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#1 TwinsTerritory

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Posted 28 January 2014 - 03:50 PM

It's a cold day and I have the day off from teaching, so let's pretend that you're the new Twins GM. Where would you go from here?

Here's my grand plan (in a world where nobody gets hurt and all prospects live up to their billing). Please bear in mind that as the Twins GM, my goals are as follows.
2014--progress, 73-77 wins
2015--above .500, competitive into August/September
2016 and beyond--playoff contender/participant

2013-14 Off-season
*Trade Aaron Hicks, Eddie Rosario, and Kevin Corriea for Homer Bailey
*Sign Bailey to a 6 year/$95 million dollar contract that buys out his last arbitration year (he is going to make about $10 million in 2014 through arbitration)
*Trade Worley & Diamond for low-level prospects (one of them can stay if Deduno starts on the DL)

2014 Opening Day Roster
1. Presley CF
2. Dozier 2B
3. Mauer 1B
4. Willingham LF
5. Kubel DH
6. Arcia RF
7. Plouffe 3B
8. Suzuki C
9. Florimon SS

Bench-Fryer, Parmalee, Escobar, Mastroianni
SP-Bailey, Nolasco, Hughes, Pelfrey, Deduno
RP-Perkins, Burton, Fien, Duensing, Swarzak, Thielbar, Pressly

2014 Payroll Estimate: $90 million

2014 Summer
*Trade Willingham, Pelfrey & Burton for prospects
*Call up Sano, Gibson, Pinto & Tonkin

2014 September Call-ups
Buxton, Meyer & May

2014-15 Off-season
*Sign Nick Markakis to a 3 year/$30 million dollar contract
*Resign Suzuki to a 1 year/$2 million dollar contract
*Don't offer Duensing arbitration

2015 Line-up
1. Buxton CF
2. Dozier 2B
3. Mauer 1B
4. Sano 3B
5. Arcia LF
6. Markakis RF
7. Plouffe DH
8. Pinto C
9. Florimon SS

Bench: Suzuki, Parmalee, Escobar, Presley
SP: Bailey, Nolasco, Meyer, Hughes, Gibson
RP: Perkins, Fien, Tonkin, Thielbar, Swarzak, Deduno, Pressly

2015 Payroll Estimate: $95-100 million

This would leave the Twins with control of almost everyone heading into 2016 and plenty of money to get a free agent or two.


Now that I've killed an hour, feel free to rip my plans (or make positive suggestions):roll:

Edited by TwinsTerritory, 28 January 2014 - 03:53 PM.


#2 SpiritofVodkaDave

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Posted 28 January 2014 - 04:06 PM

SP-Bailey, Nolasco, Hughes, Pelfrey, Deduno

That rotation (once Gibson is up as well) is more than good enough to be .500 at least. Also I like the trade idea, however, trading Hicks while his value is bottomed out is not a good idea IMO (though I understand why you included him)

Also I think they need to address SS

#3 Boom Boom

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Posted 28 January 2014 - 04:07 PM

I don't know all the rules, but I'm pretty sure the Twins can't trade Rosario while he's suspended.

#4 TwinsTerritory

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Posted 28 January 2014 - 04:18 PM

I didn't know the rules about trading Rosario either and I couldn't find them anywhere. Could he be a PTBNL?

#5 edavis0308

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Posted 28 January 2014 - 04:37 PM

Sign AJ Burnett to a one year deal.

#6 S.

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Posted 28 January 2014 - 05:03 PM

Sign AJ Burnett to a one year deal.

His wife doesn't fly (I guess) and he has said he wants to be close to home. I assume that limits his options to only a few teams (pirates/orioles/phillies/nats/etc) that he'd be willing to play for, and I assume out of those very few teams, he's going to want to play for someone that has a decent chance of playing in the postseason if he is to sign a deal.

#7 CRArko

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Posted 28 January 2014 - 05:20 PM

I would retire, take the Golden Parachute, and let Terry Ryan have the job back.

#8 BigTrane

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Posted 28 January 2014 - 08:22 PM

Homer Bailey- love it for that alone! ;)
Feel free to pile on about Suzuki.

