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Article: Five Offseason Predictions

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#1 Nick Nelson

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Posted 15 October 2013 - 09:16 PM

You can view the page at http://twinsdaily.co...ins-Predictions

#2 Kwak

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Posted 15 October 2013 - 09:35 PM

#1 Low hanging fruit. #2 Pointless. There already exist ML-ready alternatives to Mauer and Doumit. Though, you might be right given this is the Twins we're discussing. #3 I hope you're correct--if it's for a starting pitcher. #4 Disagree. Last year's Hicks experience will make the the tradionalists win the arguement--and Sano will spend most of the season in the minors. Service time and the potential for another early selection in the Rule 4 draft (in 2015) are other considerations/factors. #5 Disagree--they will pay him. Woth Pohlad saying he "will spend!" this off-season--to be chinchy with Duensing (who is on good terms with the Twins) is just inconsistent with stated policy. After all, it's only for one year!

#3 Seth Stohs

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Posted 15 October 2013 - 09:36 PM

A good clue as to whether or not Duensing will be non-tendered is if the Twins put Edgar Ibarra on the 40 man roster before the end of the World Series. If he's added, I can see Duensing non-tendered. If Ibarra isn't added, Duensing doesn't make enough to non-tender. Pedro Hernandez has options and Duensing's been consistently solid for a long time.

#4 Thrylos

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Posted 15 October 2013 - 09:55 PM

Unless Thielbar and Hernandez (and Diamond ;) ) develop 93-95 mph fastballs, they cannot replace Duensing.

Would Butera count for #2?

I just cannot see Ryan spending any money. We shall see...

#5 clutterheart

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Posted 15 October 2013 - 10:20 PM

I think Duensing stays
The money can't be too important...can it?

#6 Shane Wahl

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Posted 15 October 2013 - 10:22 PM

Three is a possibility, depending on the money Hughes wants.

Other than that, forget about no.1. Tanaka will be a Yankee. 2. Pinto and Herrmann can be fine. No need to plug this roster with yet MORE aging, declining "talent." 3. Possible. 4. They won't and they shouldn't. Wait until mid-May if he is doing well in AAA. 5. It is possible, but there also is the talk about stretching him out again . . . Also, Ibarra's status shouldn't matter. Duensing, Thielbar, and Ibarra as the three lefties other than Perkins who are good relievers (sorry, Pedro, you are not, and should be removed from the 40-man, in fact) isn't too many. Ibarra might be plucked if not protected and Duensing should be traded at the deadline if he does well this year.

#7 righty8383

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Posted 15 October 2013 - 10:40 PM

Just out of curiosity, have they set a date for the Tanaka bidding to begin? Not that I have high hopes or anything, just wondering...

#8 Physics Guy

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Posted 15 October 2013 - 11:33 PM

1 - I agree, just can't see Ryan forking over that kind of dough.
2 - Agree, I think Pinto catches 80 -100 games and think a vet to fill in the rest would be a good idea. Mauer becomes 1B.
3 - This has to happen, no discussion.
4 - Don't see this happening unless Plouffe implodes in ST. Twins need to wait until June.
5 - Can see why this could happen, but I doubt it.

#9 savvyspy

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Posted 16 October 2013 - 05:26 AM

1. Dream on
2. Guarantee the veteran catcher hit less than .220 last season
3. See #1
4. After Hicks the team isn't going to rush Sano
5. Deunsing will be sold to the fans as "spending money"

#10 Joe A. Preusser

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Posted 16 October 2013 - 06:00 AM

1. Sounds about right. I'd say our bid will be ~40 mil and the winning bid will be north of 50.
2. I think they comfortable going with what they have. If they want a solid veteran backup, then Mauer can work with them and the pitching staff while he's taking grounders at first.
3. Agree.
4. I see this one as 0% likely. Not because of Hicks.
5. Unlikely. This is the prototypical contract the Twins love to give out.

Five predictions of my own:

1. Pelfrey is resigned.
2. Sano plays for the Twins at or by the ASB. Buxton is a Sept call up.
3. Gibson has a nice first complete year and checks in with an ERA just under 4.
4. Twins will sign 2 FA pitchers for a yearly average of 10 million or more.
5. The Twins will win 75 games next year.

#11 gmarais66

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Posted 16 October 2013 - 08:43 AM

Three is a possibility, depending on the money Hughes wants.

Other than that, forget about no.1. Tanaka will be a Yankee.


I think the Yankees will probably get Tanaka, but the Twins might have a better chance if the proposed changes to the posting process go into effect. Under the proposed new process, the Twins wouldn't have to have the top bid. Tanaka could choose from the top three teams.

#12 JB_Iowa

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Posted 16 October 2013 - 09:24 AM

First, can we take about 10 years off Mike Redmond and sign him to fulfill #2?

