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Yoon and Waring and dues-paying

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#1 jokin

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Posted 26 January 2014 - 06:38 PM

Interesting back-to-back aritcles from the always-informative Camden Depot blog, it soon becomes obvious why the Twins have interest in both players:

http://camdendepot.b...nt-pitcher.html

http://camdendepot.b...eague-free.html

The following is taken from an interview with a respected Korean baseball writer:

[QUOTE]Yoon had been drawing some scouts, I think, but more of them attended his games in 2013 than in previous years, perhaps....I think some teams still may have reservations about Yoon's shoulder issues, though I am sure Scott Boras and company are trying to defuse such concerns. Also, his peripheral numbers from his most recent season do not really stand out even though I understand scouts will look at more than just stats. Just by looking at his numbers (strikeout ratio, walk rate, home runs allowed, etc.), you could even argue he has been in decline since winning the 2011 MVP. Having said that, I know some teams will look past those stats. I feel that he has the physical tools to succeed in the big leagues, if given a fair chance.

Yoon has also been adamant that he wants to be a starter, which may or may not have thrown off some teams who were considering him as a reliever.

He has put in nine years for the Kia Tigers. He has started, closed, and pitched in middle relief. They won the 2009 Korean Series, but they had some terrible seasons, too. He won the MVP after going 17-5, but there was also one season when he was 7-18 while still managing to keep his ERA under 4.00.....In other words, you want to talk about a guy who has paid his dues? Yoon is that guy [/QUOTE]


What will it take to sign him? And, is it worth the risk? Do the Twins think he's "better than his recent stats" indicate and are willing to outbid the competition?

And it turns out, Brandon Waring is a more interesting 28 year old, corner infielder, AAAA type, than I initially gave both he and Terry Ryan credit for after the signing, and gives the Spring Training invite some more credibility:


[QUOTE]........he's not going to be a star or even a good regular player. Still, Waring's skill set isn't that much different from Mark Reynolds' - low-average power hitter who draws a few walks and plays bad defense - and because so many teams have problems finding even slightly productive designated hitters, can Waring be a useful player to somebody?
[/QUOTE]

Poor man's Mark Reynolds? His K and BB ratios are similar. He has hit over 20 HRs in every professional year. His AA/AAA career ISO is .233. Like Suk Min Yoon, he has put in his time in minor league ball- 7 years, and bounced between AA and AAA since 2010 (a shoulder injury forced him back to AA in 2013). He was forever blocked by Machado and Davis in the Orioles organization, thus time for him to move on. Oliver MLB 2014 projections are somewhat comical: 24 HR, .180 BA, .621 OPS, 40% K-rate. Intriguingly, the Camden Depot author, after breaking down numerous Waring ABs, surmises that there are enough positives in his game with his power potential and ability to hit the ball in the air, that a change in approach at the plate could salvage a role-playing major league spot for him, although the odds are against him:


[QUOTE]It definitely seem that Waring hits the ball in the air more than average (both LD% and FB%), which is not surprising but also advantageous......Brandon Waring has the power to possibly make him a useful bench part on a major-league team. Certainly he deserved more of a shot than the Orioles gave him. I'm not going to state that the Orioles should have given him that shot and I'm certainly not going to say that he would have done anything with his shot. It does seem that Waring could have changed his game to work ahead of the pitchers more frequently and take more advantage of his power.[/QUOTE]

Most intriguingly, the author left out his platoon split in AA/AAA:

Against LHP, he has a career .910 OPS with .294 ISO power, while hitting the ball in the air (LD [22%] and OFB combined) 68.4% of the time.

(By contrast, Plouffe's major league numbers against LHP:
.861OPS with .234 ISO power, while hitting the ball in the air 46% of the time [LD 15.5%].)

Does he have a chance to get the Bernier/Dinkleman/Hughes cup of coffee with the Twins, or as an uppercutting DH/corner UTIL specialist?

Edited by jokin, 26 January 2014 - 08:41 PM.


#2 The Wise One

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Posted 26 January 2014 - 08:20 PM

In regards to Yoon one would have to work him out to see if his fastball and slider are back. Statistics on an injured player are kind of meaningless, so why would one even bother to analyze them?
In regards to Waring. Should a player have a full season's worth of games at the AAA level and/or a failure at the major league level to be hailed as a AAAA player? Your numbers touted on Waring would say to me he didn't hit minor league pitching in the air enough with a career OPS at AA and AAA below .800.

