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Article: 2014 Offseason Minnesota Twins Top 40 Prospect Countdown: 1-5

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#1 Thrylos

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Posted 11 December 2013 - 08:23 PM

You can view the page at http://twinsdaily.co...t-countdown-1-5
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#2 drock2190

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Posted 11 December 2013 - 10:25 PM

Why did you mention Buxton's BABIP when you fail to mention Sano's? His BABIP of .397 was nearly identical to Buxton's at the same stop (Fort Myers).

Buxton's BABIP is more sustainable then Sano's because he's super fast and can beat out infield hits. Both are great prospects though.

#3 Thrylos

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Posted 12 December 2013 - 08:23 AM

Hitters' BABIPs are to be compared only to themselves, and unlike pitchers', which should be around .290, depending on who you are talking to, they are all over the map depending on the hitter. I compared Buxton's 2013 BABIP to his 2012 BABIP. Would be meaningless to compare to Sano's. Yes, they are great prospects. Top 5 in baseball as a matter of fact

#4 Willihammer

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Posted 12 December 2013 - 09:04 AM

Remember that HRs aren't included in BABIP

[attachment=1115:3796.attach]

And since roughly 1/4 of Sano's hits have left the park, his BABIP takes a hit (this is partially offset by striking out more though - 31% to 22%).

If you include HR's as "in play," the BABIP's are:

Buxton: .421
Sano: .407

IMO the whole Cedar Rapids-Mike Trout comps have unfailrly raised expectations for Buxton. Trout has exceeded the highest possible expectations. You could take all the speed out of Trout's game at this point and he'd still be a top 10 hitter. IMO its probably unlikely that Buxton ever becomes that good of a hitter (especially on Trout's timetable).

On the other hand, Sano's going to pound MLB pitching, its only a question of at what rate. Will he be a Chris Carter or mature into a selective, high OBP guy like Cabrera to go with the power, or something in between.

Edited by Willihammer, 15 December 2013 - 11:07 AM.


#5 Thrylos

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Posted 12 December 2013 - 09:25 AM

IMO the whole Cedar Rapids-Mike Trout comps have unfailrly raised expectations for Buxton. Trout has exceeded the highest possible expectations. You could take all the speed out of Trout's game at this point and he'd still be a top 10 hitter. IMO its probably unlikely that Buxton ever becomes that good of a hitter (especially on Trout's timetable).

On the other hand, Sano's going to pound MLB pitching, its only a question of at what rate. Will he be a Chris Carter or mature into a selective, high OBP guy like Cabrera to go with the power, or something in between.


Speaking of selectivity, there is a measure that most people don't talk about these days for some reason, called isoD (and it is analogous to isoP) for isolated discipline and it is OBP-BA. Buxton, Sano and Trout's isoDs have been around .090 all their careers. Sano's got higher in New Britain, but I think it is a SSS glitch because the BA got lower. So, if these guys hit around .300, their OBP will likely approach .400
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#6 big dog

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Posted 12 December 2013 - 09:29 AM

Thanks for these rankings- very thoughtful and very interesting.

#7 TRex

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Posted 12 December 2013 - 09:34 AM

Thank you for these write-ups, Thrylos, I have really enjoyed them... you speak my language.

Just a nitpick, but remember that options are used to 'remove' someone from the 40-man roster, so calling up Sano in September will not 'use' an option unless you send him back down in September, which would be pointless. And I assume there will still be drek on the 40-man that can be removed in favor of a star prospect (or two, as I am hopeful Buxton also makes a September appearance).

#8 Thrylos

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Posted 12 December 2013 - 10:10 AM

Thank you for these write-ups, Thrylos, I have really enjoyed them... you speak my language.

Just a nitpick, but remember that options are used to 'remove' someone from the 40-man roster, so calling up Sano in September will not 'use' an option unless you send him back down in September, which would be pointless. And I assume there will still be drek on the 40-man that can be removed in favor of a star prospect (or two, as I am hopeful Buxton also makes a September appearance).


Thanks, it was fun.

Agreed with the options (other than the fact that used to remove someone from the 25-man, and needs to be on the 40 man). Did I indicate otherwise? I just don't think that Buxton (especially, because Sano would need to be added to the 40 man roster before the 2014 Rule 5 draft) would be added to the 40-man roster, unless he can contribute and the Twins would need him to contribute (i.e. if they are competing.) The might want to save that roster spot for someone else before that Rule 5 draft.
Not a matter of options
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#9 Shane Wahl

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Posted 12 December 2013 - 01:31 PM

Other than the Buxton/Sano switch, I like this top five.

#10 VandyTwinsFan

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Posted 12 December 2013 - 02:09 PM

I think the value of defense is a large reason why most people have Buxton ahead of Sano. Buxton has the potential to be a golden glove CF, while Sano could be a decent defensive 3B. I think that "small" difference tends to represent the idea that while Sano may be more feared in the batter's box, Buxton will provide more overall value to a team. However, that's just my take on other people's opinions.
Also, the wRC+ comparison is quite an interesting one to see. It makes me even more excited for Sano than I was before. I keep forgetting how young he really is. He just looks older because he's so big. I'll have to keep an eye out for more of your writing. Nice work!

#11 Thrylos

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Posted 12 December 2013 - 02:33 PM

Other than the Buxton/Sano switch, I like this top five.


You might find this interesting: I asked someone who watched (and broadcasted) every single game of both Sano's and Buxton's at Fort Myers this season to validate the Sano over Buxton, and here is this discussion.

These guys are very close. A jump of power by Buxton or continuation of dominance in New Britain might switch the rankings for me. And since age is a wash (Sano is 7 months older, but half a level ahead), I'd go with the higher production guy at this point.
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#12 Shane Wahl

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Posted 12 December 2013 - 02:54 PM

Thrylos, I honestly don't really have a problem with flipping those two. I get the point. They are top 3 prospects OVERALL in baseball. That discussion was interesting. If Sano just harnesses his skills at fielding the ball, he could amount to an average or above average defender there.

#13 Monkeypaws

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Posted 13 December 2013 - 09:35 AM

Regardless of ranking, that is one nice top 5. (I think/hope Stewart will be the best of the bunch)

#14 twinsfan34

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Posted 16 December 2013 - 07:47 PM

x<3.8 seconds to first base can definitely help one's BABIP.

#15 Thrylos

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Posted 16 December 2013 - 07:55 PM

x<3.8 seconds to first base can definitely help one's BABIP.


Did not in 2012
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#16 twinsfan34

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Posted 17 December 2013 - 10:59 AM

Did not in 2012


Data sample was too small.

#17 twinsfan34

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Posted 17 December 2013 - 11:13 AM

Did not in 2012


..."can" help...was the word I used. As opposed to someone else slower.

We'd have to find something with balls hit in the IF and his AVG there versus the league average. Would be best weighted if we knew speed of each player relative to the average attained. if you're wanting something exact.

His BABIP is definitely high, but it's not that high for someone with his K% and HR%.

Mike Trout his .420 BABIP at A-ball. He's at .366 in MLB now.

Paul Goldschmidt hit .385 in A+, he's a .340 guy in MLB. Add the HRs and his BABIP would be even higher.

#18 twinsfan34

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Posted 17 December 2013 - 11:15 AM

Did not in 2012


But yes, you're right - his BABIP and his AVG were definitely lower in 2012.