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Article: Minnesota Twins Top 50 Prospects: 16-20

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#1 Seth Stohs

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Posted 01 November 2013 - 07:50 AM

You can view the page at http://twinsdaily.co...Prospects-16-20

#2 Tibs

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Posted 01 November 2013 - 08:59 AM

It sounds like we have some pretty talented pitchers in the lower levels. Where do Eades and Rogers start next year, and how quickly could they move up?

#3 righty8383

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Posted 01 November 2013 - 09:33 AM

Interesting to see Fernando Romero in the top 20. I suppose the development of his secondary pitches will determine if he ends up being a starter or a reliever.

#4 DAM DC Twins Fans

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Posted 01 November 2013 - 09:38 AM

Surprised to see Eades this high. You pointed out his disastrous numbers this year. 2014 is a key year for him--presumably at Cedar Rapids. For me, he must show something or I will consider him a bust. On the other hand, another chip for Gonsalves to have on his shoulder considering the Twins picked Eades ahead of him...

#5 Smcginnity

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Posted 01 November 2013 - 09:52 AM

I read this blog daily and barely know about Fernando Romero. I realize he is in the GCL but I know Thorpe, Rosario, Jorge, Landa but this Romero kid...I have never heard anything about him really.

Is there a prediction on which pitchers will start where next season? It seems like we have a plethora of starting pitchers but not enough spots to start them. I imagine the following:

Rochester:
Logan Darnell
Alex Meyer
Trevor May
Pat Dean
Tom Stuifbergen

New Britain:
Taylor Rogers
DJ Baxendale
Matt Summers
Alex Wimmers
Tyler Duffey

Fort Myers:
Jose Berrios
Ryan Eades
Mason Melotakis
Tim Atherton
Tim Shibuya
Hudson Boyd
Jason Wheeler

Cedar Rapids (This is where it gets tough...):
Kohl Stewart
Yorman Landa
Lewis Thorpe
Miguel Sulbaran
Randy Rosario
Felix Jorge
Stephen Gonsalves
Aaron Slegers


What say you Seth?

#6 Smcginnity

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Posted 01 November 2013 - 09:54 AM

Plus we have Kuo Hu Lo and Fernando Romero...not a bad problem to have I guess :)

#7 SarasotaBill

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Posted 01 November 2013 - 11:08 AM

Romero over Jorge Felix seems like a stretch.

Rogers over Baxendale doesn't make sense. Baxendale was pushed faster and he totally dominated A+ where Rogers finished.
Baxendale was drafted in 2012 where Rogers was drafted in 2011 (both from college).
Obviously the Twins see more potential with Baxendale since they pushed him ahead of the 2011 draft class.
Yes - he struggled in AA but Hicks struggled in the Majors because he wasn't ready for that level.

#8 John Bonnes

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Posted 01 November 2013 - 11:46 AM

Seth, I've got a general question about your rankings, driven by Rogers being in the top 20....

How much weight do you give to strikeout rates?

Rogers is 22 years old and posted 83K in 123 IP in HIgh A, in a pitcher's league. To me, that seems like a guy who almost no chance of having any meaningful career in MLB, not even as a reliever.

Now, maybe at this number, none of these guys have much hope of a MLB career, but I would think Goodrum would, and relievers that are lower on this list might too. So is there something you know about Roger that we don't - like he's an extreme groundball guy or something - or do you discount strikeout rate, which I notice you often don't include if it's not impressive.

Thanks.

#9 Thrylos

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Posted 01 November 2013 - 12:02 PM

Unfortunately, the similarities of Vargas aka Baby Papi with Big Papi expand to the way the Twins are thinking of them. There was absolutely no reason for Vargas not to move to New Britain when Sano and Rosario did. At the all star break he was hitting .286/.364/.542 (.906 OPS, pretty close to Eddie Rosario's .903 with the Miracle) with 12 HR and 51 RBI. Instead the Twins signed 27 year old non-prospect Reynaldo Rodriguez to play first base for the Rock Cats.

I just hope that history does not repeat itself here...

