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#1 SpiritofVodkaDave

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Posted 26 November 2013 - 10:27 PM

MLBTR report that the Twins are keen on him, he would be avail in a trade from Cinci, assuming the Twins could sign him to an extension (5 years starting in 2015) I think going after him would be a no brainer. He is young, and has finally lived up to his talent the last two years, improving each year. His ERA/FIP/XFIP last year was 3.47/3.31/3.34 and his k/9 was 8.57 bb/2.33

With Cinci more or less aggressively shopping Phillips in trade talks, they are going to have a need for a 2B pretty quickly.

Would a package centered around Rosario (top 70 prospect) along with Gibson and a guy like Walker be enough to get conversations started? Would you need to add a guy like Pinto/Berrios into the mix as well instead of Walker?

I would give up basically anyone not named Sano, Buxton, Stewart or Meyer for him at this point in a heartbeat.

IMO Bailey along with an extension seems like the PERFECT acquisition for the Twins, he gives you a real nice #2/poor mans Ace moving forward.

#2 johnnydakota

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Posted 26 November 2013 - 10:29 PM

I would go Rosario and Gibson , not to sure If I would give up more then that unless we could sign him prior to the trade

#3 howieramone1406390264

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Posted 26 November 2013 - 10:30 PM

I agree, this is the one to get.

#4 Willihammer

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Posted 26 November 2013 - 10:31 PM

We may need to rope in a 3rd party to take Philips.

Yankees?

#5 SpiritofVodkaDave

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Posted 26 November 2013 - 10:34 PM

Also I know there is a lot of talk about Bailey wanting to hit the market, however if you offer him 5/88 extension (Sanchez money) prior to the start of 2014 season I think he HAS to listen.

Actually, you could prob go 6/95 (rip up his 2014 contract) to help offset some of the costs moving forward/spread it out (he would be due about 4 mil this year in arb)

#6 SpiritofVodkaDave

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Posted 26 November 2013 - 10:38 PM

We may need to rope in a 3rd party to take Philips.

Yankees?


I don't think they would need to trade Phillips at the same time, Phillips won't be the easiest guy in the world to move due to his contract but its really not that awful (4 years 51 mil) but whoever loses out on the Cano sweepstakes would prob take him if Cinci kicks in a bit of money.

#7 Brad Swanson

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Posted 26 November 2013 - 10:43 PM

I'd love to keep Gibson and offer Berrios, but I could see where Cincinnati would want a more MLB-ready starter. I'd do bad things to get Bailey. I think he's really good. I'd go 6/100 if that's what it took.
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#8 Riverbrian

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Posted 26 November 2013 - 10:46 PM

I'm a big fan of Bailey. I agree with the players that a VD lists as untouchable and I will add Gibson to that list because I think we would need Gibby right now.

Anyone else... I'd consider. Bring me Homer.
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#9 Willihammer

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Posted 26 November 2013 - 10:49 PM

If they bring Chapman into the rotation then they might like a lefty reliever to fill his spot in the bullpen.

They did sign Skip Schumacher today too. So they have a lot of infielders.

Corner OF looks like their other weak spot.

#10 SpiritofVodkaDave

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Posted 26 November 2013 - 10:52 PM

I'm a big fan of Bailey. I agree with the players that a VD lists as untouchable and I will add Gibson to that list because I think we would need Gibby right now.

Anyone else... I'd consider. Bring me Homer.

Gibson shouldn't be untouchable at all when it comes to Bailey IMO. But i would prob give up Berrios instead.

#11 Willihammer

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Posted 26 November 2013 - 10:52 PM

I agree with the players that a VD lists as untouchable


Yea I don't touch VD's either. That is my rule number one in any, uh, transaction. :P

#12 SpiritofVodkaDave

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Posted 26 November 2013 - 10:56 PM

If they bring Chapman into the rotation then they might like a lefty reliever to fill his spot in the bullpen.

They did sign Skip Schumacher today too. So they have a lot of infielders.

Corner OF looks like their other weak spot.


Skip is more of a super UTIL guy, right? Not exactly a starter any-were at this stage of his career.

They could re-sign Choo if they trade Phillips and Homer, so not sure if corner OF is as large of a need as it appears if they have Choo and Bruce in RF/LF and B Hamilton in CF.

I'd be more than happy to make Perkins the center piece of the trade if that is what they wanted (losing Perkins would suck as I am a big fan, but it wouldn't be to heartbreaking to part with) Not sure I'd be thrilled to add in Rosario as well in that deal however. Maybe Perkins+Gibson or Perkins+Berrios?

#13 Brandon

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Posted 26 November 2013 - 11:00 PM

So we sign Arroyo and trade for Bailey and acquire 40% of Cincinnati's rotation.

#14 SpiritofVodkaDave

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Posted 26 November 2013 - 11:06 PM

So we sign Arroyo and trade for Bailey and acquire 40% of Cincinnati's rotation.