#9 mnfireman

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Posted 28 January 2014 - 08:33 PM

I tried to come up with something, but this roster is full of too many underperforming position players who are also redundant, meaning they are the same player. Willingham & Colabello; Parmalee & Kubel; Mastro & Presley; Escobar & Florimon; Suzuki & Fryer. No advantage gained by playing one over the other, whoever doesn't play has no trade value. Toss in Plouffe & Herrmann and there isn't much to get to excited about. Mauer is the only known value. Dozier & Arcia each had about a half season of good production and we don't know where Hicks is, but he did show signs of improvement before the final slump that got him sent down. This team is waiting for Sano, Buxton, Rosario, Pinto, Meyer, Walker, et al to arrive. If you ask me, Terry Ryan can keep the job for at least two more seasons then walk away, like before! :P

#10 Kwak

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Posted 28 January 2014 - 08:47 PM

Just don't go to the owner and say "we need to spend $30mm on players."

#11 Guest_USAFChief_*

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Posted 28 January 2014 - 09:26 PM

Sign Drew, 3/$30 +$1m buyout on 4th yr.

Sign Morales, 3/$24.

Give Hicks, Pinto, Arcia and Sano opening day slots unless they cough them up in spring training.

Lineup:
1. Dozier
2. Mauer
3. Willingham
4. Morales
5. Sano
6. Arcia
7. Drew
8. Pinto
9. Hicks

Bench: Suzuki, Escobar or Florimon, Plouffe, Mastro or Presley.

For another $18m-ish per year you've got a lineup that stands a chance to be decent, haven't blocked anyone, and haven't committed long term anywhere. When/if Buxton is ready, trade Willingham, or more likely, have Buxton replace the outfielder doing the worst or out with injury.

#12 halfchest

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Posted 28 January 2014 - 09:31 PM

I like some of it but I don't like trading Rosario and Hicks at this point. I think their value is down due to Hicks rough first year and Rosario due to the suspension. Just seems like it would be better to keep those guys for a year. However, they make the most sense to trade due to Buxton, Dozier, and Polanco being in the system. So I get it, just don't think it's good to trade low on guys. Maybe Polanco and Berrios instead? I'm thinking they're gonna want a pitcher in return for Bailey if they do trade him. Other than that I like the plan hate the bench in 2015 though. Hope we could get someone with a little more pop on that bench.

#13 pierre75275

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Posted 28 January 2014 - 09:52 PM

Not ripping on the plan but why would you trade away hicks and rosario for bailey during a year you dont expect to hit .500 anyway, especially when you can have him the next yr for a second rd draft pick and being the highest bidder? I would not trade for bailey but sign him in the offseason and sign drew this offseason for 3 +1 at less then ten million a yr. and I wouldnt resign suzuki either for 2015. otherwise i like it, especially the markakias signing

#14 ashburyjohn

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Posted 28 January 2014 - 09:55 PM

Didn't see any real discussion of that proposed Bailey trade. 1) Don't you think Cincy will get a better offer for him than a second-tier CF prospect, a converted 2B prospect (putting aside the suspension), and a journeyman SP? 2) Why would Bailey sign for $16M a year?

/ edit - taking into account pierre75275's comment, it seems like a trade that neither side might accept, all things considered

#15 Sconnie

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Posted 28 January 2014 - 10:10 PM

The Homer Bailey trade is a pipe dream, but a guy can dream can't he?

#16 Hosken Bombo Disco

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Posted 28 January 2014 - 10:31 PM

I also think Markakis retires an Oriole but who can know for sure.

#17 jay

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Posted 28 January 2014 - 10:51 PM

Lineup:
1. Dozier
2. Mauer
3. Willingham
4. Morales
5. Sano
6. Arcia
7. Drew
8. Pinto
9. Hicks

Bench: Suzuki, Escobar or Florimon, Plouffe, Mastro or Presley.


No question that lineup would score some runs. Good bench options if Sano/Pinto/Hicks struggle. I'm concerned about defense, but it's not significantly different than what we're set to trot out today. If Buxton makes it up mid-summer as suggested there, that helps a ton in that area.

#18 TwinsTerritory

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Posted 28 January 2014 - 11:11 PM

Not ripping on the plan but why would you trade away hicks and rosario for bailey during a year you dont expect to hit .500 anyway, especially when you can have him the next yr for a second rd draft pick and being the highest bidder? I would not trade for bailey but sign him in the offseason and sign drew this offseason for 3 +1 at less then ten million a yr. and I wouldnt resign suzuki either for 2015. otherwise i like it, especially the markakias signing


Good question! The only problem I see with waiting a year is that he is now a free agent and it only takes one desperate team. By trading for him now, the Twins would have a little leverage. There is always some value to a long-term security, especially for a pitcher that can blow out their elbow and never see the big pay day.

