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Souhan: Twins Must Pay For Pitching

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#1 John Bonnes

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Posted 17 September 2013 - 09:21 PM

Jim Souhan suggests that the Twins take their chances in the starting pitching free agent market - because it's worth the risk:

Competitively, a premier pitcher could hasten rebuilding and, if that occurred sooner rather than later, a premier pitcher could provide leadership for young arms arriving in the majors, and give the Twins a chance to win Game 1 of any playoff series, which is a big deal in a format in which a playoff series might last only one game.


Souhan: Twins must open checkbook for pitching, or losing will go on | Star Tribune

I'd suggest that the reason to so is a little more simple: because they don't really have any other options to turn it around, other than hope and pray the way they did this year. I'd actually say they need to look hard at getting two such guys, because I don't see one real difference maker in this class.

#2 Twins Fan From Afar

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Posted 17 September 2013 - 09:23 PM

Agreed, John. I'd say $25 million in starting pitching this off-season.
No joke.
Worst case: the "surplus" of starting pitching we've heard about, but never before seen.
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#3 jorgenswest

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Posted 17 September 2013 - 09:35 PM

The best shot at a pitcher is Tanaka. While other pitchers may have better alternatives than Minnesota, Tanaka will have one option if the Twins win his posting bid. Can 40 million win this bid?

#4 maxisagod

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Posted 17 September 2013 - 09:55 PM

I'd actually say they need to look hard at getting two such guys, because I don't see one real difference maker in this class.


I'd say they need to sign three again. 2 high performers and 1 injury/ low performer gamble.

#5 frightwig

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Posted 17 September 2013 - 10:02 PM

They probably have 3 open spots in next April's rotation. Correia is likely to be back, and although Albers is probably just the new Diamond, I imagine that he's earned a spot to start next season. Beyond that, either Ryan has to sign 2 free agents and use the #5 spot to test a youngster, or he'll have to throw a few of Gibson/May/Meyer/Worley/Diamond/Darnell into the pool all at once and see who can swim. I doubt that he's going to want a rotation of prospects, so I'd look for Ryan to be shopping this winter. Let's just hope that his FA signings aren't 2 more guys like Correia and Pelfrey out of the bargain bin.

#6 Kwak

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Posted 17 September 2013 - 10:02 PM

Smith asked for $30MM--and was replaced! If Ryan asks for $30MM does he get a bonus? Or a cacphony of laughter?

#7 beckmt

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Posted 17 September 2013 - 10:22 PM

Smith asked for $30MM--and was replaced! If Ryan asks for $30MM does he get a bonus? Or a cacphony of laughter?

Smith's starting point was much higher. I agree with at least 2 starting pitchers from the upper end of talent. It will be difficult

#8 Oxtung

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Posted 17 September 2013 - 11:37 PM

No matter what tier Ryan is signing from I don't think he'll sign more than 2 pitchers to major league contracts this off season. Correia and a lefty are virtual locks (Albers, Diamond, Hernandez) and I think Gibson is very likely.

#9 Marta Shearing

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Posted 18 September 2013 - 01:41 AM

Is that really what happened with Billy Smith? He asked for more payroll and they fired him?

#10 clutterheart

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Posted 18 September 2013 - 05:15 AM

Is that really what happened with Billy Smith? He asked for more payroll and they fired him?


Hindsight speculation. But they publicly said Smith was not going to be fired, despite his bad trades and poor performance. Then the scuttlebutt was the FO was not enamored with Smith's offseason plan and they fired him.
Then Ryan proceeded to let FA's like Cuddy and Kubel walk.

Maybe that was the right choice because they were able to get a few extra picks and Cuddy was turned into Berrios.

But from appearances Smith's plan was to retain guys and spend money, the FO said no.

#11 clutterheart

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Posted 18 September 2013 - 05:27 AM

Assuming their physical checks out these are a few Free Agents I would overpay for in terms of dollars & years.
Scott Kazmir
Ubaldo Jimenez
Ricky Nolasco
Matt Garza

Edited by clutterheart, 18 September 2013 - 05:37 AM.


#12 old nurse

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Posted 18 September 2013 - 05:30 AM

Hindsight speculation. But they publicly said Smith was not going to be fired, despite his bad trades and poor performance. Then the scuttlebutt was the FO was not enamored with Smith's offseason plan and they fired him.
Then Ryan proceeded to let FA's like Cuddy and Kubel walk.

Maybe that was the right choice because they were able to get a few extra picks and Cuddy was turned into Berrios.

But from appearances Smith's plan was to retain guys and spend money, the FO said no.


Actually Berrios and Chargois for Cuddyer
Luke Bard for Kubel
only time will tell if it was a good choice

Edited by old nurse, 18 September 2013 - 05:32 AM.


