the past 4 years who have made it to top 100 lists:
2012: Lance McCullers Jr, Pierce Johnson, Eddie Butler, Jesse Winker
2011: Jackie Bradley Jr, Michael Fulmer, Trevor Storey, Kyle Crick
2010: Tiajuan Walker, Nick Castellanos, Mike Olt, Tyrrell Jenkins
2009: Tyler Skaggs, Christopher Owings, Tanner Scheppers

I have no problem giving up a 2nd round pick for the right player but acting like it isn't worth much is ridiculous.


Also, the argument that the Twins have had a poor record with second round picks doesn't work. Until recently, a second round pick was in the low 100s, with he long sandwich round and the Twins picking in the high 20s. Since the new structure, the Twins have drafted these guys in the 30s and 40s: Jose Berrios; Ryan Eades. Berrios is a top 100 prospect. Eades could become one when his arm recovers from Friday night college duty.

Yeah, Drew is an upgrade over Florimon, all things considered. But not as big an upgrade as some people think, when you factor in defense. And it is an open question whether he will continue to be an upgrade over Santana in a year or two. You could sign him to a two-year deal. But is it worth giving up a draft pick in the 30s for a two-year rental? It's a push, at best. I don't care about the dollars. It's not my money. Will he make the team better in the short and long run, all things considered? Again, a push at best.
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#7 jokin

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Posted 29 January 2014 - 06:31 PM

Also, the argument that the Twins have had a poor record with second round picks doesn't work. Until recently, a second round pick was in the low 100s, with he long sandwich round and the Twins picking in the high 20s. Since the new structure, the Twins have drafted these guys in the 30s and 40s: Jose Berrios; Ryan Eades. Berrios is a top 100 prospect. Eades could become one when his arm recovers from Friday night college duty.

Yeah, Drew is an upgrade over Florimon, all things considered. But not as big an upgrade as some people think, when you factor in defense. And it is an open question whether he will continue to be an upgrade over Santana in a year or two. You could sign him to a two-year deal.

But is it worth giving up a draft pick in the 30s for a two-year rental? It's a push, at best.


I don't care about the dollars. It's not my money. Will he make the team better in the short and long run, all things considered? Again, a push at best.


Perhaps I'm missing something here. The Twins 2nd rd. pick is currently #45 for 2014. Isn't it likely going to be around that level in 2015?

I'm unconvinced on Eades, his mechanics make it seem like he's going to be battling arm issues for the duration of his career. Convince me that the Twins can do better than him with a 2015 pick, at say around 40-45, and I'll be on board with keeping the pick. With Drew, isn't there a chance you can trade him for a more proven prospect, or recover the lost pick with a QO?

#8 Guest_USAFChief_*

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Posted 29 January 2014 - 07:09 PM

Am I missing something? The Twins wouldn't lose any 2015 pick(s) by signing a free agent now. The only pick(s) that would be lost are in 2014.

#9 AM.

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Posted 29 January 2014 - 07:44 PM

Am I missing something? The Twins wouldn't lose any 2015 pick(s) by signing a free agent now. The only pick(s) that would be lost are in 2014.



I believe eve that is correct. The only thing that is up for grabs is how many spots down the Twins pick falls...when sandwich picks are awarded for Kendrys, Ubaldo, and Ervin.

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#10 cmathewson

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Posted 29 January 2014 - 07:52 PM

Perhaps I'm missing something here. The Twins 2nd rd. pick is currently #45 for 2014. Isn't it likely going to be around that level in 2015?

I'm unconvinced on Eades, his mechanics make it seem like he's going to be battling arm issues for the duration of his career. Convince me that the Twins can do better than him with a 2015 pick, at say around 40-45, and I'll be on board with keeping the pick. With Drew, isn't there a chance you can trade him for a more proven prospect, or recover the lost pick with a QO?


You're right. It's mid 45, probably lower. I'm sure the Twins already have a draft board that goes well beyond that, and are evaluating what the true value of the pick is. The fact that the Sox would rather have the pick than Drew is telling, though. But, to be fair, they do have a better replacement.
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#11 jokin

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Posted 29 January 2014 - 07:54 PM

You're right. It's mid 45, probably lower. I'm sure the Twins already have a draft board that goes well beyond that, and are evaluating what the true value of the pick is. The fact that the Sox would rather have the pick than Drew is telling, though.

But, to be fair, they do have a better replacement.


Thanks for clarifying, you had me confused there.

And yeah, "better replacement" is the understatent of the offseason.

#12 Guest_USAFChief_*

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Posted 29 January 2014 - 08:10 PM

You're right. It's mid 45, probably lower. I'm sure the Twins already have a draft board that goes well beyond that, and are evaluating what the true value of the pick is. The fact that the Sox would rather have the pick than Drew is telling, though. But, to be fair, they do have a better replacement.

