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It's not delivery, its Deduno...

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#1 Trevor0333

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Posted 29 November 2013 - 08:40 PM

I don't understand why so many are quick to write off Deduno's future in the rotation. I thought he really turned a corner last year in realizing how to pitch with the extreme amount of movement on his pitches.

He's only 30 and hasn't had a lot of wear on his arm IP wise. He is cost controlled not even being arbitration eligible until 2016. After having an amazing WBC run winning it all for the Dominican's he missed some time to start the year as well as at the end of the year but hasnt had a significant injury history Im aware of.

Only 1 start he didnt go atleast 5 IP last year was when he was pulled due to injury. He is the type of pitcher who will have a real bad clunker on occasion but will give you many more starts where he unhittable. I'll take a SP every time who will give you 7 IP with 2 ER or less 4 games followed by a 5 IP 5 ER clunker over the SP who will consistently give you 5-6 IP with 4 ER.

Prior to trying to pitch through shoulder woes where he had a brutal 3 game stretch before being shutdown he was 8-5 with a 3.17 era. He is the epitome of what you want in a back of the rotation starter. A cheap veteran who's able to matchup with the other teams ace on almost any given night.

Besides that his starts are crazy fun to watch!

#2 DocBauer

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Posted 29 November 2013 - 08:56 PM

I have to agree completely. While his control will never be tremendous, and he will always lack some consistency, he seems to have a modicum of control by simply trusting his stuff and letting it fly, rather than trying too hard to be fine. If we continue to take the necessary steps we are embarking on to improve our rotation; Nolasco, to be named, Correia, Gibson, Deduno healthy, Worley and Diamond in the wings as challengers, (possibly Albers) we are moving from lousy to possibly "good" this year.

A "good" rotation might not be World Series capable, but is far better than we've had for 3-4 years. And with Gibson' potential and Meyer following soon, there is the potential for even better.

And while there will be clunker innings and clunker games on occasion when his pitches simply have a mind of their own, 4 out of 5 games being solidd to good with 5 innings, often 6, occasional 6+, I would gladly take that over the Walters and Hernandezs of the world.

My only concern is his full health. We hear his injury was mild and he only needed rest and a little rehab. But we've heard that before

#3 Trevor0333

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Posted 29 November 2013 - 09:01 PM

My only concern is his full health. We hear his injury was mild and he only needed rest and a little rehab. But we've heard that before


This is the only concerning part is it is the Twins medical staff... Not even weathermen are wrong as often.

#4 snepp

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Posted 29 November 2013 - 09:02 PM

I'd rather have a wild card like Deduno in the #5/6 starter spot than the guaranteed mediocrity that's been trotted out there all too often over the last few years.
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#5 Thrylos

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Posted 29 November 2013 - 09:49 PM

Alright... let me throw this out:

Please give me a single objective and measurable criterium (or any piece of data you like, but it has to be objective and measurable) that Deduno is above replacement level in his prime (now and for the last 2 seasons)

Thank you.
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#6 johnnydakota

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Posted 29 November 2013 - 09:49 PM

Last year 3.83 ERA? sincerly he was our best pitcher, when he was here, and he was hurt the entire season

#7 Trevor0333

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Posted 29 November 2013 - 09:57 PM

Alright... let me throw this out:

Please give me a single objective and measurable criterium (or any piece of data you like, but it has to be objective and measurable) that Deduno is above replacement level in his prime (now and for the last 2 seasons)

Thank you.


In over half his starts last year he pitched into the 7th inning while giving up 2 or less runs.

#8 snepp

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Posted 29 November 2013 - 09:58 PM

[TABLE="class: rgMasterTable"]
[TR="class: rgRow"]
[TD="class: grid_line_break, align: right"]3.83 era[/TD]
[TD="class: grid_line_regular, align: right"]4.04 fip [/TD]
[TD="class: grid_line_regular, align: right"]4.06 xfip[/TD]
[TD="class: grid_line_regular, align: right"]4.13 sierra[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]

with 1 WAR over his 108 innings last year. Those were luck-neutral numbers as well, expected babip, hr/fb, and lob rates.

That's above replacement level, no? *shrug*


Whether or not he can do that over a full season, or multiple seasons, is another thing.
"Maybe you could go grab a bat and ball… and learn something. Maybe you will get it."
- Strib commenter educating the elitists on the value of RBI's

#9 johnnydakota

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Posted 29 November 2013 - 10:07 PM

He struggled to hit 90 mph the entire season, he normally is 94mph, so that tells me he pitched hurt the entire season and did a decent job, and if he was only replacement level that is still better then 89% of the rest of our teams starts...wasnt it?

