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Brian Duensing for OF help

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11 replies to this topic

#1 darin617

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Posted 24 December 2013 - 08:15 PM

With the market the way it is for set up men the Twins would be wise to use their depth of left handed relief pitchers to upgrade either the outfield or infield. Brian Duensing obviously has the most value of pitchers that should be made available. Diamond has no value and might be able to stick in the pen.

#2 Willihammer

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Posted 24 December 2013 - 08:29 PM

Considering Jose Mijares is still without a job, I can't imagine there would be a tuen of demand for Duensing's services.

#3 diehardtwinsfan

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Posted 24 December 2013 - 08:30 PM

Honestly, I consider 2014 to be a transition year. With the improvements, the Twins should be much more palatable to watch and could possibly play the role of spoiler next season. With that in mind, I don't think I trade Duensing or any other reliever for an OF. I think I trade those guys for more prospects.

#4 kab21

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Posted 25 December 2013 - 06:27 AM

How exactly do we figure that Duensing has trade value? He's posted ERA's of 5, 5 and 4 the last 3 years. He's a mediocre loogy at best. His trade value is somewhere between Mastro and Presley but that's only if you can find a team that matches up.

#5 SpiritofVodkaDave

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Posted 26 December 2013 - 11:28 AM

I would argue that Duensing may not even be worth tendering a contract to at this point.

#6 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 26 December 2013 - 11:33 AM

I would argue that Duensing may not even be worth tendering a contract to at this point.


I disagree. Brian Duensing was a pretty good pitcher last year and given the Twins financial constraints (or lack thereof), he's worth another look.

Last year, Duensing posted career highs in swinging strikes, first pitch strikes, K%, and was unlucky with BABIP (.340-ish). His FIP was a respectable 3.24.

If he can maintain those peripherals, he's a good option out of the pen.

#7 cmathewson

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Posted 26 December 2013 - 11:58 AM

Left handed bullpen help is really valuable, but it's hard to get anything for it, unless it's a dominant guy who can close, like Perkins.

The reason is, the bullpen is where failed starters go to save their careers, so there's a lot of them hanging around. A lot of their success or failure hinges on the way they're used and luck. So their careers tend to go through a lot of ups and downs, with teams overusing them and ultimately giving up on them, other teams picking them up and making it work, and around and around they go... I'm surprised Mijares is still out there. I'm sure he'll find a team and, if they use him right, he'll do well.

Anyway, we know how to use Duensing to get maximum value out of him. For that reason, he's probably more valuable to us than any other team.
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#8 kab21

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Posted 26 December 2013 - 05:17 PM

I disagree. Brian Duensing was a pretty good pitcher last year and given the Twins financial constraints (or lack thereof), he's worth another look.

Last year, Duensing posted career highs in swinging strikes, first pitch strikes, K%, and was unlucky with BABIP (.340-ish). His FIP was a respectable 3.24.

If he can maintain those peripherals, he's a good option out of the pen.


I agree that you tender a contract but the fact that it is debatable should illustrate just how low his trade value is.

FWIW - unlucky BAPIP and lucky HR rate balance out the luck equation.

#9 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 26 December 2013 - 05:29 PM

I agree that you tender a contract but the fact that it is debatable should illustrate just how low his trade value is.

FWIW - unlucky BAPIP and lucky HR rate balance out the luck equation.


Oh, his trade value is very low. That shouldn't even be in question.

#10 Shane Wahl

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Posted 26 December 2013 - 09:05 PM

Duensing can make his trade value much higher by the deadline, that is for certain. At that point, I would like a Butera/Doumit scenario return.

#11 DocBauer

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Posted 26 December 2013 - 09:38 PM

I disagree. Brian Duensing was a pretty good pitcher last year and given the Twins financial constraints (or lack thereof), he's worth another look.

Last year, Duensing posted career highs in swinging strikes, first pitch strikes, K%, and was unlucky with BABIP (.340-ish). His FIP was a respectable 3.24.

If he can maintain those peripherals, he's a good option out of the pen.


Going to agree with Brock on this one. There has been some pretty strong debate on here as to how the Twins bullpen ranks in MLB and the AL. I am on the side of a versatile and quality pen when you factor in wins, saves, ERA, IP, etc, etc. Especially when you consider how taxed our pen was. And Duensing, used properly, is a part of that. A cursory glance shows his career numbers better as a reliever. I have always believed some of his problems, when not ON, have been caused by being moved around too much. Which is rather odd when you consider the Twins have usually done a pretty good job over the years of defining rolls for their relievers.

Duensing's stuff is not bad at all, but a little short for over-exposure, as a starter or too many RH's faced as a reliever. I believe given a roll in the pen and allowed to stick to it, he's pretty effective and worth holding on to for at least one more season.

I prefer a known quantity for now that is still very cost effective. I know our pen has "potential" depth from both sides, and have stated this myself. But I think it's misguided to automatically assume said potential depth can just be plugged in arbitrarily and expect instant results. I do believe there are relievers and questionable back end starters that could find their way to be very good relievers, Albers as an example, but give me the known factor for now as we strive to put this back to respectability.

#12 jorgenswest

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Posted 27 December 2013 - 12:01 AM

There were 58 left handed relievers that pitched at least 30 games in the majors last year. I took out pitchers with double digit saves to get to the 58. I didn't think comparing Duensing to a closer was a fair comparison.

Of the 58, Duensing ranked in the bottom half in several varied measures like ERA+, K/9, BB/9, OPS+, WAR, RE24

It doesn't seem like there would be very much demand for performance at that level. A contending team should seek a better pitcher. A developing team would be wise to look for a younger long term solution. The Twins might be better off nontendering and looking for a younger long term solution.

However, I think they should tender him and seek better solution. Take him to arbitration as long as they are willing to release him and eat the 2 million as soon as a better long term solution is on the roster.

Note:I used baseball reference's play index to find and sort the data.

Edited by jorgenswest, 27 December 2013 - 12:09 AM.