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Article: The Ripple Effect of Mauer's Move to First

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#1 Cody Christie

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Posted 11 November 2013 - 09:45 PM

You can view the page at http://twinsdaily.co...s-Move-to-First

#2 Shane Wahl

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Posted 11 November 2013 - 10:10 PM

It *should* mean that Chris Parmelee realizes he needs to learn left field to give himself a chance. Colabello can get nice spot starts here and there. If the Twins decide to leave Arcia in AAA for awhile, Parmelee can be in RF.

Pinto and Herrmann can hold down C. Unless the Twins want to find a way to bring in Salty (they won't be able to do so). I would be fully prepared to roll out with most of the youth movement now, and that includes Pinto, Herrmann, Hicks, and Arcia.

Maybe the Twins do what's wise and by August 1 Willingham and Doumit are gone.

The position players possibly on the team:

Dozier, 2B
Mauer, 1B
Buxton, CF
Sano, 3B
Arcia, DH
Hicks, RF
Rosario, LF
Pinto, C
Florimon, SS

Plouffe
Herrmann
Escobar
Parmelee or Colabello

#3 Bark's Lounge

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Posted 11 November 2013 - 10:27 PM

"lowly position like first base."

This is a bummer statement. Every position on the diamond is tremendously important.

I suppose Keith Hernandez was blocked from playing SS because of Garry Templeton and there was no room for Don Mattingly at SS because the legendary Bobby Meacham was manning SS. It takes a great amount of talent to play each and every position in MLB. Some teams may try to hide offense only players at 1B or the corner OF positions, but those moves are only made out of desperation or logjams.

Hot Diggity Damn... 1B is important!

PS: Sorry if I came across as a "Richard". The word "Lowly" made me feel very depressed for a minute. Mr. Hrbek, Mr. Mientkiewicz, and to a lesser extent Mr. Morneau saved or won some games for us with their glove work. I value first base and believe it not to be a place where you should dump your bat only players. No position should be treated that way - that is why the AL has a Designated Hitter.

#4 stringer bell

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Posted 11 November 2013 - 10:54 PM

While Mauer could perhaps play third or a corner outfield spot, he really projects to be an outstanding first baseman. I can't say he would be great at the other corners and the risk for injury probably goes up at the other positions. The important thing is to get Mauer in the lineup as often as possible and first base is the best alternative. Add in that there is no incumbent or hot prospect in the upper minors and the decision is a slam dunk.

#5 ND-Fan

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Posted 11 November 2013 - 10:59 PM

This is just beginning of transition of Twins for 2015 and 2016 seasons. Colabella, Parmlee, Plouffe, are at the beginning of season to have roster spots but as season goes along they are going to be replaced by Sano, Buxton, and few other of twins prospects. This coming year could be worst of records for the Twins in that they could come close to loosing 100 games. They are gambling on All Star game to attrack attendance for beginning of the season and they will market these prospects in latter half of season and for next season. Only thing that could keep down the loses will be if Twins were to sign some significant pitching talent but I am betting they are trying to get by again see what magic in the bottle they can get out they have and let youngster develop pitching at end of season. Then they will look maybe next year at trading for some pitching but I wouldn't hold my breath on that either. The Twins are going to do this hard way by doing it internally by signing and drafting and occasional trade for some prospect to fill a need. Its sad that as fans we have to compete as bottom feeder organization when by revenue stream, possible attendance, and ownership that is able to sustain financial setbacks we could be upper middle tier team. I think this organization has not caught up with the fact they are not lowly Twins with poor ownership, poor stadium, and no revenue equality in baseball. They need to think of themselves as upper class team and winning is imperative to keep this in place for the future. They are not team they were 20 years ago when a lot of people working for this organization worked there fannies off to save the franchise but organization that can compete financially with most teams.

#6 spideyo

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Posted 12 November 2013 - 02:29 AM

If he's smart, Collabello is spendng all off-season working on his 3b skills. I'm really curious now to hear how much Doumit will want to catch next year, that could really shake things up.

#7 Marta Shearing

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Posted 12 November 2013 - 04:22 AM

2015: Lets roll!

1B Mauer
2B Dozier
SS Santana/Polanco
3B Sano
LF Rosario
CF Buxton
RF Hicks
DH Arcia
C Pinto

DON'T trade Rosario! I love this lineup!

#8 SpitefulRabbit617

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Posted 12 November 2013 - 06:46 AM

For some reason I'm just thinking Colabello leaving the Twins will be the Big Papi story 2.0. Straight to Boston.........................

