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Brayan Villareal DFAd

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#1 jokin

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Posted 22 January 2014 - 09:37 PM

With Grady Sizemore signing with the Red Sox, Brayan Villareal has been DFA'd by the Sox. The righty reliever is coming off of a thumb injury and a big trade from the Tigers during the 2013, rendering the season as pretty much a lost year for Villareal. The guy was coming off of a monster first full major league season in 2012 for Detroit, with 10.9 K/9 and only 6.3 H/9.

Given that this was only a thumb injury and that he still likely can bring it at up to 99 MPH. what does everybody think about the Twins working out a deal?

Oh yeah, he still will be working for around the minimum (~$500,000), begins Arb in 2015.

#2 Thrylos

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Posted 22 January 2014 - 09:50 PM

There is a good reason for a 27 year old pitcher to have less than 75 MLB innings. Villareal is an one (and a half) pitch pony. FB (and slider occasionally) And he can control his FB as former Twins' Juan Morillo and Jim Hoey could. And their fastballs were even faster...

just sayin'
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#3 Danchat

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Posted 22 January 2014 - 10:11 PM

We have enough mediocrity at SP. Adding to what Thrylos said he's also nursing an injury.
There's no way I touch this guy.

#4 jokin

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Posted 22 January 2014 - 10:13 PM

There is a good reason for a 27 year old pitcher to have less than 75 MLB innings. Villareal is an one (and a half) pitch pony. FB (and slider occasionally) And he can control his FB as former Twins' Juan Morillo and Jim Hoey could. And their fastballs were even faster...

just sayin'


Except Villareal has something neither of your other two examples posesses, his one year of full season ball produced an ERA+ of 162 as a very decent set-up guy for the Tigers.

Seems like a much better risk picking him up as a DFA- than trading away a future 2-time Gold Glove and slugging Shortstop for a guy who still hasn't proven anything.

#5 snepp

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Posted 22 January 2014 - 10:25 PM

Morillo and Hoey aren't particularly good statistical comps.
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#6 snepp

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Posted 22 January 2014 - 10:26 PM

Except Villareal has something neither of your other two examples posesses, his one year of full season ball produced an ERA+ of 162 as a very decent set-up guy for the Tigers.


Throw in a much better minor league track record for good measure.
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#7 johnnydakota

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Posted 22 January 2014 - 10:53 PM

ok So first people say we cant afford Tanaka, spending like that is crazy , now people say signing a lower tier player makes no sense cause he isnt worth the leaque minimum?
If he isint back he can go to AAA , if he makes the pen , then we have an asset that allows us to maybe trade another player or 2 , to help the offense or to add a prospect to help the future

#8 SpiritofVodkaDave

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Posted 22 January 2014 - 11:07 PM

Meh, color me unimpressed with his numbers than a somewhat fluky looking 2012. I'm not sure who I would prefer he replace in the current pen, which is stacked, nor would I want him taking a spot from a guy like DeDuno/Diamond who potentially could be stashed and counted on starting down the road.

#9 jokin

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Posted 22 January 2014 - 11:11 PM

We have enough mediocrity at SP. Adding to what Thrylos said he's also nursing an injury.
There's no way I touch this guy.


There is a good reason for a 27 year old pitcher to have less than 75 MLB innings. Villareal is an one (and a half) pitch pony. FB (and slider occasionally) And he can control his FB as former Twins' Juan Morillo and Jim Hoey could. And their fastballs were even faster...

just sayin'


Villareal is strictly a RP as a major-leaguer, not an SP. And there's virtually no risk in seeing what he brings to the table.

And that age number didn't seem right, Villareal actually doesn't turn 27 until mid-May. His first big league taste was in his 5th pro year in April of 2011, at age 23.

Edited by jokin, 22 January 2014 - 11:15 PM.


#10 snepp

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Posted 22 January 2014 - 11:20 PM

A potential power arm for the pen at nearly no cost?

If it means fewer innings for next year's version of Josh Roenicke I'm all for it.


edit: hmmm, I guess it's about time to start referring to things as "this" year's isn't it?

Edited by snepp, 22 January 2014 - 11:31 PM.

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#11 johnnydakota

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Posted 22 January 2014 - 11:26 PM

So who replaces Burton or Fien if they struggle?
Having options is a bad thing?
Last year it sure would have been nice to have an
additional option in center field , Me thinks.

#12 SpiritofVodkaDave

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Posted 22 January 2014 - 11:33 PM

So who replaces Burton or Fien if they struggle?
Having options is a bad thing?
Last year it sure would have been nice to have an
additional option in center field , Me thinks.