I'd rather just take the good half of that 40% ;)

#15 notoriousgod71

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Posted 26 November 2013 - 11:14 PM

Yes, if Bailey would agree to an extension I would absolutely love to acquire him.

#16 Willihammer

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Posted 26 November 2013 - 11:26 PM

They could re-sign Choo if they trade Phillips and Homer, so not sure if corner OF is as large of a need as it appears if they have Choo and Bruce in RF/LF and B Hamilton in CF.


A lateral move, and an expensive one. They have Philips on the books for 4/50 and Choo is going to fetch what, 5/100 or something in that neighborhood?

Would Hammer + Perkins get it done? The Reds would fill 2 holes instead of 1 and cost a lot less. Maybe the Twins could even leverage a prospect or two out of that.

#17 SpiritofVodkaDave

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Posted 26 November 2013 - 11:43 PM

A lateral move, and an expensive one. They have Philips on the books for 4/50 and Choo is going to fetch what, 5/100 or something in that neighborhood?

Would Hammer + Perkins get it done? The Reds would fill 2 holes instead of 1 and cost a lot less. Maybe the Twins could even leverage a prospect or two out of that.


I don't think Hammer has any significant value after coming off his 2013 campaign where he has negative defensive value, and hit shockingly bad. (0.0 WAR overall) I doubt the Twins could get anything more than a C prospect straight up for him at this point. The best bet is to hope he regains some form during the season, and swap him out for a C+ prospect IMO

I don't think its that lateral of a move with Choo/Phillips, Choo will prob cost 5/90 or so and has a significantly better bat then Phillips (who is regressing quite a bit). Choo should move over to the corner OF and should be above average there, and you are looking at a guy who should post a 3.5-4.5 WAR year in and year out for the next few years in LF/RF.

#18 Shane Wahl

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Posted 26 November 2013 - 11:59 PM

This is just an abomination. SIGN a damn pitcher of equal value and don't trade prospects for one. Good god. I like Bailey. If Plouffe, Santana, Baxendale, and Zach Jones could get it done, then by all means. But no top 10 prospects when signing other dudes is perfectly feasible.

If the Twins signed Garza or Jimenez, then Kazmir or Hughes, THEN maybe this becomes a Bailey-for-Rosario and others kind of conversation. But Mike Pelfrey and Kris Johnson are at least 2/3 of the additions to the staff . . . so no.

Bank on the future all out or go big in FREE AGENCY. Don't half-ass this and trade off the damn future. Good lord and a half.

#19 SpiritofVodkaDave

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Posted 27 November 2013 - 12:21 AM

This is just an abomination. SIGN a damn pitcher of equal value and don't trade prospects for one. Good god. I like Bailey. If Plouffe, Santana, Baxendale, and Zach Jones could get it done, then by all means. But no top 10 prospects when signing other dudes is perfectly feasible.

If the Twins signed Garza or Jimenez, then Kazmir or Hughes, THEN maybe this becomes a Bailey-for-Rosario and others kind of conversation. But Mike Pelfrey and Kris Johnson are at least 2/3 of the additions to the staff . . . so no.

Bank on the future all out or go big in FREE AGENCY. Don't half-ass this and trade off the damn future. Good lord and a half.


The only pitcher of equal value on the market is Garza (and actually I like Bailey more since he is 3 years younger)

Jimenez isn't, Santana certainly isn't, Nolasco isn't even close. The Twins have a ton of depth in the minors, trading away one of the top prospects not named Sano, Buxton, Meyer or Stewart hardly is "trading off the damn future"

#20 Shane Wahl

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Posted 27 November 2013 - 12:36 AM

The only pitcher of equal value on the market is Garza (and actually I like Bailey more since he is 3 years younger)

Jimenez isn't, Santana certainly isn't, Nolasco isn't even close. The Twins have a ton of depth in the minors, trading away one of the top prospects not named Sano, Buxton, Meyer or Stewart hardly is "trading off the damn future"


You're a good adversary, Dave. What are you talking about in regards to Bailey's value? He has had two very good seasons in a row, yes. Garza blows Bailey out of the water. Bailey is similar to Jimenez, Santana, and potentially Kazmir and company.

Anyway, do you like the possibility of Plouffe, D. Santana, D.J. Baxendale, and Zach Jones for Bailey? (sub Harrison in for any of the last three)???

#21 SpiritofVodkaDave

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Posted 27 November 2013 - 12:48 AM

Bailey is similar to Jimenez, Santana, and potentially Kazmir and company.

Anyway, do you like the possibility of Plouffe, D. Santana, D.J. Baxendale, and Zach Jones for Bailey? (sub Harrison in for any of the last three)???


No he isn't similar to them, he is 27 and now just entering his prime. Ubaldo has been very inconsistent his last three years, what pitcher is he? The One who pitched well in 2013 for the Indians? Or the one who put up a 5.25 ERA int he two years prior for Clev?
Santana- no.
Kazmir...i Like him, but are you kidding me? He had his first decent (4.04 ERA) in FIVE years.