#10 Trevor0333

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Posted 29 November 2013 - 11:12 PM

[TABLE="class: rgMasterTable"]
[TR="class: rgRow"]
[TD="class: grid_line_break, align: right"]3.83 era
[/TD]
[TD="class: grid_line_regular, align: right"]4.04 fip
[/TD]
[TD="class: grid_line_regular, align: right"]4.06 xfip
[/TD]
[TD="class: grid_line_regular, align: right"]4.13 sierra
[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]

with 1 WAR over his 108 innings last year. Those were luck-neutral numbers as well, expected babip, hr/fb, and lob rates.

That's above replacement level, no? *shrug*


Whether or not he can do that over a full season, or multiple seasons, is another thing.


If you take out his last 3 1/2 starts where he was obviously hurt Im sure those numbers change significantly.

#11 Trevor0333

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Posted 29 November 2013 - 11:13 PM

"Give me Deduno or give me death!"

I'll go on record as saying no matter who else they sign Deduno will end up the 2nd best starting pitcher on the staff.

#12 Major Leauge Ready

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Posted 29 November 2013 - 11:16 PM

Last year 3.83 ERA? sincerly he was our best pitcher, when he was here, and he was hurt the entire season


Yes, his ERA was below 3.5 until toward the end of the season when the injury was becoming more problematic. I just don't get how little credit he gets. He was the only SP I was excited to watch last year. I wached Gibson hoping to see him emerge but that did not go so well. Deduno was the most entertaining for me.

#13 huhguy

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Posted 29 November 2013 - 11:22 PM

I have to agree completely. While his control will never be tremendous, and he will always lack some consistency, he seems to have a modicum of control by simply trusting his stuff and letting it fly, rather than trying too hard to be fine. If we continue to take the necessary steps we are embarking on to improve our rotation; Nolasco, to be named, Correia, Gibson, Deduno healthy, Worley and Diamond in the wings as challengers, (possibly Albers) we are moving from lousy to possibly "good" this year.

A "good" rotation might not be World Series capable, but is far better than we've had for 3-4 years. And with Gibson' potential and Meyer following soon, there is the potential for even better.

And while there will be clunker innings and clunker games on occasion when his pitches simply have a mind of their own, 4 out of 5 games being solidd to good with 5 innings, often 6, occasional 6+, I would gladly take that over the Walters and Hernandezs of the world.

My only concern is his full health. We hear his injury was mild and he only needed rest and a little rehab. But we've heard that before

Deduno has top of the rotation stuff, not bottom, and if he stays healthy, he will be our best pitcher and is already better than the free agents available

#14 Halsey Hall

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Posted 29 November 2013 - 11:44 PM

I really like watching Deduno pitch. A little comedy in baseball is always different, I like it. Hopefully he's healthy this season, as he'll be needed.

#15 Otwins

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Posted 30 November 2013 - 01:36 AM

Count me in as a huge Deduno fan. He seemed to be able to get his strikeouts when he needed them last year. My only reservation is his shoulder injuries. They can be career enders. It appears that Meyer's shoulder responded well to some time off. Hopefully Deduno's does also. He did pitch in the WBC. Started the championship game so he had some high stress innings pitched even before the season started. Hopefully he just needs this offseason to get healthy.

#16 zchrz

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Posted 30 November 2013 - 02:24 AM

I like Deduno, I think he has the stuff too be part of a quality rotation. He looked to have really taken a step forward last year. If they sign 1 more pitcher and go with a Deduno/ Gibson back end of the rotation I will be satisfied, there will be potential instead of just cannon fodder on the mound. Heck if they both pitch well Corriea could be the one bumped down the depth chart for Meyer or whomever is demanding a shot.

Edited by zchrz, 30 November 2013 - 02:26 AM.

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#17 Oxtung

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Posted 30 November 2013 - 02:46 AM

I guess I'll be the naysayer here. I think Deduno is ripe for regression. His 5.6K/9, 3.4BB/9 and 1.352 WHIP all hint at luck more than stuff. Deduno survived because he got groundballs 59.7% of the time. That would easily have been the best in baseball if he had qualified. That seems likely to regress some. When that happens his HR/9 rate will increase as well.

#18 Reider

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Posted 30 November 2013 - 02:51 AM

I am a huge Deduno fan. He has good movement on his pitches and plays great under pressure. He's a real treat to watch. I hope he's healthy and ready to go for the 2014 season.

