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The Return of Mike Pelfrey

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#1 notoriousgod71

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Posted 26 November 2013 - 09:05 PM

The Twins have made a two-year offer to Mike Pelfrey, according to Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com. However, there's still a gap in salary that needs to be bridged. Pelfrey returned from Tommy John surgery in 2012 to post a 5.19 ERA with 6.0 K/9, 3.1 BB/9 and a career-low 43.2 percent ground-ball rate in 152 2/3 innings. Pelfrey's FIP (3.99) and xFIP (4.54) both suggest that his ERA could have been lower were it not for a .337 BABIP and 67.2 percent strand rate.

Why even bother? Pelfrey is not going to help in any way. The best thing to do when you are a garbage team is to obviously resign your own trash. PONY UP SOME MONEY AND SIGN SOMEONE GOOD!!!

#2 SpiritofVodkaDave

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Posted 26 November 2013 - 09:16 PM

The Twins have made a two-year offer to Mike Pelfrey, according to Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com. However, there's still a gap in salary that needs to be bridged. Pelfrey returned from Tommy John surgery in 2012 to post a 5.19 ERA with 6.0 K/9, 3.1 BB/9 and a career-low 43.2 percent ground-ball rate in 152 2/3 innings. Pelfrey's FIP (3.99) and xFIP (4.54) both suggest that his ERA could have been lower were it not for a .337 BABIP and 67.2 percent strand rate.

Why even bother? Pelfrey is not going to help in any way. The best thing to do when you are a garbage team is to obviously resign your own trash. PONY UP SOME MONEY AND SIGN SOMEONE GOOD!!!


I actually like Pelfrey as a bounce back candidate, he came back really early from TJS and showed some flashes this year, additionally his FIP and xFIP as stated above show that he got unlucky. Steamer projects him as a 4.27 ERA this year, which is fine for a #4/#5 guy.

To be honest, I would rather give Pelfrey 2/8 or something like that, then give Arroyo 3/36 or 3/30. I think Pelfrey has a chance to be just as effective as someone like that over the next couple years, costs a lot less and allows you to spend more money on a front end guy like Garza.

Question:

If the Twins signed Garza and Pelfrey this off-season along with a bat, would you be satisfied?

Hell, if anything, signing Pelfrey gives you the opp to sign a guy like Garza along with a high risk/high reward guy like Kazmir.

Garza
Kazmir
Gibson
Correia
Pelfrey

DeDuno, Meyer waiting in the wings....could be a decent start.

Prior to the injury Pelfrey was putting up about 200 IP a year for the Mets, if he can give you 180-200 IP with a 4.25-4.40 ERA he ends up being a pretty nice signing. (And that isn't factoring in the chance he could even put a sub 4.00 ERA up)

Edited by SpiritofVodkaDave, 26 November 2013 - 09:21 PM.


#3 nicksaviking

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Posted 26 November 2013 - 09:21 PM

It is frustrating but not surprising. The team is loyal to a fault and really seems to prefer the comfort of old faces to new endeavors. Stubbornness is not a positive trait but perhaps they are only offering $3-4 million per. That wouldn't be a huge problem I guess aside from the fact that two years probably guarantees a rotation spot. Could make a bigger signing more possible though.

#4 SpiritofVodkaDave

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Posted 26 November 2013 - 09:23 PM

It is frustrating but not surprising. The team is loyal to a fault and really seems to prefer the comfort of old faces to new endeavors. Stubbornness is not a positive trait but perhaps they are only offering $3 million per. That wouldn't be a huge problem I guess aside from the fact that two years probably guarantees a rotation spot.


Two years wouldn't guarantee a rotation spot at all, the Twins have shown in the very recent past they aren't afraid to send a guy down who isn't preforming, even on a guaranteed deal: Nishi, Blackburn etc

Again, don't spend a lot fortifying the back end of your rotation, save that money for a high upside pitcher like Garza.

#5 TheLeviathan

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Posted 26 November 2013 - 09:27 PM

3M per year? Why would he take a pay cut?

If we offered him two years, I'm guessing the total value is going to be closer to 10-15. Which would be a bit infuriating. If we sign him I have a feeling that what we'll regret most of all is not getting a team option or multi-year deal last year.

#6 notoriousgod71

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Posted 26 November 2013 - 09:31 PM

I actually like Pelfrey as a bounce back candidate, he came back really early from TJS and showed some flashes this year, additionally his FIP and xFIP as stated above show that he got unlucky. Steamer projects him as a 4.27 ERA this year, which is fine for a #4/#5 guy.