#1 - without saying how big the Twins' bid will be, I think that your title statement is correct

#2 - tossup

#3 - kind of. I think he will ink a 2 year FA deal with a higher yearly amount than Willingham's but not sure if the total $$$ will be over $21 million but it will have a 3rd year option that will take it over the 21

#4 I hope so but make no predictions

#5 I think he's probably still a Twin next year

Edited by JB_Iowa, 16 October 2013 - 09:27 AM.


#13 diehardtwinsfan

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Posted 16 October 2013 - 09:27 AM

2 4 and 5 are wrong I think.
The Twins have 4 catchers on the 40 man now, and I honestly suspect Herman will be dropped (or at least should be). Pinto starts in AAA unless Doumit is traded. Doumit's PT is reduced to 2nd catcher and a lot less time at DH.

There will be buzz on Sano, but I think he starts the year in the AAA. Plouffe gets one more shot. If the bat sticks, then the Twins have a potential trade chip or move Plouffe elsewhere.
Deunsing gets another year, and if he's doing well, may sign a 3 year deal to avoid being non-tendered as he gets more expensive.

#14 Oldgoat_MN

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Posted 16 October 2013 - 09:28 AM

I think the Yankees will probably get Tanaka, but the Twins might have a better chance if the proposed changes to the posting process go into effect. Under the proposed new process, the Twins wouldn't have to have the top bid. Tanaka could choose from the top three teams.


Hmmm...
It is difficult for me to imagine a guy coming from Japan who wants to play for the Minnesota Twins rather than the New York Yankees.

That is a brand name they got in NYC, and every baseball fan in Japan knows of them.
I'm on a whiskey diet. I've lost 3 days already.

#15 DAM DC Twins Fans

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Posted 16 October 2013 - 09:39 AM

1- The Twins will bid for Tanaka and come up short with the winning bid and fee to total about $140million.
2- No way they sign a veteran catcher--Joe wants to catch, he will catch half the games and Pinto the rest.
3- Since the bar is low--the Twins will sign a pitcher for 2-3 years for $25-30 million who will disappoint--think Lincecom or Hughes--if lucky they will put up numbers equal to Corriera or Pelfrey (who will be resigned).
4- Sano will be 3B--not sure if before June 3 (my birthday) or not.
5- Gardy and Anderson love Duensing. He will be back.

#16 beckmt

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Posted 16 October 2013 - 10:29 AM

1 - Twins will bid, but not win. They are according to MLBtraderumors looking at a Korean pitcher now.
2. No way - There are enough catchers to go around
3. Twins will do this - hope it is on 2 good starting pitchers - my bet is 1 from the middle of the pack
4. - No way Sano will come up after the Super Two cutoff if he is doing well in Rochester.
5. - Possible but I think they will pay him

A couple of my preditions
1. Twins will sign an international free agent for a goodly sum this winter
2. TR will make at least one trade for a player or pitcher at the major league level
3. Pressley will be sent to Rochester to see if he can be made back into a starter.

#17 nicksaviking

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Posted 16 October 2013 - 10:39 AM

Hmmm...
It is difficult for me to imagine a guy coming from Japan who wants to play for the Minnesota Twins rather than the New York Yankees.

That is a brand name they got in NYC, and every baseball fan in Japan knows of them.


Yes, if the new bidding process takes place, the Twins will have zero chance of ever signing any big name Asian player. It will be big markets, or big Asian communities. St. Peter, the Pohlad's or whoever is representing the team in these kind of league-wide discusions better be strenuously arguing against this process. Of course on the surface it looks like a way to save some money, so they may not.

#18 nicksaviking

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Posted 16 October 2013 - 10:48 AM

#1 I agree, though they could always put in a lowball offer just to say they tried. Rarely does anyone know what the losing teams bid.
#2 I don't think so, it would signal the end of Mauer at catcher and even if Mauer is moved from the position, Ryan isn't going to be sending signals, it will be done quitely and smoothely internally.
#3 Shouldn't be hard, but it shouldn't have been hard last year either. We might get a repeat of Ryan's exhasperated "We can't get them to take our money!" meltdown on MLB TV.
#4 I agree, he will be the favorite, though in the end I think he'll be sent to Rochester. Of course if they do it at the last cut and the fans don't know it's coming, it might get ugly.
#5 I think he stays. He seems to be a management favorite and his second half was pretty good. That K/9 came out of nowhere, they might have found something valuable in him.

#19 Willihammer

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Posted 16 October 2013 - 10:56 AM

1) The Twins will make a bid for Masahiro Tanaka but will come up short of the winning post.


Sometimes you can't give your money away.