#10 DJL44

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Posted 01 November 2013 - 12:19 PM

Did they keep Vargas at Ft Myers so he could work with the trainers? I have heard the training facilities are the best there.

#11 Wookiee of the Year

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Posted 01 November 2013 - 12:27 PM

the similarities between Vargas and his friend David Ortiz are stunning.

Do you mean that literally--are Vargas and Ortiz friends? Or do you mean it in the Senatorial, "My good friend from West Virginia" way?

#12 Seth Stohs

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Posted 01 November 2013 - 02:02 PM

It sounds like we have some pretty talented pitchers in the lower levels. Where do Eades and Rogers start next year, and how quickly could they move up?


I would guess Rogers starts in New Britain and Eades starts in Ft. Myers.

#13 Seth Stohs

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Posted 01 November 2013 - 02:04 PM

Surprised to see Eades this high. You pointed out his disastrous numbers this year. 2014 is a key year for him--presumably at Cedar Rapids. For me, he must show something or I will consider him a bust. On the other hand, another chip for Gonsalves to have on his shoulder considering the Twins picked Eades ahead of him...


We preach and preach and preach not to make a big deal out of the great numbers that college pitchers can put up in E-Town. I don't think it's worth worrying about what happened in 14-15 innings either. It's about 2 years too early to consider anything close to the word bust.

#14 Seth Stohs

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Posted 01 November 2013 - 02:08 PM

Do you mean that literally--are Vargas and Ortiz friends? Or do you mean it in the Senatorial, "My good friend from West Virginia" way?


When Ortiz started this season on the DL, he went to a few of the Miracle games. He has befriended Sano and Vargas. I can't speak to the extent of that, but I know there was time spent together.

#15 Outlier

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Posted 01 November 2013 - 02:09 PM

I read this blog daily and barely know about Fernando Romero. I realize he is in the GCL but I know Thorpe, Rosario, Jorge, Landa but this Romero kid...I have never heard anything about him really.

Is there a prediction on which pitchers will start where next season? It seems like we have a plethora of starting pitchers but not enough spots to start them. I imagine the following:

Rochester:
Logan Darnell
Alex Meyer
Trevor May
Pat Dean
Tom Stuifbergen

New Britain:
Taylor Rogers
DJ Baxendale
Matt Summers
Alex Wimmers
Tyler Duffey

Fort Myers:
Jose Berrios
Ryan Eades
Mason Melotakis
Tim Atherton
Tim Shibuya
Hudson Boyd
Jason Wheeler

Cedar Rapids (This is where it gets tough...):
Kohl Stewart
Yorman Landa
Lewis Thorpe
Miguel Sulbaran
Randy Rosario
Felix Jorge
Stephen Gonsalves
Aaron Slegers


What say you Seth?


That is quite a log jam, and you didn't even count the guys who don't make the majors such as Hendriks, Worley, Diamond, Albers, Walters, etc.

#16 cmb0252

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Posted 01 November 2013 - 02:13 PM

Eades is one of the most interesting Twins prospects to me. His "massive" 15.2 innings after an insanely long college season mean zero to me. If can add some more strength with professional trainers and figure out if he wants to throw a slider or a curve, instead of a slurve, he could be a steal. He was a top 20 draft prospect for most the year and ended in the top 35 of a lot of lists.

#17 Seth Stohs

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Posted 01 November 2013 - 02:14 PM

I imagine the following:

Rochester:
Logan Darnell
Alex Meyer
Trevor May
Pat Dean
Tom Stuifbergen

New Britain:
Taylor Rogers
DJ Baxendale
Matt Summers
Alex Wimmers
Tyler Duffey

Fort Myers:
Jose Berrios
Ryan Eades
Mason Melotakis
Tim Atherton
Tim Shibuya
Hudson Boyd
Jason Wheeler

Cedar Rapids (This is where it gets tough...):
Kohl Stewart
Yorman Landa
Lewis Thorpe
Miguel Sulbaran
Randy Rosario
Felix Jorge
Stephen Gonsalves
Aaron Slegers


What say you Seth?