To be honest, I would rather give Pelfrey 2/8 or something like that, then give Arroyo 3/36 or 3/30. I think Pelfrey has a chance to be just as effective as someone like that over the next couple years, costs a lot less and allows you to spend more money on a front end guy like Garza.

Question:

If the Twins signed Garza and Pelfrey this off-season along with a bat, would you be satisfied?

Hell, if anything, signing Pelfrey gives you the opp to sign a guy like Garza along with a high risk/high reward guy like Kazmir.

Garza
Kazmir
Gibson
Correia
Pelfrey

DeDuno, Meyer waiting in the wings....could be a decent start.

Prior to the injury Pelfrey was putting up about 200 IP a year for the Mets, if he can give you 180-200 IP with a 4.25-4.40 ERA he ends up being a pretty nice signing. (And that isn't factoring in the chance he could even put a sub 4.00 ERA up)


If they signed Garza AND a bat... it depends who that bat is. I just have absolutely zero faith that Ryan can or will fix this mess. He essentially puts together a team in the exact opposite way I would and I like about one out of ten of his moves.

#7 SpiritofVodkaDave

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Posted 26 November 2013 - 09:37 PM

3M per year? Why would he take a pay cut?

If we offered him two years, I'm guessing the total value is going to be closer to 10-15. Which would be a bit infuriating. If we sign him I have a feeling that what we'll regret most of all is not getting a team option or multi-year deal last year.


His last 4 years with the Mets he averaged 196 IP a year and a 4.22 ERA, FWIW he also had the highest K rate of his career last year as a Twin at 6.0. After he was brought back up he put up 63 K in 82 inning which creeps him closer to a 7.0 k/9 rate.

None of that of course is a sure thing, which is why he comes cheap. However, if given the choice between Pelfrey at 2/10 or 38 year old Arroyo for three times the total salary and 1 more year? Give me Pelfrey. Ideally you could get him on 2/10 or 2/12 with a 7 million dollar TEAM option for a third year

I will only be infuriated if he is the best pitcher we sign this off-season :)

#8 DocBauer

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Posted 26 November 2013 - 09:40 PM

I too have thought a great deal about Pelfrey. I can't say I dislike the idea based on what he did with the Mets when healthy, what he did about the middle of the season, and as a stronger this year bounce back candidate. I just feel it's like signing another Correia and we need better than that. And I feel he's a good 3rd signing, but am afraid signing him precludes signing 2 other better options, plus quality help at C. Unless we either get lucky, or the coffers are really going to open this year.

#9 Guest_USAFChief_*

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Posted 26 November 2013 - 09:44 PM

If nothing else, having him in the rotation will boost in stadium concession sales. You can go get a beer and nachos between pitches. With runners on you might even have time to hit the men's room.

#10 old nurse

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Posted 26 November 2013 - 09:47 PM

His last 4 years with the Mets he averaged 196 IP a year and a 4.22 ERA, FWIW he also had the highest K rate of his career last year as a Twin at 6.0. After he was brought back up he put up 63 K in 82 inning which creeps him closer to a 7.0 k/9 rate.

None of that of course is a sure thing, which is why he comes cheap. However, if given the choice between Pelfrey at 2/10 or 38 year old Arroyo for three times the total salary and 1 more year? Give me Pelfrey. Ideally you could get him on 2/10 or 2/12 with a 7 million dollar TEAM option for a third year

I will only be infuriated if he is the best pitcher we sign this off-season :)


37 year old on opening day Arroyo (2/24/77) for 30 million or Pelf for 10.Can Pelfrey be the starter he was in New York in average war? That would be as good as the recent production from Arroyo.

#11 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 26 November 2013 - 09:48 PM

If nothing else, having him in the rotation will boost in stadium concession sales. You can go get a beer and nachos between pitches. With runners on you might even have time to hit the men's room.


I stopped watching the dude pitch because I found his routine so aggravating.

#12 stringer bell

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Posted 26 November 2013 - 09:50 PM

I hate to say it, but my prediction is that Pelfrey will be signed for more than most think he should get and that he will be the best player the Twins sign. 2-$13? Two years plus an option? I dislike his mound presence, but he did improve as the season progressed and he'll only be 30 next year. He throws harder than anyone on the starting staff and he is willing to come back to Minnesota.

