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Fangraphs on Arcia's Power Potential

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#1 John Bonnes

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Posted 19 November 2013 - 07:40 AM

Fangraphs profiles Oswaldo Arcia in their fantasy baseball section today. There's a lot of fun stuff to digest. Here's what grabbed me:

Of the 16 hitters who recorded an average distance above 300 feet, Arcia’s HR/FB rate was the lowest, coming in just below 15%. The unweighted average of the group was 22%, while 11 of the 16 posted rates of at least 20%. This all suggests that Arcia could be due for a nice bump in HR/FB rate next year if he maintains that same distance.


Lots more to break down, including his strikeouts and split. Bottom line: they think he's a sleeper. I hope they're right.

#2 gunnarthor

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Posted 19 November 2013 - 08:16 AM

I wonder if that quoted section has something to do with Target Field. It seems to suppress LH power. If I was a team like the Rangers, I'd try and nab Arcia to replace Cruz. Either way, he's a nice guy to have for a rebuilding team.

#3 jay

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Posted 19 November 2013 - 08:19 AM

Thanks, John.

The piece that stands out to me is the BABIP and xBABIP talk. One of the first things I noticed about watching Oswaldo is that he goes up to the plate looking to hit the ball hard. It would make sense that hitting the ball harder than other players would lead to a higher than average BABIP.

I really wish we had access to something like batted ball speed as it would intuitivitely seem directly related to your success on any type of batted ball. You'd think with that data we could put together a much better 'xBABIP' and finally actually statistically identify who has been "hitting the ball hard at guys" vs just getting out due to weak contact.

#4 gunnarthor

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Posted 19 November 2013 - 08:56 AM

I really wish we had access to something like batted ball speed as it would intuitivitely seem directly related to your success on any type of batted ball. You'd think with that data we could put together a much better 'xBABIP' and finally actually statistically identify who has been "hitting the ball hard at guys" vs just getting out due to weak contact.


We don't but I think the Twins actually have that service. Goins mentioned that they were using some company (I forget the name) and that company was at the AFL trying to get more business. One of the things they did was track batted ball speeds (Kepler had one of the highest in the AFL). I have no idea what the Twins would use this information for but it's out there. Sorry I can't remember the company but someone else might.

#5 TheLeviathan

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Posted 19 November 2013 - 09:39 AM

Very encouraging, I think with all the Focus on our minors we have or gotten how high is ceiling still is.

#6 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 19 November 2013 - 09:47 AM

We don't but I think the Twins actually have that service. Goins mentioned that they were using some company (I forget the name) and that company was at the AFL trying to get more business. One of the things they did was track batted ball speeds (Kepler had one of the highest in the AFL). I have no idea what the Twins would use this information for but it's out there. Sorry I can't remember the company but someone else might.


In Twins Daily terms:

The Twins have hired a company that employs a guy who runs behind the ball with a pendulum and approximates traveling speed. At the end of the game, the Twins test him with several "if two trains are traveling at 60mph" questions, after which they study the results and then draft a pitcher.

#7 gunnarthor

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Posted 19 November 2013 - 10:02 AM

In Twins Daily terms:

The Twins have hired a company that employs a guy who runs behind the ball with a pendulum and approximates traveling speed. At the end of the game, the Twins test him with several "if two trains are traveling at 60mph" questions, after which they study the results and then draft a pitcher.


I looked it up. Jack Goins commented on Twinsdaily "A relatively new company TrackMan records much of the same info as Pitch f/x along with batted ball data. You should follow Josh Orenstein on Twitter at @JoshOrensteinTM. He is tweeting out a bunch of fun info from the Arizona Fall League right now."

Fangraphs had an article on TrackMan and Alex Meyer. And that twitter feed included lists of things like batted ball speed.

In any event, it sounded like the Twins used this company.

#8 kab21

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Posted 19 November 2013 - 10:48 AM

Thanks, John.

The piece that stands out to me is the BABIP and xBABIP talk. One of the first things I noticed about watching Oswaldo is that he goes up to the plate looking to hit the ball hard. It would make sense that hitting the ball harder than other players would lead to a higher than average BABIP.