#9 SgtSchmidt11

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Posted 12 November 2013 - 07:29 AM

I would just as soon give the job to Pinto and see what he does. I don't want the Twins to sign Salty or anyone else. Perhaps only a really good defensive catcher for a almost league minimum...now where could the Twins get somebody like that?...:D

#10 twinsfan34

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Posted 12 November 2013 - 10:23 AM

Agree with SgtSchmidt. Want to see what Pinto can do. We have 2 pretty solid catching prospects in the minors. Brian Naverreto and Stuart Turner. They could be MLB ready by late 2015 to 2016. Be nice to know if Pinto is every day material or a hitting option or whatever.

The luxury of losing is you can really find out what you have.

Jose Fernandez got a chance with the Marlins after being in High A-ball. Florida State League, yes, where Byron Buxton ended up last year while hitting .326.

So "if" there's a luxury of losing, it's that you can find out what you have in your minors sooner. Perhaps the equivalent of spending $15M on average free agent pitching, only nice thing is you're not committed to that bum of a free agent pitcher and his salary for a long period of time.

#11 jmlease1

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Posted 12 November 2013 - 10:27 AM

With Herrmann and Doumit in the organization there's no real need to go get another catcher. You go in with Pinto the presumed starter with Doumit expected to be a "super-sub" at catcher, 1B, DH, and OF and Herrmann to be the full-time backup who gets maybe 1 start a week.

Not sure there's room for both Collabello & Parmelee on the roster this season, especially with the Twins seeming desire (need?) to keep 12 pitchers. Bad luck for them, but neither has exactly seized their opportunities to show they can be consistent MLB hitters. Even worse, neither has shown a platoon split that would increase their value as a bench bat/situational hitter.

Doumit still has pretty good value as long as he can still catch some, so I'm not going to clamor for him to be dealt just to open up a spot. Willingham might have a little value as a 1 year rental if he proves he's healthy.

If Sano is ready to make the jump, I'd like to see this Twins lineup:

1B Mauer
2B Dozier
RF Arcia
DH Willingham
3B Sano
LF Plouffe
C Pinto
CF Hicks
SS Florimon

If Sano's not ready (and please, please don't rush him!) then Colabello/Parmelee has the first shot at RF with Plouffe staying at 3B and Arcia going back to LF. Which will be a brutal defensive lineup, but that's the way it goes.

#12 DJL44

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Posted 12 November 2013 - 10:34 AM

The Twins have two more option years on Colabello and should use those options to stash him in AAA as a backup in case of injury. I'm not worried about David Ortiz redux. Worst case scenario is Colabello doesn't get his shot to be another Garrett Jones.

I don't like signing AJ Pierzysnki because he is not a good defender behind the plate anymore. I want to see them sign a catcher with a good glove to help the pitchers prevent runs.

#13 James

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Posted 12 November 2013 - 12:10 PM

The person that I think this move has the most impact for is Plouffe. Think about it, Joe is at 1st, probably going to have Sano at 3b by mid summer. The outfield is going to be manned by Willingham, probably Hicks by some point in the summer, Arcia, possibly (very optimistically) Buxton at some point in the summer, not to mention any number of other options that might claim a spot like Parmalee, Colabello, Presley... I don't really see him as a DH. He is starting to look like a man without a position.
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#14 Rusty

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Posted 12 November 2013 - 12:43 PM

Because of this ripple affect, I have to wonder what's going to happen to Twins prospects close to being ready. Colabello and Parmelee have already been mentioned. Willingham and Doumit (I highly doubt you'll see him catching much next season leaving outfield, DH and maybe first as his only positions.) are already on the roster and should be in that mix for the next couple years. Presley and Mastoianni are there as well. Not to mention Plouffe might loose his third base job soon. Leaving OF as his new home. Hicks, Arcia, Rosario, Buxton, and Kepler are one to three years away. Essentially you will have 12 players fighting for 4 starting spots the next couple years. Of those 12, four could have played first. Kepler, Colabello, Parmelee, and Doumit. Now they are on top of the outfield log jam. That means somebody WILL be traded. Which brings me to my question...

Who is the most likely to be traded out of this group? What would be an acceptable trade? Can you get MLB ready guys for any of these guys? Or at least high end prospects? Who will play the outfield and DH in 2015

Edited by Rusty, 12 November 2013 - 12:45 PM.


#15 SweetOne69

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Posted 12 November 2013 - 12:46 PM

I have to laugh at anybody who thinks that Sano and Buxton will be with the Twins before September 2014.

#16 DJL44

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Posted 12 November 2013 - 01:10 PM

I have to laugh at anybody who thinks that Sano and Buxton will be with the Twins before September 2014.