As far as Hicks and Rosario are concerned, I see them as good prospects that have a 50/50 chance of being MLB regulars. In my mind they each have about a 50% chance of being a solid major league player, so we're basically trading a left fielder for a top end pitcher (and we send Corriea back because we don't need 8 starters and it saves us a little money).

#19 TwinsTerritory

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Posted 28 January 2014 - 11:17 PM

[quote name='ashburyjohn']Didn't see any real discussion of that proposed Bailey trade. 1) Don't you think Cincy will get a better offer for him than a second-tier CF prospect, a converted 2B prospect (putting aside the suspension), and a journeyman SP? 2) Why would Bailey sign for $16M a year?

Cincinnati may receive a better offer, but 2 solid prospects and a decent starting pitcher may be their best offer. Hicks gives them a back-up plan if Hamilton can't hit. Rosario is a top 50 prospect. Corriea fills the 5 spot in their rotation at a very reasonable $5.5 million dollar value.

As for Bailey signing for 6 years/$95 million. He is arbitration eligible, so he is going to be paid about $10 million in 2014. Basically that would make the new money 5 years/$85 million. I'm having a hard time deciding on what he's worth on the open market. The Kershaw and Tanaka deals would leave me to believe he's worth over $20 million per year. However, the Garza deal and rumors about Santana and Jimenez lead me to believe that $17 million per year is reasonable for someone that has only had 2 above average years. I obviously have no idea what he and his agent are looking for, but I think $95 million dollars would be a big number for a guy with his career numbers.

#20 Riverbrian

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Posted 28 January 2014 - 11:29 PM

If I'm the GM... I want a frontline Starter and Speed... I'm not sure how to acquire it though because our trade value bottomed out and I don't want to part with prospects.
A Skeleton walks into a bar and says... "Give me a beer... And a mop".

#21 DocBauer

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Posted 28 January 2014 - 11:34 PM

I play GM all the time. Usually with my father, a very passionate, educated and lifelong Twins fan in his own right. We always come to great conclusions with a final statement of; "now if they would just listen to us." Lol

The way the market has played out the past month, or perhaps the way it has slowed down and not played out, with the exception of Tanaka and now Garza, my thoughts on spending have changed somewhat. I do not subscribe to the theory of "spend money since we have it". I know money not spent this year is not squirreled away to spend later. However, not overspending does open the door for additions next season and beyond. And as GM, I am concerned not only with putting a better, more competitive team on the field this season, but building for 2015 and 2016, and not handcuffing myself.

My first action would be to sign E Santana to a 3 yr deal in the 36-40M range as has been speculated. I was previously opposed to such a signing, favoring Garza for various reasons, but like Santana and believe the Garza signing and slower market to this point has changed the dynamics of the FA market.

Next I would trade Correia to someone in need of rounding/stabilizing their rotation. (Decent, solid SP is always in need somewhere) And I believe Correia would be attractive somewhere, especially considering the low salary as well as only a one year term. Gladly move him for a low or high A prospect of decent quality. Would even consider eating a portion of his salary if necessary, but prefer not to, hence the A level player return.

I wish I had a reliable crystal ball to tell me for certain what to expect from Willingham, Kubel and Hicks this season. But I don't. So I have to go with my gut and personal expectations, tempered with the immediate vs the building for the future. I believe Willingham will rebound and hit close to career norms this season, primarily as a DH and occasional LF. I feel Kubel might have life left after a one year plunge, and I welcomed the low risk signing initially, though I have doubts how he will truly respond. I also want to improve my bench and its versatility.

I have debated and now decided that K Morales is a perfect signing for my team. He is only 30 when the season starts, provides much needed power to my lineup, can provide an occasional start at 1B to give Mauer a day off, and provides an excellent PH when not in the lineup. Someone suggested 3 and 24M and I'll go with that, but have a feeling he might be had for 3 and 18-21M with the way the market has slowed.

Willingham might be traded tomorrow, during ST, a month or two or all star break during the season, or not at all and just walk away at the end. Any way, I have Morales at DH for two more seasons to help my lineup, and take a little pressure off Sano, Arcia, and to a lesser extent Pinto and possibly Plouffe. And with Morales in the fold, I wouldn't feel as bad selling low on Willngham. He's gone end of the year anyway, and even if he rebounds to his career norms, how much value in return do we really expect from an older player with mediocre defense in the OF?