#13 Major Leauge Ready

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Posted 26 November 2013 - 09:50 PM

If they signed Garza AND a bat... it depends who that bat is. I just have absolutely zero faith that Ryan can or will fix this mess. He essentially puts together a team in the exact opposite way I would and I like about one out of ten of his moves.


That is the beauty of being a fan. LOTS of fans think they know how to run a MLB franchise better than those who have the job. Hard to imagine why they pay GMs $1M+ year when there are so many people working for $50K (or less) a year who can do the job better.

#14 Jeremy Nygaard

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Posted 26 November 2013 - 09:54 PM

Seth and I had a quite long discussion with Mike Berardino tonight about Pelfrey. You can view it in Episode 3 (link on the frontpage).

#15 SpiritofVodkaDave

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Posted 26 November 2013 - 09:59 PM

I too have thought a great deal about Pelfrey. I can't say I dislike the idea based on what he did with the Mets when healthy, what he did about the middle of the season, and as a stronger this year bounce back candidate. I just feel it's like signing another Correia and we need better than that. And I feel he's a good 3rd signing, but am afraid signing him precludes signing 2 other better options, plus quality help at C. Unless we either get lucky, or the coffers are really going to open this year.


As I mentioned in the world's greatest blue print ever, the Twins don't HAVE to sign everyone this year, as 2014 they should be aiming to get to the .500 range, they can still sign players next off-season as well. Which is why, at the end of the day I would be happy with a high upside pitcher liker Garza+Pelfrey along with a bat. Leaving plenty of money to sign another solid arm or two (Bailey?) prior to 2015.

Hell, maybe the dream scenario would be to: Sign Garza or a Nolasco/Jimenez type guy, Trade for Bailey (Twins linked to him today in trade talks), give Bailey a 5 year extension, sign Pelfrey, sign Salty/AJ

#16 Willihammer

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Posted 26 November 2013 - 09:59 PM

Now that we suffered through the last half of his recuperation might as well bring him back. He should be better next year.

I just hope the plan isn't to do the same with Gavin Floyd next season.

#17 SpiritofVodkaDave

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Posted 26 November 2013 - 10:01 PM

Added bonus, staying on Boras' good side :)

#18 nicksaviking

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Posted 26 November 2013 - 10:01 PM

That is the beauty of being a fan. LOTS of fans think they know how to run a MLB franchise better than those who have the job. Hard to imagine why they pay GMs $1M+ year when there are so many people working for $50K (or less) a year who can do the job better.


While this is mostly true, given the same resources as Ryan the last three years, I think many fans could luck their way into consecutive 90 loss seasons.

#19 Sconnie

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Posted 26 November 2013 - 10:02 PM

I actually like Pelfrey as a bounce back candidate, he came back really early from TJS and showed some flashes this year, additionally his FIP and xFIP as stated above show that he got unlucky.
Prior to the injury Pelfrey was putting up about 200 IP a year for the Mets, if he can give you 180-200 IP with a 4.25-4.40 ERA he ends up being a pretty nice signing. (And that isn't factoring in the chance he could even put a sub 4.00 ERA up)

im p.o.ed too. It's not that Pelfrey is bad. He's fine, if he were a finishing touch to round out a GOOD rotation, I would be over the moon. The problem is, he's the first, not the last. There's already plans for yet another 5 plus ERA back of the rotation filler guy who's just like the rest of a rotation full of back of the rotation filler guys, and no real movement yet ( and probably won't be) on a high end front of the rotation guy or three.

Edited by Sconnie, 26 November 2013 - 10:04 PM.
Stupid auto correct


#20 notoriousgod71

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Posted 26 November 2013 - 10:06 PM

That is the beauty of being a fan. LOTS of fans think they know how to run a MLB franchise better than those who have the job. Hard to imagine why they pay GMs $1M+ year when there are so many people working for $50K (or less) a year who can do the job better.


I would bet a good deal of posters here could do the job better. Unfortunately not one of us will ever get that chance.

#21 johnnydakota

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Posted 26 November 2013 - 10:09 PM

im p.o.ed too. It's not that Pelfrey is bad. He's fine, if he were a finishing touch to round out a GOOD rotation, I would be over the moon. The problem is, he's the first, not the last. There's already plans for yet another 5 plus ERA back of the rotation filler guy who's just like the rest of a rotation full of back of the rotation filler guys, and no real movement yet ( and probably won't be) on a high end front of the rotation guy or three.


