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Thoughts on a hypothesized trade

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#1 the_youngster

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Posted 03 November 2013 - 05:15 PM

Earlier today it was rumored that the Cardinals may be willing to trade Shelby Miller (or Lance Lynn, but Miller should be the target) for a SS. While the Twins do not have a SS worthy of trading, the Rangers do in Elvis Andrus. This is a possibility to send either Arcia or Hicks to the Rangers, who send Andrus to the Cardinals, who send Miller to us. Granted the Rangers may simply want Miller, but they could use a young outfielder for the future post Rios and Cruz. Thoughts?

#2 Oxtung

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Posted 03 November 2013 - 06:50 PM

Andrus has a pretty hefty salary. Would the Cards be willing to take on that salary commitment? Cleveland, Oakland and the Cubs are some more options with SS's potentially available. The problem seems to be what you already stated, every team needs starting pitching.

#3 the_youngster

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Posted 03 November 2013 - 08:17 PM

Yeah I have a personal affinity towards Miller, so when his name comes up in the mill I definitely would try to act. It seems like a trade which could be done, but would need to be negotiated right. Maybe send cash to STL (the Pohlads are willing to use money, granted this would be an odd way). But a rotation at the end of 2014 with Miller, Meyer, and Gibson sounds pretty enticing. Add in a free agent signing (perhaps Hughes) and thats an actual solid rotation, not just a passable one.

#4 goulik

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Posted 03 November 2013 - 09:19 PM

So what if I want Andrus and Miller?

#5 the_youngster

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Posted 03 November 2013 - 10:30 PM

Andrus is a nice shortstop, but both would just be a pipe dream. Honestly, I would love to also nab Kozma as some insurance for Florimon. Let the best one survive as the SS, while the other is on the bench.

#6 Brandon

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Posted 04 November 2013 - 04:09 AM

Both the Rangers and Twins could kick in some money to even out the trade some but Andrus is owed 120 million while the other 2 players mentioned have yet to go to arbitration. We may need to expand that trade a little more to even things out a little but it is a good framework to start with.

#7 nicksaviking

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Posted 04 November 2013 - 07:57 AM

When you simplify this deal and look at what the Twins are giving up compared to what they are getting, you are suggesting trading Hicks or Arcia for Shelby Miller. I think we are overvaluing the Twins players by a ton. To get Miller, you probably have to give up Sano.

Miller was the #6 prospect heading into this season and just put together a fantastic rookie season.

#8 Rosterman

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Posted 04 November 2013 - 08:25 AM

Hicks has potential still, but not that much in the eyes of the other teams. Needs to tear up AAA for a season and show some non-September good at bats in the majors. Arcia is a trade chip, and I almost would be willing to deal him sooner rather than later...although he could turn into another David Ortiz. The magic word is COULD. Sano is such an interesting chip. Is he really the third baseman of the future, or will he end up a corner outfielder, DH, or 1B. Is his true value with the Twins as a trade chip. Do you risk taking that chance, trading a prospect for something proven. And when you look at teams looking for middle infielders, you realize how weak the Twins are in that area (does anyone want Dozier or Florimon) and the pipeline is full of players, but not potential fielding/batting aces. Sadly, going into 2014, the Twins are buyers...more than likely just with money, and not traders. Except for Perkins (and there is a crop of closers to fill every need at the moment, for a price) and Mauer...there really isn't anyone a team needs now from Minnesota to give the Twins something worthwhile back in exchange. Even the Doumits and Willinghams are prospect bait. So looks like a ton of minor league free agents to showoff and maybe flip for more prospects, and a couple of mid-level free agents or guys looking for a comeback (Hughes, Kubel etc. that you CAN flip midseason....like we did Pelfrey, right). Terry Ryan is walking around with an open checkbook, but he may still come up a zero short on most offers.
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#9 Hosken Bombo Disco

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Posted 04 November 2013 - 11:20 AM

And when you look at teams looking for middle infielders, you realize how weak the Twins are in that area (does anyone want Dozier or Florimon) and the pipeline is full of players, but not potential fielding/batting aces. Sadly, going into 2014, the Twins are buyers


My impression was that our middle infield was greater than the sum of its parts in the field. Both of those guys also have some speed and some pop and some say Dozier/will can be a 270 hitter. Which granted, has nothing to do with a hypothetical trade for Shelby Miller.

#10 Physics Guy

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Posted 04 November 2013 - 01:50 PM

Miller for Profar is the trade both teams might consider. My guess is Texas might want a little more and because of that the trade wouldn't happen. St. Louis probably wants nothing to do with Andrus' salary. Just because we want Miller doesn't mean we have a snowball's chance in hell of being involved in this trade. I don't see how we can get involved unless Sano or Buxton are part of it.

#11 Physics Guy

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Posted 04 November 2013 - 01:57 PM

I still don't get why the Rangers didn't trade Andrus last year before giving him that contract. He had a .659 OPS last year. After this year (when he makes $6.475M) he will be making $15M a year for the next eight and they have what everybody believes is an excellent replacement for him in Profar.

#12 Riverbrian

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Posted 04 November 2013 - 02:20 PM

Shortstops are expensive. We just need to look at the price paid for Gregarious last year... Or even the price paid for Iglasias mid season.

Shortstops are expensive. The Cards would have to give up Miller and maybe more.

In my opinion... The Twins would have to give up Sano or Buxton just to get a sniff at a top ranked SS that could be flipped for a SP.

Reportedly... The Rangers wouldn't part with Andrus for Upton. The Indians reportedly turned down Upton for A. Cabrera.