Fun to think about, but just a few notes:

1.) remember that, especially in the lower levels, innings counts matter, so we'll likely see many of these guys get the opportunity to start throughout the year. Cedar Rapids went with a 6-man rotation this year, and even then, many of their starters got a couple of weeks in the bullpen too.
2.) Rochester - Stuifbergen is a free agent at this point. I know he's still talking with the Twins, but after having Tommy John mid-summer, he may not be back anyway until mid-season.
3.) Just because of innings, I wouldn't be at all shocked to see Alex Meyer get 3-4 starts in New Britain before moving up.
4.) That New Britain rotation sounds about right.
5.) Boyd may get another shot in the rotation, but ultimately, he could be a bullpen guy. (same with Melotakis, though I think he did enough to keep starting)
6.) I could see the Twins keeping a couple of those Cedar Rapids guys in EST due to weather concerns, but also just to keep them starting and stretched out so when there is a need, they can be called up.
7.) Guys like Shibuya and Atherton could pitch out of the bullpen. Sulburan pitched the full season at Low-A, he could/should move up to Ft. Myers' rotation too.
8.) Remember too that they will sign a few minor league contracts at those upper levels as well, as they should.

Edited by Seth Stohs, 01 November 2013 - 02:18 PM.
Added a couple more thoughts


#18 Seth Stohs

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Posted 01 November 2013 - 02:21 PM

Romero over Jorge Felix seems like a stretch.

Rogers over Baxendale doesn't make sense. Baxendale was pushed faster and he totally dominated A+ where Rogers finished.
Baxendale was drafted in 2012 where Rogers was drafted in 2011 (both from college).
Obviously the Twins see more potential with Baxendale since they pushed him ahead of the 2011 draft class.
Yes - he struggled in AA but Hicks struggled in the Majors because he wasn't ready for that level.


Rogers was the Twins 12th round pick in '12, one round after Baxendale. Both out of college. I would argue they should/could be closer together. Rogers gets bonus points for being left-handed and having a very good slider. He could drop a couple of spots due to lack of Ks. Baxendale should be up a few spots as well due to his pitch mix. I like both. They should be closer together. Having seen both, I'll stand by my slight edge to Rogers, though I know that most will disagree... (It's my list! HA!)

#19 Seth Stohs

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Posted 01 November 2013 - 02:28 PM

Seth, I've got a general question about your rankings, driven by Rogers being in the top 20....

How much weight do you give to strikeout rates?


It's a piece, for sure. If he averaged 8.0 K/9 or more, he'd probably be top 10. And, as I admitted in the previous message, I may have him a few spots too high. I put more weight on the pitches as I learn more about pitchers. I've seen him pitch a couple of times. Good low-90s fastball. Works quick. Good control. Terrific slider. Has the size to grow into a little more velocity.

At the end of the day, he might become Scott Diamond (pick which Scott Diamond you wish, the really good 2012 version or the not-so-good 2013 version), and he could be either one of those... or he may not advance beyond AA.

I do think K/9 is important, but it can't be the be all, end all for back-of-the-rotation ceiling guys.

#20 Seth Stohs

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Posted 01 November 2013 - 02:35 PM

Unfortunately, the similarities of Vargas aka Baby Papi with Big Papi expand to the way the Twins are thinking of them. There was absolutely no reason for Vargas not to move to New Britain when Sano and Rosario did. At the all star break he was hitting .286/.364/.542 (.906 OPS, pretty close to Eddie Rosario's .903 with the Miracle) with 12 HR and 51 RBI. Instead the Twins signed 27 year old non-prospect Reynaldo Rodriguez to play first base for the Rock Cats.

I just hope that history does not repeat itself here...


I guess you could argue that, or you could say that he struggled the rest of the way enough that his OPS dropped to .813.

I don't want to speak for the Twins, but I could venture a couple of guesses:

1.) It was his first full season. Remember last year, he missed a bunch of games at the beginning of the season due to his 50 game suspension. He tired.
2.) The Miracle lineup was different after Sano and Rosario moved. He didn't have the same protection in the lineup. They maybe wanted to see how he would respond when he was suddenly pitched a little differently.
3.) He is an absolute butcher at 1B. Why not let him spend more time with Doug Mientkeiwicz and see if he can get any better? What harm could that do?

