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Heyman: Twins have 4 starting pitchers on their list

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#1 Parker Hageman

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Posted 11 December 2013 - 10:25 AM

According to a Jon Heyman tweet this morning, the Twins have four free agent starting pitchers they are looking at: Matt Garza, Bronson Arroyo, Mike Pelfrey and (new entrant) Bartolo Colon.

We have been away of the Garza, Arroyo and Pelfrey interest for a while.

Nick Nelson
wrote today about Arroyo, speculating the organization's need to replace the Carl Pavano void. I analyzed why the Twins may still be interested in Mike Pelfrey despite the poor overall numbers. Undoubtedly, at some point here, you will read a TwinsDaily.com take on the possibility of signing Garza.

The Colon interest is new. From the GM Handbook, here was my take on Colon's performance:

Who…what…how…why? Talk about a pitcher who has redefined himself after losing his elite stuff. In the twilight of his career, Colon has figured out how to work with an 89-mph fastball and keep opponents from teeing off on him. Is there an element of luck involved? Probably. His 80% left-on-base rate is well above his career norm and his home run rate is likely suppressed thanks to the O.co Coliseum. Nevertheless, he’s done well two years in a row. He works ahead of hitters and then gets them to hit his pitch, sort of the model of what Rick Anderson wants his staff to do.


So that's Colon in a nutshell. We also speculated that he would land a one-year, $12M deal.

When I tweeted the Heyman report out this morning, largely the response was people preferred Colon to Pelfrey. Overall, would you want Colon out of those four?

#2 Shane Wahl

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Posted 11 December 2013 - 10:31 AM

Colon has to want a contender. He would be nice no that one-year deal and then be trade bait at the deadline (with Correia).

#3 nicksaviking

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Posted 11 December 2013 - 10:39 AM

After Garza, it's tough to rank these guys. The Twins offered Pelfery 2 years but he clearly either wants more years or money. Colon on a one year deal would be boring but acceptable, but the trouble is he wants two years. I don't trust Arroyo to be productive much longer but two years isn't a huge risk. The problem here is that reports say he will be getting three years from whomever signs him.

I'd be OK with these pitchers under these circumstances:

Garza: 4-5 years at fairly ugly money but not as ugly as it may have looked at the outset
Pelfrey: 2 years at cheap money with an eye on moving him this time next year
Colon: 1 year and move him at the deadline if the Twins are not competitive
Arroyo: 2 years and hold your nose at the likely unmovable $13 million he will cost in 2015

Strangely, only the Garza scenario seems likely at this point. I really don't want the Twins to give extra years to guys who don't look to have extra years left in the tank.

Edited by nicksaviking, 11 December 2013 - 10:42 AM.


#4 JB_Iowa

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Posted 11 December 2013 - 10:44 AM

Didn't know where else to add this so I'll post it here:



8:02 AM - 11 Dec 13 ·

Does this mean that the Tanaka posting decision is likely to be announced in the next day or two now that mlb has approved the system?

Has Team Garza just decided not to worry about the Tanaka situation (which looks like it may drag on). Some pressure to just get a deal done?









#5 Brandon

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Posted 11 December 2013 - 10:44 AM

Seeing the 4 pitchers on the list makes signing Pelfry a disappointment as I have him ranked as the 4th best starter in the group.

#6 Marta Shearing

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Posted 11 December 2013 - 10:50 AM

Would just love to see them go all in on garza and call it an offseason.

#7 Winston Smith

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Posted 11 December 2013 - 10:50 AM

My guess Garza gets 4 yrs $60m with a 5th yr option and a $5m buyout. I think he'd be worth that $65 min and $75 max. His numbers don't equal more than that do they?
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#8 Briley

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Posted 11 December 2013 - 10:54 AM

Seeing the 4 pitchers on the list makes signing Pelfry a disappointment as I have him ranked as the 4th best starter in the group.


Same. I'll take all the above before Pelfrey, if for no other reason than to not have to wait 2 days between each pitch.

In the longterm, Colon really wouldn't make much difference unless we flipped him at the deadline for something, so I suppose if they want to spend the money and have next year be less awful then go for it. But I guess I'm pretty neutral about it.
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#9 mikeee

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Posted 11 December 2013 - 10:55 AM

It sure is fun to follow all this! I find myself hitting the reload button a lot in my browser for the
latest news!

#10 Smcginnity

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Posted 11 December 2013 - 10:58 AM

So, is it out of the realm of possibility that the Twins go out and sign Garza and Arroyo and then trade Correia and Gibson for a big time bat (outfielder/shortstop/catcher/DH)?