#20 Boom Boom

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Posted 16 October 2013 - 11:06 AM

1 - agreed
2 - agreed, but it will be of the Steve Holm/Rene Rivera ilk. Return of The Son of Sal?
3 - I doubt it. My expectation is that the Twins biggest FA pitching acquisition will be Pelfrey.
4 - No chance the Twins call him up before they push back his service clock the extra year. Fans will clamor, and the Twins will remind us of what happened with Hicks.
5 - 50/50. The Twins were chattering about moving Duensing back to the rotation, which could have been smoke to try and build up some trade value, but I think any other team would realize that if Duensing was a legitimate option to start there was no one in the Twins rotation that was blocking him.

#21 Siehbiscuit

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Posted 16 October 2013 - 11:37 AM

1- I'm going to be the outlier here and say that the posting will be won in the $40M range. The Rangers were the only team over $30M on Darvish. I think most teams will be in the $30-40 range and the Twins will are desparate and his age is the reason why. Ryan has always been against paying for a pitchers past. Here's a way to improve the roster with a still developing young pitcher. Twins will be aggressive and WIN.

2. The Twins will move Doumit this off-season, but NOT sign a Redmond or Molina-type defensive-minded catcher that can help the young catchers develop (in-game pitch calling, old veteran tips and tricks). The think that is what Steinbach is there for. Mauer will catch 100-120 games, Hermann 20-30 and Pinto (starts in AAA) will catch 20-30 as well.

3. True. The contract will be Tanaka's. A 5-year/55M deal.

4. Sano will start the year at AAA and be called up in mid-June. The Twins are done with the Plouffe experiment at 3B and will pick up Mark Reynolds on a cheap 1 year deal to hold the fort and provide some HR power.

5. Duensing will be retained and will prove to be a valuable part of the bullpen.

#22 nicksaviking

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Posted 16 October 2013 - 11:39 AM

My bold and rediculous prediction:

The Yankees, who will be intent on re-siging Cano and aiming to get Tanaka, will look to clear some money to fit under the luxery tax. They work out a deal to trade CC Sabathia to the Twins and eat $56 million of the $96 million still owed over the next four years. The Twins send two low to modest prospects, let's say Travis Harrison and Mason Melotakis, to the Yankees to complete the deal.

Sabathia then fails his physical and the offer is nixed leaving the Twins without the pitcher and the Yankees over the luxery tax threshold.

#23 whosafraidofluigirussolo

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Posted 16 October 2013 - 11:42 AM

Yes, if the new bidding process takes place, the Twins will have zero chance of ever signing any big name Asian player. It will be big markets, or big Asian communities. St. Peter, the Pohlad's or whoever is representing the team in these kind of league-wide discusions better be strenuously arguing against this process.


I think you're over-simplifying the factors that can go into a player's decision where to sign. You can't completely discount that an appeal to being the pioneer Asian star to play in a city like Minneapolis might draw some player. Or that the Twins might simply offer the nicest contract after winning one of the top three posting bids. I'm sure there'll be cases where your reasons are right.

#24 drivlikejehu

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Posted 16 October 2013 - 11:56 AM

#1 - This is technically satisified even if they put in a lowball bid, which really isn't any different from not bidding at all (except for PR purposes). So I don't think this is much of a prediction.

#2 - This is the closest one to 50/50 I think. Signing a veteran backup is basically pointless but is Twins-like, so...

#3 - The bar is low, true, but I would bet against it. What free agent pitchers are (a) even vaguely realistic and (B) slated to get over $21MM?

#4 - I think there's almost no chance at all Sano starts the season with the Twins, with injuries being a wild card.

#5 - The Twins seem to like Duensing and have plenty of payroll space, so I don't see why they would non-tender him.

#25 Heimer

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Posted 16 October 2013 - 02:45 PM

It's not the "twins way" but i hope they put their eggs in one basket and sign Tanaka no matter the cost. Rather than signing two FA pitchers in their thirties.

#26 Zarathustra

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Posted 16 October 2013 - 04:59 PM

1) I put this at 70 / 30 the Twins don't sign / sign Tanaka. Last year it would have been 90 / 10 and two years ago, 99 / 1 (the Nishi experience stings, in addition to deep-seeded organizational tendencies). But, although this isn't an apples to apples comparison to the Mauer signing, I suggest that a comparable tenor exists demanding this money be spent. Also, because the Twins have NEVER signed a top-flight pitcher to a sizable contract, the most effective way for TR and the Pohlads to demonstrate their sincere intolerance for what is taking place, knowing that starting pitching is and has long been now the team's greatest weakness, is to break precedent and do what it takes for Tanaka, damn the Yankees in the process.