Again, meh. His overall ML numbers have him as a 4.59 ERA guy, and in 3 seasons in AAA his ERA was 3.91 and his k:bb ratio was pretty....bad. Nothing he has done in either AAA or MLB indicates he isn't going to walk a ton of guys, sure I guess it can't hurt to sign him and stash him in the minors or whatever, but I think the Twins prob would be better served giving playing time to a youngster with upside if/when Burton/Fien etc etc falter.

#13 jorgenswest

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Posted 22 January 2014 - 11:39 PM

The Red Sox will likely find someone to make a deal. They may only get offers of other players in the similar position of being out of options on the fringe of a roster. Should the a Twins offer Worley, Diamond or Deduno? Escobar? I wouldn't. They have enough depth at reliever.

As teams make roster moves in the spring getting to the 25 man roster, I can envision one of the pitchers going for an out of options 4th OF/CF.

#14 jokin

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Posted 22 January 2014 - 11:51 PM

The Red Sox will likely find someone to make a deal. They may only get offers of other players in the similar position of being out of options on the fringe of a roster. Should the a Twins offer Worley, Diamond or Deduno? Escobar? I wouldn't. They have enough depth at reliever.

As teams make roster moves in the spring getting to the 25 man roster, I can envision one of the pitchers going for an out of options 4th OF/CF.


If I recall correctly, the Red Sox somehow found the need for kicking the tires on Danny Valencia, yielding the Twins Jeremias Pineda. I can easily envision a return type of trade for Villareal, with the Twins giving up someone as inconsequential and buried deep in the depth chart as Pineda was to the Sox.

Edited by jokin, 23 January 2014 - 12:46 AM.


#15 Otwins

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Posted 23 January 2014 - 12:11 AM

Caught my eye on MLB site. Count me in. We will have an open spot on the 40 man if Albers goes to Korea. We may even get the $500K to give Villareal

#16 jokin

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Posted 23 January 2014 - 12:37 AM

So who replaces Burton or Fien if they struggle?
Having options is a bad thing?
Last year it sure would have been nice to have an
additional option in center field , Me thinks.



Fien and Burton already had some noticeable warning flags in 2013 as they neared reaching age 30 and 33:

Fien
2012 ERA+: 201 2013 ERA+: 104
2012 ERA: 2.06 2013 ERA: 3.92 Oliver 2014 projection: 3.62

Burton
2012 ERA+: 189 2013 ERA+: 106
2012 ERA: 2.18 2013 ERA: 3.82 Oliver 2014 projection: 3.67

I think they'll still be fine in 2014, but what's wrong with having another RHP option that can throw it at 97 MPH?- with nearly a career K% of 33% against righty bats, I might add- and mix it up with the 91 MPH that Fien and Burton throw?


This is not a perfect comparison with Villareal whatsoever (Fien came through the college ranks and had his own injury issues).....but, FWIW......Casey Fien's major league numbers before becoming a Twin at age 28:

2 years (ages 25 and 26)
Innings Pitched: 14
ERA+: 56
ERA: 9.69
H/9: 10.9
K/9: 6.25

Seems like Villareal is a buy-low candidate much like Fien was 2 years ago, only going in to a deal, Villareal actually has one sterling major league season under his belt and has a thumb injury, not an arm injury.

Edited by jokin, 23 January 2014 - 12:49 AM.


#17 twinsnorth49

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Posted 23 January 2014 - 12:40 AM

Reasonable opportunity, no downside really.

#18 Reider

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Posted 23 January 2014 - 01:50 AM

Reasonable opportunity, no downside really.

This is how I feel as well. I'd like to see the Twins sign Garza, but it wouldn't be a huge risk to give this guy an opportunity if it's the route the Twins want to go.

#19 beckmt

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Posted 23 January 2014 - 06:20 AM

Having too much pitching should not be an issue, you can always use it or trade it Worth the chance for minimal investmen

#20 Thrylos

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Posted 23 January 2014 - 07:33 AM

Fien and Burton already had some noticeable warning flags in 2013 as they neared reaching age 30 and 33.


Agreed. And I think that the Twins should have sold high of Fien. They still maybe can. But there are still enough arms internally to replace Fien, Tonkin for example, who is also a fireballer but probably more sure thing than Villareal for a late inning option. Also, they will need space for some of the pitchers who will not make the rotation. Zach Jones is next on line as well.

Now, if you offer him a MiLB contract and he accepts, there is no harm in stashing him in Rochester to begin the season...
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#21 johnnydakota

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Posted 23 January 2014 - 07:33 AM

Again, meh. His overall ML numbers have him as a 4.59 ERA guy, and in 3 seasons in AAA his ERA was 3.91 and his k:bb ratio was pretty....bad. Nothing he has done in either AAA or MLB indicates he isn't going to walk a ton of guys, sure I guess it can't hurt to sign him and stash him in the minors or whatever, but I think the Twins prob would be better served giving playing time to a youngster with upside if/when Burton/Fien etc etc falter.