#11 nicksaviking

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Posted 11 December 2013 - 11:07 AM

My guess Garza gets 4 yrs $60m with a 5th yr option and a $5m buyout. I think he'd be worth that $65 min and $75 max. His numbers don't equal more than that do they?


They probably don't but Nolasco and Hughes' numbers don't really equal what they got either. I'm really curious to find out what Garza gets, it wasn't long ago people assumed he would get Anibal Sanchez money. Now your figures seem more in line and I'd definately rather have Garza on that deal than Nolasco on his.

#12 diehardtwinsfan

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Posted 11 December 2013 - 11:14 AM

If they seriously want more pitching, it doesn't say much for their confidence in Gibson, Worley, Deduno, or Diamond. I would think Gibson and Worley should be first in line for another try, but adding more pitchers will make it difficult.

#13 twinsajsf

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Posted 11 December 2013 - 11:15 AM

Definitely looks like we are exhausting possibilities for a poor-man's ace/#2 before settling for Pelfrey, which is good. I can't believe it now looks like 3/$36 for Arroyo, according to latest reports, but Berardino also says the Twins view him in front of Nolasco in the rotation, so I suppose that fits. Garza at 4/$64, Arroyo at 3/$36 or Colon at 2/$24. Wow.

My guess is that unless Arizona can swing a trade for Price of Samardzija in the next 48 hrs., they will take Garza off the board. Likewise, I think Arroyo is using us to extract year 3 from the Reds, and he will ultimately sign there. And again, Colon wants to stay in Oakland, just waiting for the second year. I would take any of those three, in that order and at those lofty prices, before settling for Pelfrey, which unfortunately is the likeliest scenario.

#14 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 11 December 2013 - 11:18 AM

My guess Garza gets 4 yrs $60m with a 5th yr option and a $5m buyout. I think he'd be worth that $65 min and $75 max. His numbers don't equal more than that do they?


I think they do.

If you can get Matt Garza for four years and $60m, you make that deal all day and twice on Sundays.

#15 mike wants wins

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Posted 11 December 2013 - 11:22 AM

If they could land Garza or Tanaka, I'd be curious what their thought process is on spending all this money, only to have your OF be Wilingham, random AAAA player, Arcia and your DH be Doumit. There is no good reason to sign a SP to a 1-2 year deal, if you are not going to fix the offense also, unless your plan is to flip him.......
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#16 gunnarthor

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Posted 11 December 2013 - 11:24 AM

Obviously Garza is the best of the group but I don't want to give him Sanchez money. Frankly, I think I'd rather not sign a big contract now and see if next year (Bailey, Lester, Scherzer, Masterson) is a better time to do that. A year from now, we should have a better idea of Meyer, Gibson and May as future parts of the rotation. I like Hughes more than most. And Worley has to get another chance yet.

I think I'd prefer a short deal this year and hope for the bigger deal next year to fit in with the Buxton/Sano nucleus.

#17 twinscowboysbulls

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Posted 11 December 2013 - 11:39 AM

If they seriously want more pitching, it doesn't say much for their confidence in Gibson, Worley, Deduno, or Diamond. I would think Gibson and Worley should be first in line for another try, but adding more pitchers will make it difficult.


Love the idea of adding Garza for 4 years with option if it's under 75 million total. Colon is a great get on 1 year deal regardless of his 2014 performance. Arroyo is a nice move as long as it's 2 years. I really dislike the idea of bringing back Pelfrey, but would live with a 1 year deal, 2 year deal for him really makes me question the upside of giving him 2 years.

Adding one more SP really doesn't have much effect on this year's promising pitchers. If we have 4 set starters going into the year that is great. Gibson and Meyer both have things they can work on in AAA. Once they start dominating and we have no open rotation spots for them, that is a GREAT problem to have.

Now as for the other 3, that are all out of options. Here's my 25 cents.
#1 Worley- I think he is the one we should be wanting to keep the most. Probably has the best consistent stuff, when healthy. I think he should have the best shot at winning and KEEPING the 5th spot in the rotation. I believe the comments that he was out of shape and not healthy last year. Could be long man in pen if loses out to other guys for starting spot. This guy is young and controllable. Don't give up on him.

#2 Deduno- I like this guy, I really do. Electric stuff in comparison to other starters. He can't go to the pen. I think the Twins can find a way to buy more time for Worley by DL'ing Deduno to start the year. He had fairly serious surgery over the Winter, so it wouldn't raise any eyebrows. Heck, he might not even be ready by Opening Day regardless. If that happens, it probably buys Worley a month of starts to prove he is healthy and capable. If Worley fails, Deduno comes off DL to take his spot. If Deduno can't do it, hopefully Meyer or Gibson is ready in AAA (this would likely be June or July in the timeline.)