Your suggested trade offer is all I need to see to not take any of this seriously, you can't trade 4 guys with zero value and get something great back.

Plouffe is a mediocre 3rd baseman, Baxendale is low upside back end starter at best, Zach Jones is in A ball and a RP with control issues, and Travis Harrison is still a long shot as well.

#22 Shane Wahl

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Posted 27 November 2013 - 01:11 AM

No he isn't similar to them, he is 27 and now just entering his prime. Ubaldo has been very inconsistent his last three years, what pitcher is he? The One who pitched well in 2013 for the Indians? Or the one who put up a 5.25 ERA int he two years prior for Clev?
Santana- no.
Kazmir...i Like him, but are you kidding me? He had his first decent (4.04 ERA) in FIVE years.

Your suggested trade offer is all I need to see to not take any of this seriously, you can't trade 4 guys with zero value and get something great back.

Plouffe is a mediocre 3rd baseman, Baxendale is low upside back end starter at best, Zach Jones is in A ball and a RP with control issues, and Travis Harrison is still a long shot as well.


To you Homer Bailey is in the top three of all pitchers either on the market or being shopped around? Really?

I am not sure what is so egregious about my trade offer. The point was to offer some diversity. What about Plouffe, Harrison, R. Rosario, and Jones? You have to consider the money difference here too.

#23 AussieTwin

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Posted 27 November 2013 - 01:13 AM

I'd just like to quickly summarise my optimism for the Twins off-season and this proposed trade with a short clip that I feel really encapsulates our emotions


#24 SpiritofVodkaDave

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Posted 27 November 2013 - 01:20 AM

To you Homer Bailey is in the top three of all pitchers either on the market or being shopped around? Really?

I am not sure what is so egregious about my trade offer. The point was to offer some diversity. What about Plouffe, Harrison, R. Rosario, and Jones? You have to consider the money difference here too.

Tanaka is a complete unknown so I am leaving him out of this period.
As far as free agents: I think Garza is the only one more attractive, and as far as realistic pitchers being shopped, David Price is obviously the gold standard. There was a rumbling about Shelby Miller being shopped, but frankly that isn't an option period. So yeah, Bailey is right there for me as realistic target.

What is so egregious about your trade offer, is none of those players have any value. Plouffe would be a bench bat for Cinci, and within a year or two is a non tender candidate unless he turns it around. Jones and Rosario are both on the outside of the Twins top 25 prospects. Harrison is really the only thing of value, but even his is pretty limited at this point as he isn't close at all to being a top 100 or 150 prospect at this point.

#25 Shane Wahl

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Posted 27 November 2013 - 01:29 AM

Tanaka is a complete unknown so I am leaving him out of this period.
As far as free agents: I think Garza is the only one more attractive, and as far as realistic pitchers being shopped, David Price is obviously the gold standard. There was a rumbling about Shelby Miller being shopped, but frankly that isn't an option period. So yeah, Bailey is right there for me as realistic target.

What is so egregious about your trade offer, is none of those players have any value. Plouffe would be a bench bat for Cinci, and within a year or two is a non tender candidate unless he turns it around. Jones and Rosario are both on the outside of the Twins top 25 prospects. Harrison is really the only thing of value, but even his is pretty limited at this point as he isn't close at all to being a top 100 or 150 prospect at this point.


Ok, but the Reds are not just trading away from a position of lack or potential lack. They have some damn good pitching. Anyway, third base is not set in stone for them. Plouffe has some good value there. Santana would provide depth for the Phillips move coming soon. Jones is young but a great risk for a team. Harrison is a potential good bat from 1b/DH at the least.

I am not sure how an MLB player and some 3 minor leaguers with good value doesn't work here.

#26 freshinthehouse

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Posted 27 November 2013 - 02:58 AM

Any chance Cinci would covet Perkins if they were to put their current closer in the rotation?
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#27 AllhopeisgoneMNTWINS

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Posted 27 November 2013 - 03:40 AM

Any chance Cinci would covet Perkins if they were to put their current closer in the rotation?


Hmmm...I like your thinking, but I dont think the Twins are willing to give up Perkins. One of the best Closers in the league with a very team friendly contract. Then again whats the point of having a great closer if your starting pitchers aren't good enough to set him up for a save opportunity?

#28 Erock

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Posted 27 November 2013 - 04:51 AM

Besides the obvious ones. I would be strongly against Arcia being involved and would have pretty mixed feelings about dealing Rosario or Berrios.

#29 TheLeviathan

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Posted 27 November 2013 - 05:28 AM

I don't think the Twins would be able to do this without Arcia in the offer. Rosario's value took a hit with the suspension, so he can't be a centerpiece.

You also have to take into account that this is a team in the mode to win now, so your offer has to be built around instant or very close contributors. I like Bailey, but I'm not sure what it'd take to get him from the Twins is a pill you'll want to swallow.

#30 goulik

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Posted 27 November 2013 - 07:09 AM

Rosario, Willingham, Plouffe, Worley, Gibson, Duensing, Swarzak.
Pick three