All Sano has to do is beat out Trevor Plouffe. That isn't impossible for a player already hitting well in AA.

#17 SweetOne69

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Posted 12 November 2013 - 01:58 PM

Sano has been above AA yet. While his power remained when he moved up to AA, every other part of his offense went down. He has to show improvement before being moved up, plus he defense still needs a lot of work.

#18 Oldtwinkiesfan

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Posted 12 November 2013 - 02:11 PM

I have to agree with SweetOne; there is no way Sano and Buxton can be counted on for the Twins this year. To count on Sano breezing through AAA and being in the majors in 2014 is foolish. He struck out a lot at AA last year. Let's see how he handles a higher level of pitching before we anoint him the savior ( remember Hicks and Gibson last year? ). As for Buxton; projecting a 19 year old kid to tear up AA and AAA and make the leap to the major leagues is more than foolish. I hope (know?) TR is not counting on those guys. Let's hope he does the smart thing and gets some legitimate starting pitching, that Willingham and Doumit return to 2012 form, that Mauer hits better (more power?) by getting out from behind the plate, Arcia is 100% healthy and hits for power, and Dozier continues his development. If all those things happen, they may have a competitive team in 2014.

#19 Paul Pleiss

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Posted 12 November 2013 - 03:08 PM

How does the move effect Mauer's annual all-star status and his eventual HOF status? I think both take a serious hit with the move to first. I still see him as HOFer, but his all-star status, at least his chance to start regularly is definitely in jeopardy.

#20 spideyo

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Posted 12 November 2013 - 03:22 PM

especially with the Twins seeming desire (need?) to keep 12 pitchers.


I would be ecstatic if we carried 12 pitchers all year in 2014, especially if the other 13 guys were actually all healthy.
It's tough to manage a team well when you keep having 2-3 guys availible off the bench.

As far as ripple effects go, I really think that Plouffe and Parmelee are at high risk of being out of the Twins organization before opening day. They both have been inconsistent with their offense, and neither have shown stellar enough defense to ride on that. Even without Sano, Plouffe is going to have competition from Escobar, Bartlett, Bernier, and possibly Florimon. Only one of those guys can be the starting shortstop and I'm sure the rest would rather be starting 3B than utility guy.

#21 Riverbrian

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Posted 12 November 2013 - 03:24 PM

I hope Sano is really special and comes in mid-season and tears it up.

He Might... He Might Not...

What I want to see happen doesn't always match with the reality of what will happen.

I'd rather not burn his MLB time watching him struggle... I don't want him learning while the Arb clock ticks... When Sano comes up... I want him to hit the ground running and provide a big boost ala Puig, Harper, Braun or Trout. If he's ready to do that out of Spring Training... Bring him on... If not... Let's wait.
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#22 twinsfan34

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Posted 12 November 2013 - 03:36 PM

All Sano has to do is beat out Trevor Plouffe. That isn't impossible for a player already hitting well in AA.


Humorous, yet true. All he has to do is hit at or above .230 and more than 12 HR.

I don't think that'd be a problem.

Look at Manny Machado. He only hit .266 at AA.

His AVG/OBP/SLG line looks like this .266/.352/.438. 10.5% BB/PA and 15.3% SO/PA.

Miguel Sano's AVG/OBP/SLG line: .236/.344/.571. 13.0% BB/PA and 29.3% SO/PA.

Larry Walker's SO/PA at AA was 21.7%. He only hit .287. He went on to win 3 batting titles.

#23 twinsfan34

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Posted 12 November 2013 - 03:38 PM

How does the move effect Mauer's annual all-star status and his eventual HOF status? I think both take a serious hit with the move to first. I still see him as HOFer, but his all-star status, at least his chance to start regularly is definitely in jeopardy.


Paul, I had the same questions. I expounded upon them a bit here.

http://twinsdaily.com/entry.php?b=4619

#24 ajstolt_09

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Posted 12 November 2013 - 03:44 PM

I think the biggest ripple that comes from this is that Collabello and Parmalee have very little rope left, and are both most likely destined for bench roles or being in AAA. Arcia should start in right if we are trying to develop our young guys. Mauer should play EVERYDAY(162 games) at first base, or DH. That leaves no room for Parm or Collabello, which doesn't hurt my feelings. They are both frustrating to watch at the plate. I give Collabello a slight edge because at least he has hit a few home runs. So anyone talking about one of them being in a starting lineup to start the year....I cringe at that thought!!!