#13 Shane Wahl

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Posted 18 September 2013 - 06:53 AM

Ervin Santana (3 years), Phil Hughes (2 years), and Johan Santana (1 year + option) would be my choices. All incentives included and this probably amounts to maxing at $30 in 2014 and 2015.

Jimenez is also interesting.

#14 Shane Wahl

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Posted 18 September 2013 - 06:54 AM

Actually Berrios and Chargois for Cuddyer
Luke Bard for Kubel
only time will tell if it was a good choice


I have sincere doubts that Bard and Chargois are ever reaching the majors.

#15 mike wants wins

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Posted 18 September 2013 - 07:35 AM

Didn't we have this same conversation a year ago? What is different this time? Well, other than we are pretty sure Hendriks is a AAAA pitcher?
Lighten up Francis....

#16 Blackjack

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Posted 18 September 2013 - 07:42 AM

When was the last time that Terry Ryan and the Twins signed a big buck free agent pitcher??? It’s not going to happen. He'll continue to bottom feed, sign an 'inning eater' and maybe a reclamation project, but he won't sign a high priced pitcher until the rest of the team is competitive in a couple of years and that high priced pitcher will push them over the top ala Jack Morris.

I don't think the Twins see the urgency to spend big bucks on a pitcher in order to appease the fan base; they're counting on the all-star game and the arrival of stud prospects Sano and Buxton to keep fans interested.

Starting rotation next year will be a combination of Correia, Gibson, Diamond, bargain basement signee - with Worley, Hendricks, Hernandez, and other similar pitchers fighting it out for the last spot.

#17 ThePuck

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Posted 18 September 2013 - 07:48 AM

When was the last time that Terry Ryan and the Twins signed a big buck free agent pitcher??? It’s not going to happen. He'll continue to bottom feed, sign an 'inning eater' and maybe a reclamation project, but he won't sign a high priced pitcher until the rest of the team is competitive in a couple of years and that high priced pitcher will push them over the top ala Jack Morris.


I don't even see him doing it then simply because he's been in that situation in the 2000s a couple times and didn't do it. I understand the argument about him not having the same resources back then, but I think there's more to it than that.
Just remember: You put the lime IN the coconut. Only THEN, can you drink it all up.

#18 old nurse

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Posted 18 September 2013 - 07:49 AM

I have sincere doubts that Bard and Chargois are ever reaching the majors.


Chargois will be 23 when he comes back from TJ. He had a good first year. There is plenty of time for him to develop. Recovery rate was 90%. The procedure itself is not likely career ending.
Maybe Bard is brittle, don't know. Neither has a body of work that would say one way or another that they are misses.

Ervin Santana will either sign with KC, or get a 4 year contract. Hughes, it depends on who is interested in him. The enticement to get him might require 3 years.
Johan might retire rather than start over at the bottom with a minimal deal. If it is a competition/center stage kind of thing he would have to have howie's well documented belief in the prospects (and get to lead the parade) to sign here.

#19 Oldgoat_MN

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Posted 18 September 2013 - 08:41 AM

1. I believe that the Twins really will sign a pitcher this year that causes us to raise our eyebrows. In a good way.
2. Why do people keep listing Matt Garza as a possible Twins pitcher? One of the most frustrating things about the coming off-season is this very bad idea. Nothing good could come of this.
3. Sure would be fun to see the Twins get Tanaka. Does anyone know when that all plays out?

Edited by Oldgoat_MN, 18 September 2013 - 08:56 AM.
tone it down, Oldgoat.....


#20 Boom Boom

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Posted 18 September 2013 - 08:49 AM

Souhan could have written this article in September of 2011 or 2012, dragged it out of mothballs, changed the date and a few relevant player names, and reposted it.

#21 nicksaviking

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Posted 18 September 2013 - 09:27 AM

Johan might retire rather than start over at the bottom with a minimal deal. If it is a competition/center stage kind of thing he would have to have howie's well documented belief in the prospects (and get to lead the parade) to sign here.


I agree with your take on years for Ervin Santana and Hughes and I also think Chargois still has a decent shot.

However, I don't think Johan Santana would have actually had the surgery if he wasn't going to attempt a comeback. I'd still be interested in him as the 2014 Zumaya/Harden flier.

#22 Siehbiscuit

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Posted 18 September 2013 - 09:41 AM

Ervin Santana (5year 75Million) may get the biggest deal of any FA pitcher. Garza has lost himself a lot of money with his performance this year. Garza wouldn't even consider coming back to MN.

I would love to see the Twins splurge in FA this year, but it won't happen. I agree that Gibson (#2), Correia (#3) will be automatically be given rotation spots. I would love to see a bounce back from Worley (#4) as well. The last two would go to Albers or Diamond (#5). I would most like to see the Twins spend big on Ubaldo Jimenez. Market will likely be around 4-5 years and a 48-60 Million deal. I think the Twins need to 5 years and 65 to land him. He has the most upside of any FA pitcher and knows the central division. Kazmir on a 2 year deal possibly (injury history).