#3 jokin

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Posted 28 January 2014 - 07:05 PM

In regards to Yoon one would have to work him out to see if his fastball and slider are back. Statistics on an injured player are kind of meaningless, so why would one even bother to analyze them?
In regards to Waring. Should a player have a full season's worth of games at the AAA level and/or a failure at the major league level to be hailed as a AAAA player? Your numbers touted on Waring would say to me he didn't hit minor league pitching in the air enough with a career OPS at AA and AAA below .800.


You missed the part about his extreme platoon hit advantage against lefties, which was the point of the post. This guy against lefties has a career AA/AAA HR/FB rate of 24.1% and in 2013 his rate was 28% (22% combined) Only Chris Davis in the majors had a higher combined rate than Waring against lefties (29.6%). Waring's combined HR/FB% in 2013 would have ranked 6th in the majors.

I can see what Terry Ryan is thinking here. Who knows? It's certainly worth a spring training look.

#4 jokin

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Posted 28 January 2014 - 07:29 PM

I forgot to include the other standout stat for Waring. His FB % was nearly 49% combined (51% vs LHP). This ~49% number comparatively would have been second in MLB, with only Brandon Moss (51.8%) topping Waring.

#5 The Wise One

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Posted 29 January 2014 - 06:37 AM

At 28 years old and 4 years at AA, Waring has been seen by the scouts. LHP hitting machine in the minors does not necessarily translate 100% to the major leagues. So, no I did not miss something. Your looking merely at minor league statistics to make analysis of MLB skills missed.

#6 jokin

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Posted 29 January 2014 - 07:26 AM

At 28 years old and 4 years at AA, Waring has been seen by the scouts. LHP hitting machine in the minors does not necessarily translate 100% to the major leagues. So, no I did not miss something. Your looking merely at minor league statistics to make analysis of MLB skills missed.


No one said that anything necessarily translates. One article that I cited in this thread said it might translate to major league skils, and apparently, Terry Ryanm by giving Waring a Spring Training invite, is willing to take a shot on a unique talent set to see if it might translate.

#7 jokin

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Posted 29 January 2014 - 07:32 AM

A Korean source says that Suk Min Yoon is reportedly very close to signing a deal, with the Red Sox and the Twins in the lead for his sevices. The deal is being estimated to be worth around 2/$10M.

#8 zenser

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Posted 29 January 2014 - 08:31 AM

I would say pass on them both. I get the interest in Yoon. I don't see any interest in Waring. Why would we want a poor man's Mark Reynolds when we wouldn't and didn't want Mark Reynolds?

#9 big dog

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Posted 29 January 2014 - 09:16 AM

Waring doesn't take up a roster spot, and might be useful. RH power isn't exactly a team strength, especially on the bench. Happy to see him get a shot.

#10 The Wise One

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Posted 29 January 2014 - 01:15 PM

No one said that anything necessarily translates. One article that I cited in this thread said it might translate to major league skils, and apparently, Terry Ryanm by giving Waring a Spring Training invite, is willing to take a shot on a unique talent set to see if it might translate.


So convinced he gave him a minor league contract. A skill set of maybe being able to hit left handed pitching is a very limited role as a pinch hitter. A AA player to use in the minor leagues to help your team win is more his use.

#11 tobi0040

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Posted 29 January 2014 - 02:10 PM

A Korean source says that Suk Min Yoon is reportedly very close to signing a deal, with the Red Sox and the Twins in the lead for his sevices. The deal is being estimated to be worth around 2/$10M.


Here is the issue for me. Instead of having Yoon at 2/10, Correa at 2/10, and Pelfrey at 2/12, why not have one good pitcher at $16M a year?

Bartolo Colon signed a 2/20 deal. Garza would be less annually, although more in years. But if we have $5-$10M every year in these flier type deals, it is the same as signing Colon or Garza once.

The Correa deal worked out in year 1, but anyone that wants to talk about how great that deal was.....I raise you Ramon Ortiz, Sidney Ponson, the deal that Baker turned down from us last year, Pelfrey last year, Livan Hernandez, etc.