My guess he is last years Kevin Correia ,Terry sees what players are asking for, so lets sign somebody,anybody ...And maybe later sign somebody better.as long as Mike gets 16 million or under for 2 years Im ok with it.Especially if we add a better pitcher or 2 later

#22 johnnydakota

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Posted 26 November 2013 - 10:10 PM

That is the beauty of being a fan. LOTS of fans think they know how to run a MLB franchise better than those who have the job. Hard to imagine why they pay GMs $1M+ year when there are so many people working for $50K (or less) a year who can do the job better.


Ryan makes more then 1 million, geez his bonus is more then that

#23 SpiritofVodkaDave

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Posted 26 November 2013 - 10:17 PM

I would bet a good deal of posters here could do the job better. Unfortunately not one of us will ever get that chance.


Yeah, that frankly is BS. Terry Ryan didn't just wake up one day and become a GM, he busted his ass through the ranks for years, proving himself time and time again while working his way up the ladder.

While I don't have a problem with people criticizing him, I find it pretty ridiculous you claim a bunch of people here, the majority of which don't work in baseball at any capacity nor sports for that matter can do a better job.

I know several people who worked with Ryan (and Smith) personally, and they have nothing but great things to say about Ryan's knowledge and leadership abilities.

Edited by SpiritofVodkaDave, 26 November 2013 - 10:19 PM.


#24 johnnydakota

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Posted 26 November 2013 - 10:38 PM

SVD being in the publics eye and having a team that has more then struggled the last 3 years will open anyone to crititsim. You have your Ryanites and you have the other half.Im also guessing if you walk around saying your boss is worth less then a dung beattle , you dont stay employed very long.While Terry has some very good traits , he also has some bad one as well.
To me Terry Ryan takes more joy in signing florimon, a player who the other 29 GMs didnt think would work out , and goes on to have an ok 3-8 year career,then to sign the 1 player who all the other GMs want,who goes on to be an allstar

#25 Brandon

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Posted 26 November 2013 - 10:53 PM

on the same mlbtraderumors.com blurb that talked about Pelfry getting the Twins first contract offer of the offseason, They also mentioned that Arroyo was looking for a 3 year 27-30 million. if that's the case why not just sign him up and get that over with?

#26 SpiritofVodkaDave

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Posted 26 November 2013 - 10:58 PM

on the same mlbtraderumors.com blurb that talked about Pelfry getting the Twins first contract offer of the offseason, They also mentioned that Arroyo was looking for a 3 year 27-30 million. if that's the case why not just sign him up and get that over with?

Because going 3 years for Arroyo is not a prudent move?

#27 PseudoSABR

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Posted 26 November 2013 - 11:04 PM

Until we know the dollar amount, it seems pretty mad-happy to get infuriated about the proposal, especially since the same article admits how far apart they are on the money. I'd rather not have Pelfry back--but the Twins do need five starters, so if Pelfry coming back doesn't get in a way of more legitimate signings, it'd be hardly infuriating.

#28 notoriousgod71

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Posted 26 November 2013 - 11:09 PM

Until we know the dollar amount, it seems pretty mad-happy to get infuriated about the proposal, especially since the same article admits how far apart they are on the money. I'd rather not have Pelfry back--but the Twins do need five starters, so if Pelfry coming back doesn't get in a way of more legitimate signings, it'd be hardly infuriating.


It is infuriating because it's not improving the team. At best they will remain the exact same. It would be one thing if we were entertaining resigning someone like David Price, but Pelfrey just doesn't help this team in any significant way.

#29 notoriousgod71

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Posted 26 November 2013 - 11:12 PM

Yeah, that frankly is BS. Terry Ryan didn't just wake up one day and become a GM, he busted his ass through the ranks for years, proving himself time and time again while working his way up the ladder.

While I don't have a problem with people criticizing him, I find it pretty ridiculous you claim a bunch of people here, the majority of which don't work in baseball at any capacity nor sports for that matter can do a better job.

I know several people who worked with Ryan (and Smith) personally, and they have nothing but great things to say about Ryan's knowledge and leadership abilities.


Life is all about opportunity. I don't think it's impossible that some people that have no baseball related job could do a better job than him.

#30 SpiritofVodkaDave

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Posted 26 November 2013 - 11:15 PM

Life is all about opportunity. I don't think it's impossible that some people that have no baseball related job could do a better job than him.


"I'm a fan, how hard could being a GM be?"- David Kahn

It's not impossible, but that is a quick change of tune for your "a good number of posters here could do a better job etc etc"