Would also love to see Sano start the year with the Twins. There is no reason to wait. He crushes no matter what level he has been at. I think we could expect 25-30 HR's from both Sano and Arcia next year. And if we think logically, Sano is most likely every bit as solid at 3B as Plouffe is, if not better! And that's more of an indictment of Plouffe's defense than it is a compliment on Sano's. I will be annoyed if he isn't there starting the season.

#25 Thrylos

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Posted 12 November 2013 - 03:47 PM

I have to laugh at anybody who thinks that Sano and Buxton will be with the Twins before September 2014.


Wonder how many of these who think that Sano & Buxton should be up ASAP, also think that Hicks was rushed last season and should have started at AAA...

Another thing, because I hear it a lot: Danny Santana is a great player with a lot of speed and potential, but at this point his minor league numbers are slightly worse than Florimon's. I really am not that sure about him being better than Florimon in the majors at this point, unless he has a couple of break-through seasons. At this point the Twins' system is really lacking in SS.

Speaking of break-through seasons, based on what he did in AAA last season and the way he started in Venezuela this season, I will not be surprised if Eduardo Escobar wins and keeps the SS job. He is 24 and another of those guys who was rushed to the majors...
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#26 Thrylos

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Posted 12 November 2013 - 03:51 PM

Collabello and Parmalee have very little rope left,.


Those 2 do not belong in the same sentence: Colabello is 30 and at his prime and ready to decline. Parmelee is 25 and has not entered his prime yet. Also, unlike Colabello who was signed from the independent leagues, he was a first round pick. And the Twins do everything to try to make their first round picks successful. So he does have some rope left, especially since this is his last option year. There might have to be a decision next off-season, but there is a lot of baseball between now and then.
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#27 Riverbrian

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Posted 12 November 2013 - 04:11 PM

Those 2 do not belong in the same sentence: Colabello is 30 and at his prime and ready to decline. Parmelee is 25 and has not entered his prime yet. Also, unlike Colabello who was signed from the independent leagues, he was a first round pick. And the Twins do everything to try to make their first round picks successful. So he does have some rope left, especially since this is his last option year. There might have to be a decision next off-season, but there is a lot of baseball between now and then.


I agree... Parmelee should be given plenty of rope. The light bulb can always turn on for a player with potential and it doesn't always turn on right away.

Colabello needs to stand closer to the plate and start turning on some balls. Colabello should be in Rochester again to figure that part out. His power could be a nice boost for a year or two... or five... if he can figure that out. Until then... I will remain weary.
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#28 twinsfan34

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Posted 12 November 2013 - 04:11 PM

Paul, I had the same questions. I expounded upon them a bit here.

http://twinsdaily.com/entry.php?b=4619


My apologies Paul...you have your own podcast.

http://talk2contact....T16_19_20-08_00

So...yeaaaaaaah.

Edited by twinsfan34, 12 November 2013 - 04:25 PM.


#29 70charger

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Posted 12 November 2013 - 04:45 PM

How does the move effect Mauer's annual all-star status and his eventual HOF status? I think both take a serious hit with the move to first. I still see him as HOFer, but his all-star status, at least his chance to start regularly is definitely in jeopardy.


I actually think it's good and bad. As a catcher, he's not playing 10 more years. As a 1B, he probably is. Think of all the hits! Voters love counting stats.

I also think that he declines more slowly, meaning that he could have some pretty impressive seasons even as an "old guy." Think Wade Boggs - he hit .300 when he was past forty years old.

Of course, there will be a WAR difference without the boost from catcher, and there is the fact that bat-only type players that end up at 1B are going to be compared to Mauer from here on out.

But even if Mauer isn't the clear-cut number one bat at 1B, I still think he accumulates enough WAR to make him a HOF shoo-in. Besides, I think everybody knows that he didn't want to move from catcher, and they won't penalize him for it. Call it the "Puckett effect." The circumstances are out of his control at this point.

In any case, I think his body of work thus far leaves him maybe 2 or 3 more .850-.900 OPS seasons away from a no-doubter.

#30 YourHouseIsMyHouse

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Posted 12 November 2013 - 04:52 PM

I have to laugh at anybody who thinks that Sano and Buxton will be with the Twins before September 2014.


It might be a little unlikely, but I wouldn't throw it out and laugh. The Twins have had multiple prospects like Dozier and Hicks skip AAA and go to the bigs. Sano did very well in AA too and only needs a little more polish. Mike Trout was called up to the Angels the year after he completed High A on July 8th of the following season. Since he is about the closest comparison to Buxton, it's quite possible he's up before September 2014 too. I'd like to add that Mauer was also called up the season after his first taste of A+.

However, it's more important that the Twins do what's best.

Edited by Riverbrian, 12 November 2013 - 05:01 PM.
A couple of sentences were rule violations