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Article: Minnesota Twins Top 50 Prospects: 31-35

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#1 Seth Stohs

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Posted 24 October 2013 - 10:23 PM

You can view the page at http://twinsdaily.co...Prospects-31-35

#2 YourHouseIsMyHouse

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Posted 24 October 2013 - 10:29 PM

Not a lot of exciting names in this bunch. More of an older group, but I like where all these players are at! I don't see overwhelming potential in any of these guys. Although, a few may beg to differ with Bard. I think if just one of these guys contributes (positively) in any way to the MLB team it would be a success. Sort of ditto with the recent posts.

#3 righty8383

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Posted 24 October 2013 - 10:33 PM

Tyler Jones has some good stuff but he was a bit old for the levels he pitched at. Luke Bard would be most likely of this group to reach the show, if he could just get and stay healthy. Darnell, despite his solid numbers, just doesn't really feel like a prospect to me.

#4 Kwak

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Posted 24 October 2013 - 11:12 PM

Tyler Jones has some good stuff but he was a bit old for the levels he pitched at. Luke Bard would be most likely of this group to reach the show, if he could just get and stay healthy. Darnell, despite his solid numbers, just doesn't really feel like a prospect to me.


If Jones is projected as a relief pitcher, then age shouldn't matter as much as for a starter. To me, his evaluation should be based on his level of dominance and the likelihood that this could contribute. A really good RP can last to a 40 year-old. But this raises the question: should there be a separate "prospect list" for relief pitchers? Their function limits their impact in any game.

#5 clutterheart

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Posted 25 October 2013 - 02:38 AM

If I was a betting man I would say that Darnell starts 10 games or more for the twins next year.

#6 roger

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Posted 25 October 2013 - 05:20 AM

Good morning Seth.

I would ask that you look back five or six years and think about where players such as this group would have been ranked. I expect they would have been much higher. But how much higher?

When Summers joined the organization that first summer, I was convinced that he would become a top late inning reliever (if I recall, his strikeout rate was much higher out of the pen). I thought he was the best of the three pitchers taken high that year (Boer, Summers and Williams).

After going through the process of starting for a few years, I still believe that is his fate. The only problem I see is that the Twins have an abundence of quality relievers led by the Joneses, Zach and Tyler. What would be of interest to me is that when this is over, you do a separate listing of the ten relievers you believe are most likely to contribute to the Twins. Would love to see you include your best guess of what role each will fill.

Have a great day...its going to be around 70 degrees on the South Carolina coast again today!

Edited by roger, 25 October 2013 - 05:23 AM.


#7 jokin

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Posted 25 October 2013 - 06:59 AM

If I was a betting man I would say that Darnell starts 10 games or more for the twins next year.


If you were a betting man, would you take the Over, or the Under, on a Darnell Twins ERA of 5.00?

#8 Seth Stohs

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Posted 25 October 2013 - 07:27 AM

Tyler Jones has some good stuff but he was a bit old for the levels he pitched at. Luke Bard would be most likely of this group to reach the show, if he could just get and stay healthy. Darnell, despite his solid numbers, just doesn't really feel like a prospect to me.


His age is maybe why he is ranked where he is, but it has zero impact on the Twins future. Maybe he gets to the big leagues at 26 (if he does), again, you get ages 26-31! He is one that needed the time. He's not Buxton who is so naturally gifted that he could debut at 20. He needed time to mature, dedicate himself to baseball, make some adjustments, find a good role, add some velocity, etc.

I jus think people make too big of a deal about age sometimes. IF you're looking for future Hall of Famers, yes, 25-26 is too old to probably be that. If you're looking for solid major league contributors, it's not.