I really wish we had access to something like batted ball speed as it would intuitivitely seem directly related to your success on any type of batted ball. You'd think with that data we could put together a much better 'xBABIP' and finally actually statistically identify who has been "hitting the ball hard at guys" vs just getting out due to weak contact.


xBAPIP obviously doesn't use batted ball speed but it's a lot more complex than you make it out to be. It also has a couple of components that try to incorporate power into the equation.

Arcia has a special hit tool but he has some stuff to work on.

#9 twinsfan34

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Posted 22 November 2013 - 02:20 PM

I think it could be worth mentioning that Arcia's numbers dipped a bit after the wrist injury too.

Target Field, at least early indications, don't favor power lefties. So that might be a factor, however, one he'll have to deal with.

I'm still pretty excited about Arcia. Only 23 this upcoming season. I think he can settle down into that .270-.310 seasons annually. He'll still strikeout 110-150 times a year though. I don't see that changing much. But he'll also hit 22-35 HR as well.

To me, he kind of came out of nowhere (well, AA, with a 3 weeks at AAA) to being on the Twins. So he really came up quickly.

I think he can be better than Kubel.

#10 Alex

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Posted 22 November 2013 - 02:26 PM

Target Field, at least early indications, don't favor power lefties. So that might be a factor, however, one he'll have to deal with.

.


Here it is again. I'd really appreciate some data or extended study on this as it is becoming a popular narrative. You did couch it at least, saying "early indicators..." but I'd still like to know what people are referencing when they point to this.

EDIT: I see that someone did post something in the other thread.

Edited by Alex, 22 November 2013 - 02:31 PM.


#11 twinsfan34

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Posted 22 November 2013 - 05:12 PM

Here it is again. I'd really appreciate some data or extended study on this as it is becoming a popular narrative. You did couch it at least, saying "early indicators..." but I'd still like to know what people are referencing when they point to this.

EDIT: I see that someone did post something in the other thread.



I agree Alex...

Can you post a link to that in here. I'd be curious as well.

Thanks

#12 nicksaviking

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Posted 22 November 2013 - 05:55 PM

Here it is again. I'd really appreciate some data or extended study on this as it is becoming a popular narrative. You did couch it at least, saying "early indicators..." but I'd still like to know what people are referencing when they point to this.

EDIT: I see that someone did post something in the other thread.


While I understand a reluctance to put too much stock in small samples, the article said the same thing he did. It's not like Fangraphs bases their theories on assumptions.

Just from the eye test though, Target Field seems to inhibit left handed line-drive hitters. Grip-it-and-rip-it uppercut hitters don't seem to have a problem, but line drive hitters don't usually seem to have enough loft to carry the wall.

#13 jay

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Posted 23 November 2013 - 09:36 AM

I agree Alex...

Can you post a link to that in here. I'd be curious as well.

Thanks


http://www.baseballp...php?cid=1405204

http://www.fangraphs...d=0&season=2013

#14 Hosken Bombo Disco

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Posted 23 November 2013 - 12:12 PM

Just from the eye test though, Target Field seems to inhibit left handed line-drive hitters. Grip-it-and-rip-it uppercut hitters don't seem to have a problem, but line drive hitters don't usually seem to have enough loft to carry the wall.


Agree. Any way to segregate data on OPS across parks for balls hit off the fence/wall? My eye test tells me that TF produces single-base hits (not even a double sometimes) off the granite outcrop that a few feet higher would be home runs.

#15 jay

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Posted 23 November 2013 - 10:03 PM

Agree. Any way to segregate data on OPS across parks for balls hit off the fence/wall? My eye test tells me that TF produces single-base hits (not even a double sometimes) off the granite outcrop that a few feet higher would be home runs.


I don't think you'll find data that specific anywhere. For what it's worth, only HR as LH is below league average. LH hitters in TF are able to hit singles, doubles, and triples at league average or higher rates.

#16 YourHouseIsMyHouse

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Posted 24 November 2013 - 12:45 AM

There's also a good piece (and humorous) article on Aaron Hicks. Let's just say they aren't as optimistic. I figured these are kind of related and a new post really wouldn't bolster the conversation.

http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/aaron-hicks-a-lost-cause/