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Homer Bailey

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#1 rcfarmer

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Posted 08 October 2013 - 09:22 PM

Reds rumors: Cincinnati could trade Homer Bailey | MLB Injury News

If this is a payroll move the Twins have the prospects to get him.

Lets start with Travis Harrison or Trevor Plouffe, the Reds could use a 3rd baseman now or later. Add in Max Kepler and a catching prospect like Matt Koch.

Or dangle Eddie Rosario if they are really contemplating trading Brandon Phillips.

#2 Physics Guy

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Posted 08 October 2013 - 10:17 PM

I think trading for Bailey would be a good move and is more in line with what I expect Ryan to do. Trade for him and then spend some of the money they are hoarding to sign him to a 4-5 year deal. Despite all of the talk, I have my doubts that Ryan spends big on a FA. I truly hope I am wrong, but think the best Ryan will end up with in FA is a Vargas/Feldman type.

#3 Oldgoat_MN

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Posted 08 October 2013 - 11:23 PM

Homer Bailey - 11-12, 3.49 ERA, 1.124 WHIP, 8.6 SO/9, 209 IP.

I cannot imagine why they would trade him, but if they are so inclined I would sure like TR to make an effort to land him.
I'm on a whiskey diet. I've lost 3 days already.

#4 Mr. Brooks

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Posted 09 October 2013 - 05:11 AM

Homer Bailey - 11-12, 3.49 ERA, 1.124 WHIP, 8.6 SO/9, 209 IP.

I cannot imagine why they would trade him, but if they are so inclined I would sure like TR to make an effort to land him.


The article lays out some good thoughts on why they might trade him.
1) He seems intent on hitting FA, and the Reds don't feel they will have the money to sign him at that point, so they would rather get talent back than let him walk.

2) The Reds already have 4 comparable or better SP's as Bailey, and that number becomes 5 if they move Chapman into the rotation, so he is expendable.

#5 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 09 October 2013 - 06:22 AM

Lets start with Travis Harrison or Trevor Plouffe, the Reds could use a 3rd baseman now or later. Add in Max Kepler and a catching prospect like Matt Koch.


Starting negotiations with Plouffe and Harrison is just enough to get Jocketty to pick up the phone...

to tell you to go jump off a bridge.

But the idea of trading for Bailey is a good one, you'll just need to up the offer quite a bit. Someone more along the lines of Rosario is probably the starting point.

#6 markos

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Posted 09 October 2013 - 07:15 AM

Starting negotiations with Plouffe and Harrison is just enough to get Jocketty to pick up the phone...

to tell you to go jump off a bridge.

But the idea of trading for Bailey is a good one, you'll just need to up the offer quite a bit. Someone more along the lines of Rosario is probably the starting point.


I think that the recent Garza trade is probably a good framework for the type of deal that Jocketty would expect. That leads me to think that the Twins could start with Berrios or Rosario to get the conversation started, but would probably require 3 or 4 players total. Maybe something like Berrios, Hicks and Plouffe, and maybe a pitcher like Baxendale. That is probably too rich for me, but it is a package that would get a return call from Jocketty.

It will obviously depend on the specifics, but in principal I would support this. It would amazing to have someone in the starting rotation that is above average once every five days. Long term, I see 4 outcomes in this offseason acquisition, and most of them are good for the Twins.

1) He signs a long-term deal to stay here. Yay! Their is finally an ace in the starting rotation.
2) The Twins flip him at the trade-deadline, and hopefully recoup most if not all of the prospect value sent to the Reds in the off-season.
3) The Twins keep him all year, offer him a qualifying offer, he don't resign, and get an extra first round pick. Hopefully he had a good year and they recoup some value.
4) He blows out his arm/shoulder, and has no value. The Twins end up with crap.

#7 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 09 October 2013 - 07:17 AM

Doesn't Bailey have two years of arb left? I don't think he's gone after 2014.

#8 ThePuck

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Posted 09 October 2013 - 07:28 AM

Doesn't Bailey have two years of arb left? I don't think he's gone after 2014.


He's a free agent in 2015, so he can be gone after 2014 if they don't re-sign him

Edited by ThePuck, 09 October 2013 - 08:05 AM.

Just remember: You put the lime IN the coconut. Only THEN, can you drink it all up.

#9 markos

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Posted 09 October 2013 - 07:54 AM

He's a free agent in 2015.


Well that changes things a bit. The Reds are probably looking for something similar to the Shields/Myers trade. This could get expensive...

#10 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 09 October 2013 - 07:58 AM

Well that changes things a bit. The Reds are probably looking for something similar to the Shields/Myers trade. This could get expensive...


No way.

1. Shields is quite a bit better than Bailey. Bailey is more Edwin Jackson than James Shields.

2. Given how the Shields trade has panned out (more about how Myers has played than any deficiency on the part of Shields), I don't see other teams approaching that kind of prospect trade for David Price, much less Homer Bailey.