#9 Seth Stohs

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Posted 25 October 2013 - 07:39 AM

I could do a top ten relievers article or something like that, but would you want guys who are relievers now, or guys who could be relievers in the future? As I mentioned yesterday, most big league relievers were starters in the minors. And most were failed starters at that, though they were good starters in the minors. Nathan, Aguilera, Guardado, Hawkins, Rincon, Perkins, Swarzak, etc. There are some examples, so I'm certainly not saying that minor league relievers can't be big league relievers (Crain, Neshek, Burton).

But, Roger, it has been guys like Summers and so many others that have signed with the Twins as college starters and then been used out of the E-Town or Beloit/CR bullpens for the first year. They get strikeouts and dominate, but it doesn't tell the real story. Don't get me wrong. I 100% agree with the Twins philosophy on college pitchers in the year that they sign. As you can see from my rankings of a guy like Slegers, I'm much more leery in getting too excited by that. I'll wait until 2014 when he gets into the role he'll be in (starter) and see how that goes a bit.

#10 2wins87

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Posted 25 October 2013 - 08:44 AM

If you were a betting man, would you take the Over, or the Under, on a Darnell Twins ERA of 5.00?


I'll definitely take under. He doesn't strike out tons of guys and it'll almost certainly drop in the majors, but 7 K/9 isn't too bad. In addition, he's definitely a ground ball pitcher; about 50% groundballs this year. If he can keep getting groundballs and striking out a few he'll be a solid back of the rotation starter. Mid 4 ERA, low 4 if he has some luck.

#11 diehardtwinsfan

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Posted 25 October 2013 - 09:37 AM

Darnell did put up some high K games this season (at least when I looked), so he can get the Ks. I haven't seem him pitch, so I'm not sure on his strengths and weaknesses and why he doesn't do it consistently.

I like him because he's close to the show, and has the potential to be something better than a 5 starter/AAAA guy... Don't expect him to be a world beater, but I wouldn't be surprised if people are looking forward to seeing him pitch at somepoint next year...

#12 clutterheart

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Posted 25 October 2013 - 09:42 AM

If you were a betting man, would you take the Over, or the Under, on a Darnell Twins ERA of 5.00?


Under. But I wouldn't go over 4.50
He's a leftie who has average pitches and could put together a string of a few good starts.
With a few clunkers between.

#13 Cap'n Piranha

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Posted 25 October 2013 - 11:54 AM

Can't wait to see the Jones boys (Zach and Tyler) throwing 98-100 mph bb's at batters in the 7th and 8th in a couple of years. Convert May to a reliever, get Bard healthy, and that's a bullpen foursome you can go to war with.

#14 Oxtung

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Posted 25 October 2013 - 07:38 PM

As I mentioned yesterday, most big league relievers were starters in the minors. And most were failed starters at that, though they were good starters in the minors. Nathan, Aguilera, Guardado, Hawkins, Rincon, Perkins, Swarzak, etc. There are some examples, so I'm certainly not saying that minor league relievers can't be big league relievers (Crain, Neshek, Burton).


Not to drag this off topic but I did a small study on this (SSS applies). Last years closers split like this: 11 were starters all the way through the minors and into the majors. 6 were full time relievers in the minors and 3 began as starters but converted to reliever while they were still in the minors. So it's almost a 50:50 split by the time they reach the majors. Some teams didn't have a defined closer or it wasn't clear the closer was going stay the closer for long so that's why there is only 20.

#15 Joe A. Preusser

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Posted 25 October 2013 - 08:50 PM

Tyler Jones has some good stuff but he was a bit old for the levels he pitched at. Luke Bard would be most likely of this group to reach the show, if he could just get and stay healthy. Darnell, despite his solid numbers, just doesn't really feel like a prospect to me.


No offense intended here, but I've never much liked the line of thought that runs..."so and so was too old for that league, so his nice performance doesn't mean much..." Isn't it possible that some guys just peak or figure things out later in life than others? I know I'm not a professional athlete, but I've noticed that I definately fall into that catagorie as far as social and intellectual things go. Is it more unusual for physical skills to develop later in life? How about the mental/psychological side of the game?