2) Ok

3) Here is where if 1) doesn't come to pass, the Twins can still behave similarly to sway a disgruntled fan base. I put it at 70 / 30 that, should they NOT sign Tanaka, they DO sign a contract that surprises all of us, thought not necessarily with a FA pitcher. Remember, this team will be VERY cheap to field in a couple years as it is composed currently and is planned to be filled-in.

4) I'll plead partial ignorance, but can't they save potentially millions of dollars on the back end by holding Sano off for part of the year? If so, I foresee several post game questions asking when Sano is coming up being responded with phrases like, 'we don't want to rush' and 'he still has some things we'd like to see before we move him up' and 'the Major Leagues are a big step up, we want to make sure he's ready'. And, partial/total insincerity in the comments aside, I don't disagree with the decision. I don't want to see Sano walk in 2018 because he's too expensive. That's when we're going to the WS!

5) I'll take that bet, Nick.

Edited by Zarathustra, 16 October 2013 - 05:01 PM.
Added spaces between paragraphs so eyes don't hurt so bad.


#27 Guest_USAFChief_*

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Posted 16 October 2013 - 05:52 PM

Nick: I really enjoy reading these kinds of articles, and I admire the courage it takes to put yourself out there with predictions that can be dredged up later and waved around when they don't prove true. Your example has inspired me...what follows are five predictions from the Chief.

1. Despite overall attendance numbers continuing their alarming downward trend, I predict there will be at least one sold out, SRO crowd at TF in 2014. My early analysis of weather trends, vacation bookings, historical patterns and airline reservations makes me think July is the most likely month for this to occur.

2. Desperate to revamp the starting rotation, TR will not bring back more than one 2013 full time starter* to the 2014 team.

3. Despite public pressure to add power by filling first base with a free agent and popular former Twin, TR will not sign Kent Hrbek.

4. TR will stubbornly refuse to trade up or down in the June draft, sticking with his one first round pick, right where it's at.

5. Torii Hunter will return to TF in 2014.

*made 30 or more starts for the Twins in 2013

And there you have it. Go ahead folks, tear them apart. Do your worst, but I'm sticking to these.

Edited by USAFChief, 16 October 2013 - 05:53 PM.
Toned down the wilder predictions to be a bit more realistic


#28 kab21

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Posted 16 October 2013 - 06:39 PM

1) Agree but I think they are prepared to spend a lot more than people think but not as much as other teams.

2) I could see this happening but I'm indifferent to it.

3) I think we will see a 50M contract on a solid but not really good player

4) I'm already dreading the epic Sano opening day battles but I don't think there is any chance he is on the opening day roster.

5) I really hope that the Twins don't feel the need to get rid of an effective RP'er because of 2M. There's close to 50M available and it's not going to be spent anyway. Not surprisingly Duensing's numbers improved last year since he hasn't been jerked back and forth between the rotation and bullpen.

#29 Riverbrian

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Posted 16 October 2013 - 06:50 PM

1. Tanaka signs elsewhere. No one will know if the Twins placed a bid or for how much. Someone will conclude that Tanaka signing elsewhere was due to Twins Front Office apathy or frugality.

2. Welcome Back A.J. Pierzynski. Pinto makes the club out of ST... Mauer plays 1B Fulltime. Doumit is dangled until someone agrees to take him. He will DH or RF the majority of his playing time.

3. No doubt... It will be a pitcher.

4. Sano will appear when Plouffe gets hurt of is benched for the final time. Terry Ryan will be hoping that Plouffe stays healthy until Super Two Day. Whenever that is.

5. Duensing stays. The Twins will loyally pay it and Duensing will be just fine.

Now the Ad Ons:

6. Pierzynski, Pinto, Plouffe, Parmelee and Presley will have great 2014 Seasons. Pelfrey resigns and has a great 2014... So do Perkins and Pressly... Unfortunately... Anyone whose last name doesn't start with a P... Does not have a good year.

7. A.J. Pierzynski will admonish Michael Tonkin for spelling Golf Gulf.

8. Sometime during 2014... Chris Colabello will be called out for stepping out of the batters box and stepping on third base while swinging.

9. Encouraged by the rapid Growth of Kohl Stewart... The Twins draft another College QB with the 5th pick overall. Unfortunately Teddy Bridgewater signs with the Jaguars instead.

10. The Twins Caravan will make its final voyage after driving into Lake Bemidji after knocking over Paul Bunyan in a bad case of distracted driving... Babe the Blue Ox is unharmed but is admonished by A.J. Pierzynski for not protecting Paul and just standing there like some big dumb Ox.

Edited by Riverbrian, 16 October 2013 - 06:53 PM.

A Skeleton walks into a bar and says... "Give me a beer... And a mop".

#30 Kwak

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Posted 16 October 2013 - 07:00 PM

But can we really believe the posters who make these predictions without them having an inside informant?