They also offered him a 1 yr deal at $14m.

#13 birdwatcher

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Posted 29 January 2014 - 08:22 PM

You're right. It's mid 45, probably lower. I'm sure the Twins already have a draft board that goes well beyond that, and are evaluating what the true value of the pick is. The fact that the Sox would rather have the pick than Drew is telling, though. But, to be fair, they do have a better replacement.


In a deeper draft than last year, when Eades was our pick a that spot. And it's good to remember that Eades is thought to be our 11th best prospect by two experts out here, and a consensus top 20. That's nothing to sneeze at.

#14 nicksaviking

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Posted 29 January 2014 - 08:46 PM

And with college guys Rodon, Hoffman, Beede and Turner near the top of the boards, there may be money to spend on a tough sign HS kid come round two.

I'd gladly give up the pick for a player I wanted long term, but I don't want Drew long term.

#15 jokin

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Posted 29 January 2014 - 09:24 PM

And with college guys Rodon, Hoffman, Beede and Turner near the top of the boards, there may be money to spend on a tough sign HS kid come round two.

I'd gladly give up the pick for a player I wanted long term, but I don't want Drew long term.


I don't think anyone wants Drew long-term, but a one or two year deal, plus all the consequences surrounding a favorably flippable SS asset.... and.... given the Twins history in the 2nd round, you can probably get a more proven prospect on the flip, or a Sandwich 1st Rd. Pick after a declined QO.

Edited by jokin, 29 January 2014 - 09:28 PM.


#16 Guest_USAFChief_*

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Posted 29 January 2014 - 09:35 PM

In a deeper draft than last year, when Eades was our pick a that spot. And it's good to remember that Eades is thought to be our 11th best prospect by two experts out here, and a consensus top 20. That's nothing to sneeze at.

I guess this is where I differ with many of you.

Prospects are nice, but a 22 yr old who threw 16 innings for Elizabethton last year (and didnt impress much at that) is so far from being of any value to the major league team as to not be worth serious consideration compared to someone who can help the major league team immediately.

I get that every team needs to fill its system with talent, and hope that eventually a little bubbles to the top now and then. I also understand you might get a better prospect at that spot this year. You also might get worse, or not sign the guy you do draft.

This team has lost almost 300 games in three seasons. They should be worried about putting a better product on the field now, more so than what a second round pick might do for them in 2017.

#17 TheLeviathan

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Posted 29 January 2014 - 09:35 PM

I don't think anyone wants Drew long-term, but a one or two year deal, plus all the consequences surrounding a favorably flippable SS asset.... and.... given the Twins history in the 2nd round, you can probably get a more proven prospect on the flip, or a Sandwich 1st Rd. Pick after a declined QO.


This is hardly a given right now for Boston, much less two years from now.

I know this has been hard to understand for some - but Drew hasn't been a particularly sought-after player for quite some time. He was traded for scraps to Oakland (injury reasons granted), let go despite a team option, signed to a one year deal with Boston, and now can't get a contract into February despite (as we're told) only a measly second round pick and his demands standing in the way.

Say what you want about his value as a player, but his value as a commodity hasn't been high in a long, long time. So projecting him as a favorably flippable asset just isn't backed up by recent events.

#18 jokin

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Posted 29 January 2014 - 09:59 PM

This is hardly a given right now for Boston, much less two years from now.

I know this has been hard to understand for some - but Drew hasn't been a particularly sought-after player for quite some time. He was traded for scraps to Oakland (injury reasons granted), let go despite a team option, signed to a one year deal with Boston, and now can't get a contract into February despite (as we're told) only a measly second round pick and his demands standing in the way.

Say what you want about his value as a player, but his value as a commodity hasn't been high in a long, long time. So projecting him as a favorably flippable asset just isn't backed up by recent events.


My projection was entirely based on Drew's potential to come close to repeating the production he gave in 2013. Certainly, if he is having a good year in 2014, many clubs will be on the phone if they suddenly become needy in the middle infield when there is no draft pick involved and the costs of his remaining contract are fully quantifiable. And Boras always declines the QO.

A risk for the Twins, yes, but one I was willing to seriously entertain had the Twins signed an additional Garza-level FA SP. Now that Garza is off the table and the Twins are highly unlikely to sign anyone else, it's probably best that the Twins move on, and resign themselves to another likely 90-loss season and start thinking hard about who plays SS in 2015 and beyond.

#19 Willihammer

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Posted 29 January 2014 - 10:29 PM

3 years with a 4th player option, get it done TR.

#20 johnnydakota

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Posted 29 January 2014 - 10:36 PM

Cant say it enough Diaz....a young guy to grow up with the team ....not someone who will decline when we need them the most..but that is only me

go Twins

#21 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 30 January 2014 - 08:51 AM

The fact that the Sox would rather have the pick than Drew is telling, though. But, to be fair, they do have a better replacement.