#11 ThePuck

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Posted 09 October 2013 - 08:05 AM

Well that changes things a bit. The Reds are probably looking for something similar to the Shields/Myers trade. This could get expensive...


That only gives them one year of control on him. When Shields was traded, he had two years of control and he's a much better pitcher.
Just remember: You put the lime IN the coconut. Only THEN, can you drink it all up.

#12 stringer bell

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Posted 09 October 2013 - 08:31 AM

I agree with the theory of acquiring a good starter who is going to get expensive, because the Twins have the payroll flexibility to pay the guy and offer an extension. Is Baily the right guy? Not sure, but putting up the numbers he has pitching in a bandbox indicates he is a pretty good pitcher. He will get very wealthy in arb this winter, putting two very nice season back to back. If I were the Twins, I would try to give the Reds position playing prospects and limit the pitchers, but it seems the currency of the realm these days is young pitching.

#13 nicksaviking

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Posted 09 October 2013 - 08:40 AM

I don't think Bailey is a fit. The main reason why Cincinnati is considering moving him is because he is refusing to talk extension. Do the Twins really want to give up a top 100 prospect and some other really good pieces just to have a #3 pitcher in what is shaping up to be another losing season?

Perhaps if the offseason works out great and the Twins magically get Tanaka, Kazmir and some offensive help that looks to make the Twins an immediate contender trading for him would be a wise move. But that doesn't look to be the case. Bailey is best suited for a contender in win-now mode who doesn't have eyes on him past 2014.

#14 markos

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Posted 09 October 2013 - 08:43 AM

That only gives them one year of control on him. When Shields was traded, he had two years of control and he's a much better pitcher.


I misunderstood the "He's a free agent in 2015." to mean after the 2015 season, so I thought there were two years left. My bad.

#15 SpitefulRabbit617

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Posted 09 October 2013 - 08:44 AM

Did Vance Worly get sucked up into a vortex like Ozzie Smith did on the simpsons?

#16 rcfarmer

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Posted 09 October 2013 - 08:48 AM

I don't think Bailey is a fit. The main reason why Cincinnati is considering moving him is because he is refusing to talk extension. Do the Twins really want to give up a top 100 prospect and some other really good pieces just to have a #3 pitcher in what is shaping up to be another losing season?

Perhaps if the offseason works out great and the Twins magically get Tanaka, Kazmir and some offensive help that looks to make the Twins an immediate contender trading for him would be a wise move. But that doesn't look to be the case. Bailey is best suited for a contender in win-now mode who doesn't have eyes on him past 2014.


It could be very John Smiley circa 1992 like, but at some point you just have to take a chance that it could lead to bigger and better times. He is only 27 and right now he would be the Twins #1.

#17 nicksaviking

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Posted 09 October 2013 - 09:18 AM

It could be very John Smiley circa 1992 like, but at some point you just have to take a chance that it could lead to bigger and better times. He is only 27 and right now he would be the Twins #1.


Yeah, but in 1992 the Twins were looking for a replacement for Jack Morris who just lead the team to the World Series. If the Twins were back in that situation again it would be a wise move as I previously stated, but the Twins are almost certainly not going to be contending next year. Would you really want to trade Alex Meyer for one season of Bailey when the Twins still will almost certainly miss the playoffs?

#18 ThePuck

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Posted 09 October 2013 - 09:22 AM

I misunderstood the "He's a free agent in 2015." to mean after the 2015 season, so I thought there were two years left. My bad.


it's all good. we're all on the same page now. :-)
Just remember: You put the lime IN the coconut. Only THEN, can you drink it all up.

#19 drivlikejehu

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Posted 09 October 2013 - 09:44 AM

A deal would have to be contingent on an extension. My guess is that most if not all teams would make that stipulation before trading for him, because the extension costs the Reds nothing and, if the talks fall through, they can just go to offer #2. And teams will offer more if it's not a rental situation.

Has the ship sailed on Chapman to the rotation? If they moved him out of the closer's role maybe Perkins would be an attractive piece (as part of a package).

#20 rcfarmer

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Posted 09 October 2013 - 10:58 AM

Yeah, but in 1992 the Twins were looking for a replacement for Jack Morris who just lead the team to the World Series. If the Twins were back in that situation again it would be a wise move as I previously stated, but the Twins are almost certainly not going to be contending next year. Would you really want to trade Alex Meyer for one season of Bailey when the Twins still will almost certainly miss the playoffs?

With the one year deal the cost to acquire would be much less than Alex Meyer. The deal only works if you can get him for the right package.

#21 Hosken Bombo Disco

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Posted 09 October 2013 - 11:29 AM

Did Vance Worly get sucked up into a vortex like Ozzie Smith did on the simpsons?


Yes.

Which many people fear is likely with next years' ace / opening day starter ..