Now, forgive me if I've missed a signing here, but last I checked utility guys Turner and Baker were still available. I'd sign one of them, and would still consider Betemitt for his bat and occasional Inf duty. I'm going to pick J Baker for his overall flexibility for this scenario.

I am a strong believer in Hicks, his talent and potential, as well as his ability to adapt, grow and develop from his experiences last season, as well as being optimistic that he was not only showing some improvement before injury, but that Glynn reported he was probably Rochester's best player the last few weeks of the season. Additionally, while I feel Presley is best used as a 4th OF, he may be our best lead off option for the time being as a decent defensive player who hits a little, gets OB a little, hits for a few XB's, can take an extra base and provide a little speed on the base paths. Nothing special, but a little bit of everything.

So my 2014 Twins are as follows:

1) Presley=LF/RF
2) Dozier=2B
3) Mauer=1B
4) Willingam=DH/LF
5) Morales=DH
6) Arcia=RF/LF
7) Plouffe=3B
8) Pinto/Suzuki=C
9) Hicks=CF
10) Floriman/Escobar=SS

Kubel as a LH DH/PH/OF and Baker as an OF/INF utility

Yes, I know a batting order only has 9 spots! I'm only showing it as 10 to examine some of the daily versatility available, along with Baker and possibly Kubel fitting in.

My rotation has:

1&2) Santana
2&1) Nolasco
3) Hughes
4) Pelfrey
5) Deduno, Diamond, Worley and hopefully Gibson

My bullpen includes: Perkins, Burton, Fien, Duensing, Thielbar, Swarzak and Tonkin or Pressley.

Yes, I have a 26 man roster. But this accounts for injury, pseudo injury, trade, minor options and a SP staff that might allow for an 11 man staff instead of 12.

I am OK payroll wise for this season as well as the future. I have a solid rotation with two #2 starters who occasionally pitch like #1's, a young, talented and somewhat enigmatic #3 with lots of potential now that he is out of NY, that park, a fresh start, and Anderson and Cueller to lead him, a potentially very solid and above average #4, and several options a #5, hopefully Gibson in the near if not immediate future. And there is no-one signed long enough or high enough to prevent a trade to open a spot in the next season or two for Meyer or May. (Or a trade or additional FA signing as well)

I have a deep and versatile bullpen that performed well last season, should be better this season without being overworked, and has potential depth in the minors.

With my couple additions and return to health, my lineup provides at least decent overall production, some versatility, quality defense at most positions, and like the SP staff, there is nothing in years or salary to block top prospects such as Sano, Buxton, Rosario, Santana, etc.

#22 Shane Wahl

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Posted 28 January 2014 - 11:40 PM

I would not trade Hicks at all. Let him become the player he can be this season. A Hicks-Buxton outfield is ridiculous defensively.

#23 Don't Feed the Greed Guy

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Posted 28 January 2014 - 11:45 PM

Likes: Keeping Florimon.

Dislikes: Trading Hicks and Rosario when their value couldn't be any lower. And, bringing in Bailey when we need a little space in the rotation for internal talent to advance.

And I agree with those who see Nick the Greek as a lifetime Oriole. Have you ever hear that sing-song "Nick Mar-Ka-Kis" chant? It belongs at Camden Fields as much as that awesomely bad "De-rek Je-ter" chant fits in Yankee Stadium at the top half of the first inning. Also, Nick is in decline, although I checked his numbers out before posting. I can't believe he's just 29? He broke in with the O's in 2006, at the tender age of 22, posted a .291 batting average, and played in 147 games. Maybe we can trade Mauer for him? (yes, that's sarcasm...)

#24 Shane Wahl

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Posted 28 January 2014 - 11:48 PM

I think lineups:

vs. RH

Dozier 2B
Mauer 1B
Arcia RF
Kubel DH
Willingham LF
Hicks CF
Plouffe 3B
Herrmann C
Florimon SS

and vs. LH

Dozier 2B
Hicks CF
Mauer 1B
Willingham LF
Plouffe 3B
Arcia RF
Colabello DH
Suzuki C
Florimon SS

Should not be out of the question and should be considered a 5+ win improvement alone over last year. And Sano can easily be inserted eventually.