#12 nicksaviking

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Posted 29 January 2014 - 02:25 PM

Here is the issue for me. Instead of having Yoon at 2/10, Correa at 2/10, and Pelfrey at 2/12, why not have one good pitcher at $16M a year?

Bartolo Colon signed a 2/20 deal. Garza would be less annually, although more in years. But if we have $5-$10M every year in these flier type deals, it is the same as signing Colon or Garza once.

The Correa deal worked out in year 1, but anyone that wants to talk about how great that deal was.....I raise you Ramon Ortiz, Sidney Ponson, the deal that Baker turned down from us last year, Pelfrey last year, Livan Hernandez, etc.


I didn't like the Correia deal and 2/10 is too much for Yoon. I also wasn't a fan of the Pelfrey deal, however the difference is that this year these were the number 4-5 type deals as opposed to past years where these signings were supposed to anchor the rotation.

Also I want nothing to do with Bartolo Colon away for two years away from the gigantic Oakland Coliseum. The Mets will be trying to dump him by June.

#13 tobi0040

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Posted 29 January 2014 - 03:20 PM

I didn't like the Correia deal and 2/10 is too much for Yoon. I also wasn't a fan of the Pelfrey deal, however the difference is that this year these were the number 4-5 type deals as opposed to past years where these signings were supposed to anchor the rotation.

Also I want nothing to do with Bartolo Colon away for two years away from the gigantic Oakland Coliseum. The Mets will be trying to dump him by June.


Colon on the road in the last two years:

2012: 3.27 ERA in 89 IP (3.54 at home)
2013: 2.73 ERA in 63 IP (2.58 at home)

#14 JP3700

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Posted 29 January 2014 - 03:23 PM

Also I want nothing to do with Bartolo Colon away for two years away from the gigantic Oakland Coliseum. The Mets will be trying to dump him by June.


Colon last two years:

Home: 3.03 ERA
Away: 2.95 ERA

He's also going to the NL, another pitcher friendly park and will have three center fielders roaming the outfield. He's old and is due for some regression to the mean, but I doubt the Mets will be trying to dump him by June.

Edit: Sorry for the double post on the stats. Tobi posted a few minutes before me.

#15 jokin

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Posted 29 January 2014 - 07:10 PM

So convinced he gave him a minor league contract. A skill set of maybe being able to hit left handed pitching is a very limited role as a pinch hitter. A AA player to use in the minor leagues to help your team win is more his use.


Waring got the contract that his career and skills merited. The spring training invite probably helped nudge Waring towards signing with the Twins. A unique skill set might accomplish on the cheap what would cost a small fortune for a proven major leaguer. Classic Terry Ryan bargain-seeking- the odds are against it working out, but costs little to find out.

#16 jokin

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Posted 29 January 2014 - 07:11 PM

Here is the issue for me. Instead of having Yoon at 2/10, Correa at 2/10, and Pelfrey at 2/12, why not have one good pitcher at $16M a year?

Bartolo Colon signed a 2/20 deal. Garza would be less annually, although more in years. But if we have $5-$10M every year in these flier type deals, it is the same as signing Colon or Garza once.

The Correa deal worked out in year 1, but anyone that wants to talk about how great that deal was.....I raise you Ramon Ortiz, Sidney Ponson, the deal that Baker turned down from us last year, Pelfrey last year, Livan Hernandez, etc.


Excellent points. But this quantity over quality is exactly the way that Terry rebuilt the bullpen, seemingly to spread the risk around with his available dollars.

#17 jokin

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Posted 29 January 2014 - 11:13 PM

With the Twins apparently satisfied in only "monitoring" the Yoon situation, it sounds like the Indians are closing in on landing a deal as of 10PM CST:

Although the Indians weren’t able to meet Yoon’s asking price (the standard among Boras’ clients) in earlier meetings, all indications are that the two sides have made progress in recent days.

With the Indians likely losing Ubaldo Jimenez to free agency and in desperate need of rotation depth, it looks like the organization is making a push to sign Yoon before he finds greener pastures elsewhere. We should have a resolution on where he’ll pitch next season in the coming days, but it seems like Cleveland could be his likely destination.


http://outsidepitchm...to-the-indians/

#18 The Wise One

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Posted 30 January 2014 - 07:24 AM

Waring got the contract that his career and skills merited. The spring training invite probably helped nudge Waring towards signing with the Twins. A unique skill set might accomplish on the cheap what would cost a small fortune for a proven major leaguer. Classic Terry Ryan bargain-seeking- the odds are against it working out, but costs little to find out.