Well as long as we have a plan A,B,C,and D....Just dont want to get caught with our pants down again this year

#22 savvyspy

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Posted 23 January 2014 - 07:48 AM

Meh, color me unimpressed with his numbers than a somewhat fluky looking 2012. I'm not sure who I would prefer he replace in the current pen, which is stacked, nor would I want him taking a spot from a guy like DeDuno/Diamond who potentially could be stashed and counted on starting down the road.


Stacked bullpen?? The Twins bullpen is basically league average. I think there is a misconception they are "stacked" because the starting pitching has been historically awful, their defense is atrocious, and they have a Bottom 5 offense.


The real answer to the question of who Villareal could replace is anyone except Perkins.

#23 SpiritofVodkaDave

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Posted 23 January 2014 - 08:39 AM

Well as long as we have a plan A,B,C,and D....Just dont want to get caught with our pants down again this year


They have guys like Jones, Tonkin etc who I think deserve a chance prior to Villareal, additionally I think you have to have one spot open for Diamond/DeDuno etc as well to at least start the season.

If you can stash him in the minors, then no harm no foul, but I don't think they need to give a guy like him a spot in the rotation.

Right now the way I see the pen-
1. Perkins
2. Burton
3. Fien
4. Duesing
5. Swarzak
6. Diamond/DeDuno/Worley
7. Theilbar

IMO are all locks due to either success: Burton/Perkins/Theilbar/Fien/Swarzak or contract/need for roster space: Duensing/Diamond etc

After that you have to imagine Tonkin has to be the next in line (if he doesn't crack the pen out of ST), followed by Jones and possibly even Dakota Watts. Additionally, I think the Twins need to go down to a 6 man pen at some point as well, especially once Sano and some of the other youngsters force their way onto the roster.

#24 mike wants wins

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Posted 23 January 2014 - 09:46 AM

I'd much rather have Tonkin, but that's because I believe he's a better pitcher than Fien, and he's younger, and it is time to build for the future.....as for the guy who is available, if he'll sign a minor league deal, what is the downside? Rolling the dice is what a team that won't sign the most expensive FAs needs to do.
Lighten up Francis....

#25 SpiritofVodkaDave

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Posted 23 January 2014 - 09:54 AM

I'd much rather have Tonkin, but that's because I believe he's a better pitcher than Fien, and he's younger, and it is time to build for the future.....as for the guy who is available, if he'll sign a minor league deal, what is the downside? Rolling the dice is what a team that won't sign the most expensive FAs needs to do.


Not sure why people would want to get rid of Fien, who had a 10.2/1.5 k/BB ratio last year....which is fantastic and a whip of 1.016. He just had an unlucky year with a low strand rate, his xFIP clocked in at 2.71 which is damn nice for a RP

#26 mike wants wins

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Posted 23 January 2014 - 10:22 AM

for me? It is about using your assets the best possible. A team that keeps their budget in check should not be spending hardly any money on the bullpen. And, Tonkin is cheaper and younger. But really, it is a nit. My post was more about rolling the dice, and I should have started with that part.
Lighten up Francis....

#27 nicksaviking

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Posted 23 January 2014 - 10:29 AM

The Twins currently do have some good pieces in the pen, which is all the more reason to flip some of them for non-40 man prospects.

#28 johnnydakota

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Posted 23 January 2014 - 10:45 AM

Again, meh. His overall ML numbers have him as a 4.59 ERA guy, and in 3 seasons in AAA his ERA was 3.91 and his k:bb ratio was pretty....bad. Nothing he has done in either AAA or MLB indicates he isn't going to walk a ton of guys, sure I guess it can't hurt to sign him and stash him in the minors or whatever, but I think the Twins prob would be better served giving playing time to a youngster with upside if/when Burton/Fien etc etc falter.



Gee 4.59 career ERA is about the same as Hughes and Pelfrey right?
I understand we want a better option, but if there isint any , why not do like we did last year with a couple pitcher who didnt make it out of the minors, I already forgot the starters name , but the lefty perez, was the other.To me there is not a problem dumpster diving , as long as it isnt the only avenue of getting players

#29 johnnydakota

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Posted 23 January 2014 - 10:48 AM

Not sure why people would want to get rid of Fien, who had a 10.2/1.5 k/BB ratio last year....which is fantastic and a whip of 1.016. He just had an unlucky year with a low strand rate, his xFIP clocked in at 2.71 which is damn nice for a RP


I didnt say get rid of Fien, but last year we saw them both struggle at times(Burton and Fien), and if we can find a couple of relievers who are just as good and cheaper, then we have tradable assets,Right?
to me this offense is not good, and the defense is just as bad in some areas, and we could use a Garza type starter, so like last year why not trade from our strength?