The pitching staff is also probably at an 8+ win improvement over last year. There is no reason this team doesn't get to 80 wins in 2014. And it's one more year of development for prospects who will be making the leap in 2015.

#25 Riverbrian

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Posted 28 January 2014 - 11:48 PM

I would not trade Hicks at all. Let him become the player he can be this season. A Hicks-Buxton outfield is ridiculous defensively.


I agree... I don't trade Hicks either.

Its a sell low scenerio until he figures it out. Once he figures it out... We will be miserable knowing he's not still with us.
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#26 Shane Wahl

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Posted 28 January 2014 - 11:48 PM

Pinto soon takes the place of Suzuki and Herrmann (most of the time). There you go.

#27 Don't Feed the Greed Guy

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Posted 29 January 2014 - 12:01 AM

Another thought, since I am the GM after all...

Does Hicks' experiment keep me from pushing Sano and Buxton, preventing a repeat of the "Terrible Twins" of 1982? Attached File  terrible twins.jpg   12.07KB   47 downloads

I'd love to see "terrible" improvement in 2014, instead of place holding AAAA players like Colabello, Diamond, Hendricks, Albers, Thomas, and the like... Kids like Sano, Buxton, Arcia, Hicks, Gibson and company can learn and improve in the MLB too. It's called on-the-job training. But I'm afraid that the Twin's front office has lost the cojones for premature advancement after the Hicks debacle...

#28 johnnydakota

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Posted 29 January 2014 - 12:15 AM

With Texas looking to sign Bruce Chen , maybe offer up 1 of our AAAA lefties Diamond ,Johnson,Gilmartin , for Sardinas.It might also take 1 of our 14-25 prospects as well.
Next sign Jimenez , Not Santana , 4/50-52 or Hammel on a 2/18 , then trade Worley and May to baltimore for Johnny Monell and a 10-20 prospect, next trade Correia and Bard to Huston for Stassi and LHP Hader (A ball)Sign both Yenier Bello and Diaz.

#29 Oxtung

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Posted 29 January 2014 - 02:32 AM

Isn't the reason Homer Bailey is thought to be available because he wouldn't sign an extension with the Reds but instead wanted to hit FA? I like your idea of searching for an above average pitcher via trade though.

...

My rotation has:

1&2) Santana
2&1) Nolasco
3) Hughes
4) Pelfrey
5) Deduno, Diamond, Worley and hopefully Gibson

...

I have a solid rotation with two #2 starters who occasionally pitch like #1's, a young, talented and somewhat enigmatic #3 with lots of potential now that he is out of NY, that park, a fresh start, and Anderson and Cueller to lead him, a potentially very solid and above average #4, and several options a #5, hopefully Gibson in the near if not immediate future. And there is no-one signed long enough or high enough to prevent a trade to open a spot in the next season or two for Meyer or May. (Or a trade or additional FA signing as well)

...


Not trying to throw this too far off topic or to rekindle the starting pitcher debates but your analysis seems to be pretty....optimistic. IMO not many other teams would consider Ricky Nolasco a #2 starter (and many wouldn't even consider him a #3) or Phil Hughes a #3 starter.

I do know that Nolasco was the #4 starter for the Dodgers last year and Phil Hughes made the Yankee's rotation in only 2 of their 5 playoffs.

I think your rotation would look more like:
2/3) Santana1
3/4) Nolasco
3-5) Pelfrey2
5) Hughes
5) Crapshoot

1 Santana can certainly pitch like a #2 but is he consistent enough to be labeled as such?
2Who knows what the Twins will get from Pelfrey. Could be anything from Yeah! to OMG Gouge my eyes out. Reminds me a lot of Liriano in that way.

#30 stringer bell

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Posted 29 January 2014 - 05:29 AM

If I were the GM, I sign Morales to a three-year deal. I love the idea of a switch hitter with no appreciable platoon splits in the middle of the lineup. I subtract two starters in separate small trades--Correia and Worley adding in a prospect with Worley to acquire a shortstop who'll be contributing by mid-season next year at the latest. The prospect would be in the range of Harrison/Walker and if both are needed to be traded, do it. Willingham goes by mid-season, but he should be in the lineup every day to rebuild some trade value. Hicks and regrettably Pinto start the season in Rochester, but both are recalled before Memorial Day.