Or is this more about valuable years of MLB service time in their prime? If a prospect makes it to the majors at 28 rather than 23, of course they will have less productive MLB years to contribute to their team. It just seems like the goal is to develop talent rather than worrying about the longevity of that talent, after all, even the 22 year old stud all star is only 1 injury away from ending his career.

#16 jokin

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Posted 25 October 2013 - 09:04 PM

[quote name='clutterheart']Under. But I wouldn't go over 4.50
He's a leftie who has average pitches and could put together a string of a few good starts.
With a few clunkers between.[/QUOTE]

[quote name='diehardtwinsfan']Darnell did put up some high K games this season (at least when I looked), so he can get the Ks. I haven't seem him pitch, so I'm not sure on his strengths and weaknesses and why he doesn't do it consistently.

I like him because he's close to the show, and has the potential to be something better than a 5 starter/AAAA guy... Don't expect him to be a world beater, but I wouldn't be surprised if people are looking forward to seeing him pitch at somepoint next year...[/QUOTE]

[quote name='2wins87']I'll definitely take under. He doesn't strike out tons of guys and it'll almost certainly drop in the majors, but 7 K/9 isn't too bad. In addition, he's definitely a ground ball pitcher; about 50% groundballs this year. If he can keep getting groundballs and striking out a few he'll be a solid back of the rotation starter. Mid 4 ERA, low 4 if he has some luck.[/QUOTE]


Thanks for the encouraging words, guys. I tend to agree that Darnell may very well get the call at some point in 2014, but it's concerning to me that his fellow Kentucky Wildcat, with admittedly less stuff, has posted consistently sterling MiLB numbers throughout his MiLB career compared to Darnell. Darnell finally put up good numbers in his 3rd year at New Britain.

It's interesting to note that Seth doesn't even have Andrew Albers ranked in his top 52 prospects at mid-season, and Darnell is ranked #28. It's like a prospect is "good" merely because he's supposed to be "good", even when he isn't. He's never averaged above 5.2IP/Start and his FIP (4.92) closely correlates with his ERA (5.23).

Maybe he's turned a corner in 2013, and I do like lefties, but I think I have more hope in the other 2 similar lefties, Albers and Diamond being the back-end guys for the next couple years.

#17 diehardtwinsfan

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Posted 26 October 2013 - 06:53 AM

Thanks for the encouraging words, guys. I tend to agree that Darnell may very well get the call at some point in 2014, but it's concerning to me that his fellow Kentucky Wildcat, with admittedly less stuff, has posted consistently sterling MiLB numbers throughout his MiLB career compared to Darnell. Darnell finally put up good numbers in his 3rd year at New Britain.

It's interesting to note that Seth doesn't even have Andrew Albers ranked in his top 52 prospects at mid-season, and Darnell is ranked #28. It's like a prospect is "good" merely because he's supposed to be "good", even when he isn't. He's never averaged above 5.2IP/Start and his FIP (4.92) closely correlates with his ERA (5.23).

Maybe he's turned a corner in 2013, and I do like lefties, but I think I have more hope in the other 2 similar lefties, Albers and Diamond being the back-end guys for the next couple years.


To be clear, I fully expect Darnell to take some lumps in MLB. I just think his future is brighter as he can be something other than a 5 starter/AAAA fill in. I'm not sure I understand the Albers love in particular. As soon as the scouting reports were out on him, he suddenly looked very very very human. I'll be real honest in that I am hoping that Albers is not in the starting rotation at all next year other than for maybe a couple of spot starts.

As for Diamond, I'm not as confident as you are, though to be fair, Mark Buhrle made quite the career doing what Diamond can do. Perhaps he can find his inner Buhrle and have a decent ML career. The problem with guys like him is that it is such a fine line. Buhrle is the rare success story here, and that road is littered with failures. Being left handed probably helps, but Diamond has his work cut out for him.