#3 Diamond- I don't think the Twins really are too worried about what happens with him. Should they be? I don't think so either. If he makes the bullpen, fine, if he doesn't win #5 spot, adios or Rochester, if he accepts. If Diamond wins the 5 spot, it means we have either given up on both the others or they have been DL'ed. If they were both on the DL to start the year, things would get quite tricky. Either way, I don't like Diamond to win rotation spot, more likely gone or bullpen IMO.

#18 Kwak

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Posted 11 December 2013 - 12:09 PM

I hope the priority is: 1) Garza 2) Garza 3) wait for next year and target someone better than Garza and pay the price for him!

#19 Joe A. Preusser

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Posted 11 December 2013 - 12:28 PM

If they could land Garza or Tanaka, I'd be curious what their thought process is on spending all this money, only to have your OF be Wilingham, random AAAA player, Arcia and your DH be Doumit. There is no good reason to sign a SP to a 1-2 year deal, if you are not going to fix the offense also, unless your plan is to flip him.......


By next year (2015) our outfield will likely consist of Buxton, Hicks, and Arcia/Pouffe/Parm/etc. We're spending "all this money" on contracts that run several years past that point. I agree adding an additional 1-2 year contract seems a poor choice, unless you want to establish a rapport with that player and extend him if/when he succeeds.

#20 Joe A. Preusser

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Posted 11 December 2013 - 12:36 PM

Love the idea of adding Garza for 4 years with option if it's under 75 million total. Colon is a great get on 1 year deal regardless of his 2014 performance. Arroyo is a nice move as long as it's 2 years. I really dislike the idea of bringing back Pelfrey, but would live with a 1 year deal, 2 year deal for him really makes me question the upside of giving him 2 years.

Adding one more SP really doesn't have much effect on this year's promising pitchers. If we have 4 set starters going into the year that is great. Gibson and Meyer both have things they can work on in AAA. Once they start dominating and we have no open rotation spots for them, that is a GREAT problem to have.

Now as for the other 3, that are all out of options. Here's my 25 cents.
#1 Worley- I think he is the one we should be wanting to keep the most. Probably has the best consistent stuff, when healthy. I think he should have the best shot at winning and KEEPING the 5th spot in the rotation. I believe the comments that he was out of shape and not healthy last year. Could be long man in pen if loses out to other guys for starting spot. This guy is young and controllable. Don't give up on him.

#2 Deduno- I like this guy, I really do. Electric stuff in comparison to other starters. He can't go to the pen. I think the Twins can find a way to buy more time for Worley by DL'ing Deduno to start the year. He had fairly serious surgery over the Winter, so it wouldn't raise any eyebrows. Heck, he might not even be ready by Opening Day regardless. If that happens, it probably buys Worley a month of starts to prove he is healthy and capable. If Worley fails, Deduno comes off DL to take his spot. If Deduno can't do it, hopefully Meyer or Gibson is ready in AAA (this would likely be June or July in the timeline.)

#3 Diamond- I don't think the Twins really are too worried about what happens with him. Should they be? I don't think so either. If he makes the bullpen, fine, if he doesn't win #5 spot, adios or Rochester, if he accepts. If Diamond wins the 5 spot, it means we have either given up on both the others or they have been DL'ed. If they were both on the DL to start the year, things would get quite tricky. Either way, I don't like Diamond to win rotation spot, more likely gone or bullpen IMO.


I liked Diamond in the pen until I looked at his splits. As much as I enjoyed his nice 2012 I really think he's gone.

I look at it this way. There is a lot to like about Worley and Deduno. But would you rather have Worley or Garza? Would you rather have Deduno or Garza?

Nolasco
Hughes
Gibson
Correia
Garza

Take it a step further to next year:

Garza
Nolasco
Meyer
Hughes
Gibson

That is a playoff caliber rotation and we can have assembled it in less than 2 offseasons.

Author's note: I have been an active hater of Matt Garza for some time now, as evidenced by my avatar of him in a dress. If he can move past my disdain then I can as well.

Edited by Joe A. Preusser, 11 December 2013 - 12:42 PM.
formatting


#21 mikeee

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Posted 11 December 2013 - 12:45 PM

5 pitchers now? Johan Santana?

#22 Brandon

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Posted 11 December 2013 - 12:54 PM

If we sign Garza or Arroyo, we could put together a nice package of prospects around Gibson for one of Az SS's Chris Owings or Didi Gregorius (not sure of spelling).