#19 glunn

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Posted 30 November 2013 - 03:23 AM

I am enjoying the posts in this thread, especially the posts of the Rookies. The optimism about Deduno is contagious, and the naysayers are being factual and respectful.

#20 Major Leauge Ready

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Posted 30 November 2013 - 06:48 AM

I guess I'll be the naysayer here. I think Deduno is ripe for regression. His 5.6K/9, 3.4BB/9 and 1.352 WHIP all hint at luck more than stuff. Deduno survived because he got groundballs 59.7% of the time. That would easily have been the best in baseball if he had qualified. That seems likely to regress some. When that happens his HR/9 rate will increase as well.


It is true that his k/9 rate went down but until late in the year he produced a lot of very weakly hit GBs. However, it did not translate in terms of BABIP. That might be somewhat a product of his problems later in the season. His BABIP ended up the same as Liriano and Garza.

K/9 BB/9 HR/9 BABIP LOB GB% HR/FB ERA
Garza --- 7.88 2.43 1.16 .290 73.4% 38.6% 11.6% 3.82
Liriano --- 9.11 3.52 0.50 .290 77.6% 50.5% 8.3 % 3.02
Deduno -- 5.58 3.42 0.58 .291 73.7% 59.7 % 10.3 % 3.83

He had a good k/9 rate in AAA with the Twins. Now that he has some big league experience, it would not be unreasonable to believe he could increase that K/9 rate a little and tighten up the walk rate.

Edited by Major Leauge Ready, 30 November 2013 - 07:18 AM.


#21 whydidnt

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Posted 30 November 2013 - 07:31 AM

I have to say, though Deduno and Diamond are different kinds of pitchers, we saw the same sort of optimism on Diamond around here last year, and we all saw how that worked out. Deduno could be that rare guy that figures it out late in in career and goes on to have some productive years because he's just different enough. His K/9 & BB/9 just don't scream "stuff" to me. I just think that he's not the kind of guy you count on as a top of the rotation starter (any more than we should have with Diamond last year). If you want to pencil him at 5 and hope he does better, then I'm on board.

I just think the goal should be having better players than your opponents, and I'm pretty hard pressed to find any AL Central team that doesn't have 3 or probably 4 starters that I wouldn't rather have than Deduno.

#22 whydidnt

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Posted 30 November 2013 - 07:34 AM

He struggled to hit 90 mph the entire season, he normally is 94mph, so that tells me he pitched hurt the entire season and did a decent job, and if he was only replacement level that is still better then 89% of the rest of our teams starts...wasnt it?


Or, was that just the "Anderson effect". Take something off it and throw it over the plate.:D
Seriously, I don't really know what his physical condition was, it does not seem all that unusual for Twins pitchers to lose some K/9's after spending some time with the big league club though.

#23 MichiganTwins

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Posted 30 November 2013 - 08:11 AM

I realize we all hate pitching to contact, but Deduno is one of those pitchers who seemed to benefit from that. He induced a lot of weakly hit balls to himself or the catcher. He has 35 chances to record out in 108 innings. About every third inning a ball was hit to him, which doesnt include balls hit to the catcher. FOr reference, COrreia has 36 in 80 more innings. His walks decreased almost 3 batters per nine innings last year (6.0 to 3.4). It will depend on if he "regains" his velocity that will help him and we will see if he can be count on this year or in the future.

#24 Marta Shearing

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Posted 30 November 2013 - 08:22 AM

Alright... let me throw this out:

Please give me a single objective and measurable criterium (or any piece of data you like, but it has to be objective and measurable) that Deduno is above replacement level in his prime (now and for the last 2 seasons)

Thank you.

Most people don't consider WAR a legitimate statistic.

#25 Seth Stohs

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Posted 30 November 2013 - 08:32 AM

I enjoy watching Deduno pitch. I do think that taking just a little velocity off his pitches, he can throw more strikes and get just as much movement. Hitters didn't make solid contact on him, and that makes the lower k rate less meaningful. I'm not 100% buying it. I've just always found him intriguing. 2014 will be interesting for him.

#26 Thrylos

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Posted 30 November 2013 - 09:39 AM

[TABLE="class: rgMasterTable"]
[TR="class: rgRow"]
[TD="class: grid_line_break, align: right"]3.83 era[/TD]
[TD="class: grid_line_regular, align: right"]4.04 fip[/TD]
[TD="class: grid_line_regular, align: right"]4.06 xfip[/TD]
[TD="class: grid_line_regular, align: right"]4.13 sierra[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]

with 1 WAR over his 108 innings last year. Those were luck-neutral numbers as well, expected babip, hr/fb, and lob rates.