Offensively, Mike Napoli at 1B on a 2yr/$28m deal. He will handle 1B and also do some DH'ing. Shin-Soo Choo as our CF and leadoff hitter for 5 years and $75 million. He will slide to a corner spot and bat in the two hole once Buxton arrives. That's $42 in three players that substantially upgrades our offense provides a potential front line starter.

#23 howieramone1406390264

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Posted 18 September 2013 - 11:23 AM

Ervin Santana (5year 75Million) may get the biggest deal of any FA pitcher. Garza has lost himself a lot of money with his performance this year. Garza wouldn't even consider coming back to MN.

I would love to see the Twins splurge in FA this year, but it won't happen. I agree that Gibson (#2), Correia (#3) will be automatically be given rotation spots. I would love to see a bounce back from Worley (#4) as well. The last two would go to Albers or Diamond (#5). I would most like to see the Twins spend big on Ubaldo Jimenez. Market will likely be around 4-5 years and a 48-60 Million deal. I think the Twins need to 5 years and 65 to land him. He has the most upside of any FA pitcher and knows the central division. Kazmir on a 2 year deal possibly (injury history).

Offensively, Mike Napoli at 1B on a 2yr/$28m deal. He will handle 1B and also do some DH'ing. Shin-Soo Choo as our CF and leadoff hitter for 5 years and $75 million. He will slide to a corner spot and bat in the two hole once Buxton arrives. That's $42 in three players that substantially upgrades our offense provides a potential front line starter.


Like your ideas, but can't see spending money on an outfielder. Arcia, Buxton, Hicks, and Presly will be more than adequate. Spend the money on starting pitchers.

#24 jm3319

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Posted 18 September 2013 - 12:29 PM

Souhan could have written this article in September of 2011 or 2012, dragged it out of mothballs, changed the date and a few relevant player names, and reposted it.


The same could be said for like 10-20% of the articles posted at TD. "What went wrong this year" "What to do this offseason after a terrible season" "When's the right time to move Mauer to first?" "Fire Gardy" "Time for a new front office" "Why is payroll shrinking" "Plouffe is really frustrating"

Plenty of recurring themes when the team is awful and doesn't appear to be doing much about it, sadly.

#25 Willihammer

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Posted 18 September 2013 - 12:52 PM

The same could be said for like 10-20% of the articles posted at TD. "What went wrong this year" "What to do this offseason after a terrible season" "When's the right time to move Mauer to first?" "Fire Gardy" "Time for a new front office" "Why is payroll shrinking" "Plouffe is really frustrating"


Its almost as if we're either on something or onto something here

#26 lyndon

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Posted 20 September 2013 - 03:17 PM

When I first saw the title of the article I thought, DARN right they should pay. Look at what they've done! Punish them! Then I realized that it was referring to money. HAHA

#27 Shane Wahl

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Posted 20 September 2013 - 05:21 PM

MLB Trade Rumors expects 3/39 for Jimenez, 2/24 for Arroyo, and 2/17 for Feldman. 5/65 for Jimenez seems to be pretty out there . . .

#28 old nurse

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Posted 20 September 2013 - 07:02 PM

MLB Trade Rumors expects 3/39 for Jimenez, 2/24 for Arroyo, and 2/17 for Feldman. 5/65 for Jimenez seems to be pretty out there . . .

Before making predictions you should have all of the data. Jimenez has been impressive after a rough start to the season. If Cleveland makes the playoffs and Jimenez carries them to the championship series performing at a high level somebody is going to give him a qualifying offer and somebody probably will plunk down a 5/65.

#29 cmb0252

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Posted 20 September 2013 - 07:16 PM

Before making predictions you should have all of the data. Jimenez has been impressive after a rough start to the season. If Cleveland makes the playoffs and Jimenez carries them to the championship series performing at a high level somebody is going to give him a qualifying offer and somebody probably will plunk down a 5/65.


Can a player who turns down a player option get a qualified offer? I have no idea. If not, while I still can't see him getting 5/56, I could see him getting more than mlbtraderumors guess. With the new draft rules teams will pay a little extra not to lose a pick.

#30 jorgenswest

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Posted 20 September 2013 - 07:57 PM

He will certainly get a qualifying offer which he may accept. He would be gambling on having a second strong season by accepting and larger contract in free agency.

The Twins will have to beat the market by offering more years or dollars. I would prefer they increase the dollars perhaps to 48 for 3 years. I can't see him retaining his velocity for four more years (or even 3), but I hope they can get two good years and have him at the back of the rotation in year 3.

All pitchers are a risky proposition as they age. In Ubaldo's case even riskier with his poor pitching the previous two years and lack of control to balance any loss in velocity.