I'm not saying that these are the reasons, but in my mind, they are very fair reasons. Also, Reynaldo Rodriguez had a solid year, and as Jack G mentioned in another thread response to you, sometimes those veteran types purpose is so that they don't hurt a prospect by moving him too quickly.

#21 Seth Stohs

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Posted 01 November 2013 - 02:37 PM

Did they keep Vargas at Ft Myers so he could work with the trainers? I have heard the training facilities are the best there.


They are the best, but I don't think that has anything to do with it.

#22 Seth Stohs

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Posted 01 November 2013 - 02:40 PM

Eades is one of the most interesting Twins prospects to me. His "massive" 15.2 innings after an insanely long college season mean zero to me. If can add some more strength with professional trainers and figure out if he wants to throw a slider or a curve, instead of a slurve, he could be a steal. He was a top 20 draft prospect for most the year and ended in the top 35 of a lot of lists.


Well put.

#23 Oxtung

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Posted 01 November 2013 - 05:47 PM

I read this blog daily and barely know about Fernando Romero. I realize he is in the GCL but I know Thorpe, Rosario, Jorge, Landa but this Romero kid...I have never heard anything about him really.

Is there a prediction on which pitchers will start where next season? It seems like we have a plethora of starting pitchers but not enough spots to start them. I imagine the following:

Rochester:
Logan Darnell
Alex Meyer
Trevor May
Pat Dean
Tom Stuifbergen

New Britain:
Taylor Rogers
DJ Baxendale
Matt Summers
Alex Wimmers
Tyler Duffey

Fort Myers:
Jose Berrios
Ryan Eades
Mason Melotakis
Tim Atherton
Tim Shibuya
Hudson Boyd
Jason Wheeler

Cedar Rapids (This is where it gets tough...):
Kohl Stewart
Yorman Landa
Lewis Thorpe
Miguel Sulbaran
Randy Rosario
Felix Jorge
Stephen Gonsalves
Aaron Slegers


What say you Seth?


I tried this same exercise following the season and came to the same general conclusion as you; there are a lot of pitchers vying for starting rolls, especially at the lower levels.

A couple of notes, IMO.
1) Rochester and NB are very similar to mine except I think Duffey starts at FM. He wasn't overly impressive at FM to end the season. I think Jason Wheeler gets the start at NB instead.

2) Sulbaran will start at FM while Atherton, Shibuya and Boyd will be in the Pen to start the season. Brett Lee will fit in here as well. Interesting to see if he's starting or a reliever to begin the season.

3)Thorpe will pitch at Elizabethton this season. His arm isn't ready for full season ball at this point. He only pitched 44 innings in 2013.

4) It will be very interesting to see where Stewart and Gonsalves pitch this season. Berrios got pushed to Beloit in 2013 but there were more openings in the rotation. Beloit 2014 is going to be extremely crowded. Jorge, Landa and Rosario will be starting which only leaves 2 or 3 other slots. Eades, Slegers, Hein Robb, Gonsalves, Stewart, Kuo Hua Lo and Josue Montanez all could be looking for starts.

5) Elizabethton will have a similar problem with Thorpe, Gibbons, Romero, Chih-Wei Hu, other GCL pitchers (there were a bunch who got starts and it's sometimes tough to figure out who will be "starters" at Elizabethton) and possibly Stewart and Gonsalves plus any pitchers they draft in 2014.

#24 SarasotaBill

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Posted 01 November 2013 - 08:27 PM

Rogers was the Twins 12th round pick in '12, one round after Baxendale. Both out of college. I would argue they should/could be closer together. Rogers gets bonus points for being left-handed and having a very good slider. He could drop a couple of spots due to lack of Ks. Baxendale should be up a few spots as well due to his pitch mix. I like both. They should be closer together. Having seen both, I'll stand by my slight edge to Rogers, though I know that most will disagree... (It's my list! HA!)