That's above replacement level, no? *shrug*


Whether or not he can do that over a full season, or multiple seasons, is another thing.


As a starter with the Twins his SIERA in 2012 was 5.04 and in 2013 4.13. Career average, including his RP stints is 4.47.

Here is the SIERA table from here:

[TABLE="width: 200, align: center"]
[TR="bgcolor: #edf1f3"]
[TH="align: center"]Rating[/TH]
[TH="align: center"]SIERA
[/TH]
[/TR]
[TR="bgcolor: #ffffff"]
[TD="align: center"]Excellent[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]2.90[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="bgcolor: #ffffff"]
[TD="align: center"]Great[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]3.25[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="bgcolor: #ffffff"]
[TD="align: center"]Above Average[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]3.75[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="bgcolor: #ffffff"]
[TD="align: center"]Average[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]3.90[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="bgcolor: #ffffff"]
[TD="align: center"]Below Average[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]4.20[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="bgcolor: #ffffff"]
[TD="align: center"]Poor[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]4.50[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="bgcolor: #ffffff"]
[TD="align: center"]Awful[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]5.00[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]

So his best season was up to below average, career average is at the poor level and the season before he was awful. If that does not scream replacement level, I don't know what does...

FIP, tRA, xFIP all saying the same story.

Not that he cannot be a 5th starter in the majors. That's replacement level in most places. My point is that Worley is likely at least at that level, has had success and has still to enter his prime, so he is better suited than Deduno for that spot.

And, yes, he is fun to watch pitching. Nobody denies that. Juan Morillo was fun to watch too...
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#27 big dog

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Posted 30 November 2013 - 09:45 AM

Most people don't consider WAR a legitimate statistic.


Most people don't consider most people to be a legitimate reference source. :P

#28 Paul

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Posted 30 November 2013 - 09:45 AM

I realize we all hate pitching to contact, but Deduno is one of those pitchers who seemed to benefit from that. ...


Can I really be the only one on TD who appreciates the irony of all the "pitching to contact" hate?

#29 johnnydakota

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Posted 30 November 2013 - 09:50 AM

Or, was that just the "Anderson effect". Take something off it and throw it over the plate.:D
Seriously, I don't really know what his physical condition was, it does not seem all that unusual for Twins pitchers to lose some K/9's after spending some time with the big league club though.


His agent reported that Samuel had some kind of surgery last fall on his shoulder...wether it was just a scope or if they tightened up some things in the rotocuff im not sure

#30 johnnydakota

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Posted 30 November 2013 - 09:54 AM

As a starter with the Twins his SIERA in 2012 was 5.04 and in 2013 4.13. Career average, including his RP stints is 4.47.

Here is the SIERA table from here:

[TABLE="width: 200, align: center"]
[TR="bgcolor: #EDF1F3"]
[TH="align: center"]Rating
[/TH]
[TH="align: center"]SIERA
[/TH]
[/TR]
[TR="bgcolor: #FFFFFF"]
[TD="align: center"]Excellent
[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]2.90
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="bgcolor: #FFFFFF"]
[TD="align: center"]Great
[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]3.25
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="bgcolor: #FFFFFF"]
[TD="align: center"]Above Average
[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]3.75
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="bgcolor: #FFFFFF"]
[TD="align: center"]Average
[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]3.90
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="bgcolor: #FFFFFF"]
[TD="align: center"]Below Average
[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]4.20
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="bgcolor: #FFFFFF"]
[TD="align: center"]Poor
[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]4.50
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="bgcolor: #FFFFFF"]
[TD="align: center"]Awful
[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]5.00
[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]

So his best season was up to below average, career average is at the poor level and the season before he was awful. If that does not scream replacement level, I don't know what does...

FIP, tRA, xFIP all saying the same story.

Not that he cannot be a 5th starter in the majors. That's replacement level in most places. My point is that Worley is likely at least at that level, has had success and has still to enter his prime, so he is better suited than Deduno for that spot.

And, yes, he is fun to watch pitching. Nobody denies that. Juan Morillo was fun to watch too...


So at slightly below average,Samuel was the best rated starting pitcher? hahaha last year we were bad, do I think DeDuno is an all star ? No but to me you have to let him compete for a spot in the rotation, but then again , Im all for making each pitcher compete and take the 5 best North