That's a huge understatement. Keeping Drew in Boston over Bogaerts would be like retaining 2013 Trevor Plouffe so you could keep 2015 Miguel Sano in the minors.

Drew's ability has very little to do with the Sox' qualifying offer. It has everything to do with Xander Bogaerts' ability.

#22 nicksaviking

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Posted 30 January 2014 - 09:56 AM

I don't think anyone wants Drew long-term, but a one or two year deal, plus all the consequences surrounding a favorably flippable SS asset.... and.... given the Twins history in the 2nd round, you can probably get a more proven prospect on the flip, or a Sandwich 1st Rd. Pick after a declined QO.


Boston is having a hard time getting a team to bite on their comp pick right now after his best and least injury filled season in three years. I don't think the Twins can count on getting much for him at $10M per unless you think he's actually going to improve off last season. That would seem to be quite a longshot considering his splits away from Fenway.

#23 tobi0040

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Posted 30 January 2014 - 10:57 AM

3 years with a 4th player option, get it done TR.


I like Drew at 3/30 or less. Two with an option would be preferred. If we are going to pick a potential 4th or 5th starter with our second round pick like Eades, this would not be worth much in my opinion.

Also, things can change over the next year that can turn a draft from deep to average or worse. Players get hurt, struggle, fail tests, get suspended, etc. Sean Mannea was supposed to be a candidate for 1-1 and he went in the second round. Jonathan Gray was not a first round pick and not even a Friday starter at the beginning of the year. Gonslaves went from the first round to the fourth. It is early.

#24 dakotanative

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Posted 30 January 2014 - 11:11 AM

Making the list and making it and staying in the show are two different things.

#25 twinsnorth49

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Posted 30 January 2014 - 11:15 AM

Cant say it enough Diaz....a young guy to grow up with the team ....not someone who will decline when we need them the most..but that is only me

go Twins


Why not both? You're making the assumption Diaz is major league ready, which there is considerable doubt on. Additionally there are quite a few out there that project him more as a 2nd baseman.

#26 jay

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Posted 30 January 2014 - 11:19 AM

I'm going to make a prediction. Drew will sign somewhere for even less than we're talking about now. A fair portion of TD will vomit in disgust and the Drew topic will surpass the 5,000 post mark.

#27 ScottyB

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Posted 30 January 2014 - 11:25 AM

Let's face it, 2014 is not going to be a year that we're in contention. You sign Drew now, even to a 3 year deal, and for 1/3 of the contract he'll do us no good. Personally, I'd rather muddle through a couple of seasons with Florimon and Santana, and draft Trea Turner in June, along with a high-upside HS pitcher in the second. Turner could be ready as soon as 2016 and would be a great addition to a future core of Buxton, Sano, Arcia, Pinto, Hicks, Meyer, Gibson, Berrios, Dozier, Rosario, etc. I'd much prefer that scenario than signing Drew. I have a feeling in the future, Drew might consider accepting a QO rather than go through the headache he's gone through this winter.

#28 TheLeviathan

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Posted 30 January 2014 - 11:27 AM

I'm going to make a prediction. Drew will sign somewhere for even less than we're talking about now. A fair portion of TD will vomit in disgust and the Drew topic will surpass the 5,000 post mark.


And then, as is usually the case in such situations, reality will hurt and Drew will have been utterly meaningless to the team that signed him. Ultimately negating the entire debate in the first place. :)

#29 Willihammer

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Posted 30 January 2014 - 11:52 AM

I like Drew at 3/30 or less. Two with an option would be preferred.


I was half joking, if that wasn't clear. The market is so weak for SS's I doubt a guaranteed 3rd year is in the cards for Drew.

That said I still like him as a definite upgrade in the short term and long term. LH-swinging middle infielders who can hit don't come around every year.

#30 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 30 January 2014 - 12:02 PM

Let's face it, 2014 is not going to be a year that we're in contention. You sign Drew now, even to a 3 year deal, and for 1/3 of the contract he'll do us no good. Personally, I'd rather muddle through a couple of seasons with Florimon and Santana, and draft Trea Turner in June, along with a high-upside HS pitcher in the second. Turner could be ready as soon as 2016 and would be a great addition to a future core of Buxton, Sano, Arcia, Pinto, Hicks, Meyer, Gibson, Berrios, Dozier, Rosario, etc. I'd much prefer that scenario than signing Drew. I have a feeling in the future, Drew might consider accepting a QO rather than go through the headache he's gone through this winter.


If Turner is the BPA available to the Twins in next year's draft, pick him up.

But MLB roster decisions should not be made based on a draft that hasn't happened yet.

If you think Florimon is a "good enough" stop-gap, so be it... But planning 3-4 years out and basing decisions on players that aren't even under your control is a good way to be a really bad team for a really long time... or in perpetuity, really.