SS's are expensive... The Twins would have an easier time acquiring a SP for something else in a trade if they didn't go through the SS Middle Man to get it done... in my opinion.
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#13 SgtSchmidt11

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Posted 04 November 2013 - 05:13 PM

When you simplify this deal and look at what the Twins are giving up compared to what they are getting, you are suggesting trading Hicks or Arcia for Shelby Miller. I think we are overvaluing the Twins players by a ton. To get Miller, you probably have to give up Sano.Miller was the #6 prospect heading into this season and just put together a fantastic rookie season.

Except that the Cards are unreasonably deep at SP and that would be a card worth playing. I think it would keep the Twins out of Sano and Buxton territory. Might be a good place to use Rosario & Arcia though. (not sure if I would do that but I think that might get it done)

#14 Physics Guy

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Posted 04 November 2013 - 09:15 PM

Except that the Cards are unreasonably deep at SP and that would be a card worth playing. I think it would keep the Twins out of Sano and Buxton territory. Might be a good place to use Rosario & Arcia though. (not sure if I would do that but I think that might get it done)


I think I would give the Cards any three guys that aren't Sano, Buxtton or Meyer for Miller. The problem is that they want a SS.

#15 cmb0252

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Posted 04 November 2013 - 09:24 PM

Except that the Cards are unreasonably deep at SP and that would be a card worth playing. I think it would keep the Twins out of Sano and Buxton territory. Might be a good place to use Rosario & Arcia though. (not sure if I would do that but I think that might get it done)


They have Kolten Wong and Oscar Tavares so I doubt they would want Arcia or Rosario. I just don't see a match between these two teams.

#16 amjgt

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Posted 04 November 2013 - 09:40 PM

Andrus has a pretty hefty salary. Would the Cards be willing to take on that salary commitment? Cleveland, Oakland and the Cubs are some more options with SS's potentially available. The problem seems to be what you already stated, every team needs starting pitching.

According to my Cardinals friends, they have a bunch of money coming off the books this offseason.

Like $120M down to $70M committed in 2014

#17 ashburyjohn

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Posted 05 November 2013 - 11:39 AM

According to my Cardinals friends, they have a bunch of money coming off the books this offseason.

Like $120M down to $70M committed in 2014


Looks approximately correct. There are a couple of sources I know of for verification. baseball-reference.com currently has links on their front page, when you click on teams in the standings, that show their financials for 2014 and beyond, and Cot's Contracts at Baseball Prospectus has similar spreadsheets. So, we don't have to guess, or rely solely on friends in other cities. :)

For StL the specific links these bring you to are:


Both these show a commitment of $75-76M. They don't seem to take into account approximate expenditures on arbitration-eligible players, though - that's down in the "noise" region of financial forecasting, I guess, but still puts the team on the hook for a somewhat higher total than shown, maybe $85M when all is said and done. In any case, yes they'll have room to acquire some serious talent.

Edited by ashburyjohn, 05 November 2013 - 11:41 AM.


#18 Oxtung

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Posted 05 November 2013 - 12:45 PM

Looks approximately correct. There are a couple of sources I know of for verification. baseball-reference.com currently has links on their front page, when you click on teams in the standings, that show their financials for 2014 and beyond, and Cot's Contracts at Baseball Prospectus has similar spreadsheets. So, we don't have to guess, or rely solely on friends in other cities. :)

For StL the specific links these bring you to are:


Both these show a commitment of $75-76M. They don't seem to take into account approximate expenditures on arbitration-eligible players, though - that's down in the "noise" region of financial forecasting, I guess, but still puts the team on the hook for a somewhat higher total than shown, maybe $85M when all is said and done. In any case, yes they'll have room to acquire some serious talent.


Baseball reference has arbitration estimates available and roster filler estimates on their team pages. It is under the "payroll" tab. I can't look right now to find out what they are estimating because I'm late for a meeting right now. Damn TD. ;)

#19 nicksaviking

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Posted 05 November 2013 - 01:25 PM

Except that the Cards are unreasonably deep at SP and that would be a card worth playing. I think it would keep the Twins out of Sano and Buxton territory. Might be a good place to use Rosario & Arcia though. (not sure if I would do that but I think that might get it done)


Having depth at a traditionally low depth position doesn't make a team desperate. Not having the depth makes you desperate. Thus the Cardinals have the luxery of doing nothing while the Twins are the ones with desperation on their side.

The loaded Cardinals aren't going to do the Twins a favor simply because they can afford to. That would be the first step the Cardinals would take to become un-loaded. Rosario + Arcia does not equal a potential perennial Cy Young contender. Miller has already proven his worth, neither Rosario or Arcia have. The Cardinals being the smartest team in the league are well aware of that. It would take an elite prospect and the Twins only have two of those.

#20 YourHouseIsMyHouse

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Posted 05 November 2013 - 06:41 PM

I read that there's probably not anything to those trade rumors. Lance Lynn interests me and I wouldn't mind if we pursued him. I have no interest in Miller. His cost is going to be ridiculous and I'm not convinced he's more than a two-trick pony just yet. His fastball and curveball are both very good, but I think he still lacks a third pitch. His changeup isn't anything special (A measly 8.3% swinging strikes) and I think players are going to catch up to him if he doesn't develop it.

Lynn, on the other hand, has a pretty deep arsenal and would be a more reasonably priced above average starter.

Edited by YourHouseIsMyHouse, 05 November 2013 - 06:44 PM.