Text above states Rogers as 2011 pick (needs correction). I assumed it was correct.

I look at value this way: who would I'll be less willing to trade. Baxendale has shown a capability to dominate and the Twins have pushed him faster. Neither may make it but at least Baxendale has shown a higher ceiling.

#25 Wookiee of the Year

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Posted 01 November 2013 - 11:15 PM

When Ortiz started this season on the DL, he went to a few of the Miracle games. He has befriended Sano and Vargas. I can't speak to the extent of that, but I know there was time spent together.

Wow, that I had not heard before. Pretty cool little tidbit--thanks for passing it along!

#26 Han Joelo

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Posted 02 November 2013 - 05:45 AM

Interesting group. I too hadn't really heard of Romero, despite the inordinate amount of time I spend here. Goodrum is a favorite of mine, hopefully due for a breakout...I remember he was one of those raw, toolsy guys that would take time.

And Eades...I just hope he or Bard, or Gonsalves, or somebody develops so the narrative can become how great the Twins are at mining for overlooked talent. He could be the next Matt Moore...or the next Matt Bashore.

#27 jorgenswest

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Posted 02 November 2013 - 08:24 AM

At their ages, Hicks and Vargas needed to be pushed up last summer.

Hicks will have just turned 24 as the minor league season starts next year. Vargas is 23 and turns 24 in August. You might see catchers or possibly up the middle prospects at that age in AA. Those prospects have both parts of their game to develop.

You don't see bat only prospects at 24 in AA. The earlier mentioned David Ortiz started in High A and moved to AA and AAA all in his 21 year old season. Allen Craig was an older prospect for the Cardinals. Like Hicks, he was a college guy. He played his first full season in high A(22) and second full season at AA(23). He hit AAA at 24 in spite of being in college.

Vargas is on a similar age path as Craig, but he has been in pro ball since he was 18. If he was a prospect, he should have moved quicker. Hicks is behind by a year or two. He was a college player but so was Craig. If he was a prospect, he should have been moved up.

The Twins need one of these guys in AAA next year and one in AA. It is time to find out if they are prospects.

#28 orangevening

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Posted 02 November 2013 - 10:44 AM

4) It will be very interesting to see where Stewart and Gonsalves pitch this season. Berrios got pushed to Beloit in 2013 but there were more openings in the rotation. Beloit 2014 is going to be extremely crowded. Jorge, Landa and Rosario will be starting which only leaves 2 or 3 other slots. Eades, Slegers, Hein Robb, Gonsalves, Stewart, Kuo Hua Lo and Josue Montanez all could be looking for starts.



Crap, we traded our whole Cedar Rapids rotation to Oakland?!? I hope we got a good return. ;)

#29 Seth Stohs

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Posted 02 November 2013 - 10:54 AM

At their ages, Hicks and Vargas needed to be pushed up last summer.

The Twins need one of these guys in AAA next year and one in AA. It is time to find out if they are prospects.


I just don't get this line of thinking. I understand it in the form of a prospect list. The reason that Buxton and Sano are top prospects in baseball is, along with their amazing talent, their age to level of competition. They are the exceptions.

I just don't see the value in pushing a player based on age as opposed to readiness. If they get to the big leagues at 25 instead of 23, but they're in a better position to succeed, what's the negative?

Brian Dozier got to the big leagues less than 2 years after he signed, and he was 24, and yet, people thought he was old. That's just crazy to me.

Age is just one piece of a prospect list.

#30 YourHouseIsMyHouse

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Posted 02 November 2013 - 12:14 PM

Byron Buxton
Miguel Sano
Eddie Rosario
Alex Meyer
Trevor May
Jorge Polanco
Max Kepler
Travis Harrison
Adam Brett Walker
Josmil Pinto
Danny Santana
Jose Berrios

Kohl Stewart
Lewis Thorpe
Hudson Boyd

Decent, but probably not included:
Jason Wheeler-performance is good

Edited by YourHouseIsMyHouse, 02 November 2013 - 12:17 PM.