#22 nicksaviking

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Posted 09 October 2013 - 12:32 PM

[quote name='drivlikejehu']A deal would have to be contingent on an extension. My guess is that most if not all teams would make that stipulation before trading for him, because the extension costs the Reds nothing and, if the talks fall through, they can just go to offer #2. And teams will offer more if it's not a rental situation.[QUOTE]

An extension isn't happening though, that is why the Reds are keen on moving him. Why would he be willing to sign an extension with an unfamiliar losing club when he won't with the only organization he has ever known which happens to be winning with a strong core?

[quote name='rcfarmer']With the one year deal the cost to acquire would be much less than Alex Meyer. The deal only works if you can get him for the right package.[/QUOTE]

That's only because we as Twins fans value Meyer more than others do. A solid arm like Bailey will get a top 100 prospect. Even if it's not Meyer, do you want to give up Rosario and May, or Kepler or whatever other combination of top 12 orgainzational prospects to get one year of a guy on another likely losing team?

#23 ashburyjohn

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Posted 09 October 2013 - 12:33 PM

If Bailey is unwilling to sign an extension with Cincinnati, it's not clear to me why he would sign one with the Twins. If he's focused on free agency, he'll likely view any Twins offer as something a bigger-market team will top.

#24 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 09 October 2013 - 12:46 PM

If Bailey is unwilling to sign an extension with Cincinnati, it's not clear to me why he would sign one with the Twins. If he's focused on free agency, he'll likely view any Twins offer as something a bigger-market team will top.


Well, for starters, the Twins have more money than the Reds.

But yeah, there's a good chance he won't sign an extension with anyone if he won't do it with Cincinnati.

#25 rcfarmer

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Posted 09 October 2013 - 12:55 PM

If he is viewed as a 5th starter in Cincy, the offer from them is probably not enough to interest him. In Minnesota he would be a front end starter and the deal he could get would be more in line.

I would trade May in a second for him, providing they had worked out a long term deal.

#26 nicksaviking

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Posted 09 October 2013 - 01:04 PM

If he is viewed as a 5th starter in Cincy, the offer from them is probably not enough to interest him. In Minnesota he would be a front end starter and the deal he could get would be more in line.

I would trade May in a second for him, providing they had worked out a long term deal.


May and who else, because the Reds will be wanting a top 100 prospect, so you're including Rosario too.

But now your arguing that not only won't he cost a prospect like Meyer, but that he will also sign an extension because he simply assumes the Twins will pay him more. If that is his hangup, why wouldn't he at least see what the Reds have to offer?

It's just not likely as his refusal to TALK extension means he has his sights on free agency. Whoever gets him, gets him for one year. Contract negotiations start in the 2014/2015 off season.

#27 drivlikejehu

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Posted 09 October 2013 - 01:13 PM

Who says the Reds - a very small market - have made a strong effort to extend him? They have a lot of salary committed in future years already, not including Chapman and Latos, the latter of whom will take serious money to retain.

Pitchers are aware of the injury risks they face, and Bailey would almost certainly take a fair extension offer (though it is possible he wouldn't want to play for some teams).

#28 nicksaviking

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Posted 09 October 2013 - 01:26 PM

Who says the Reds - a very small market - have made a strong effort to extend him? They have a lot of salary committed in future years already, not including Chapman and Latos, the latter of whom will take serious money to retain.

Pitchers are aware of the injury risks they face, and Bailey would almost certainly take a fair extension offer (though it is possible he wouldn't want to play for some teams).


Pitchers are also aware of the inflated contracts middle of the road arms get in free agency, and with another year like the one he just had, he likely knows he's in line for a contract closer to Anibal Sanchez than he is to Kevin Correia.

Mark Sheldon at MLB.com says he isn't interested in an extension. From my experience, our wishes and dreams for quality pitching always gets kicked to the curb as logical reports like this are generally accurate. Besides, Bailey willing to sign an extension would create a pretty big bidding war the Twins would be unlikely willing to win, and it would cost Meyer, and likely much, much more.

#29 Siehbiscuit

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Posted 09 October 2013 - 01:46 PM

The Twins cannot afford to trade Meyer or May, IMO. They are too close to MLB to be moved now. I think if the Twins did offer him a 5-6 year deal at $13-14 per he would likely sign. Bailey was always on the verge of breaking out and finally has. For these guys it is all about the $$$$. The Twins would need to show him that they are committed to him. In 5-6 years when his deal is winding down Meyer, Gibson, May, Stewart, Berrios, etc will just be getting into the arb process. Bailey is a good pitcher that as he hits his prime could and should be our #2 (behind Meyer). When Stewart gets up here in two years he can work his way up into the top 2 conversation. You can trade or draft for young pitching. Be aggressive, TWINS!!

#30 diehardtwinsfan

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Posted 09 October 2013 - 01:56 PM

I don't have a problem going after him, but I don't see why the Twins would trade a top 100 prospect and another prospect for a guy who is going to be around up until the point when the next wave gets good.. and in so doing they weaken the next wave. This makes sense for a contending team, not for the Twins.