#23 SpitefulRabbit617

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Posted 11 December 2013 - 12:57 PM

Sign Garza and JOOOOOOOOOOOHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAANNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNN! Because we will prolly need a fill in pitcher around summer.

#24 Lonestar

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Posted 11 December 2013 - 01:11 PM

I think they do.

If you can get Matt Garza for four years and $60m, you make that deal all day and twice on Sundays.

Where would you have drawn the line on Garza at the beginning of the off-season. Where do you draw it now, after signing Nolasco and Hughes?

Garza would have been my top priority. I had targeted 4 yr / $68M. I could easily add a team option with $4M buyout.

#25 twinscowboysbulls

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Posted 11 December 2013 - 01:20 PM

I liked Diamond in the pen until I looked at his splits. As much as I enjoyed his nice 2012 I really think he's gone.

I look at it this way. There is a lot to like about Worley and Deduno. But would you rather have Worley or Garza? Would you rather have Deduno or Garza?

Nolasco
Hughes
Gibson
Correia
Garza

Take it a step further to next year:

Garza
Nolasco
Meyer
Hughes
Gibson

That is a playoff caliber rotation and we can have assembled it in less than 2 offseasons.

Author's note: I have been an active hater of Matt Garza for some time now, as evidenced by my avatar of him in a dress. If he can move past my disdain then I can as well.


I'm not sure if you read anything I wrote at all, but I never compared it to having Garza or Worley/Deduno in the rotation. The fifth spot is where it's Worley/Deduno/Diamond/Gibson/Meyer competing.

I highly disagree with you about Gibson being handed the #3 starter spot heading into the season. As the Twins have done in the past, and ALWAYS WILL do, the Veterans without options will have the right to that #5 rotation spot until proven otherwise in the regular season.

In other words, if the Twins sign another SP, and 1 of Diamond, Worley, Deduno are healthy in ST, I'd bet 100 Dollars Mr. Gibson is in AAA to begin the year. I'm not even sure he has a chance if we don't sign another SP.

#26 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 11 December 2013 - 01:27 PM

Where would you have drawn the line on Garza at the beginning of the off-season. Where do you draw it now, after signing Nolasco and Hughes?

Garza would have been my top priority. I had targeted 4 yr / $68M. I could easily add a team option with $4M buyout.


With the added revenue coming into MLB this year, I thought Garza could get silly money... 5/$85m type stuff. He still might get it.

With Garza, it's not so much about the yearly salary. It's the fifth year. If he can be had for four years, I'm not sure I care about the per year cost.

I'm not even that keen on picking up two 30 year old FAs in the same offseason but damn, Nolasco/Garza for four years could be pretty awesome and by the time Buxton/Sano/Arcia are due raises, they'd all be off the books.

#27 gunnarthor

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Posted 11 December 2013 - 01:34 PM

I think one thing we're ignoring is that Garza hasn't been great for a while - since 2010 his IP and WAR totals are roughly
2010 205 and 1.7
2011 198 and 2.8
2012 103 and 1.2
2013 155 and 1.4

He's not necessarily durable and he's older now. I think I'd prefer a smaller deal and look bigger next offseason.

#28 J-Dog Dungan

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Posted 11 December 2013 - 01:39 PM

So, Johan, Colon, Garza, Arroyo, and Pelfrey. Huh. Looks like the Twins are really pushing for a better rotation this season (no derp).

#29 nicksaviking

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Posted 11 December 2013 - 01:50 PM

With the added revenue coming into MLB this year, I thought Garza could get silly money... 5/$85m type stuff. He still might get it.

With Garza, it's not so much about the yearly salary. It's the fifth year. If he can be had for four years, I'm not sure I care about the per year cost.

I'm not even that keen on picking up two 30 year old FAs in the same offseason but damn, Nolasco/Garza for four years could be pretty awesome and by the time Buxton/Sano/Arcia are due raises, they'd all be off the books.


Depends on how long they wait to offer extensions. If one of them turns into a super-star with the ability to be mentioned in the same breath as Mike Trout, I'd prefer the Twins to look to lock them up very early. If the Twins had Trout and were treating him the way the Angels currently are, I'd be getting pretty worried. I'd be talking extension now, if not last off-season.

#30 thetank

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Posted 11 December 2013 - 01:52 PM

If we sign Garza or Arroyo, we could put together a nice package of prospects around Gibson for one of Az SS's Chris Owings or Didi Gregorius (not sure of spelling).

Buxton and/or Sano would have to be one of those prospects.