As yoour guy was considered a poor man's Mark Reynolds how apt is it that Reyolds was signed to a minor league contract with a 2 million salary if he makes the club. So by major league standards for a veteran player who hit 21 HR last year it indeed is a small fortune. A very small ammount compared to the usual fortune made for power hitting.

#19 Linus

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Posted 30 January 2014 - 08:40 AM

Right handed platoon guys are not that valuable due to the relatively fewer left handed starters. Now if you can find a guy that kills right handed pitching, you have the basis for an effective platoon situation. That's why Plouffe really needs to pick it up - the fact that he kills left handers is not going to keep him in the majors unless he becomes an absolute defensive whiz. See Danny Valencia.

#20 tobi0040

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Posted 30 January 2014 - 09:26 AM

Excellent points. But this quantity over quality is exactly the way that Terry rebuilt the bullpen, seemingly to spread the risk around with his available dollars.


I think the rotation and pen are a difficult comparison. You can typically take 2-3 guys that bounce around each year, 3 current players on your team, and 6-7 prospects to duke it out for the six bullpen spots. Most of these guys are making $500K a year and you are only asking for 50-70 innings out of each, often situational. Rotation guys make more and are asked to pitch 160-200 innings. I guess what I am trying to say is it is easier and cheaper to patch together a bullpen.

Last year is a perfect example, we were not lacking quantity, but quality.

#21 jokin

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Posted 02 February 2014 - 08:05 PM

I think the rotation and pen are a difficult comparison. You can typically take 2-3 guys that bounce around each year, 3 current players on your team, and 6-7 prospects to duke it out for the six bullpen spots. Most of these guys are making $500K a year and you are only asking for 50-70 innings out of each, often situational. Rotation guys make more and are asked to pitch 160-200 innings. I guess what I am trying to say is it is easier and cheaper to patch together a bullpen.

Last year is a perfect example, we were not lacking quantity, but quality.


I agree, and in this instance, this is why I find Ryan's methodology somewhat flawed in pursuing his quantity theory, particularly when he was seemingly bidding up the price against himself to ink Pelfrey- particularly with so many other better (and sometimes even cheaper) options available-

who wouldn't take Garza instead of Pelfrey, if there were that many available excess dollars to be spent in trying to sign both?-

it's now pretty obvious that a slightly more agressive stance in pursuit of quality would have strengthened the rotation significantly.

Edited by jokin, 02 February 2014 - 08:31 PM.


#22 jokin

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Posted 02 February 2014 - 08:27 PM

Sounds like the Twins are fading on Yoon, unless they are somehow one of the 2 teams allegedly still talking with Boras:

"Suk-Min Yoon held a workout on the campus of UC-Irvine Friday attended by the Giants and Orioles, per a report from SBS (h/t Dan Kurtz of MyKBO.net). Earlier this week, it was reported four clubs had extended offers to the Korean right-hander.....

with negotiations underway with two of those teams.

The Twins, Red Sox, and Indians have been linked to Yoon this offseason with varying degrees of interest."


http://www.mykbo.net...randomkbonews-1

That statement is slightly contradicted with this three-day earlier statement, that indicates the Twins are one of those teams likely priced out of the hunt:

Minnesota sports reporter, Darren Wolfson, suggested 2-years for $10 million to a Twins official about Yoon Suk-min and was quickly told that'd be too high Twitter
Yoon Suk-min: Boras says Red Sox are one of 'many teams' interested per @nickcafardo, Indians checked in but said too much $ per @hoynsie


http://www.mykbo.net...randomkbonews-1

Boras had made it known a few days ago that Yoon would probably have a deal by the end of this coming week, thus, it's difficult to imagine that the Orioles and Giants were visiting for any reason other than a dog and pony show.

#23 jokin

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Posted 12 February 2014 - 05:05 PM

Maybe the Twins will get another shot at Yoon when the Orioles void his contract?:

Posted Image

Edited by jokin, 12 February 2014 - 06:07 PM.